Wife and I were at the game, Bills logo viewed right-side up, 2nd row of upper deck, on the 27 yard line, exact yard line where Bass final attempt was, kicking from left to right in front of us.
Glad I didn't need some of these hot takes to keep me warm that night. I might have overheated.
Been busy with return travel and work / job. New job role since November has really limited my diversions to these boards. Will likely remain that way for many months.
Re: Bills Chiefs outcome - I've heard none of the TV talking heads, listened to no press conferences, etc., only read the takes here and any embedded print links each / all of you have posted. (Again, haven't listened to the audios, and probably won't. Time is precious.)
It was a great game with a disappointing result, but in no way unexpected.
Someone embedded some stat box from X / Twitter that this was the 1st game in the Super Bowl Era with >XXX yards passing, >YYY yards rushing, zero interceptions, no fumbles lost, and no sacks allowed, and >zz:zz time of possession where the team lost. Well, if the Bills won, there likely would have been a similar stat box about the Chiefs without sacks or interceptions and all but one drive not curtailed by the halftime / end of game resulting in points and still losing.
As much as I hate to use excuses here, in the end, it was the defensive injuries that did them in. I won't include the White injury because they replaced him with Douglas, so it's a bit of a wash there. But Milano, Benard, Benford, Rapp and Davis was simply too much. Find me a team missing 5 starters, 4 of them on defense, and see how many playoff games they win. And Buffalo almost still won.
Part of me is angry that we couldn't close from the 20 yard line at the 2 minute mark, but, the reality is, we should have won that game going away if we get 1 stop earlier in the game. They were able to drive down the field on us without regard for the entire first half. If we were able to hit one of those deep shots, we win. If we were able to put any sort of defense to limit Kelce, we win. Why didn't we have those? Because our linebacker core was decimated by injuries. Why couldn't we hit a deep shot? Because our best deep route runner was injured.
I think there is blame to go around, but the reality of it is, injuries played a huge role here. And it f***ing sucks seeing probably our best chance at a trophy get pissed away.
If I was to type a summary of my feelings at 9:35 Sunday night, Monday night, Tuesday night, last night - they would match the above exactly.
the Bills defense was decimated, got gashed for 8-9-10+ yard runs, or YAC pass plays, and only had 1 defensive stop (minus the touchback fumble) for a punt, yet still hung in there well enough to the end despite the depleted talent. they rarely got the Chiefs offense to 3rd down, but were stout when they did. Put one or two of those injured players back on the field - even for half the game - and I think the Bills aren't driving to win at the end, they are driving to protect a lead for the win.
The Bills game plan was extremely effective at controlling time of possession. I remember looking at the stadium scoreboard several times and the gap was absolutely monstrous. It was an effective plan, well-executed until nearly the end.
the officiating was in no way perfect but at least it didn't determine the outcome of the game. I've been watching NFL & NCAA for decades and seen batted ball called three or four times. Regardless, as another poster noted, it was the right play and if you can't fully recover it, getting it out of bounds batted or not is the right play for the Bill player involved. The Chiefs pick play on the LOS passing play resulting in the defensive hold (or whatever it was) often gets ignored. The defensive PI against the Bills on the right side of the field (right in front of us) when the play went left and Mahomes read/progression never even moved his neck/head to the right of his torso should not have been called. there were uncalled KC O-line holds. I am surprised the Bills got the touchback fumble. On the stadium review scoreboard, it didn't look like there was enough to overturn it.
A reminder that this isn’t just about injuries on D and that Mahomes has thrashed every McDermott D in the playoffs
Rebuild it and let him try again?
Stupidity
Absolutely criminal to ignore this when you get the QB.
You wonder why we don’t get over the hump? This is why
Without context of additional factors - e.g., the quality of the Packer O-line and D-line entering those drafts, etc., you can choose any selective stats to paint a picture.
I look forward to NFL teams renaming "00" personnel or "empty" sets to the "Ace package". However, to go "full Ace" (or "5 Aces" as in poker with wild cards), I'd expect the Bills to go one step further and carry 10-12 WRs on the roster. That way, you can have effectively two full platoons of receivers. That'll keep them fresh enough so each receiver can run 3-4 miles of "go" routes each game. By distributing the ball evenly, you can keep the stats down for those 10-12 WRs and control the costs of their next contracts. Then, you only need to decide whether to carry 1 running back on the roster, or have some of your receivers play defense (Line, Linebacker, D-back - doesn't matter when your offensive balance is 80 passes 10 rushes (all QB scrambles) while scoring 90 points a game and passing for 770 yards). One of those WRs playing two-ways will eventually make a tackle.
