Speculation: Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXIII

[IDvsEGO]

This marriage will not last long.

There are a ton of hockey and other professional athletes with 20+ year marriages that are like that. They can afford to fly their spouse in for the weekend. This is likely not a "long distance relationship" where they dont see each other for months at a time.

 

[IDvsEGO]

No, if Montreal matches the offer sheet they cannot trade him for 1 year.

Better question, can mtl trade him now, to a team that would match it as a FU to both parties?

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Better question, can mtl trade him now, to a team that would match it as a FU to both parties?

No. Since the offer sheet was signed the only things Montreal can do are either match it and keep KK for at least this upcoming season OR they can decline to match and take the draft pick compensation. They can't trade KK right now.

 

[Ola]

They don’t think he’s worth 6M today. They had to offer enough to make it tough for montreal to match with the cap and to get it into the tier of a 1+3 because if the compensation was just a 2nd MTL would just match and think nothing of it.

Yeah, but at the same time, isn’t this always the case with like UFAs too for example? You pay the price it takes to get a player, otherwise someone else will get him.

It’s just a bit unusual position. If all 18-22 y/o’s were UFAs, some would get overpaid a lot due to potential future performance.

The argument that Kotkaniemi ‘never will get 6m as a UFA’ only make sense if Carolina’s offer sheet is extreme overpayment. On the open market, you pay what it takes to get a player. If you don’t pay the most, someone else will get him. Carolina is de facto willing to pay Kotkaniemi 6m per AND a 1st and a 3rd to get him. Next summer they will get the same choice, either they make him a QO at 6m per or they won’t get him/they let him walk for free.

Would Kotkaniemi get 6m as a UFA? I don’t know, BUT if Carolina was willing to pay 6m per and a 1st and a 3rd ‘just to get him from MTL’, you can only assume that someone would be willing to pay Kotkaniemi the same money without the picks ‘just to get him’. If nobody is even willing to pay him that without the picks, Carolina’s OS was extreme overpayment. Right? It’s not apples and oranges, it’s comparing apples and apples 100%.

No matter how you slice it or dice it, it’s just very odd by Kotkaniemi’s agent to advice him to take like 4-5m per on a long term deal in Carolina. What is Carolina going to do, let him become a UFA? Why should that be a threat to Kotkaniemi? What does Kotkaniemi stand to lose from that? Is there a risk that Carolina is willing to pay him a lot more between 1 January-30 June 2022 than what Kotkaniemi would get on July 1? Like there is zero reason to expect that. Right?

 

[Ola]

Just saying that the exact argument — ie ‘Carolina had to pay him 6m to get him from MTL’ — undeniably exists for a GM next season too, ‘if we don’t pay Kotkaniemi X m, he will never leave Carolina, we have to pay him X m to get him or Carolina will match our offer’. The difference is that MTL gets more compensation the higher Kotkaniemi is paid, but this do never logically speak in favor of someone being willing to pay MORE for him as a RFA than as a UFA, it’s of course the opposite.

Is X = 6m? I don’t know, but if Kotkaniemi was worth that much — plus — the picks for Carolina ‘just to get him from Montreal’, why wouldn’t he be worth it — minus — the picks for another team ‘just to get him from Carolina’?

The only way don’t get 6m as a UFA is if Carolina way overpaid him. It’s of course possible. Maybe everyone watch him next season and see that he stinks (if he does). But like, it still never makes sense to expect him to get paid more in Carolina than elsewhere. Everyone will be watching the same player.

 

[cheech70]

Gerard Gallant enthused over obscure Rangers' Jim Midgley

GG seems to have a common sense approach and a clear plan on how to get a team to play correctly. I like his comments on specific roles ...stating at the end its me deciding pp and pk and everything else...brings in this young guy to mentor and motivate the youngins...

 

[Avery16]

Yeah, but at the same time, isn’t this always the case with like UFAs too for example? You pay the price it takes to get a player, otherwise someone else will get him.

It’s just a bit unusual position. If all 18-22 y/o’s were UFAs, some would get overpaid a lot due to potential future performance.

The argument that Kotkaniemi ‘never will get 6m as a UFA’ only make sense if Carolina’s offer sheet is extreme overpayment. On the open market, you pay what it takes to get a player. If you don’t pay the most, someone else will get him. Carolina is de facto willing to pay Kotkaniemi 6m per AND a 1st and a 3rd to get him. Next summer they will get the same choice, either they make him a QO at 6m per or they won’t get him/they let him walk for free.

