Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

[Hodge]

Let's say you trade Hertl to Boston at the deadline for a 1st, a 4th and someone like Studnicka. Then Meier gets dealt to NJ at the draft for their 1st (assuming it's not top two) and one of their better prospects like Mukhamadulin.

Now you have three 2022 1st round picks, a depleted roster that should net you a top five pick in 2023 and tons of cap space you can use to broker deals or take on bad short term contracts for additional draft picks. This is how you build up a war chest of assets to develop alongside Eklund, Bordeleau and Merkley or package for established impact players.

Or you can sign Hertl and Meier to matching eight year extensions and lock in a roster that can't even make the playoffs when it's firing on all cylinders. I think we know which option Doug Wilson will go for.

 

[Mayo8898]

Oberg and Coe with a goal
Cardwell with 2 goals and an assist

 

[themelkman]

Let's say you trade Hertl to Boston at the deadline for a 1st, a 4th and someone like Studnicka. Then Meier gets dealt to NJ at the draft for their 1st (assuming it's not top two) and one of their better prospects like Mukhamadulin.

Now you have three 2022 1st round picks, a depleted roster that should net you a top five pick in 2023 and tons of cap space you can use to broker deals or take on bad short term contracts for additional draft picks. This is how you build up a war chest of assets to develop alongside Eklund, Bordeleau and Merkley or package for established impact players.

Or you can sign Hertl and Meier to matching eight year extensions and lock in a roster that can't even make the playoffs when it's firing on all cylinders. I think we know which option Doug Wilson will go for.

Those are terrible returns. Seriously you hate our prospects but you want Mukhamadulin for Meier? This feels like trolling at this point

 

[Hodge]

Those are terrible returns. Seriously you hate our prospects but you want Mukhamadulin for Meier? This feels like trolling at this point

Prepare to be extremely underwhelmed by the actual returns if these players are traded. Hertl is a pure rental and Meier's contract has a poison pill in it. Anyway if the Sharks do happen to get better offers for either or both players that's all the more reason to move them.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Prepare to be extremely underwhelmed by the actual returns if these players are traded. Hertl is a pure rental and Meier's contract has a poison pill in it. Anyway if the Sharks do happen to get better offers for either or both players that's all the more reason to move them.

I mean poison pill if he's playing like last year sure. This year he's on a 90+ point pace.

 

[Hodge]

I mean poison pill if he's playing like last year sure. This year he's on a 90+ point pace.

The poison pill is that Meier has 100% of the leverage in negotiating an extension, independent of his performance. Any team acquiring Meier this offseason is only guaranteed two years of service from him at $10M in salary each year. That will significantly hamper his trade value compared to what it would be if he were signed to something like the Kyle Connor contract instead. Another Doug Wilson screw-up that will cost the team dearly.

 

[Jwec]

Hodge has some points sometimes but I really don't understand how he values our players and prospects compared to other team's players and prospects. Like Mukhamadullin who probably does not seem to be more than 3rd pairing NHL player and 1st would be return for Meier. Come on now. There is lesser RENTAL players who has netted more than that... I would not trade Hertl for 1st + Mukhamadullin. But I don't value Mukhamadullin like elite prospect.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Let's say you trade Hertl to Boston at the deadline for a 1st, a 4th and someone like Studnicka. Then Meier gets dealt to NJ at the draft for their 1st (assuming it's not top two) and one of their better prospects like Mukhamadulin.

Now you have three 2022 1st round picks, a depleted roster that should net you a top five pick in 2023 and tons of cap space you can use to broker deals or take on bad short term contracts for additional draft picks. This is how you build up a war chest of assets to develop alongside Eklund, Bordeleau and Merkley or package for established impact players.

Or you can sign Hertl and Meier to matching eight year extensions and lock in a roster that can't even make the playoffs when it's firing on all cylinders. I think we know which option Doug Wilson will go for.

Why on earth would we sell Meier for a first and alright prospect to package for an established player, when we already have that established player who is not old, and odds are none of our current prospects outside of Eklund have the potential of Meier. If we gut it down too much we will turn into the next version of the Sabres and miss the playoffs every year because our prospects don't develop properly because we're playing them with bums. We need to have good situations for our young players to succeed in.

