Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[rockymtnoyster]

 

[MJF]

Any update on Hogberg injury?

Didn't participate in practice today. Just worked with the goalie coach before practice. With the Isles not scheduled for any B2B games this week I'm not expecting Hogberg back during until the west coast trip next week.

 

[The Real JT]

It was only 4 games so yeah it’s not that big of a deal but I still disagree with your take.

Brock was only one of 4 forwards on the team with 0 points and he was a team worst -3. As much as I like him on the Isles I have to be honest. He looked old, slow and a little overmatched.

4 forwards is a third of the team. I watched two of the games and just saw a 2nd line center playing against the top talent of the world and not looking good or bad.... just average. Even if you think he looked slow.... it's the top talent in the world. Hughes was fast and agile but still didn't get much done either.

I get the sense that you’re in the contingent that on some level takes offense at anyone that has a critical eye towards our GM or any of the veteran players.

Don’t get me wrong. I think Brock Nelson is a talented player, but it’s quite likely that we’ve seen the best of his play and he’ll be a depreciating asset going forward. Are we a better team this year and next year without him? Probably so but frankly I don’t think we are in a Cup contending position to benefit from having him on the squad in the near term. If we let the other scenario play out, we get valuable assets in a trade for him, get younger and don’t have to deal with a high veteran AAV deal that we might regret in 2 to 4 years.

Long story short. IMO he needs to be dealt before the trade deadline. That’s especially important for a team that is light on younger NHL players, prospects and draft capital.

 

[Glory Days]

It never did. The draft lottery started in 1995 and from day one you could lose the #1 overall pick to a team a few picks behind you.

And for those out there that seem to think if you try to tank and don't get the #1 overall pick, here's a list of players draft in the #2-5 range in roughly the last 15-20 years:

• Eric Staal
• Bobby Ryan
• Carey Price
• Evgeni Malkin
• Blake Wheeler
• Jordan Staal
• Jonathan Toews
• Nicklas Backstrom
• Viktor Hedman
• Matt Duchene
• Gabriel Landeskog
• Jonathan Huberdeau
• Adam Larsson
• Aleksander Barkov
• Seth Jones
• Elias Lindholm
• Sam Reinhart
• Leon Draisaitl
• Sam Bennett
• Jack Eichel
• Dylan Strome
• Mitch Marner
• Noah Hanafin
• Pierre Luc-Dubois
• Miro Heiskinen
• Cale Makar
• Elias Petterson
• Andrei Svechnikov
• Brady Tkachuk

Guess if you decide to tank and don't get the #1 overall pick you're screwed.

I don’t think even you would call half the players on your list above elite players. So a team needs to tank, have a very good scouting department and have a very good pool of prospects to draft from. I just think there is a lot of luck involved in that process. Teams can also trade draft picks to acquire elite talent. Florida and Vegas are recent examples. I don’t disagree with your premise that you need elite players to win. However you seem locked in that the only way to do so is by tanking and drafting. That’s where I disagree. I want a new GM (and entire front office) that has an eye for talent and can draft and/or trade for elite talent.

 

[SI]

I get the sense that you’re in the contingent that on some level takes offense at anyone that has a critical eye towards our GM or any of the veteran players.

Don’t get me wrong. I think Brock Nelson is a talented player, but it’s quite likely that we’ve seen the best of his play and he’ll be a depreciating asset going forward. Are we a better team this year and next year without him? Probably so but frankly I don’t think we are in a Cup contending position to benefit from having him on the squad in the near term. If we let the other scenario play out, we get valuable assets in a trade for him, get younger and don’t have to deal with a high veteran AAV deal that we might regret in 2 to 4 years.

Long story short. IMO he needs to be dealt before the trade deadline. That’s especially important for a team that is light on younger NHL players, prospects and draft capital.

I'm not sure anyone would disagree with you - Nelson's best hockey is most likely behind him, however, I think he still has quality hockey left in him... he is shooting the lowest % he has shot in a few seasons. I think most here would be fine if he were to be resigned (on a decent term/AAV). Again, for him, if you bring back Nelson - the team should move on from Palmieri. The contract should not be over 3 years and certainly not over 7 AAV. Just a reminder the Cap in 2 seasons will be 113m. 7m AAV contract is not going to feel that tough to deal with.

