Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Selanne00008]

Extending Johnson and Douglas are smart decisions. Add in Benford, and it makes moving on from White easier to stomach. If Beane doesn't extend them, the position will be gutted next off-season.

I'd rather keep Hamlin just for the fact that Buffalo has no safeties and $1M isn't that much to save.

I'd rather try to draft an OT now and let Dawkins walk. I don't see him continuing the same level of high play.

Everything else looks like good moves for the Bills. It's leaving the Bills with less holes of positions which get gutted.

I wouldn't mind this but, I think this can simply wait a year for the draft. Too many other 100% certain holes to fill now. letting him walk and having that gap just means you don't draft as high at another very high need (wr/safety/db get dumped down a round)

 

[Husko]

I wouldn't mind this but, I think this can simply wait a year for the draft. Too many other 100% certain holes to fill now. letting him walk and having that gap just means you don't draft as high at another very high need (wr/safety/db get dumped down a round)

I think it depends. Bills need help all over. OT is such a hard position to find outside the first, if there's someone they think it a blue chip prospect that falls to where they're picking, I think you take him no question. Similar to WR. In both cases, I'm questionable whether a player worthy of being taken where we're drafting falls to us. I think WR is more likely than OT, though.

Cooper Dejean is the only DB that really interests me in the first.

More likely than not, I imagine DL or WR provides the best value relative to our need.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I still think Hynes is returning which I can’t wrap my head around

 

[Selanne00008]

I think it depends. Bills need help all over. OT is such a hard position to find outside the first, if there's someone they think it a blue chip prospect that falls to where they're picking, I think you take him no question. Similar to WR. In both cases, I'm questionable whether a player worthy of being taken where we're drafting falls to us. I think WR is more likely than OT, though.

Cooper Dejean is the only DB that really interests me in the first.

More likely than not, I imagine DL or WR provides the best value relative to our need.

Agreed. I also don't think safety is really a position you need to draft high. If I had to guess I would think we go WR, then DE/DT, then safety. but again depends how it falls.

By the way, i'm guessing we don't know our draft position yet? Im guessing it's one of only a couple spots?

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Every time I read this thread title I think it's a Sabres GDT

 

[Mike McDermott]

 

[Dubi Doo]

Fangio is leaving MIA for Philly.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Harbough to the Chargers. Good QB to start with.

 

[buffa dud]

Fangio is leaving MIA for Philly.

And looking at their cap situation is just pure comedy.

 

[Dirty Dog]

And looking at their cap situation is just pure comedy.

PAY TUA

 

[sabresfan129103]

Harbough to the Chargers. Good QB to start with.

That was probably a big selling point of the job. You could tell the itch to get back into the NFL was there though. The rumors have certainly been there long enough.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Agreed. I also don't think safety is really a position you need to draft high. If I had to guess I would think we go WR, then DE/DT, then safety. but again depends how it falls.

By the way, i'm guessing we don't know our draft position yet? Im guessing it's one of only a couple spots?

We're drafting #28 - last among division round losers because we had the best record among them. (Houston 10-7, Green Bay and Tampa Bay 9-8 each)

 

[Selanne00008]

We're drafting #28 - last among division round losers because we had the best record among them. (Houston 10-7, Green Bay and Tampa Bay 9-8 each)

well that stinks

 

[Der Jaeger]

I wouldn't mind this but, I think this can simply wait a year for the draft. Too many other 100% certain holes to fill now. letting him walk and having that gap just means you don't draft as high at another very high need (wr/safety/db get dumped down a round)

Let me explain the lens which is see this through.

I think the Bills have 4 different teams for Allen to lead during his career. Team 1 just ended and we’re entering into Team 2.

I bucket players into those teams, and some cross over or at least have potential to cross over.

Dawkins, Davis, Morse, White, Poyer, Hyde, Jones, and possibly Diggs and Miller, are all Team 1 guys.

Johnson and Douglas are young enough and playing well enough to transition into Team 2, which would require and extension.

From a raw team building perspective, there a things the Bills need around Allen. These are essential for success:

LT
C
#1 receiver
Strong ground game
Pass rushers
Cover corners
System specific safeties
Impact defenders

If Jordan Morgan is there at 28, I take him in a nanosecond. LTs are hard to find. So you are taking your Team 2 LT. I don’t think Dawkins is here past next season.

And about receiver: I think Kincaid supplants Diggs next season as Allen’s primary target. Since the day he was drafted, I’ve written on these boards that Shakir isn’t a slot receiver; he’s a Diggs clone. Why go after a receiver if you think you’ve got that on the roster?

When you start thinking about filling out Team 2, you start to look at players you might not consider initially.