Would Kotkaniemi get 6m as a UFA? I don’t know, BUT if Carolina was willing to pay 6m per and a 1st and a 3rd ‘just to get him from MTL’, you can only assume that someone would be willing to pay Kotkaniemi the same money without the picks ‘just to get him’. If nobody is even willing to pay him that without the picks, Carolina’s OS was extreme overpayment. Right? It’s not apples and oranges, it’s comparing apples and apples 100%.

No matter how you slice it or dice it, it’s just very odd by Kotkaniemi’s agent to advice him to take like 4-5m per on a long term deal in Carolina. What is Carolina going to do, let him become a UFA? Why should that be a threat to Kotkaniemi? What does Kotkaniemi stand to lose from that? Is there a risk that Carolina is willing to pay him a lot more between 1 January-30 June 2022 than what Kotkaniemi would get on July 1? Like there is zero reason to expect that. Right?

If you look at what players make on the open market with Kotkaniemi’s current output, it’s nowhere near 6 million, or even half that. Anyone giving Kotkaniemi 6 million over term is taking a huge, unforced risk.

The payoff Carolina was hoping for by signing him to an inflated 6.1 x 1 and the draft picks, is the longer contract that they will sign him to for 4-5 million per. That’s the contract he could get on the open market rn, not 6.1.

The next team doesn’t have to pay the 6.1 to get around his team’s RFA rights. They can sign him to whatever they want, and that number will be dictated by the market without any other factors.

If he doesn’t sign with Carolina, he’s betting another team will give him the same longer contract, a better team than Carolina. He could lose that bet, as another team will have paid nothing to acquire him. He might only get two-year offers at less than 4.

But no team is giving Kotkaniemi 6.1 over term with this next contract. He’s just not worth it, and everyone knows that. If he was worth that, then Carolina would have given him term with the OS.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Kotkaniemi ...can we get in the middle of this? Of course Strome plus going back for the 1 year of KK? Can Montreal immediately trade him?

A team retaining a player after an offer sheet cannot trade that player for at least one year.

A team acquiring a player on an offer sheet, as far as I know, can be traded. There's no distinction in the CBA regarding that.

 

[LOFIN]

In the end, it's still very low risk for Carolina. If he completely busts, they let him walk, and only spent one first and a 3rd on the experiment. If he has a decent season, not enough to warrant 6 million QO but Kotkaniemi won't agree on a smaller AAV, you still had him as a one year rental for a 1st and a 3rd. Not bad. If he breaks out, they are probably more than happy to pay him that 6 million QO.

The downsides for Carolina are the fact that they now can't really make TDL additions, if they realize that their D needs help and offence was good enough even with Kotkaniemi. And I guess you can throw in the possibility that they completely implode and that 1st turns into a lottery pick. But if I'm Carolina, I'm taking my chances with Kotkaniemi. He was drafted higher than he should've been, but always had and still has (at least I think so) the potential to become at least a good 2nd line center. And if the cost for acquiring him ends up being a mid-late first and a 3rd for Carolina, that's a pretty good deal.

Montreal on the other hand, is in a lose-lose situation, unless they can find a way to convert those picks into Dvorak or something.

 

[Fitzy]

I want to get Tomas Hertl. Strome and a 1st?

I think NYR probably plan to explore the UFA market next offseason for a center, if no good trade ideas become available.

Who knows, if Chytil takes a big leap forward this season we may not even need to find a 2C.

 

[Ola]

If you look at what players make on the open market with Kotkaniemi’s current output, it’s nowhere near 6 million, or even half that. Anyone giving Kotkaniemi 6 million over term is taking a huge, unforced risk.

The payoff Carolina was hoping for by signing him to an inflated 6.1 x 1 and the draft picks, is the longer contract that they will sign him to for 4-5 million per. That’s the contract he could get on the open market rn, not 6.1.

The next team does have to pay the 6.1 to get around his team’s RFA rights. They can sign him to whatever they want, and that number sill be dictated by the market without any other factors.

If he doesn’t sign with Carolina, he’s betting another team will give him the same longer contract, a better team than Carolina. But no team is giving Kotkaniemi 6.1 over term with this next contract. He’s just not worth it, and everyone knows that.

Hehe, we must agree to pause this discussion, because you can never get me to agree that the ‘other factors’ you refer to — ie the RFA compensation aspect — speak in favor of someone paying more to him as a RFA than a UFA.

If it’s worth 6.1m for Carolina and a 1st and a 3rd ‘just to get him from MTL’, it ought to be worth it to offer that much for another team — minus the picks — ‘just to get him from Carolina’. And there is no particular reason really to expect Carolina to be willing to pay him more as a RFA than all other teams in the NHL, if he doesn’t take Carolina’s highest offer before he becomes a UFA, someone else ought to be prepared to pay him the same.