Ultimately, when it comes down to it, Mahomes is just a little bit better than Allen.
The Chiefs are just a little bit better than the Bills.
We're like the Utah Jazz of the 1990s except the Chicago Bulls play in our conference and Mahomes isn't going to go on hiatus to play baseball.
Nah, Mahomes and Allen aren't on the field at the same time except for the coin toss and a hug. This game was akin to the Jan 1996 Bills-Steelers game where Bruce Smith couldn't play because of the flu. A key injury tilted the field the other way. Sunday, it was several injuries to non-HOF'ers
I have a hard time picturing the Pegulas being ok with a bit of a reset. It’s easy thinking, give this group another go.
What some of you guys are proposing isn’t a retool, but more of an overhaul. Moving on from 5-6 big starters is huge. I’m not against it, but I just don’t see it happening.
It’s easy for us loyal fans to say let’s take a step back one season so we can hopefully take 2 steps forward the following season.
I would hate to be BB this off-season. Lot of difficult decisions.
Not a rebuttal
per se, but BB is paid plenty of money to make those decisions and that is the reason he was hired. I've been pleased with his decisions so far. Von Miller got injured and didn't recover, but I don't think he can be blamed for that. He's let some talent go which has had success elsewhere, but most every GM if they are around long enough have that happen. I'm not worried re: Beane, but agree this will be his most challenging offseason to date, for the reasons you cite.
It is no longer financially unviable to shed Diggs' salary. Post June 1, but a cut or trade is no longer that painful. Dead money for sure, but cap savings as well.
Oh, and McDermott is not getting fired. Nor should he be. He coached well enough to win that game. Some key players were injured, others didn't make plats when they needed to.
Agreed.
Bass kick.
Cook catch.
Diggs catch on sideline bomb right in front of us..
Diggs not going 3 catches for 8 targets.
Allen sees Diggs underneath on final set of downs.
Allen not bumped on final series throw.
Someone, anyone, stopping Pacheco or Edwards-Hellaire on just one of their long-gainers.
I read that the Giants are requesting an interview with Babich, the Bills' linebacker coach, for DC. I wonder if the Bills promote him instead, and pursue Luke Keuchly as Babich's replacement.
Why Luke Keuchly? He has a great deal in broadcasting, made bank as a player, doesn't need to spend 7+ months of the year working 80 hours a week, and doesn't need to convince his wife to move. I've been in North Carolina and watched his entire pro career. Great human. Great linebacker. Unknown as a coach. Not my first choice.
I don't think a hard reset requires them to move away from McDermott. Belichick hard reset his defense after the 2007 Super Bowl loss, and then hard reset his offense after the 2nd Giants Super Bowl loss.
I think Beane and McDermott have to answer this question:
Can the current roster, with the required cuts, and with draft reinforcements, win the Super Bowl?
If the answer is yes, then they don't hard reset. They cut players, and re-structure others, add rookies, and go back at it.
If the answer is no, then they at least have to consider the hard reset option.
Even a hard reset option leaves some pieces. Allen will still be behind the same offensive line and with most of the same receivers. And Cook is still running behind that line. It's not a bad way to rebuild.
The bolded are the key questions.
To some extent the post-loss reactions are too KC-centric.
Agree on a lot of this. I do think the hard reset is possible though. It's at least got to be on the table for Beane and McDermott to talk through. The cap issues and age of the roster really make is at least a consideration.
Bills version 1 under Allen is over. Bills version 2 is about to begin. I think Allen gets 3-4 different versions of the Bills as long as he's healthy.
You've championed that "phased" career view before, with comparison to former players / eras, and I agree it's valid. The Jordan Bulls didn't hit their dominant phase until Pippen was on board and they had a complement to Jordan. The Kelly Bills didn't hit their 2nd gear, team-success-wise, until Lofton arrived to stretch the field (and give good downfield blocks).
That first bullet ends any hard reset this offseason ideas to me.
Conversely, two days after a season-ending loss, it does no service to players (whether they are signed or pending UFAs) nor fans to declare it's time to blow it up. A statement like that would throw gasoline on the post-loss fire. It's media relations 101.