If he were to be moved, then I do wonder what those assets coming back would be, unlikely it will be a first since most acquiring teams do not have one - ala Minny and Dallas. IMO, I'd move Nelson - I'm starting to get on the Riley Heidt bandwagon. Heidt and Stramel for Nelson (and if necessary maybe someone like Dufour to balance).

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

However you seem locked in that the only way to do so

Most people are like this.

 

[YearlyLottery]

What a joke. You're moving the goal posts and you know it. Whether or not you just want to argue just to argue or are totally in denial, here are the facts:

1. Going from total rebuild to Cup contender usually takes at least 4-5 years and 2-4 drafts (if all goes well). So since the "current lottery era" was changed for the 2021 draft we would still need to wait a few years to have this data.
2. The most recent changes are minor at best and if anything protect those teams at the top.
3. So nothing is dramatically new overall since the NHL implemented the lottery system in 1995...And we still have tons of data that almost every team that's won a cup since then had (multiple) high 1st round picks...As a result of being terrible the year before.

Some People are seriously triggered when they hear the word "rebuild." Let's just stop calling it that. Let's just say that the most proven way to increase your odds at becoming a Cup contender is to have multiple high draft picks (and not haae a GM/scouting department F those picks up).

If you don't want the Isles to go down this route - Totally cool. I respect your opinion. But just stop playing games like getting higher draft picks isn't a proven way to increase your odds of winning in the NHL (or most any sport).

So you cannot give an answer to my question of giving me one team that has went through a full on rebuild getting multiple top draft picks for years and winning the Cup? Can you give me a team that is a contender using your method?

Until you can I do not believe my opinion is denial nor moving the goal posts. I actually gave details for what I would do. I am simply asking for some evidence of why your method would work on today's NHL.

The bolded is not proven by the way in this current era. You spent the first half of your post explaining why the lottery did not really change yet contradicting yourself saying we need another few years because of the lottery change to give a detailed analysis.

If the lottery did not change much as you stated in 1-3, then it begs the question why you are unable to give a list of teams who a classic rebuild as you are suggesting worked for.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Seems like Reilly could be back after the trade deadline. Gonna be running 9D at practice lmao

 

[periferal]

I don’t think even you would call half the players on your list above elite players. So a team needs to tank, have a very good scouting department and have a very good pool of prospects to draft from. I just think there is a lot of luck involved in that process. Teams can also trade draft picks to acquire elite talent. Florida and Vegas are recent examples. I don’t disagree with your premise that you need elite players to win. However you seem locked in that the only way to do so is by tanking and drafting. That’s where I disagree. I want a new GM (and entire front office) that has an eye for talent and can draft and/or trade for elite talent.

I respect this post, but you need to "carry the one" in terms of trading elite talent. You mentioned Florida and I can only assume you're talking about the Matthew Takchuk trade. Well Florida gave up:

• Jonathan Huberdeau
• MacKenzie Weegar
• Cole Schwindt
• 2025 first round pick

In addition to being a haul the Islanders probably couldn't match (not to mention they couldn't even afford Tkachuk because of what Lou did to the Isles cap situation), but Huberdeau was the 3rd overall pick which further supports the idea that that you need to draft high and draft well.

And of course you have to get fortunate that the year(s) you're drafting high have great talent, but if a draft is terrible then guess what...You're going to be drafting back at the top again until you do it on great talent.

But bottom line...We're being way too cavalier about how the Penguins, Blackhawks, Kings, Avalanche, Lightning, and Panthers were built over the past 20 years. Yes - You have to get some bounces, but all those teams have core players who were top picks. There are no guarantees in life, but I guarantee you the draft is the best way to build a (perennial) Cup contender is thought top picks. Equally as important...I can also guarantee that this Isles core will not being seeing the Cup (and especially with this GM).