I certainly admit that it’s possible that he will sign for less than 6m in Carolina, but that basically means that they overpaid a ton to get him because it can only happen on the assumption that nobody was willing to pay the same as Carolina did, minus the picks.

 

[Lays]

His output is also not much more than Strome’s. At the very least, it shouldn’t take a 1st as sweetener.

Hertl doesn’t get to play with Panarin. He’s someone who creates his own offense. Not to knock Strome, but Hertl can breakout into an upper echelon C with proper linemates. Problem is he has no offensive help in SJ aside from Kane. I’m curious on Hertl, but it depends on price. I’d trade Chytil+Jones+1st for him if we’re in a playoff spot at the deadline and if an extension is in place

 

[Levitate]

Hehe, we must agree to pause this discussion, because you can never get me to agree that the ‘other factors’ you refer to — ie the RFA compensation aspect — speak in favor of someone paying more to him as a RFA than a UFA.

If it’s worth 6.1m for Carolina and a 1st and a 3rd ‘just to get him from MTL’, it ought to be worth it to offer that much for another team — minus the picks — ‘just to get him from Carolina’. And there is no particular reason really to expect Carolina to be willing to pay him more as a RFA than all other teams in the NHL, if he doesn’t take Carolina’s highest offer before he becomes a UFA, someone else ought to be prepared to pay him the same.

I certainly admit that it’s possible that he will sign for less than 6m in Carolina, but that basically means that they overpaid a ton to get him because it can only happen on the assumption that nobody was willing to pay the same as Carolina did, minus the picks.

Uh, they overpaid him this year to make sure that Montreal would have a tough time matching. He is 100% without a doubt very overpaid compared to his production or even possible production, but Carolina is rolling the dice a bit to get a player they wanted and they figure they can handle the overpayment this season. If he breaks out and does great I think they'll be happy to pay him whatever. I'm not sure that they're going to get him for a lot less even if some writer hinted at it but what I see is: 1.) he breaks out, the Canes and KK negotiate a fair long term deal based on that production, maybe it's for close to what this contract is. 2.) he busts. They have to qualify him for a lot but could choose to just walk away. Not sure what his status on arbitration is. But if he has a bad year and Carolina walks away, then KK isn't going to have other teams sniffing around at $6+ mill per year when he's an UFA. 3.) he has a decent year but not great and Carolina is in a sticky situation where they have to decide whether to qualify him and risk him taking another overpaid year, or instead they can work out a longer term contract that might not be as much per year. The benefit for KK would be more long term certainty in money even if it's not big $$ per year.

Anyways, the only reason Carolina paid him as much as they did was to make it hard on Montreal to match. I think they obviously believe in the player or they wouldn't take this risk but they do run the risk of a situation where they spend assets to get a guy they have to walk away from to avoid a bad contract in the future if he doesn't progress the way they hoped.

To be honest I'm not raelly even sure what your argument is because I haven't been following it super closely. I think ultimately the biggest points here are that he's overpaid this year not because that's his true market value but that's what the cost was to make Montreal think twice about matching, and that next year he might get paid less per year but on a long term contract and may be willing to accept that because of the long term financial security, but it ultimately depends on his performance this year.

 

[Ola]

Uh, they overpaid him this year to make sure that Montreal would have a tough time matching. He is 100% without a doubt very overpaid compared to his production or even possible production, but Carolina is rolling the dice a bit to get a player they wanted and they figure they can handle the overpayment this season. If he breaks out and does great I think they'll be happy to pay him whatever. I'm not sure that they're going to get him for a lot less even if some writer hinted at it but what I see is: 1.) he breaks out, the Canes and KK negotiate a fair long term deal based on that production, maybe it's for close to what this contract is. 2.) he busts. They have to qualify him for a lot but could choose to just walk away. Not sure what his status on arbitration is. But if he has a bad year and Carolina walks away, then KK isn't going to have other teams sniffing around at $6+ mill per year when he's an UFA. 3.) he has a decent year but not great and Carolina is in a sticky situation where they have to decide whether to qualify him and risk him taking another overpaid year, or instead they can work out a longer term contract that might not be as much per year. The benefit for KK would be more long term certainty in money even if it's not big $$ per year.

Anyways, the only reason Carolina paid him as much as they did was to make it hard on Montreal to match. I think they obviously believe in the player or they wouldn't take this risk but they do run the risk of a situation where they spend assets to get a guy they have to walk away from to avoid a bad contract in the future if he doesn't progress the way they hoped.

