OT: Spring has sprung...

[Gras]

i waited for the market to settle down before i started looking. in the summer people were rabid, paying 50k over for houses that aren’t even really that nice. once school starts families leave the marketplace, and no one wants to move in the middle of winter.

i think at least in the city proper there was a lot of panic buying which was exacerbated by extremely low rates. seems like all of the dumb buyers have either already bought for stupid prices or simply don’t want to buy during the fall/winter

to comment on the overall macro picture, i imagine rates will stay low for some time, maybe upwards of another year or two. not buying the inflation narrative that seems to be spewed out ad nauseum by the major business news outlets. if i had to guess, it’s more a combination of a.) catch up inflation from the deflationary period at the beginning of the panic and b.) temporary supply chain disruptions caused by virus restrictions.

the fed won’t do anything drastic without signaling so well ahead of time. i mean, look at how long it took them start tapering bond purchases. and we’re only talking 15 billion less than 100 billion+ they’ve been buying each month to backstop lenders.

either way, definitely better to refi sooner rather than later if you have the cash for closing costs. could save you 30-50k over the life of the loan if your previous rate was in the 4-5 range like most were prior to the pandemic. i just locked in 3.2 on a west side double. prolly not ever going to get anything better than that

I bought in 2014 4.25@30, refinanced March of 2020 3.375@20, now getting 2.5@15.

Inflation has been a concern way before the pandemic shut things down, QE has caused the inflation to be masked by the rising Dow and S&P numbers, but now its finally hitting hard goods, the Fed already said before they were gonna raise rates and then the stock market started going down so they backed away from it, taking on new debt is certainly a smart play ahead of inflation though.

 

[valet]

I bought in 2014 4.25@30, refinanced March of 2020 3.375@20, now getting 2.5@15.

Inflation has been a concern way before the pandemic shut things down, QE has caused the inflation to be masked by the rising Dow and S&P numbers, but now its finally hitting hard goods, the Fed already said before they were gonna raise rates and then the stock market started going down so they backed away from it, taking on new debt is certainly a smart play ahead of inflation though.

2.5 is basically right at 10 year forward inflation estimates, so you’re basically getting a free loan. well done.

not sure what you mean by QE masking inflation. QE doesn’t mask inflation, it is actually an inflationary force. if anything QE is what has kept inflation in the 1.5-2% range annually over the last 10 or so years, and especially during the pandemic.

the fed has never said they’re going to raise rates. i don’t know where you got that from but it is not accurate information. go look at the fomc dot plots. it’s taken nearly 2 years since they lowered the funds rate to the effective lower bound for even half of the fed committee members to agree that rates could be raised 15-25 basis points by the end of 2023.

inflation was NOT a concern before the pandemic. the concern was deflation, as has been the case since 2008.

equity markets, i’m not even going to comment on that. it’s a whole beast of it’s own that doesn’t really attach itself neatly to the global macro picture

cool discussion

 

[HaNotsri]

Re: the bolded, are you intentionally ignoring that Eichel said he didn't want to be in Buffalo, i.e., essentially a personal decision which ignored the business side of honoring his contract? Are you also ignoring all the perquisites or appeasements given Jack which, at the time, were way more personal concessions by the Pegulas than business decisions? Captaincy. Firing Bylsma. Signing Taylor Hall.

Believe what you wish, but I don't find either the "potential bad PR" angle, or in any way painting Eichel as a white knight, as credible. That doesn't absolve Pegulas from the state of the franchise, but the state of the franchise doesn't by default impugn the Pegulas as callous cold bastards for the 2021 Eichel injury saga.

Major point: We have absolutely no knowledge of his pain: magnitude, duration, whether it is constant, intermittent, conditional on certain motions, or other physiological changes, manageable vs. intolerable, etc.

In fact, I would argue since he was not in any form of brace/ immobilizer, and his issue was certainly not life-threatening, it's <50% likely his pain was constantly acute to the extent it was debilitating. As vocal as Fish and/or the doctors who sided with Jack's desire to get the ADR were in order to sway public opinion towards Jack's side or to sway negotiation pressure against the Sabres, I think "constant pain" would have been stated at some point, and then repeated over and over again in the court of public opinion. It's what would happen in a courtroom to garner sympathy to a victim in a criminal or civil case. Did we ever hear it? I think not.

