Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Jim Bob]

 

[Husko]

This is a great take that I fully agree with. It's one thing to match 12 or 21 to base. But when you're talking about 22 or 13 we just can't. We got gashed in those matchups. I get Taron is their best player and they don't want him on the bench. But we need to have some 3 LB packages next next season. Maybe 4-3, Taron, and just a single FS over the top?

 

[Jim Bob]

I think that's more about what you call it. They won't say "hard reset." But I do think they're going to cut Tre, Poyer, and other cap-saving options (but not Morse) and try to limit pushing money into the future as much as possible. But yeah, think more Chief 2022 than Bills 2018.

A hard reset would be cutting Diggs & Von and taking their cap medicine to free up cap space down the road.

They are going to keep doing what they have been the past few off seasons where they pull all the levers they can to create as much cap space as they can to try and get as much talent on the roster as possible. Future cap be damned.

This is a great take that I fully agree with. It's one thing to match 12 or 21 to base. But when you're talking about 22 or 13 we just can't. We got gashed in those matchups. I get Taron is their best player and they don't want him on the bench. But we need to have some 3 LB packages next next season. Maybe 4-3, Taron, and just a single FS over the top?

Sorry, but with the only LBs active being Klein, Dodson, Williams, and Matakavich, this is not a great take, IMO.

Having Klein, Dodson, and Williams out there in a 4-3 alignment still gets gashed in the run game.

 

[Husko]

Anyone have a good pulse on corners around the league coming off their rookie contracts that underwhelmed and could be ripe for a move to safety? That's a market I fully expect us to be in. That's where we found Hyde and Poyer

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Husko]

A hard reset would be cutting Diggs & Von and taking their cap medicine to free up cap space down the road.

They are going to keep doing what they have been the past few off seasons where they pull all the levers they can to create as much cap space as they can to try and get as much talent on the roster as possible. Future cap be damned.


Sorry, but with the only LBs active being Klein, Dodson, Williams, and Matakavich, this is not a great take, IMO.

Having Klein, Dodson, and Williams out there in a 4-3 alignment still gets gashed in the run game.

Those moves aren't even on the table because they would add to the cap, not reduce it. We'd have to push other money into the future just to free up money to do that now. It wouldn't actually save anyhting, short term or long. Only way they cut Von is if he gets suspended and they can get out of his guarantees (which I expect they'd jump at the chance to do). Anyone expecting those moves is delusional.

As to your second point, I don't know if they're going to keep pulling all the levers. I don't think Beane wants this to turn into a Saints situation.

As for your final point about the linebackers. I see what you mean, but the Bills were playing 6 defensive backs against three tight ends and a running back. I get the LB options were uninspiring. But that personnel matchup is just asking to get gashed and that's exactly what happened. Maybe the move was 5 down linemen if they were that afraid to let Williams play.

 

[Jim Bob]

Those moves aren't even on the table because they would add to the cap, not reduce it. We'd have to push other money into the future just to free up money to do that now. It wouldn't actually save anyhting, short term or long. Only way they cut Von is if he gets suspended and they can get out of his guarantees (which I expect they'd jump at the chance to do). Anyone expecting those moves is delusional.

As to your second point, I don't know if they're going to keep pulling all the levers. I don't think Beane wants this to turn into a Saints situation.

As for your final point about the linebackers. I see what you mean, but the Bills were playing 6 defensive backs against three tight ends and a running back. I get the LB options were uninspiring. But that personnel matchup is just asking to get gashed and that's exactly what happened. Maybe the move was 5 down linemen if they were that afraid to let Williams play.

The original complaint was Taron playing in their base nickel set against 13 personnel.

KC was moving the ball on the ground largely because they have the best G-C-G combination in the game and they consistently won against the Bills DTs. Swapping Williams for TJ does not overcome the fact that the Chiefs consistently won the battle in the trenches when they were on offense.

And on the "hard reset" talk, moves like getting rid of Diggs does save all the future base salary Diggs has remaining (roughly $70M over the last 4 years of his deal). If they were to cut or trade Diggs post-6/1, that does save $8.8M against the 2024 cap and $5M against the 2025 cap given his cap numbers without any further restructures. And it frees up $28M in 2026 & $22.5M in 2027.

It won't happen, but to say there is no long term cap benefit is not really the case.

 

[truthbluth]

That's brutal. Only way I'd move on from Diggs is (1) We're getting a significant asset back in a trade; and (2) His cap is off the books in 2025

To be clear, it's only brutal if you can't replace what he offers with $5 million. If he was playing hurt, and he'll be better, no way. But if you could get a 3rd for him, and draft a guy in the 3rd this year, who is contributing significantly in year two, the dead cap is cheaper than having Stef on the roster.

