Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Der Jaeger]

Still, I do not think that planning to move on from Dawkins after the 2024 season and ignoring major needs at WR, DT, and DE to draft a backup OT to be his replacement in future years is a road they would consider going down.


The only way either of them is back in 2024 is if the FA market isn't there for them ala Poyer last year. But, they are both young enough that I bet some other team gives them a contract that the Bills will choose not to compete with like when Lawson and Phillips and Tremaine all left over recent years.

I don't see WR as a major need. They've got Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid as pass catchers. That's a good group.

Defensive line - yes, major need. But LT is a hard position to find a talented player. And McDermott consistently shelters rookies in playing time, so to consider a rookie LT sitting a season isn't absurd for this franchise.

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

Ultimately, when it comes down to it, Mahomes is just a little bit better than Allen.

The Chiefs are just a little bit better than the Bills.

We're like the Utah Jazz of the 1990s except the Chicago Bulls play in our conference and Mahomes isn't going to go on hiatus to play baseball.

Reid is a little bit better than McDermott.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't see WR as a major need. They've got Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid as pass catchers. That's a good group.

Defensive line - yes, major need. But LT is a hard position to find a talented player. And McDermott consistently shelters rookies in playing time, so to consider a rookie LT sitting a season isn't absurd for this franchise.

You are in the vast minority there.

They need to upgrade over Gabe Davis with a rookie that has the potential to develop into the #1 WR in 2025 or 2026 as age causes Diggs to decline.

Beane talked about the need to hit big with this draft class because they have 20+ UFAs to replace and not a ton of cap space to do it with. I do not see them taking a 1st or 2nd round guy that is primarily a backup in 2024, outside of DL guys that will be in the regular rotation.

 

[buffalowing88]

Some positions age better than others. There are examples of good LTs playing well into their 30s. I don't think we need to move on from Dawkins with that in mind.

On the other hand, cornerbacks who have multiple leg/foot injuries and are approaching 30 don't have the same track record and usually need to move to FS or drop off the map. So cutting Tre and eating the initial cost seems reasonable.

Is the current sentiment that Daquon will not be back? I thought him and Oliver were a strong presence and would negate the need for us to draft a DT in the first round. Maybe a space eater in a later round, though.

Lastly, I'm not as sold on Shakir as some of you. The advanced stats look nice for him but, on the other hand, it's still a relatively small sample size and he played some of those games in a sheltered role.

I am find with Diggs and Kincaid as primary pass-catchers and think Hines will also warrant some targets. But we need a guy who can stretch the field, if for no other reason than to open up the middle for the other guys. A Texas or Washington WR in round one would be nice for that.

Not really. Even if the Bills extend Dawkins and don't take an OT in the 1st round, I'm still not taking a WR unless he's BPA. I'd rather take a player like Kamren Kitchens.

To be clear, I never advocated cutting Dawkins. Just letting his contract play out and drafting his replacement. My idea and cutting are far different when you talk about a player like Dawkins.

I get your logic but wouldn't it seem like a redundancy to waste a high pick on Dawkins' replacement only to have him sit on the bench or play a depth role for a year or two? The window needs to be maximized while Josh is in his prime.

 

[Zman5778]

Beane talked about the need to hit big with this draft class because they have 20+ UFAs to replace and not a ton of cap space to do it with. I do not see them taking a 1st or 2nd round guy that is primarily a backup in 2024, outside of DL guys that will be in the regular rotation.

The good news is that we currently have 9 picks in the draft and are likely to have at least 10.

We have our own pick in every round but the 3rd. Then we've got an extra 5th and two extra 6ths. And we've likely got a 3rd coming by way of a compensatory pick.

Gotta think that whoever we take in the 1st and 2nd are going to be slated to start immediately out of need. So I cannot imagine.....in any way.....taking a guy who would need a "redshirt" season. So that means no RB, no OL, no TE, no LB (unless undersized and converting to safety) and no CB (unless converting to safety).

I imagine that the positions in play for us in the first and second are WR, DT, S and maybe possibly DE.

 

[Der Jaeger]

You are in the vast minority there.

They need to upgrade over Gabe Davis with a rookie that has the potential to develop into the #1 WR in 2025 or 2026 as age causes Diggs to decline.

Beane talked about the need to hit big with this draft class because they have 20+ UFAs to replace and not a ton of cap space to do it with. I do not see them taking a 1st or 2nd round guy that is primarily a backup in 2024, outside of DL guys that will be in the regular rotation.