Minor point: I don't understand the use of the word/noun "frill" in that sentence; the syntax implies it's an adjective, but it doesn't make sense in context. Typo?

I'm speculating PSE is glad to be through with Jack Eichel, and any badmouthing would have been a glad price to pay.

You had / have a good dad. With or without plastic sheeting on top of the ground underneath the ice? Sounds like without. They were / are done both ways in USA.

No sheet. Pretty thick lawn with dead grass but he was out watering all night for a week or so. He's still a really fun dad to have, he's going to accompany me in church on the piano/organ for the 2nd advent. We've picked some really old hardcore psalms that have been removed from modern psalm books, going full fire and fury-era on the congregation.
We're both open atheists but it's just too much fun singing in church and they don't have any local christian musicians so they keep asking us.
We'll end with some happier songs more fitting for the occasion.

 

[Gras]

2.5 is basically right at 10 year forward inflation estimates, so you’re basically getting a free loan. well done.

not sure what you mean by QE masking inflation. QE doesn’t mask inflation, it is actually an inflationary force. if anything QE is what has kept inflation in the 1.5-2% range annually over the last 10 or so years, and especially during the pandemic.

the fed has never said they’re going to raise rates. i don’t know where you got that from but it is not accurate information. go look at the fomc dot plots. it’s taken nearly 2 years since they lowered the funds rate to the effective lower bound for even half of the fed committee members to agree that rates could be raised 15-25 basis points by the end of 2023.

inflation was NOT a concern before the pandemic. the concern was deflation, as has been the case since 2008.

equity markets, i’m not even going to comment on that. it’s a whole beast of it’s own that doesn’t really attach itself neatly to the global macro picture

cool discussion

QE didnt mask inflation, most of the inflation caused by QE has been a major driver of the stock market, so all of the effect of inflation has been there and hadn't hit the hard goods market like it is today.

Runaway inflation like we could see now wasnt a concern prior to the pandemic, but QE has just been feeding a bubble that will deflate at somepoint, the question is it going to burst and crash or will it be manageable.

Im also making 9% APR on stablecoins which are very low risk.

 

[valet]

QE didnt mask inflation, most of the inflation caused by QE has been a major driver of the stock market, so all of the effect of inflation has been there and hadn't hit the hard goods market like it is today.

Runaway inflation like we could see now wasnt a concern prior to the pandemic, but QE has just been feeding a bubble that will deflate at somepoint, the question is it going to burst and crash or will it be manageable.

Im also making 9% APR on stablecoins which are very low risk.

what’s the bubble? i see a lot of bubble arguments floating around the internet and with colleagues at work, but no one seems to be able to provide a rational explanation for their use of the term.

what happened in 2000 with the nasdaq, maybe that was a bubble, but didn’t all of those investors turn out to be right? the likes of google, amazon, microsoft, apple, etc are dominant global companies with hundreds of billions of dollars on their balance sheets and revenue growing on the order of 15-25% yoy. how is that a bubble? i think they’re just dominant companies well positioned to continue dominating their respective sectors of the marketplace. ie the valuations are well justified

2008, now that was a bubble. tons of bad loans given to people with poor credit and shakey incomes. but today it’s not like that at all. consumer credit is the strongest it’s ever been for people entering the housing market. we are just so rich as a country that we can afford it, and fundamentals agree with that logic.

i think what you’re trying to do is equate inflation to equity prices. but higher levels of inflation actually hurt forward earnings. so higher inflation doesn’t equal higher valuations, it actually lowers them. not sure how much you know about financial modeling but that is a tidbit to go read about if you’re interested

 

[Gras]

what’s the bubble? i see a lot of bubble arguments floating around the internet and with colleagues at work, but no one seems to be able to provide a rational explanation for their use of the term.

what happened in 2000 with the nasdaq, maybe that was a bubble, but didn’t all of those investors turn out to be right? the likes of google, amazon, microsoft, apple, etc are dominant global companies with hundreds of billions of dollars on their balance sheets and revenue growing on the order of 15-25% yoy. how is that a bubble? i think they’re just dominant companies well positioned to continue dominating their respective sectors of the marketplace. ie the valuations are well justified

2008, now that was a bubble. tons of bad loans given to people with poor credit and shakey incomes. but today it’s not like that at all. consumer credit is the strongest it’s ever been for people entering the housing market. we are just so rich as a country that we can afford it, and fundamentals agree with that logic.

i think what you’re trying to do is equate inflation to equity prices. but higher levels of inflation actually hurt forward earnings. so higher inflation doesn’t equal higher valuations, it actually lowers them. not sure how much you know about financial modeling but that is a tidbit to go read about if you’re interested

The bubble is when unnatural market forces drive malinvestment, like what we saw with the housing bubble where post 9/11 to try and stave off a recession dropped interest rates and kept them too low for too long which fed the housing bubble, now with the perpetual QE since 2008, which has been driving the stock market higher and higher, without QE the stock market wouldn't be as high as it is today.

