""If Marner does refuse to move in a trade, Toronto would likely want to try to extend him rather than lose him for nothing in free agency."
So if the Leafs haven't given any indication they're willing to extend him right now, all Marner had to do was bluff (or be serious) that he'll walk next year and presto, "here's your extension!"
No. Whomever is pulling the strings at MLSE isn't that stupid. Stupid, maybe, but not that stupid.
And worse, if that theory holds true - sign a player primarily to avoid losing him for nothing - then they've backed themselves into a corner negotiation-wise because Marner can/will just ask for a Nylander++ dream deal and get it. Because ... they'd rather over-pay him then let him walk.
Whether any of this is true or not, as many have pointed out, this situation is very likely going to get messy one way or another. So I guess MLSE figures, maybe just to avoid the mess, extend him now and drama over?
If so, we'd better get used to a lot more first-round exits until the core is completely gone and there's new ownership. At least until then.