With that in mind, and with the large amount of mock drafts I’ve done this season, if Jordan Morgan is there at 28 (and he might not be), you take your Allen Team 2 LT and solidify the offensive line for the next run.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[beerme1]

Please fix the title. Bills and Sabres season over

 

[Jim Bob]

I would hope not. But stubbornness to adapt is one of my biggest gripes against McDermott. I like him, I don't want him fired, but things like playing AJ Klein for 100% of snaps despite him getting burned all game and refusing to match 13 personnel with heavier personnel packages are exactly the kinds of mistakes I'd expect McDermott to make.

Again, not to beat a dead horse, but options he had:
-When we're in nickel, play Williams over Klein
-Against heavier personnel, take a FS or CB off the field in exchange for an extra LB (Williams) or DL to combat getting gashed against heavy packages
-Not dedicate a roster spot to a player (Matakevich) that apparently so incapable of playing defense that he can't even see the field for a single snap when every other player ahead of him on the depth chart all season got hurt

I'm not calling for McDermott's head. But these are the sort of things he needs to evolve on.

They did not trust Williams or Dodson with the green dot since they spent almost all season at WLB.

With respect to the core STs guys, the cap crunch might force them to move on from veterans in those STs spots and rely on day 3 rookies to try and get it done.

 

[truthbluth]

I don’t think Dawkins is here past next season.

A good chunk of your argument hinges on the assumption above being correct. I'm curious why you'd think that. Dawkins seems like a prime extension candidate to me. Franchise LTs are incredibly hard to find. Draft high in the 1st round or get lucky. Those are the only two ways to get one. Also, they tend to have long careers, with onoy QBs and Kickers/punters having statistically longer average careers. Dawkins is only 29, which suggests he has at least 3, but as many as 5 more years of solid play before he hits the age where Tackles typically decline. Also, and extension probably allows you to lower his cap hit.

I don't know, to me, when you have a QB like Josh, a real super bowl contending caliber QB, you can't afford to spend high draft picks that don't play immediately. I think the pick has to be a dlineman. Thinnest position on the roster, and typically a good position group at the end of the 1st round.

 

[Jim Bob]

Let me explain the lens which is see this through.

I think the Bills have 4 different teams for Allen to lead during his career. Team 1 just ended and we’re entering into Team 2.

I bucket players into those teams, and some cross over or at least have potential to cross over.

Dawkins, Davis, Morse, White, Poyer, Hyde, Jones, and possibly Diggs and Miller, are all Team 1 guys.

Johnson and Douglas are young enough and playing well enough to transition into Team 2, which would require and extension.

From a raw team building perspective, there a things the Bills need around Allen. These are essential for success:

LT
C
#1 receiver
Strong ground game
Pass rushers
Cover corners
System specific safeties
Impact defenders

If Jordan Morgan is there at 28, I take him in a nanosecond. LTs are hard to find. So you are taking your Team 2 LT. I don’t think Dawkins is here past next season.

And about receiver: I think Kincaid supplants Diggs next season as Allen’s primary target. Since the day he was drafted, I’ve written on these boards that Shakir isn’t a slot receiver; he’s a Diggs clone. Why go after a receiver if you think you’ve got that on the roster?

When you start thinking about filling out Team 2, you start to look at players you might not consider initially.

With that in mind, and with the large amount of mock drafts I’ve done this season, if Jordan Morgan is there at 28 (and he might not be), you take your Allen Team 2 LT and solidify the offensive line for the next run.

Given the cap situation, I think an extension for Dawkins to lower his 2024 cap hit is way more likely than cutting him and moving to a rookie.

Plus, Dawkins is their back-to-back Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee and a huge part of the organization.

And if you think Rasul Douglas is young enough to be a part of the team moving forward, then Dawkins should be, as well. Dawkins is less than 6 months older than Douglas. And OTs tend to have longer careers than CBs.



I need to watch this today.

Update: here are the levers that Greg sees happening to just get to the point where they can sign their draft picks:

With $25-30M in cap space, he expects the offseason to look similar to last year where they sign their draft picks, they roll the dice on cheap vets on 1 yr $1.77M deals like Rapp & Edwards got last year, and then 1 or 2 $5-9M guys like Floyd, McGovern, & Harty were last year.

 

[Jim Bob]

I threw this episode of The QB Room in my podcast "Listen To" playlist.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Trepasso Mock Draft

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft/

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[buffa dud]

Given the cap situation, I think an extension for Dawkins to lower his 2024 cap hit is way more likely than cutting him and moving to a rookie.

Plus, Dawkins is their back-to-back Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee and a huge part of the organization.

