Unless Kotkaniemi has a breakthrough season, he will become unrestricted FA next summer. Almost no one is going to qualify him at 6.1 if he keeps his current pace. He's like a 30pt center right now. But beyond points, I'd like to understand his ceiling as a player. I look at his highlights thus far and from memory of seeing him play against us and others, he still seems like a big bodied kid who is still quite raw. It's still very unclear what kind of player he is going to be. He seems like a more raw version of Chytil. I don't know that he tops out as anything more than a middle 6 center right now because I'm not seeing the kind of flashes with him you see with other young kids his age who turn out to be top 6 kids. Are we seeing moments where his hands or vision look special? His shot?
He is far from someone that right now you pay 6.1 for. Many teams can pay him 6.1 for a year. But then when you don't qualify him next summer he can go anywhere. So, what's he worth then? A young raw 30pt center for 1 season when he's very much so figuring things out. AND he cost 6.1m. And likely walks in a year unless he falls in love with his new situation so much he's willing to resign after not getting his QO.
Given that, would you trade a 1st and a 3rd for 1 year of Kotka? A kid you may have to bury on the depth chart from time to time? I doubt most teams are going to take that leap. If you're BUF, are you really going to take this guy in an Eichel trade as a main piece, knowing you may not qualify him and if you don't there's almost no chance he resigns?
Everyone is saying, this is bad for MTL and CAR but it's good for Kotka. I disagree. I think when you're as raw as he is, keeping your salary down and finding a place where you can work through your mistakes and grow should be the priority. And now if he plays for MTL next season, a team that actually needs him with the loss of Danault, they realize he's only there for a year. They have to be mindful of how much they develop him vs focusing on other kids. He's likely going to be on the block this season now. If he's in CAR, he's pretty far down the center depth chart. And at 6.1m he's not going to the A likely. So, I think there's some considerable risk for him in signing this deal. This year is a pretty big one for him developmentally. And it would suck if he's with an organization that may not be the best spot for him developmentally.
BUF might be the best spot for him. We might have been an interesting spot for him but i'm not sure he makes sense in our salary structure moving ahead with his 6.1 QO.
I get that he's really young and he should develop a lot more.
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