To be honest I'm not raelly even sure what your argument is because I haven't been following it super closely. I think ultimately the biggest points here are that he's overpaid this year not because that's his true market value but that's what the cost was to make Montreal think twice about matching, and that next year he might get paid less per year but on a long term contract and may be willing to accept that because of the long term financial security, but it ultimately depends on his performance this year.

I am just saying that I wouldn’t expect Carolina to be able to resign him under 6m per.

All arguments that can be made for why Carolina offered him 6m per as a RFA can be made for why a team should offer him the same amount as a UFA.

 

[haveandare]

I have a hard time understanding why Kotkaniemi would take less on his next contract in Carolina?

Sounds a little backwards, he would take less to give up UFA years.

Yeah that’s another consideration. They’d pretty much have to say that they knew he wasn’t worth that at all and just did it to spite MTL

 

[Avery16]

Uh, they overpaid him this year to make sure that Montreal would have a tough time matching. He is 100% without a doubt very overpaid compared to his production or even possible production, but Carolina is rolling the dice a bit to get a player they wanted and they figure they can handle the overpayment this season. If he breaks out and does great I think they'll be happy to pay him whatever. I'm not sure that they're going to get him for a lot less even if some writer hinted at it but what I see is: 1.) he breaks out, the Canes and KK negotiate a fair long term deal based on that production, maybe it's for close to what this contract is. 2.) he busts. They have to qualify him for a lot but could choose to just walk away. Not sure what his status on arbitration is. But if he has a bad year and Carolina walks away, then KK isn't going to have other teams sniffing around at $6+ mill per year when he's an UFA. 3.) he has a decent year but not great and Carolina is in a sticky situation where they have to decide whether to qualify him and risk him taking another overpaid year, or instead they can work out a longer term contract that might not be as much per year. The benefit for KK would be more long term certainty in money even if it's not big $$ per year.

Anyways, the only reason Carolina paid him as much as they did was to make it hard on Montreal to match. I think they obviously believe in the player or they wouldn't take this risk but they do run the risk of a situation where they spend assets to get a guy they have to walk away from to avoid a bad contract in the future if he doesn't progress the way they hoped.

To be honest I'm not raelly even sure what your argument is because I haven't been following it super closely. I think ultimately the biggest points here are that he's overpaid this year not because that's his true market value but that's what the cost was to make Montreal think twice about matching, and that next year he might get paid less per year but on a long term contract and may be willing to accept that because of the long term financial security, but it ultimately depends on his performance this year.

 

[NYR94]

Uh, they overpaid him this year to make sure that Montreal would have a tough time matching. He is 100% without a doubt very overpaid compared to his production or even possible production, but Carolina is rolling the dice a bit to get a player they wanted and they figure they can handle the overpayment this season. If he breaks out and does great I think they'll be happy to pay him whatever. I'm not sure that they're going to get him for a lot less even if some writer hinted at it but what I see is: 1.) he breaks out, the Canes and KK negotiate a fair long term deal based on that production, maybe it's for close to what this contract is. 2.) he busts. They have to qualify him for a lot but could choose to just walk away. Not sure what his status on arbitration is. But if he has a bad year and Carolina walks away, then KK isn't going to have other teams sniffing around at $6+ mill per year when he's an UFA. 3.) he has a decent year but not great and Carolina is in a sticky situation where they have to decide whether to qualify him and risk him taking another overpaid year, or instead they can work out a longer term contract that might not be as much per year. The benefit for KK would be more long term certainty in money even if it's not big $$ per year.

Anyways, the only reason Carolina paid him as much as they did was to make it hard on Montreal to match. I think they obviously believe in the player or they wouldn't take this risk but they do run the risk of a situation where they spend assets to get a guy they have to walk away from to avoid a bad contract in the future if he doesn't progress the way they hoped.

To be honest I'm not raelly even sure what your argument is because I haven't been following it super closely. I think ultimately the biggest points here are that he's overpaid this year not because that's his true market value but that's what the cost was to make Montreal think twice about matching, and that next year he might get paid less per year but on a long term contract and may be willing to accept that because of the long term financial security, but it ultimately depends on his performance this year.

Well said. Carolina had to make an offer high enough to make it difficult for Montreal to match. That's how good offer sheets work. Doesn't mean Carolina thinks he's actually worth that much, and KK's camp knows it too.

 

[Daves a mess]

Off Topic but whatever..

I got a new phone and I got logged off a few days ago somehow. Didn’t care much, as I could still read the posts, and I don't post much anyway. But the cool thing was, was that I saw a shit ton of people I blocked over the last 16 years posting away in the last 2 or 3 days. Glad to see that they are still around doing their thing.

