Speculation: Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXIII

[Phil McKraken]

Well when there are only 30k ppl that live in Sweden, yes.

(Yes I know there are many more ppl that live in Sweden)

Fun fact, metropolitan NY has roughly twice the population of Sweden and the same as Scandinavia.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Well I suppose that's it. No one knows. That's part of the risk.

Like would you trade Strome straight up for Kotka right now? Is that a Brassard/Mike type deal? Maybe, but that 6.1 changes things. And if we traded Strome for Kotka we'd likely be worse at first. And unlike Mika, Kotka could likely walk at year's end. Would you have traded Brassard for just 1 year of Mika (first year with us Mika)? I doubt it. And Mika seems like the much more gifted player. But again, who knows, make Kotka has a few more levels to reach?

If it was 6.1 for 5-6 I’d consider it.

 

[gravey9]

If it was 6.1 for 5-6 I’d consider it.

Well... is Chytil worth 6.1 x 5? Because if you're willing to pay kotka 6.1 x 5, then you can trade for him right now. He likely would take that deal after this season.

 

[Avery16]

Well I suppose that's it. No one knows. That's part of the risk.

Like would you trade Strome straight up for Kotka right now? Is that a Brassard/Mike type deal? Maybe, but that 6.1 changes things. And if we traded Strome for Kotka we'd likely be worse at first. And unlike Mika, Kotka could likely walk at year's end. Would you have traded Brassard for just 1 year of Mika (first year with us Mika)? I doubt it. And Mika seems like the much more gifted player. But again, who knows, make Kotka has a few more levels to reach?

The QO has to be 6.1. But that doesn’t mean they don’t QO him and then sign a multiyear for less annually than 6.1. It happens pretty often. Heck- they don’t even have to QO him if they agree on terms prior to the deadline.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Well... is Chytil worth 6.1 x 5? Because if you're willing to pay kotka 6.1 x 5, then you can trade for him right now. He likely would take that deal after this season.

Thats a good point. I thought we should try and lock chytil for something like 8x4m or so.

 

[RickChartraw]

Thats a good point. I thought we should try and lock chytil for something like 8x4m or so.

can you share anyone who has signed a 8x4m contract at 21? i'm too lazy to look for that but i doubt you find one.

 

[ncmike]

We’re a shoe in then, I will delete Tobs account if he doesn’t at least hit 50. I’m expecting 70, hoping he cracks 100 if he’s on a line with Panarin. Kravtsov is the real deal. He’s what you’d get if you created the ideal hockey player in a lab

If he brings the intensity and energy he did when he came back he will be a star in this league. Same with chytil. I firmly believe the two will dominate as long as they don’t get lazy.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

can you share anyone who has signed a 8x4m contract at 21? i'm too lazy to look for that but i doubt you find one.

Closest comparables to that are probably Bjugstad, Kadri, Dvorak and Rask, among forwards.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I’d put the odds of Carolina moving Necas at basically zero. He just broke out for them last season, and he’s going to be part of their core of young forwards they’ll continue to build around with Aho and Svechnikov.

 

[Avery16]

I’d put the odds of Carolina moving Necas at basically zero. He just broke out for them last season, and he’s going to be part of their core of young forwards they’ll continue to build around with Aho and Svechnikov.

Trading Necas also doesn't result in any cap room for them.

 

[CLW]

The QO has to be 6.1. But that doesn’t mean they don’t QO him and then sign a multiyear for less annually than 6.1. It happens pretty often. Heck- they don’t even have to QO him if they agree on terms prior to the deadline.

Yeah, Kotkaniemi signed a contract with a $20 bonus, because the inflated salary in itself was the bonus. It's basically a front loaded contract. It was a strat to pry him out of the Habs, and it worked, unless Bergevin is even more bonkers than he has appeared to be lately.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Carolina has to give him a QO of 6.1m next summer if they don't sign him to an extension. And why would Kotkaniemi sign for less if he has either a 6.1m QO coming up or the opportunity to go the UFA route at age 22, signing with whoever he wants?

Because they made a handshake deal to give him a 6 mill offer sheet if he signs for a more reasonable amount on his next contract.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Because they made a handshake deal to give him a 6 mill offer sheet if he signs for a more reasonable amount on his next contract.

Handshake deals aren't binding. We will see what happens after Jan 1st.

 

[Avery16]

Doesn't Lamoriello have like a fifth of his roster on handshake deals currently?

 

[jay from jersey]

Fun fact, metropolitan NY has roughly twice the population of Sweden and the same as Scandinavia.

I don’t know if the housing situation has stabilized in the city yet, or if the mass exodus continues. I can tell you, because I do a ton of work at Penn Station the bums are still everywhere, there is still needles and shit on the streets in front of apartment buildings that cost over 4K a month to rent.
In the last month alone, I’ve had 2 run ins with really aggressive homeless people.
The first instance because I wouldn’t give the guy a dollar, and the 2nd was another guy saw me smoking a cigarette and got pissed I didn’t have 1 to give him while going back to my work truck.
If your paying thousands in rent a month for an apartment or business do you really want to live with that outside every time you come home or leave? Especially with a family
I actually have faith that the new mayor sees this as a major problem and will try to fix it, unlike DeBlaiso with his fugahazi homeless policies/ charities which him and his wife pilfer from. It’s an old game, going back to Mario Cuomo and Dinkins.
I’m praying they right the ship soon, because it’s mere months to possibly a year before the city completely turns San Francisco esque

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Handshake deals aren't binding. We will see what happens after Jan 1st.