I don't mind being ins the vast majority. The #1 receiver going forward is already on the roster. Dalton Kincaid. So is the#2 receiver. Khalil Shakir.

Beane needs an X receiver with size and speed. That doesn't require a 1st rounder.

I get your logic but wouldn't it seem like a redundancy to waste a high pick on Dawkins' replacement only to have him sit on the bench or play a depth role for a year or two? The window needs to be maximized while Josh is in his prime.

I don't see Josh's prime as going away anytime soon. I think the Bills will be abel to put together 2 more versions of the Bills for Josh to lead. He'll still be in his prime for Team 2. He might be limited to a pocket passer who runs occasionally for Team 3 (like Roethlisberger).

The Bills habitually limit rookie reps. Doing that at LT seems somewhat par for the course.

 

[Jim Bob]

Lastly, I'm not as sold on Shakir as some of you. The advanced stats look nice for him but, on the other hand, it's still a relatively small sample size and he played some of those games in a sheltered role.

13.6 Yards per Target (#1 in NFL), 73.3% Success Rate (#1 in NFL), and 86.7% Catch Rate (#1 among WRs) are not advanced stats.

Shakir was not the focal point for DCs with Allen, Diggs, and Cook being the top 3 threats that DCs worried about. But, with all the weapons they will have on offense, Shakir will remain a guy that has the chance to thrive as a slot WR that can operate efficiently.

That catch rate is crazy.

There were only 2 WRs in the top 25 in Catch Rate: Shakir & Braxton Berrios.

Kincaid being 3rd in Catch Rate among TEs as a rookie is really good, as well.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't mind being ins the vast majority. The #1 receiver going forward is already on the roster. Dalton Kincaid. So is the#2 receiver. Khalil Shakir.

Beane needs an X receiver with size and speed. That doesn't require a 1st rounder.

They need an X receiver that can create separation and is a threat after the catch with the ball in his hands. They could get a guy like that in the 2nd round.

And there is no way this offense gets to the level people want if Kincaid & Shakir are the #1 and #2 receiving options moving forward.

They need more explosive plays than they got this year.

But, if they don't go WR in round 1, I fully expect they go DE or DT. They aren't taking a backup OT and ignore two of WR, DE, and DT until the 3rd round.

 

[Der Jaeger]

They need an X receiver that can create separation and is a threat after the catch with the ball in his hands. They could get a guy like that in the 2nd round.

And there is no way this offense gets to the level people want if Kincaid & Shakir are the #1 and #2 receiving options moving forward.

They need more explosive plays than they got this year.

But, if they don't go WR in round 1, I fully expect they go DE or DT. They aren't taking a backup OT and ignore two of WR, DE, and DT until the 3rd round.

I've mocked Brendan Rice to the Bills in the 2nd round for about 2 months now, for those reasons.

You're underestimating growth in both those two players.

Beane took a TE when he already had one in Knox. He's stacked up on positions before.

Try a few dozen mock drafts and see what DE and DT options are available at 28. It's not great.

 

[buffa dud]

I don't see WR as a major need. They've got Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid as pass catchers. That's a good group.

Defensive line - yes, major need. But LT is a hard position to find a talented player. And McDermott consistently shelters rookies in playing time, so to consider a rookie LT sitting a season isn't absurd for this franchise.

That's a good group... as long as Diggs rebounds and everyone stays perfectly healthy. I don't know if it's smart to bank on that, though, when this exact group arguably cost you a playoff win.

 

[Jim Bob]

I've mocked Brendan Rice to the Bills in the 2nd round for about 2 months now, for those reasons.

You're underestimating growth in both those two players.

Beane took a TE when he already had one in Knox. He's stacked up on positions before.

Try a few dozen mock drafts and see what DE and DT options are available at 28. It's not great.

I would not have a problem if they got Sweat at 28. And I've seen him mocked to the Bills in the 2nd round.

 

[DapperCam]

I really hope they find a way to re-sign DaQuan Jones. That guy was incredible, and our defense with him in vs out was night and day.

Would also love to extend Douglas as a Tre White replacement.

Poyer had a rough year. Love the guy, but hope we look for speed and youth at Safety next year.