It would have been a tougher pill to swallow but everything should have been allowed to do a proper reset in 2008.

The repercussions are still to come from what was done in 20/21 with all the newly minted money, and we still may see a major crash in commercial real estate.

The people hoping for the residential housing market aren't going to see prices drop all that much.

 

[valet]

The bubble is when unnatural market forces drive malinvestment, like what we saw with the housing bubble where post 9/11 to try and stave off a recession dropped interest rates and kept them too low for too long which fed the housing bubble, now with the perpetual QE since 2008, which has been driving the stock market higher and higher, without QE the stock market wouldn't be as high as it is today.

It would have been a tougher pill to swallow but everything should have been allowed to do a proper reset in 2008.

The repercussions are still to come from what was done in 20/21 with all the newly minted money, and we still may see a major crash in commercial real estate.

The people hoping for the residential housing market aren't going to see prices drop all that much.

you're making a lot of bold assumptions here (especially about QE) but not really explaining your arguments. I'm just curious on what basis you're trying to say these things?

monetary policy is a very complicated thing, especially in terms of the USD. it's not as simple as 'printing money is bad'. there is a whole political-social framework and global power structure under which these types of decisions get made. could you just explain a little bit more why you're saying any of this?

with all due respect, most of the points you're trying to make just seem like things someone saw on yahoo finance or Bloomberg or CNBC (outlets that scare people because that is how they make money) and regurgitated without thinking too critically

 

[Gras]

you're making a lot of bold assumptions here (especially about QE) but not really explaining your arguments. I'm just curious on what basis you're trying to say these things?

monetary policy is a very complicated thing, especially in terms of the USD. it's not as simple as 'printing money is bad'. there is a whole political-social framework and global power structure under which these types of decisions get made. could you just explain a little bit more why you're saying any of this?

with all due respect, most of the points you're trying to make just seem like things someone saw on yahoo finance or Bloomberg or CNBC (outlets that scare people because that is how they make money) and regurgitated without thinking too critically

Ive been against QE pretty much since the beginning of it, as a matter of monetary policy, is would much rather have the market set the interest rates, not unaccountable, unelected members of a private institution.

When it would come to the market setting a rate thats determined by term+risk, when the interest rate is below what the market says it should be that invited more risky imvestment than what there would be if the rate was higher.

If you look at college loans as an example, those interest rates are way below what they should be, along with being government backed and guaranteed it has allowed the shools to keep raising tuition rates.

As far as the global aspect with USD acting as the reserve currency letting inflation drastically devalue the dollar could lead to something else being chosen as the reserve, which could have a massive impact on our economy or other global political ramifications.

And thats without getting in to fiscal policy which is a whole nother animal altogether.

 

[valet]

Ive been against QE pretty much since the beginning of it, as a matter of monetary policy, is would much rather have the market set the interest rates, not unaccountable, unelected members of a private institution.

When it would come to the market setting a rate thats determined by term+risk, when the interest rate is below what the market says it should be that invited more risky imvestment than what there would be if the rate was higher.

If you look at college loans as an example, those interest rates are way below what they should be, along with being government backed and guaranteed it has allowed the shools to keep raising tuition rates.

As far as the global aspect with USD acting as the reserve currency letting inflation drastically devalue the dollar could lead to something else being chosen as the reserve, which could have a massive impact on our economy or other global political ramifications.

And thats without getting in to fiscal policy which is a whole nother animal altogether.

yeah but when you throw around phrases like QE and starting talking about market valuations, but fail to show a basic understanding their mechanisms, it signals a lack of credibility to me. i mean, you literally just said QE was masking inflation, which is completely wrong. how could you be against something when you don’t know how it works?

 

[TheMistyStranger]

First rejection received on a novel. Feel like I should get an Achievement Trophy for that.