 

[Dirty Dog]

The original complaint was Taron playing in their base nickel set against 13 personnel.

KC was moving the ball on the ground largely because they have the best G-C-G combination in the game and they consistently won against the Bills DTs. Swapping Williams for TJ does not overcome the fact that the Chiefs consistently won the battle in the trenches when they were on offense.

For those of us without instagram, what’s that Hyde thing say?

 

[Husko]

The original complaint was Taron playing in their base nickel set against 13 personnel.

KC was moving the ball on the ground largely because they have the best G-C-G combination in the game and they consistently won against the Bills DTs. Swapping Williams for TJ does not overcome the fact that the Chiefs consistently won the battle in the trenches when they were on offense.

Right. It's matching 5 DBs against 3 TEs/1RB/1 WR. The "standard" alignment against that would be 4 DL and 4 LB. By having nickel, we're two layers off from that. I think with only 1 WR on the field, they needed to reduce the number of DBs by at least one, be it taking a CB or a FS off the field.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Jim Bob]

For those of us without instagram, what’s that Hyde thing say?

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Ace]

Chris Brown says they’ve put themselves so far behind the eight ball at WR they need to use two picks on day one and two on the position.

He’s right.

Of course it was the las two years they needed to do that…but better late than never for him to figure that out.

As for McBeane acknowledging the need for big play weapons today…actions speak louder than words. I will believe it when it happens. two years too late at best.

 

[Jim Bob]

Chris Brown says they’ve put themselves so far behind the eight ball at WR they need to use two picks on day one and two on the position.

He’s right.

Of course it was the las two years they needed to do that…but better late than never for him to figure that out.

As for McBeane acknowledging the need for big play weapons today…actions speak louder than words. I will believe it when it happens. two years too late at best.

Beane took a swing on a playmaker at WR last offseason. It just didn't work out well because Harty lost a ton of explosiveness with the turf toe and subsequent surgery last season.

Like every GM, Beane has hits (Floyd, Oliver extension, betting on Bernard and Brown improving) and misses (Harty, Sherfield, and Von due to the ACL).

At WR, he missed with Harty and Sherfield, but he hit on a day 3 draft pick in Shakir.

 

[DapperCam]

No one predicted Diggs falling off a cliff, and it really hurt us. We were “okay” at the position because he was a top-5 receiver. The entire scheme depended on him being able to draw double coverage and even beat it sometimes.

 

[Husko]

I really don't think Diggs fell off a cliff. He looked as good as ever under Dorsey. Brady did a better job of scheming to other guys when teams were taking Diggs away. Maybe not the top 3 receiver he was a year ago, but he's still very good.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Chris Brown says they’ve put themselves so far behind the eight ball at WR they need to use two picks on day one and two on the position.

He’s right.

Of course it was the las two years they needed to do that…but better late than never for him to figure that out.

As for McBeane acknowledging the need for big play weapons today…actions speak louder than words. I will believe it when it happens. two years too late at best.

You're so off base on this take.

Shakir is going to be good next year. Kincaid could emerge as the #1 target ahead of Diggs.

Draft Brendan Rice in the 2nd round, and bring in low end UFA receivers (Sherfield types) and the position is fine.

Drafting receivers high isn't fixing the defense. They need one: a replacement for Davis. That's it.

 

[Sabreality]

You're so off base on this take.

Shakir is going to be good next year. Kincaid could emerge as the #1 target ahead of Diggs.

Draft Brendan Rice in the 2nd round, and bring in low end UFA receivers (Sherfield types) and the position is fine.

Drafting receivers high isn't fixing the defense. They need one: a replacement for Davis. That's it.

Bargain bin WR I'd like to look at is Mack Hollins. He popped a bit with Raiders 2 years ago in his only year there (57/690/4td), along with having a top PFF WR blocking grade, then signed with Arthur Smiths aerial wasteland in ATL, who likely targeted him for his blocking ability. 6'4" 220lb, 4.5 40...sort of a dollar store Gabe.

 

[1specter]

I really don't think Diggs fell off a cliff. He looked as good as ever under Dorsey. Brady did a better job of scheming to other guys when teams were taking Diggs away. Maybe not the top 3 receiver he was a year ago, but he's still very good.

Genuinely wonder if he was playing hurt as well. I'm not ready to move on just yet personally cause when he is on he is great.