 

[doublechili]

I respect this post, but you need to "carry the one" in terms of trading elite talent. You mentioned Florida and I can only assume you're talking about the Matthew Takchuk trade. Well Florida gave up:

• Jonathan Huberdeau
• MacKenzie Weegar
• Cole Schwindt
• 2025 first round pick

In addition to being a haul the Islanders probably couldn't match (not to mention they couldn't even afford Tkachuk because of what Lou did to the Isles cap situation), but Huberdeau was the 3rd overall pick which further supports the idea that that you need to draft high and draft well.

And of course you have to get fortunate that the year(s) you're drafting high have great talent, but if a draft is terrible then guess what...You're going to be drafting back at the top again until you do it on great talent.

But bottom line...We're being way too cavalier about how the Penguins, Blackhawks, Kings, Avalanche, Lightning, and Panthers were built over the past 20 years. Yes - You have to get some bounces, but all those teams have core players who were top picks. There are no guarantees in life, but I guarantee you that the best way to build a (perennial) CUp contender is thought top picks. Equally as important...I can also guarantee that this Isles core will not being seeing the Cup (and especially with this GM).

I'm not sure, but my recollection is that Huberdeau had borderline negative value at the time of that trade. And, I think Tkachuk basically forced a trade to FLA, so nobody was "matching" anything. CGY was trying to make the best of a bad situation.

 

[periferal]

So you cannot give an answer to my question of giving me one team that has went through a full on rebuild getting multiple top draft picks for years and winning the Cup? Can you give me a team that is a contender using your method?

Until you can I do not believe my opinion is denial nor moving the goal posts. I actually gave details for what I would do. I am simply asking for some evidence of why your method would work on today's NHL.

The bolded is not proven by the way in this current era. You spent the first half of your post explaining why the lottery did not really change yet contradicting yourself saying we need another few years because of the lottery change to give a detailed analysis.

If the lottery did not change much as you stated in 1-3, then it begs the question why you are unable to give a list of teams who a classic rebuild as you are suggesting worked for.

Serious question...Do you read all my posts or just my replies to you? Because I've addressed which teams have done a rebuild through the lottery multiple times over the past few weeks. Here's one of those recent posts:

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/roster-rumors-speculation-trade-talk-2024-25-re-tool-re-group-re-mix-re-build.2969583/post-198950929

 

[periferal]

I'm not sure, but my recollection is that Huberdeau had borderline negative value at the time of that trade. And, I think Tkachuk basically forced a trade to FLA, so nobody was "matching" anything. CGY was trying to make the best of a bad situation.

This is the problem DC. Why would you assume a contrarian viewpoint unless it supports your opinion and not fact. That is simply revisionist history where you're wrong about Huberdeau.

Not only was Huberdeau coming off a 115 point season in 2022 with the Panthers, but less than a month after he was traded to Calgary he signed an 8 year/84 million dollar contract extension with the Flames.

So again...The Panthers gave up a ton, Huberdeau had (very) positive value, you need to draft high and draft well, and the Isles would not have been able to afford Tkachuk (regardless if he would've come here or not).

 

[BelovedIsles]

That's why a team like the Islanders has to take a gamble on trading for players like Pettersson. At his best he's a high-end goal scorer, the type who never signs here as a UFA. I would take that risk in an even-up trade.

Not at 11.5 per. 9? Sure, I’d take that gamble.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Serious question...Do you read all my posts or just my replies to you? Because I've addressed which teams have done a rebuild through the lottery multiple times over the past few weeks. Here's one of those recent posts:

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/roster-rumors-speculation-trade-talk-2024-25-re-tool-re-group-re-mix-re-build.2969583/post-198950929

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think mods read all posts as a part of their responsibilities.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Serious question...Do you read all my posts or just my replies to you? Because I've addressed which teams have done a rebuild through the lottery multiple times over the past few weeks. Here's one of those recent posts:

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/roster-rumors-speculation-trade-talk-2024-25-re-tool-re-group-re-mix-re-build.2969583/post-198950929

Not only did I read that post but I replied to it stating how every one of those teams won in the old lottery era aside from Vegas which was a special case.