Even with Meier, it's not like its out of the realm of possibility we draft top 5 next year. As of right now, it looks like we're going to rely on young players even more, and our already regressing veterans should continue that path.

 

[Kcoyote3]

14th prospect pool by Wheeler and the athletic. This is the list of prospects

 

[Stewie Griffin]

14th prospect pool by Wheeler and the athletic. This is the list of prospects
View attachment 502766

I think mine would look similar. Kniazev has been dropping.

 

[Hodge]

Why on earth would we sell Meier for a first and alright prospect to package for an established player, when we already have that established player who is not old, and odds are none of our current prospects outside of Eklund have the potential of Meier. If we gut it down too much we will turn into the next version of the Sabres and miss the playoffs every year because our prospects don't develop properly because we're playing them with bums. We need to have good situations for our young players to succeed in.

Even with Meier, it's not like its out of the realm of possibility we draft top 5 next year. As of right now, it looks like we're going to rely on young players even more, and our already regressing veterans should continue that path.

I'm not saying don't get more for him if you can. I'm just extremely skeptical that's possible since Sheng Peng has reported that teams around the league hate the structure of Meier's contract. You're trading the asset, not the player in a vacuum. That applies to keeping him too given the Sharks' only real option is to offer 8.5-9M on a long term deal to avoid Meier just accepting the QO.

Meier is already 25. It's pathetic that the Sharks are currently so rudderless that a 25 year old doesn't fit the timeline of their rebuild but even if it takes a wildly optimistic three years to rebuild the team into a playoff contender Meier will be past his statistical prime at almost 29 with six years still left on a huge contract. The first thing the Sharks need to do as an organization is stop signing these massive long term contracts unless a player deserves one coming off his ELC. There are already plenty of veterans we're stuck with like Couture, Karlsson, Vlasic and probably Burns who can show the rookies the ropes or whatever.

 

[Gecklund]

Let's say you trade Hertl to Boston at the deadline for a 1st, a 4th and someone like Studnicka. Then Meier gets dealt to NJ at the draft for their 1st (assuming it's not top two) and one of their better prospects like Mukhamadulin.

Now you have three 2022 1st round picks, a depleted roster that should net you a top five pick in 2023 and tons of cap space you can use to broker deals or take on bad short term contracts for additional draft picks. This is how you build up a war chest of assets to develop alongside Eklund, Bordeleau and Merkley or package for established impact players.

Or you can sign Hertl and Meier to matching eight year extensions and lock in a roster that can't even make the playoffs when it's firing on all cylinders. I think we know which option Doug Wilson will go for.

Studnicka isn’t good either

 

[hohosaregood]

14th prospect pool by Wheeler and the athletic. This is the list of prospects
View attachment 502766

Seems fair. Basically the gist of the article is that the Sharks don't have that deep of a pool right now but the top 8 have really solid NHL potential.

 

[Hodge]

Studnicka isn’t good either

Some of you need to refresh your memory on what rentals actually fetch or it's going to be a very disappointing trade deadline.

 

[Gecklund]

Some of you need to refresh your memory on what rentals actually fetch or it's going to be a very disappointing trade deadline.

Or ya know we don’t settle for a guy that looks to be Gambrell 2.0 you complain about all these guys and then ask for more of the same of what you complain about.

 

[Hodge]

Or ya know we don’t settle for a guy that looks to be Gambrell 2.0 you complain about all these guys and then ask for more of the same of what you complain about.

The point of my post wasn't that Studnicka and Mukhamadulin are amazing prospects. I think they probably end up being worthless or depth filler at best. The point is that even with the minimum return for Hertl and Meier you still end up with four 1st round picks over the next two years, one of the worst rosters in the league ahead of the Bedard/Michkov tank battle and tons of cap space to launder money and eat contracts for picks. It's the easiest most obvious decision in the world for the Sharks to trade these two given the current state of the team.