And if you think Rasul Douglas is young enough to be a part of the team moving forward, then Dawkins should be, as well. Dawkins is less than 6 months older than Douglas. And OTs tend to have longer careers than CBs.



I need to watch this today.

Update: here are the levers that Greg sees happening to just get to the point where they can sign their draft picks:

View attachment 810060

Couple thoughts:

I like who they're extending in this proposal, but if you're extending Dawkins you have to cut Morse. By locking down Dawkins, it affords you the opportunity to go young at C. The young C can then gain some experience while Beane cleans up on Morse's cap savings, and in two years when Dawkins' contract expires he can then explore going young at LT.

Similar thoughts to Rasoul and Tre. If you're extending Rasoul, you have to move on from Tre. His injury history, age, and contract structure (unfortunately) all set Tre up to be a cut - not unlike Morse.

Harty and Hines have to be gone.

Someone might need to explain the math to me, because I don't see how Oliver's restructure results in a nearly $4M savings. I thought it was something closer to $1-2M.

Other players I'd consider restructuring before Diggs: Knox and Milano.

I also don't see us bringing back Epenesa or Davis. They're going to fall in the same bucket as Tremaine where, they did well enough in Buffalo, but the market's goin to dictate change.

 

[Der Jaeger]

A good chunk of your argument hinges on the assumption above being correct. I'm curious why you'd think that. Dawkins seems like a prime extension candidate to me. Franchise LTs are incredibly hard to find. Draft high in the 1st round or get lucky. Those are the only two ways to get one. Also, they tend to have long careers, with onoy QBs and Kickers/punters having statistically longer average careers. Dawkins is only 29, which suggests he has at least 3, but as many as 5 more years of solid play before he hits the age where Tackles typically decline. Also, and extension probably allows you to lower his cap hit.

I don't know, to me, when you have a QB like Josh, a real super bowl contending caliber QB, you can't afford to spend high draft picks that don't play immediately. I think the pick has to be a dlineman. Thinnest position on the roster, and typically a good position group at the end of the 1st round.

Not really. Even if the Bills extend Dawkins and don't take an OT in the 1st round, I'm still not taking a WR unless he's BPA. I'd rather take a player like Kamren Kitchens.

Given the cap situation, I think an extension for Dawkins to lower his 2024 cap hit is way more likely than cutting him and moving to a rookie.

Plus, Dawkins is their back-to-back Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee and a huge part of the organization.

And if you think Rasul Douglas is young enough to be a part of the team moving forward, then Dawkins should be, as well. Dawkins is less than 6 months older than Douglas. And OTs tend to have longer careers than CBs.



I need to watch this today.

Update: here are the levers that Greg sees happening to just get to the point where they can sign their draft picks:

View attachment 810060

View attachment 810081
With $25-30M in cap space, he expects the offseason to look similar to last year where they sign their draft picks, they roll the dice on cheap vets on 1 yr $1.77M deals like Rapp & Edwards got last year, and then 1 or 2 $5-9M guys like Floyd, McGovern, & Harty were last year.

To be clear, I never advocated cutting Dawkins. Just letting his contract play out and drafting his replacement. My idea and cutting are far different when you talk about a player like Dawkins.

 

[Jim Bob]

To be clear, I never advocated cutting Dawkins. Just letting his contract play out and drafting his replacement. My idea and cutting are far different when you talk about a player like Dawkins.

Still, I do not think that planning to move on from Dawkins after the 2024 season and ignoring major needs at WR, DT, and DE to draft a backup OT to be his replacement in future years is a road they would consider going down.

Couple thoughts:

I like who they're extending in this proposal, but if you're extending Dawkins you have to cut Morse. By locking down Dawkins, it affords you the opportunity to go young at C. The young C can then gain some experience while Beane cleans up on Morse's cap savings, and in two years when Dawkins' contract expires he can then explore going young at LT.

Similar thoughts to Rasoul and Tre. If you're extending Rasoul, you have to move on from Tre. His injury history, age, and contract structure (unfortunately) all set Tre up to be a cut - not unlike Morse.

Harty and Hines have to be gone.

Someone might need to explain the math to me, because I don't see how Oliver's restructure results in a nearly $4M savings. I thought it was something closer to $1-2M.

Other players I'd consider restructuring before Diggs: Knox and Milano.

I also don't see us bringing back Epenesa or Davis. They're going to fall in the same bucket as Tremaine where, they did well enough in Buffalo, but the market's goin to dictate change.

The only way either of them is back in 2024 is if the FA market isn't there for them ala Poyer last year. But, they are both young enough that I bet some other team gives them a contract that the Bills will choose not to compete with like when Lawson and Phillips and Tremaine all left over recent years.