 

[Husko]

Bargain bin WR I'd like to look at is Mack Hollins. He popped a bit with Raiders 2 years ago in his only year there (57/690/4td), along with having a top PFF WR blocking grade, then signed with Arthur Smiths aerial wasteland in ATL, who likely targeted him for his blocking ability. 6'4" 220lb, 4.5 40...sort of a dollar store Gabe.

That's a good one. Also very likely to be a very different skillset than Diggs, Shakir, and whoever they draft at WR (they always put more emphasis on separators)

 

[Zman5778]

Bargain bin WR I'd like to look at is Mack Hollins. He popped a bit with Raiders 2 years ago in his only year there (57/690/4td), along with having a top PFF WR blocking grade, then signed with Arthur Smiths aerial wasteland in ATL, who likely targeted him for his blocking ability. 6'4" 220lb, 4.5 40...sort of a dollar store Gabe.

Damn. Nice find. Totally forgot about him, but I remember kinda liking him with the Raiders.

Him and Shorter would give us two bigger red zone targets.

If Hollins can play ST alongside Shorter....
That'd be ideal.

I'm a fan of this idea.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Chiefs-Bills delivers best NFL Divisional Round audience with 50.4 million viewers

CBS drew 50.4 million viewers for Sunday's Chiefs-Bills game, which is the best NFL Divisional Round audience on record.

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

 

[DolanPlsGoSabres]

Finally digested everything....
Lost in the wash is that making the AFCCG can be very match-up dependent.

We didn't run into KC until the AFCCG in 2020 because we finished 1-2.
We ran into them in the 13 seconds year because we both had slightly down years, the goddamn Titans got the 1 seed and lost in the divisional by trotting out a banged up Henry. The Bengals and RAIDERS (because Staley f***ed up and knocked himself out of the playoffs) were 4-5 and we know how those playoffs played out. If KC sucked a little more or were a bit better...13 seconds could have been the AFCCG.
We didn't run into them in 2022 because we finished 1-2 but lost to the Bengals.
We ran into them this year because we finished 2-3, arguably both on down years. Maybe we don't run into them if either of us played better or slightly wrose.

DL Struggles...
Looking at some of the chunk runs that KC pulled off, the gap shooting that guys like Bernard or Milano could do wasn't there. There were wide open lanes that we usually would see being filled.
The pass-rush being invisible on Mahomes, that's somewhat expected with Mahomes' ability to get out of sacks, Groot got to him a few times but he escaped or threw away. But if your coverage is as bad as it was I don't think a few more wins by the DL would matter.

On FIRE so-and-so stuff...
Overreactions will be eternal. In a close game there are going to be small execution differences that you can't attribute to coaching. I think if a couple things go our way and we ousted the Chiefs, Chiefs fans would be having similar complaints about their team, stuff like:

Bills ran it down our throats with ease, we got very little for stops, and they got theirs when it mattered most.
We got too cute with the Hardman fumble.
Got stupid by repeated throws on the last offensive drive (essentially back-to-back 3 and outs)
#2 Defense got 0 sacks - injuries not an excuse, Bills were injured too


Offseason...
I think most of the offense can run it back, outside of WR and backup RB (Johnson plus a power-back) Lots of cost-controlled assets for the next few years. Need a reliable downfield threat, it could have made all the difference on Sunday. Lots of chances, Shorter, draft guy, depth guys.

IDK on defense. Assume Hyde is gone, possibly Poyer. Leaves a huge hole in the safety position, both from a personnel and schematic standpoint (having those 2 in sync on the back-end is vital for the scheme). Probably a guy on day 1 or 2 depending on how the board falls. Get some reliable backups on DT/DE, through draft or FA. There's going to be guys available post-draft too. Floyd and Ford were post-draft signings. So was Clowney for Baltimore, Ngakoue for Chicago, etc. Hopefully there will be guys that fit schematically.

 

[Selanne00008]

Well, with Davis being a basic lock to be gone, and Diggs not getting any younger, they certainly need at least 1 WR at the draft. Day 2 or sooner.

It seems pretty clear this go around. In the top 3 rounds a WR, DE/DT and a secondary piece is needed, most likely safety. No need at all for TE/QB/RB/OL/LB early in the draft. Hitting on Bernard and letting Edmonds walk is such a huge win. Missing completely on Elam is such a big loss lol.

You could argue multiple ways which order they should be put in. but, I think you just look at all 3 positions when your pick is starting to come up and analyze in real-time does it makes sense to move up, move down or stand pat based on what's on the board.

Just maybe, if you know with near certainty you are going to get at leas say, 2 comp picks in 2025, then you could trade your own 2025 3rd/4th rounder for added picks in the 2024 draft. i get you usually need to trade say a 4th rounder next year just to get a 5th rounder this year, but still.