So weird reading their stuff after so many years. It was fun.

 

[haohmaru]

So weird reading their stuff after so many years. It was fun.

You joined in 2014. Noob.

 

[Levitate]

I am just saying that I wouldn’t expect Carolina to be able to resign him under 6m per.

I think if he does well but not super duper well then there's a chance...he might value the long term $$ rather than another short year high dollar contract.

All arguments that can be made for why Carolina offered him 6m per as a RFA can be made for why a team should offer him the same amount as a UFA.

This doesn't really make sense at all

 

[duhmetreE]

I love Carolina screwing with Montreal. payback.

 

[LOFIN]

I think if he does well but not super duper well then there's a chance...he might value the long term $$ rather than another short year high dollar contract.

Especially if he really likes it in Carolina. Guys, we signed Panarin when he had bigger offers on the table. We paid a ton, but he still took a slight discount to be here. Not an out of world thought that Kotkaniemi would take a discount if it means job security, and he likes it at Carolina.

 

[Daves a mess]

You joined in 2014. Noob.

Nope. April 2005. I was "Happy Hour" back then you goof lol.

 

[SA16]

Yeah, but at the same time, isn’t this always the case with like UFAs too for example? You pay the price it takes to get a player, otherwise someone else will get him.

It’s just a bit unusual position. If all 18-22 y/o’s were UFAs, some would get overpaid a lot due to potential future performance.

The argument that Kotkaniemi ‘never will get 6m as a UFA’ only make sense if Carolina’s offer sheet is extreme overpayment. On the open market, you pay what it takes to get a player. If you don’t pay the most, someone else will get him. Carolina is de facto willing to pay Kotkaniemi 6m per AND a 1st and a 3rd to get him. Next summer they will get the same choice, either they make him a QO at 6m per or they won’t get him/they let him walk for free.

Would Kotkaniemi get 6m as a UFA? I don’t know, BUT if Carolina was willing to pay 6m per and a 1st and a 3rd ‘just to get him from MTL’, you can only assume that someone would be willing to pay Kotkaniemi the same money without the picks ‘just to get him’. If nobody is even willing to pay him that without the picks, Carolina’s OS was extreme overpayment. Right? It’s not apples and oranges, it’s comparing apples and apples 100%.

No matter how you slice it or dice it, it’s just very odd by Kotkaniemi’s agent to advice him to take like 4-5m per on a long term deal in Carolina. What is Carolina going to do, let him become a UFA? Why should that be a threat to Kotkaniemi? What does Kotkaniemi stand to lose from that? Is there a risk that Carolina is willing to pay him a lot more between 1 January-30 June 2022 than what Kotkaniemi would get on July 1? Like there is zero reason to expect that. Right?

It is not the same as a UFA. Nobody would need to offer him 6M as that would be an egregious overprice that would likely be way higher than anyone else is offering. As an RFA it is different because they need to make the compensation high enough to convince MTL not to just match it. Well the reason he would take 4-5M long term is because through three years he has not done much in the NHL and he will not likely make more money than that unless his offense explodes. Signing 4-20 and guaranteeing himself 20M could easily end up better for him than going year by year if he does not improve. And there is a big risk not taking it. Say they offer him 4-5M for 4-5 years in Jan. If he declines and then has a poor second half of the season and ends with 25-30 points there's a real risk he is not given a QO and not offered anywhere near that much by any other team as a UFA.

 

[Ola]

This doesn't really make sense at all

Yes it does, any argument against it certainly makes no sense.

So your point is that if a player cost a 1st and a 3rd a team is willing to pay 6m for him but if he is free nobody would be willing to pay 6m for him?

See, that doesn’t make sense. Somewhere along the line you guys construe some circumstance that doesnt exist lol. And don’t come dragging with the argument that they ‘have to pay him 6m to pry him away from MTL’.

1. If Carolina is willing to pay 6m, a 1st and a 3rd they would be willing to pay 6m for him if he was a UFA today. Right? Really, this must be indisputable?

2. A UFA will get as much as the highest bidder in an auction is willing to pay. Right? If Carolina is willing to offer 6m, a 1st and a 3rd, all it takes is one team willing to offer like 5.5m — and no picks — next season Carolina must match that to keep him. Right?

Like the circumstance that you must outbid someone to get the player you want always exist.

The circumstance that CAR have to pay picks to MTL as compensation can never ‘drive up’ the price. If anything it’s the opposite. If there were no picks — the team losing the player would get ‘nothing’ if they didn’t match which only can lead to the logic conclusion that they would be more inclined to match an offer which would drive up the price even further.