Shanahan Post Season Presser

[egd27]

He did a good job early on in changing things over but it's over, time to hand the keys to someone else.

I have no confidence in Shanahan, Dubas or Keefe to do their jobs.

He did a good job early on by relying on a management team with a track record of success to change the culture and develop a more professional attitude for the organization.

I'm willing to concede that mistakes were made and that it was time to move on from the coach and GM and let someone else build on what had been started. But hiring a management team that clearly put the needs of the individual player ahead of the overall organization has completely negated any progress that was made between 2015 and 2018.

IMO, at this point the "professionalism horse" is out of the barn and it's not likely to come back. Certainly not when the President and GM keep publicly stating how "they'll learn" while one $11M player laughs off questions, and another talks about how hard it was not hanging out with his friends.

 

[Trapper]

I wouldn't generalize like that - I'm not saying trade out of emotion, I'm saying consider everything and don't rule out trading core pieces because you should never rule out anything.

You're again stating opinions as facts - you don't know what trades might be out there for consideration.

There are a number of scenarios for management to evaluate. One possibility is elite players who aren't happy where they are, we know of Jones and Eichel, perhaps there are others. The other end of the spectrum is to just trade say Marner for a boatload of picks and use the cap space to sign an elite player like Dougie Hamilton. Then there are all kinds of other possibilities and there might be several that make us a better tean.

If a player like Marner was made available, I can guarantee you that there would be a TON of interest, there would be many interesting offers to choose from and saying none of them would help us makes no sense whatsoever. And the same goes for Matthews to an even greater degree. When you're a killer team on paper yet you keep losing in the 1st round, doesn't it make sense to consider other options? Say we lose again in the 1st round next year to Boston, TB, Florida, WSH or whoever else, then what? Are you still gonna say can't trade core pieces? At that point Marner and Matthews will have less value as they're under contract for one year less. And if you don't change anything again and lose again, then their value goes down again and Matthews would basically be a rental player.

Every year you wait, your trading position gets worse. If you are going to stick with this core until the bitter end, you better be damn sure that it's the right thing to do. I don't see it myself and think it's time to consider all our options.

I want them to acknowledge that maybe the plan isn’t working.

Perhaps the sum of the core parts are lacking a different dynamic.

That consider moving a piece like Marner isn’t out of hate or emotion but simply paying a 3rd forward 11 million who is goal challenged and regressing in the playoffs, focus and intensity issues should be a real consideration.

Admit that.

 

[Brown Dog]

I hope no one expected Shanahan and Leafs management to admit they made mistakes, nor there plan failed.

This was almost a defiant press conference with the same old "We can and we will" mentality to prove everyone wrong, that you can win with this core and with 4 players/forwards taking up 1/2 your cap.

There are some NHL execs that believe success is not possible as was mentioned on TSN that's hockey yesterday, but the Shanaplan is still going full speed ahead.

If you take the 18 highest AAV in the NHL only Carey Price a goalie is still playing into the 2nd round. No very promising for a team that has 3 of the top 7 highest in Matthews, Tavares and Marner. (Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps).

If there was any year to disprove this cap consumption theory it was this year because only 6 Canadian and 2 American teams was the most you had to face regular season and playoffs. However with Seattle joining there will be 31 other teams to play and compete against and a much tougher Div when Leafs return to the Atlantic and have TB and Boston and those fast charging Florida Panthers to deal with in addition to Montreal a team they just collapsed against, and the Metro Div from the East.

There is only so much you can do if you only have 1/2 a cap (~$40 mil) in a flat cap world to spend on minimum + 9 forwards + 7 Dmen + 2 Goalies or 18 players in addition to your core 4F. That's allows on average ~$2.2 mil per player.

I know we've all got our pitchforks and torches out and want to see heads on pikes. But I'm not into the whole self-flagellation thing (which Dubas loves to do and did again in his press conference this year).

Dubas has made mistakes, no doubt, but you can see what he was trying to do. For years it was the defense that was the problem. He tried to address this by moving Kadri for Brodie last year, then went to Plan B with Barrie when Kadri blocked the trade. When that failed, he went back to Brodie, who turned out to be exactly what we needed. Supplemented the D corps with Bogosian, who really solidified the bottom pairing and checked a lot of boxes (consistency, physicality/grit, experience, affordable contract). The defense this year was markedly improved in the regular season and throughout the series with Montreal to the point that nobody even really complains about it at all anymore.

We lacked important intangible qualities like "killer extinct," leadership, playoff experience. So he added Thornton, Simmonds, brought back Spezza, doubled down with Foligno at the deadline. It failed, but you can see the logic.

We're all complaining now that the cap allocation means we can't surround the core with adequate depth. But not 2 weeks ago, most of us were celebrating how crazy good our depth was and lamenting that guys like Galchenyuk and Brooks were getting pushed out of the lineup not because they weren't good enough but because we had too many good options!