This is a great take that I fully agree with. It's one thing to match 12 or 21 to base. But when you're talking about 22 or 13 we just can't. We got gashed in those matchups. I get Taron is their best player and they don't want him on the bench. But we need to have some 3 LB packages next next season. Maybe 4-3, Taron, and just a single FS over the top?
Not rebutting, but adding on to the topic of depleted LB corps and either you or
@Dingo44 questioning why Beane was so late subbing in the better athlete, Dorian Williams, for the aging and essentially retired AJ Klein. Pretty sure Klein, having been in the Bills' system for several years, was trusted by McDermott to call the defensive alignments. they likely lacked that confidence with Williams.
Extending Johnson and Douglas are smart decisions. Add in Benford, and it makes moving on from White easier to stomach. If Beane doesn't extend them, the position will be gutted next off-season.
I'd rather keep Hamlin just for the fact that Buffalo has no safeties and $1M isn't that much to save.
I'd rather try to draft an OT now and let Dawkins walk. I don't see him continuing the same level of high play.
Everything else looks like good moves for the Bills. It's leaving the Bills with less holes of positions which get gutted.
Agree with all of this. I don't play with draft simulators like you and others do. I follow college, but don't survey players to the extent you and others do. They need to consciously get younger, or at least not be afraid to do so.
I share similar concerns re: Dawkins. It was a good year for him, best in BUF. How much of that was due to better overall play and health from the entire line, vs. DD himself - both in terms of his play and reduced penalties (my eye test)? What should we expect next year? I'm willing to kick the LT can down the road a year at the draft if a reasonable value isn't there, but, in general, a large part of the Bills success this season was the (several) incremental talent upgrades on O-line combined with remarkably good health in contrast with 2022.
There's a potential danger in specifically molding a Bills team to (eventually, in the 18th, 19th, or 20th game of the year) beat KC, as too many of you are perhaps focused.
Taking the higher-level view:
Many of us were pleased when Daboll would no longer wear a 4XL Bills game-day wardrobe, believing he turned "too cute" and "out-smarted" himself if that is actually possible. Dorsey was a breath of fresh air - passionate, didn't get too cute. Brady was more balanced in his scheme & approach, and it was rejuvenating.
If Brady had been OC longer this season, or all of this season, do the Bills win any of these games?
@_Jets L 16-22 (6 pts) in OT
neutral Jags L 20-25 (5 pts) [strictly speaking Jags London was a Bills home game]
@_Pats L 25-29 (4 pts)
@Bengals L 18-24 (6 pts)
vs. Broncos L 22-24 (2 pts) axe falls after this loss
@ Eagles L 34-37 (3 pts) in OT
Six losses by a combined 26 points, average of 4.33 points, 2 losses in OT.
Add KC playoffs, seven losses by total 29 points, 4.1 point average, 2 losses in OT.
Despite the defensive injuries beginning in game 1 and lasting / increasing all season, the return of Von Miller as an essential non-factor, and the transition from Dorsey to Brady, the Bills finished the season, despite their tough schedule relative to league average, with a +140 regular season point differential (+151 w/ playoffs) to go with those 6 (7) losses. Those differentials were 4th best in NFL this season. For perspective, the three teams with higher differential were all ~200 points vs. the Bills 140. Unless I missed something, every other NFL team was no better than +70-80 point differential (except +100 Dolphins, who didn't beat a winning team all season, save the Cowboys, and only by 2 points).
13-4 (14-4) Ravens +203 (+227) Note: NFL's best scoring defense.
12-5 (12-6) Cowboys +194 (+178) Note: Beat only1 winning team (PHI) in 2023.
12-5 (13-5) Niners +193 (+196) Note: NFL's 3rd-best scoring defense.
11-6 (12-7) Bills +140 (+151) Note: 6 wins against teams with winning records, includes Dolphins counted twice.
Bright spots this year (just some):
Cook replacing Singletary, and others, as clear #1 and versatile.
O-line stability, both in terms of injuries and total unit play.
The loss of Tremaine Edmunds rendered moot by Terrell Bernard.
Dodson, Benford, Douglas, etc., stepping in and stepping up.
Ed Oliver solid.
2023 draft choices Kincaid and lesser extent Torrence panning out.