Beane is going to have to earn his paycheck filling these holes with limited cap. McDermott is going to have to earn his with what will probably be a lot more youth and “role players” starting on defense next season.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[kirby11]

Wouldn't mind seeing him go and getting another voice to lead the DL. Considering how many resources they've poured into that unit, it's frustrating to see:
-How often they get thoroughly dominated by above average OL units in both the run and pass game
-They struggle to convert pressure to sacks against QBs with even the tiniest hint of agility and elusiveness
-They've consistently no-showed for halves or almost entire games in the playoffs under McD/Washington

 

[Der Jaeger]

I would not have a problem if they got Sweat at 28. And I've seen him mocked to the Bills in the 2nd round.

As of now, Sweat would be a very big reach at 28.

I've run probably around 100 simulations across PFF, PFN, NFL Draft Blitz, and MDD. Maybe more. The players who are frequently there as BPA are Morgan, Kamren Kitchens, Graham Barton, and Tyler Nubin.

Do higher ranked players drop in mocks? Sure. But no one consistently. As we get closer to April, and draft boards change, so will the mocks. But that's where I'm at now.

 

[Chainshot]

Mike Judge?

 

[Der Jaeger]

That's a good group... as long as Diggs rebounds and everyone stays perfectly healthy. I don't know if it's smart to bank on that, though, when this exact group arguably cost you a playoff win.

I'm not sure that group cost the Bills a playoff win. The defense could not stop the Chiefs.

Kincaid and Shakir were good in the game.

 

[buffalowing88]

NFL Honors: Finalists announced for MVP, other awards from 2023 season

Glad Josh got named a finalist for MVP. Lamar deserves it this year, but I think Allen is the clear runner-up.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm not sure that group cost the Bills a playoff win. The defense could not stop the Chiefs.

Kincaid and Shakir were good in the game.

The three drops on the two deep shots to Sherfield and the one to Diggs sure didn't help them overcome the defense getting shredded due to ineffective DL play and the second level being really hampered due to injury.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Der Jaeger]

The three drops on the two deep shots to Sherfield and the one to Diggs sure didn't help them overcome the defense getting shredded due to ineffective DL play and the second level being really hampered due to injury.

We remember those drops as missed opportunities. But the Bills lost that game because they could not stop the Chiefs. The drops didn't help. But that was far from the reason for losing.

To balance it out, Shakir made a very high degree of difficulty catch for the touchdown. Just a few weeks ago, Sherfield made an insane TD catch.

Drops happen for every team.

 

[Selanne00008]

Given the cap situation, I think an extension for Dawkins to lower his 2024 cap hit is way more likely than cutting him and moving to a rookie.

Plus, Dawkins is their back-to-back Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee and a huge part of the organization.

And if you think Rasul Douglas is young enough to be a part of the team moving forward, then Dawkins should be, as well. Dawkins is less than 6 months older than Douglas. And OTs tend to have longer careers than CBs.



I need to watch this today.

Update: here are the levers that Greg sees happening to just get to the point where they can sign their draft picks:

View attachment 810060

View attachment 810081
With $25-30M in cap space, he expects the offseason to look similar to last year where they sign their draft picks, they roll the dice on cheap vets on 1 yr $1.77M deals like Rapp & Edwards got last year, and then 1 or 2 $5-9M guys like Floyd, McGovern, & Harty were last year.

This is a good visual for me. I think the only thing here that gives me pause is, restructuring Diggs yet again? Wouldn't that balloon his 2025 and 2026 release/cut dead cap? Not sure I want to risk being in a tough spot with him for multiple offseasons to come.

 

[buffa dud]

NFL Honors: Finalists announced for MVP, other awards from 2023 season

Glad Josh got named a finalist for MVP. Lamar deserves it this year, but I think Allen is the clear runner-up.

If I'm looking at this entire season, Myles Garrett deserves it more. Even more than Allen.

 

[Selanne00008]

The good news is that we currently have 9 picks in the draft and are likely to have at least 10.

We have our own pick in every round but the 3rd. Then we've got an extra 5th and two extra 6ths. And we've likely got a 3rd coming by way of a compensatory pick.

Gotta think that whoever we take in the 1st and 2nd are going to be slated to start immediately out of need. So I cannot imagine.....in any way.....taking a guy who would need a "redshirt" season. So that means no RB, no OL, no TE, no LB (unless undersized and converting to safety) and no CB (unless converting to safety).

I imagine that the positions in play for us in the first and second are WR, DT, S and maybe possibly DE.

This is exactly where I land. Take the BP available at the bolded. Slight nuance if there are tiers and a big drop off in one of those positions when you're on the clock, etc.

I kinda doubt there is a true safety there that's worthy of the late 1st. But, I haven't ran any mocks. My guess is they go WR or DT or DE in the 1st.