I'm left to conclude that those intangible qualities that made the difference between winning and losing this year have to come from the core group. We can't graft them on by giving out league minimum contracts to veterans. I'd like to see the supporting roles filled with hungry younger players who bring speed, tenacity, finish their checks and are just generally a pain in the ass to play against.

 

[mydnyte]

Tampa
Stamkos 8.5 mil
Kuch 9.5
Hedman 7.9
Vasi 9.5
= 35.4 million for a #1 center, #1 winger, #1 D and #1 goalie

Leafs
Matthews 11.3
Marner 10.9
Tavares 11
Nylander 7
= 40.2 million for 2 #1 centers and 2 #1 wingers.

Not only are we paying more than Tampa, we also have all of it funneled to just 4 forwards!

Dubas should never have given out the contracts he did. No team has gone far in the playoffs with even 1 player making 10+ mil. We have 3.

Trying the same thing over and over but expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

include the year the contracts were signed to make it relevant, because BS otherwise
Stamkos 2016
Kuch 2018
Hedman 2016
Vasi 2019

Matthews 2019
Marner 2019
Tavares 2018
Nylander 2018

The Leafs are the team most impacted by the Covid "Flat Cap" becuse we had high end players to sign (2019) and were not expecting a Salary Cap Freeze for the next half decade.

2x 2016 should be a heck of a lot cheaper than the 2019 signings Kuch was considered a 'deal' at 9.5 in 2018 and Nylander was 'overpriced' at 6.9

 

[killer1980]

The fans might be tough on the team but the media sure wasn't. Did Dubas say he would bet his job that Leafs would go further in the playoffs this year? Not one reporter took him to task. I was around that situation way back when and it was disgusting how most reporters were just hockey groupies with stars in their eyes. They loved hanging out with the team and socializing with them. They knew one bad word and they would be out.

 

[Stephen]

I am still in shock and mourning over how the series ended...

...but it bears remembering that we twice came back from multi-goal 3rd period deficits to come within one goal of ending the series with an OT winner in Games 5 or 6.

Just one goal in either of those games and the narrative is completely different. One goal. Yes, it didn't happen (again!!), so the gap between success and failure sure seems like a chasm right now, but it really is frustratingly razor thin.

The thing that’s concerning is the two come backs came from the work of Muzzin, Brodie, Spezza and Galchenyuk. Just if we are so married to the core you’d want to see their fingerprints on those efforts because any one goal or combination of assist or goal from Matthews or Marner fighting through would have sent the team to the second round.

The other thing about “learning” is younger guys like Kotkaniemi and Suzuki are getting big game breakthrough experience on a nightly basis now. If Marner’s comparisons like Point and Rantanen and Aho are already established playoff performers and the next crop is ready to make a dent, the core really needs to understand that their legacies in the game aren’t a given.

For every Ovechkin or Yzerman that broke through with enough patience and won a cup there’s a Thornton, Spezza and Marleau who didn’t. And guys like Kovalchuk and Heatley who looked like the future of the game but lost their place fairly quickly. Time is ticking.

 

[sparxx87]

Washington's core at the beginning;
Ovi
Backstrom
Semin
Green

Their core when they won:
Ovy
Backstrom
Kuzy
Carlsson

The caps literally traded 2 of their core players before they won the cup. Following their model would actually require we trade 2 of our core.

Caps also stole both Carlson and Kuznetsov late in the first round while they were still a good team.

Dubas keeps trading 1st round picks to fix his cap problems.

 

[Beaumaris]

Blah blah blah blah... Same old bs. Looks like he's desperate to keep his job.

Question is: how has he kept it so long?

 

[egd27]

Is it worth not getting fair value for? No it’s not. You cannot trade one of the big four.

Define "fair value" please.

I’m in the exact same boat. I was livid with our star players after the game 7 loss, but I’ve calmed down and realized that if we’re going to win anything, these are going to be the guys to get it done.

Exactly what Shanahan & Dubas are counting on you believing. Need a new jersey or cap before next season?

 

[Mess]

In a way, they've sort of proved it is possible to be successful with 1/2 the cap going to 4 players by winning a regular season division title. They may have also proven that those 4 players need to be playoff monsters to do anything past the regular season. As those 4 players go, so goes the entire team. In regular season, Matthews and Marner had monster seasons. In the playoffs, they didn't get the job done so it was another exit at the hands of mediocrity.

As I mentioned this was an anomaly season of an all CDN div which was the weakest of all 4 because the #18 ranked Canadiens & #16 ranked Jets are still playing in the playoffs, and Montreal wouldn't even be in the playoffs if they played in any other Div.