 

[Gecklund]

The point of my post wasn't that Studnicka and Mukhamadulin are amazing prospects. I think they probably end up being worthless or depth filler at best. The point is that even with the minimum return for Hertl and Meier you still end up with four 1st round picks over the next two years, one of the worst rosters in the league ahead of the Bedard/Michkov tank battle and tons of cap space to launder money and eat contracts for picks. It's the easiest most obvious decision in the world for the Sharks to trade these two given the current state of the team.

This is some backwards ass thinking. You know who else was an absolute can’t miss prospect. Lafreniere. Guy is barely a third line winger right now. Hertl you can get rid of because of his contract situation but you sure as hell better be getting something better than a very late first, a very late fourth, and Gambrell 2.0. Timo is having an almost Hart level season. You sure as hell better be getting something better than a mid first and a shitty prospect. You don’t move guys like those two for pieces with close to 0 chance of ever being them or even coming close to replacing them.

 

[hohosaregood]

I'd expect a Mark Stone-esque return for Hertl. They're pretty similar examples with Stone having more upside. But a 2nd+a top tier prospect would be nice.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Don't forget it's DW that is behind the other side of a trade. You could argue he has brought some pieces and made signings that didn't pan out. But he has A LOT deals that went in Sharks way by a wide margin.

Imo DW doesn't trade Meier, because he likes his guys. Hertl is possibility, but it won't be easy and I don't see DW making a bad deal.

 

[Hodge]

This is some backwards ass thinking. You know who else was an absolute can’t miss prospect. Lafreniere. Guy is barely a third line winger right now. Hertl you can get rid of because of his contract situation but you sure as hell better be getting something better than a very late first, a very late fourth, and Gambrell 2.0. Timo is having an almost Hart level season. You sure as hell better be getting something better than a mid first and a shitty prospect. You don’t move guys like those two for pieces with close to 0 chance of ever being them or even coming close to replacing them.

So the solution is to sign them to contract extensions that take them well into their 30s even though the Sharks aren't competitive while they're both still in their prime and producing to the best of their abilities? It's one or the other. Personally I would rather take what futures you can get instead of adding even more unmoveable long term contracts to the books and locking in this terrible roster for another decade of decline.

 

[LadyStanley]

Link to full article. Paywall

 

[Hodge]

I'd expect a Mark Stone-esque return for Hertl. They're pretty similar examples with Stone having more upside. But a 2nd+a top tier prospect would be nice.

That was the price for Stone with an agreed upon extension with Vegas. We're not getting a Brannstrom level prospect for Hertl as a rental. People need to separate Hertl and Meier the players from Hertl and Meier the assets. The only thing that matters in a trade is the latter.

 

[Kcoyote3]

That was the price for Stone with an agreed upon extension with Vegas. We're not getting a Brannstrom level prospect for Hertl as a rental. People need to separate Hertl and Meier the players from Hertl and Meier the assets. The only thing that matters in a trade is the latter.

If you couple Hertl at 50% and Barabanov to a desperate competing team, someone like Toronto or Florida who are desperate for playoff success, I think a top prospect is on the table.

 

[Gecklund]

So the solution is to sign them to contract extensions that take them well into their 30s even though the Sharks aren't competitive while they're both still in their prime and producing to the best of their abilities? It's one or the other. Personally I would rather take what futures you can get instead of adding even more unmoveable long term contracts to the books and locking in this terrible roster for another decade of decline.

The solution is to not take less than subpar returns for your most valuable pieces.

 

[Hodge]

If you couple Hertl at 50% and Barabanov to a desperate competing team, someone like Toronto or Florida who are desperate for playoff success, I think a top prospect is on the table.

I think the ceiling on a Barabanov return is something like the 2nd and 3rd round picks Vegas traded for Janmark last year. For Hertl the ceiling is probably the Taylor Hall trade from NJ to the Coyotes which netted a 1st, 3rd and two mediocre prospects. Hall was a recent MVP and traded months earlier than Hertl will be so I don't think it's realistic to expect quite as much for him. Regardless I don't see how it's possible to get a legit blue chip asset here even if you package them together.

The solution is to not take less than subpar returns for your most valuable pieces.

Those are basically market value returns. If we get more that would be awesome but we need to trade both players no matter what the offers look like.