Yes we will...he will sign a longer term deal with Carolina and wont get to his qualifying offer.

 

[EdJovanovski]

I feel like my emotions regarding the Buch trade alone moved us up about 10 spots

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

I feel like my emotions regarding the Buch trade alone moved us up about 10 spots

Leafs at 21 when they should be the runaway number one is something.

 

[BBKers]

Regarding social media followers. Back in 2010 when I was GM for a hotel in Iceland, I managed to get over 30.000 domestic followers on Facebook. That was around 10% of the entire countries population…

 

[Ola]

He cannot make 6M/year if he has a bad year. CAR can just not qualify him and nobody is going to give him 6M+ long term as a UFA if he is coming off another bad year. Considering he likely their 4C or 3LW I would not expect him to put up huge numbers this year that would make teams want to pay him that. I could certainly see him taking 4.5M as a bridge for a few years but even that is quite high if he doesn't have a good year.

This is an interesting situation to follow because we have never seen how NHL teams value really young assets as ‘UFA’.

But I don’t quite buy the logic. If you are willing to pay X amount for an RFA of another team, you should definitely be willing to pay X< if the same player was a UFA?

I mean, of course they pay a lot to get him from another organization. I get that. But when we are discussing his next contract, nothing is different. At that stage it’s about keeping him from going to other organizations.

Sure, it’s of course possible that Carolina think that he is a 6m player today and not next summer, but in that case this is a really boneheaded move by them. If they do not give Kotkaniemi a QO, he is free to negotiate with everyone. How can they be sure that he will sign a cheap long term deal with them and not like Tampa or Florida or Colorado or even us?

Edit: Writing this post I realize that you in theory (a) can get a player that you deem to be worth 6m plus a 1st and a 3rd, (b) misuse that player tremendously so that the entire league think he only is worth 2-3m period, even if he could come for free, (c) meanwhile you yourself knows all along that like 4.5m per is what he really is worth so you offer him that on a long term deal and can keep him despite that he is free to negotiate with everyone.

But I doubt this can be executed in practice.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Yeah, Kotkaniemi signed a contract with a $20 bonus, because the inflated salary in itself was the bonus. It's basically a front loaded contract. It was a strat to pry him out of the Habs, and it worked, unless Bergevin is even more bonkers than he has appeared to be lately.

I believe the $20 signing bonus was Don Waddell’s F/U to Marc Bergevin. Sebastien Aho’s jersey’s number is 20 and Bergeron had offer sheeted Aho which Carolina matched. If you compare the two statements released my the Canadians after they signed Sebastien to his offer sheet and the Waddell statement after he signed Kotkaniemi to his offer sheet they are basically identical.

 

[SA16]

This is an interesting situation to follow because we have never seen how NHL teams value really young assets as ‘UFA’.

But I don’t quite buy the logic. If you are willing to pay X amount for an RFA of another team, you should definitely be willing to pay X< if the same player was a UFA?

I mean, of course they pay a lot to get him from another organization. I get that. But when we are discussing his next contract, nothing is different. At that stage it’s about keeping him from going to other organizations.

Sure, it’s of course possible that Carolina think that he is a 6m player today and not next summer, but in that case this is a really boneheaded move by them. If they do not give Kotkaniemi a QO, he is free to negotiate with everyone. How can they be sure that he will sign a cheap long term deal with them and not like Tampa or Florida or Colorado or even us?

Edit: Writing this post I realize that you in theory (a) can get a player that you deem to be worth 6m plus a 1st and a 3rd, (b) misuse that player tremendously so that the entire league think he only is worth 2-3m period, even if he could come for free, (c) meanwhile you yourself knows all along that like 4.5m per is what he really is worth so you offer him that on a long term deal and can keep him despite that he is free to negotiate with everyone.

But I doubt this can be executed in practice.

They don’t think he’s worth 6M today. They had to offer enough to make it tough for montreal to match with the cap and to get it into the tier of a 1+3 because if the compensation was just a 2nd MTL would just match and think nothing of it.

 

[CLW]

I believe the $20 signing bonus was Don Waddell’s F/U to Marc Bergevin. Sebastien Aho’s jersey’s number is 20 and Bergeron had offer sheeted Aho which Carolina matched. If you compare the two statements released my the Canadians after they signed Sebastien to his offer sheet and the Waddell statement after he signed Kotkaniemi to his offer sheet they are basically identical.

Yup. I'm happy for Jesperi that he stod up for himself and refused to let Bergevin use him as a football.

I see some claims that this move was only to spite the Habs, but the Canes tried to trade for him before they offered sheeted him. Clearly both Waddell and KK were less than pleased with Bergevin.

 

[LOFIN]

Yup. I'm happy for Jesperi that he stod up for himself and refused to let Bergevin use him as a football.

I see some claims that this move was only to spite the Habs, but the Canes tried to trade for him before they offered sheeted him. Clearly both Waddell and KK were less than pleased with Bergevin.

While I do think Kotkaniemi might have some issues with how he has been treated, that's an offer sheet you sign every day of the week even if he loves it there. That's probably 3 times what he would've made based on his play.

 

[hi]

I feel like my emotions regarding the Buch trade alone moved us up about 10 spots

The Canadiens being twelfth is a joke. They get stressed when any player on their team is bumped or touched