Winning a regular season playing all 56 games against only 6 CDN based teams doesn't disprove the theory when you have to play against 31 other teams starting again next year. IMO

Also playoff style hockey is much different than the wide open regular season.. The fact that Art Ross (McDavid) and Rocket (Matthews) and their wingmen Draisaitl and Marner also top regular season scorers are all out and golfing, shows that strong goaltending Carey Price and Connor Hellebuyck, and better defensive play and systems rewards playoff teams. These are not even strong Cup contenders but the lowest ranked of all the remaining teams.

Leafs are trying to disprove 4 offensive forwards can mask and overcome all the teams goaltending and defensive and depth issues where "Defense wins" come playoff time. While that might be enough skill to get you into the playoffs the road usually ends in round #1.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner's contract is a dream for a lot of owners

Great age, young so he's marketable, his cap hit is high but his salary after we pay his signing bonus is 6.2M and he was top 5 point producer in the league.

You can find 20 teams interested.

Absolutely! I'm so sick of losing with these guys, it's fun to imagine trading not just Marnerbut Matthews as well and coming back next season with a completely new look.

He did a good job early on by relying on a management team with a track record of success to change the culture and develop a more professional attitude for the organization.

I'm willing to concede that mistakes were made and that it was time to move on from the coach and GM and let someone else build on what had been started. But hiring a management team that clearly put the needs of the individual player ahead of the overall organization has completely negated any progress that was made between 2015 and 2018.

IMO, at this point the "professionalism horse" is out of the barn and it's not likely to come back. Certainly not when the President and GM keep publicly stating how "they'll learn" while one $11M player laughs off questions, and another talks about how hard it was not hanging out with his friends.

Mixed feelings on this. I'm a huge Dubas fan, I think he's super smart and I think most of the moves he's made have been good ones. However, if he's stubbornly married to this core no matter what, that's a big problem. If his stance in private is that we won't consider moving even one of the big four, I'd start looking for a new GM.

Life is short, NHL careers are even shorter. Winning the cup is hard and there are a lot of good teams out there trying to win just like we are. Every year you throw away is huge and this season with the easiest road ever to the semis, pissing away that opportunity was giganormous.

I'd love to ask Dubas - do you stick with these guys forever no matter what? If you don't get past the first round for another year, two, three ... is there any point at all when you start to consider going in a different direction?

Must be nice to be Marner. Every time you fail you hear your boss talk about how good you are and how confident he is that you'll get it right eventually ...

 

[Brown Dog]

The thing that’s concerning is the two come backs came from the work of Muzzin, Brodie, Spezza and Galchenyuk. Just if we are so married to the core you’d want to see their fingerprints on those efforts because any one goal or combination of assist or goal from Matthews or Marner fighting through would have sent the team to the second round.

No doubt about it. The responsibility of this year's playoff failure rests mostly at the feet of Matthews and Marner (IMO), which is equal parts disappointing and disconcerting.

 

[ottomaddox]

I am still in shock and mourning over how the series ended...

...but it bears remembering that we twice came back from multi-goal 3rd period deficits to come within one goal of ending the series with an OT winner in Games 5 or 6.

Just one goal in either of those games and the narrative is completely different. One goal. Yes, it didn't happen (again!!), so the gap between success and failure sure seems like a chasm right now, but it really is frustratingly razor thin.

It might seem like that, but you also have a few moments where you have the makings of a legendary collapse. Bill Buckner moments, but 3 of them. Perhaps there were a few more.

You're only as good as you are. If you faulter and not shine in those big moments your legacy is never born. Only failure and futility beside your name.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

As Shannan said, the flat cap royally f***ed them. Is it an excuse? Yes but it doesn’t make it less true. The cap was expected to go up over the next 5 years when those deals were made, include a projected cap raise for this season. You couldn’t have predicted Covid.

Tampa is in a similar predicament but because their guys are never healthy and they abuse LTIR and they’ve won their cup no one gives them flack. But Tampa made it work by filling out their bottom 6 with the right guys

 

[Garthinater]

it took them at least 8 years before that change came. We are only 5 years in, Jesus. We are placing 16 years of unhappiness on these players which isn’t also fair to them. They weren’t here for a lot of that horrid past. So you have to give them time to build a legacy.

Tavares has been here for 3 years. Relax

Well we know the caps didn't win during those 8 years. If they had changed sooner maybe they would've won more.

Also I am not placing 16 years on these players. I am placing just the last 3.

16-17 and 17-18 were after coming dead last. I didn't expect to win either series.

But losing all 3 years from 18-19 is unacceptable.

Somehow the islanders without tavares have gone further than us each and every year.

The nhl is a result oriented business. Dubas needs to be fired.

 

[ottomaddox]

No doubt about it. The responsibility of this year's playoff failure rests mostly at the feet of Matthews and Marner (IMO), which is equal parts disappointing and disconcerting.