 

[Chainshot]

First rejection received on a novel. Feel like I should get an Achievement Trophy for that.

Keep at it. And frame that rejection - it'll make a good anecdote, hanging on the wall, when that novel is published.

 

[Jim Bob]

Keep at it. And frame that rejection - it'll make a good anecdote, hanging on the wall, when that novel is published.

I wish I had kept the 200+ rejection letters I had at graduation from college.

 

[KiwiGriff]

I wish I had kept the 200+ rejection letters I had at graduation from college.

One of my mates was told he was originally not picked for the intake of new staff at his job but someone pulled out of the original group so they called him up and asked if he’d still like the job. He proceeded to smash performance targets immediately and never let them forget that they almost didn’t choose him.

 

[Chainshot]

I wish I had kept the 200+ rejection letters I had at graduation from college.

I wouldn't mind the occasional rejection letter/email right now. I feel like I am shouting out into the void when it comes to this job search and there isn't even an echo coming back.

 

[Chainshot]

Unpacking a new bed so that I and the dogs might fit into it. And the mattress is now inflated upside down.

 

[Jim Bob]

One of my mates was told he was originally not picked for the intake of new staff at his job but someone pulled out of the original group so they called him up and asked if he’d still like the job. He proceeded to smash performance targets immediately and never let them forget that they almost didn’t choose him.

My best story was a prior ChemE grad at my school had a job with Micron Computers in Boise, ID. He told me to apply. I did. I got a rejection letter shortly after. He emailed me asking why I hadn't applied. I said I did and got a rejection. He said he'd check with HR.

Apparently I got a rejection strictly because I was from out of state and they didn't want to pay relocation costs. I was frustrated because I was a college student. I would pay for my own gas to drive out there if they gave me a job.

I almost tried to use a distant cousins Boise address to apply...

 

[Jim Bob]

I wouldn't mind the occasional rejection letter/email right now. I feel like I am shouting out into the void when it comes to this job search and there isn't even an echo coming back.

I miss the letters in the mail.

Rejection emails just aren't the same...

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I wouldn't mind the occasional rejection letter/email right now. I feel like I am shouting out into the void when it comes to this job search and there isn't even an echo coming back.

PeoPlE dON't waNT tO WorK

 

[Chainshot]

PeoPlE dON't waNT tO WorK

I know right? I have enough mental crap without the addition that I'm somehow irretrievably unemployable now too.

 

[KiwiGriff]

My best story was a prior ChemE grad at my school had a job with Micron Computers in Boise, ID. He told me to apply. I did. I got a rejection letter shortly after. He emailed me asking why I hadn't applied. I said I did and got a rejection. He said he'd check with HR.

Apparently I got a rejection strictly because I was from out of state and they didn't want to pay relocation costs. I was frustrated because I was a college student. I would pay for my own gas to drive out there if they gave me a job.

I almost tried to use a distant cousins Boise address to apply...

Have a similar story. At my work we had this brilliant girl working for us as a contractor for a couple of years. This permanent management job came up she would have been amazing for so I suggested she apply. Everyone said she’d be a great fit.

She doesn’t even get an interview. Turns out the screening process just saw her as an external applicant and they only wanted to promote from within the company. Which seems dumb when we’d been paying her to work for us for over two years.

 

[KiwiGriff]

I know right? I have enough mental crap without the addition that I'm somehow irretrievably unemployable now too.

It seems amazingly rude to me that someone goes out of their way to apply for a job and a company can’t even politely thank them for taking the time to apply.

 

[Chainshot]

It seems amazingly rude to me that someone goes out of their way to apply for a job and a company can’t even politely thank them for taking the time to apply.

I’ve got a better one for you: how about inviting somebody to drive 1400 miles for an in-person interview and then telling you they’re going in another direction?

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I’ve got a better one for you: how about inviting somebody to drive 1400 miles for an in-person interview and then telling you they’re going in another direction?

That's gross af

 

[Chainshot]

That's gross af

It was the latest in a long line of last straws. I admit, I haven’t looked much in the last few months and I am back to syphoning off old retirement fund to meet bills and rent. I hate life.

Edit - my life. Not life as we know it or anything like that.

 

[KiwiGriff]

I’ve got a better one for you: how about inviting somebody to drive 1400 miles for an in-person interview and then telling you they’re going in another direction?

Ouch. That is longer than the entire length of my country. Driving from the bottom to the top is about 1300 miles.