Agreed, but Keefe needs to be included at the top of the list.

He needs to be fired. You cannot win with him.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Absolutely! I'm so sick of losing with these guys, it's fun to imagine trading not just Marnerbut Matthews as well and coming back next season with a completely new look.



Mixed feelings on this. I'm a huge Dubas fan, I think he's super smart and I think most of the moves he's made have been good ones. However, if he's stubbornly married to this core no matter what, that's a big problem. If his stance in private is that we won't consider moving even one of the big four, I'd start looking for a new GM.

Life is short, NHL careers are even shorter. Winning the cup is hard and there are a lot of good teams out there trying to win just like we are. Every year you throw away is huge and this season with the easiest road ever to the semis, pissing away that opportunity was giganormous.

I'd love to ask Dubas - do you stick with these guys forever no matter what? If you don't get past the first round for another year, two, three ... is there any point at all when you start to consider going in a different direction?

Must be nice to be Marner. Every time you fail you hear your boss talk about how good you are and how confident he is that you'll get it right eventually ...

I'm of the mind to keep Matthews, centres like him don't grow on trees but you need to give him better linemates, Montreal mobbed him. Hyman and Marner weren't threats. I have no idea why Keefe never tried 88 with Matthews because he's a dual shot/pass threat.

 

[Stephen]

No doubt about it. The responsibility of this year's playoff failure rests mostly at the feet of Matthews and Marner (IMO), which is equal parts disappointing and disconcerting.

The big picture is a lot of us will be Leafs fans forever and what’s another wasted era? If and when they ever win the parade route is planned and hopefully we’ll be alive to see it.

But these kids don’t have forever in their careers and 5 years in, they’re already 25% through a 20 career. 33% through a 15 year career.

 

[Stephen]

No doubt about it. The responsibility of this year's playoff failure rests mostly at the feet of Matthews and Marner (IMO), which is equal parts disappointing and disconcerting.

I get the organization is trying to do some Theo Epstein type things with a young revolutionary management team. But a sophomore coach, a journeyman goalie turned workhorse and a rookie on the PP1 seems like they don’t really hesitate to put guys with no track records into key positions. Sometimes it works out but man is it risky.

 

[lottster14]

Remember when Dubas was getting a bit angry and giving shots to those suggesting we trade Marner last offseason? LOL. Weak leadership and management will continue to get this team nowhere.

 

[killer1980]

As I mentioned this was an anomaly season of an all CDN div which was the weakest of all 4 because the #18 ranked Canadiens & #16 ranked Jets are still playing in the playoffs, and Montreal wouldn't even be in the playoffs if they played in any other Div.

Winning a regular season playing all 56 games against only 6 CDN based teams doesn't disprove the theory when you have to play against 31 other teams starting again next year. IMO

Also playoff style hockey is much different than the wide open regular season.. The fact that Art Ross (McDavid) and Rocket (Matthews) and their wingmen Draisaitl and Marner also top regular season scorers are all out and golfing, shows that strong goaltending Carey Price and Connor Hellebuyck, and better defensive play and systems rewards playoff teams. These are not even strong Cup contenders but the lowest ranked of all the remaining teams.

Leafs are trying to disprove 4 offensive forwards can mask and overcome all the teams goaltending and defensive and depth issues where "Defense wins" come playoff time. While that might be enough skill to get you into the playoffs the road usually ends in round #1.

You got it! Don't see why it seems to be so hard to understand the playoffs are a different animal. 6 teams advanced to the 2nd round with less points than their opponents. All the talk during the presser was regular season and learning lessons. If you haven't learned your lessons by the time you get to this league and are making $11 million a year, I don't want you on my team.

 

[egd27]

Do you know the definition of insanity?

I hear they are thinking about changing it to "Believing the Leafs can close out a post season series"

 

[ottomaddox]

I'm of the mind to keep Matthews, centres like him don't grow on trees but you need to give him better linemates, Montreal mobbed him. Hyman and Marner weren't threats. I have no idea why Keefe never tried 88 with Matthews because he's a dual shot/pass threat.

It was shocking that it was never tried.

Other coaching tactics never touched in this series:

1. Benching players (short-term)
2. Calling a time out
3. Shuffling the power play
4. Using players you traded for at the trade deadline
5. Using Marlies (other than Sandin)

etc.

 

[egd27]

but it bears remembering that we twice came back from multi-goal 3rd period deficits to come within one goal of ending the series with an OT winner in Games 5 or 6.

You say that like it's a good thing.

 

[Stephen]

Caps also stole both Carlson and Kuznetsov late in the first round while they were still a good team.

Dubas keeps trading 1st round picks to fix his cap problems.

We need Amirov to be another Nylander. For example.