Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Der Jaeger]

The Bills have had the best safety tandem in franchise history, and arguably the best safety tandem in the league over the last five years. It hasn't stopped Higgins, or Chase, or Kelce. And if you take a look at the market recently, which we saw first-hand when Poyer went to test FA, a good safety can be had without breaking the bank. That doesn't hold true for wide-receivers these days, so if you're going to spend that first-round pick with a guaranteed fifth-year option, you're smart to use it on an asset that would otherwise cost you $$$$$ in free agency. Safety that is not.

Part of this may be true, however, you also have to draft what’s there. Drafting for need is bad business because you leave better players in the board. That naturally happens at QB and RB if you already have one, but for the rest it’s not a good way to draft.

McDermott’s D leans heavily on safeties. Buffalo won’t have any after this coming season.

So you have to take a look at who is going to be tops on your board, and if players have similar grades, then take a need.

And at 28 there aren’t many receivers available who I’d take over Morgan, Nubin, or Kinchens.

Walker is a Davis clone and Coleman struggles to separate. That’s why I constantly wait until 60 to take Rice.

KC has needed receivers for years but held off to take BPA. That’s the right way.

Kinchens worries me as he gets absolutely lost in coverage often and with how much McDermott relies on safeties, I can't imagine he puts a rookie in there that needs to learn.

That’s going to be an issue with any of them. That’s why I’d commit to safety this year, with Poyer still here, and maybe another Rapp style signing in terms of cost.

Nubin is a fun watch. Good in coverage and comes down hill like a hammer.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I also want to note that the Bills had one of the best safety duos by not putting any significant resources into The position. Just like Benford, Douglas, and Bernard are good starters on defense and didnt cost any notable resources.

Beane and McDermott are able to find very good starters at certain positions on defense without spending a high draft pick on them. So absent the player being exceptional, I dont think safety is something you spend a pick in the top two rounds. With the caveat that McDermott seems like someone who would love an exceptional safety

 

[Jim Bob]

I also want to note that the Bills had one of the best safety duos by not putting any significant resources into The position. Just like Benford, Douglas, and Bernard are good starters on defense and didnt cost any notable resources.

Beane and McDermott are able to find very good starters at certain positions on defense without spending a high draft pick on them. So absent the player being exceptional, I dont think safety is something you spend a pick in the top two rounds. With the caveat that McDermott seems like someone who would love an exceptional safety

Nobody was jumping up and down when they originally signed Hyde & Poyer.

McD has long had a lot of success with Ss & CBs that are late round picks or bargain FAs. If there is a position that I have hope that they can make minimal investments and be OK, it is at S.

Personally, I expect Poyer to be back, they maybe bring back Rapp on another cheap deal, or they get a different cheap vet, and then they take another developmental guy on Day 3 ala the Hamlin pick.

The two dumbest takes I am seeing on Bills Twitter this morning:

BB as DC and Vrabel as DC.

I cannot imagine BB having any interest in taking a step back as a DC, especially for a defensive minded head coach like McD. Plus, the Bills core defensive guys, especially Milano and Bernard at LB, do not fit what BB likes for his defense.

And Vrabel's one year as a DC in Houston, they gave up the most points in the NFL and they were 20th in yards allowed. Hard pass.

 

[Jim Bob]

I won't be shocked if Mangas gets the QB coach job if Brady is retained as OC, as expected.

 

[Dubi Doo]

As time has passed, what has lingered as my main frustration is that Kansas City called a defense that played right into Buffalo's hands on that 2nd and 9 for the time remaining and the game situation. They called a deep shell, and the Bills had Diggs running the perfect route uncovered against that defense for an easy first down over the middle to both keep the clock running and get a new set of downs inside the 20. I would argue it should have been the first read against the defense KC played on that down. Lower degree of difficulty, doesn't require the line to hold up, etc. He could have hit Kincaid on the 3rd down play and he would have had a chance (certainly not guaranteed) to get the first down as well.

Say what you will about the defense, but even as banged up they made a play after the fake punt to get the ball back, then came up with stops on consecutive sets of downs after the first one was negated by a bullshit pass interference penalty when the offense had to punt again. The offense had the game in their hands inside of 2 minutes after their previous 2 drives were punts and simply didn't get it done and it had a lot to do with questionable decision making. As much as it hurts to say, I can't see Mahomes leaving that on the field.

The idea the Bills got outcoached in this game is frankly bullshit. Kansas City's defense was poorly called on those last two downs, and the Bills had players in the correct position to punish them for it. They didn't execute.

Yeah. That's what still lingers a bit from this game. Allen had a high % catch and 1st down read in front of his face, and went with the much lower % TD.

Killed me, man. Watching in the stands from the moment that drive started, I said they need to kill off a ton of clock and score a TD to win the game. I was ecstatic they were in KC territory with 2mins left.

Then Mr. Brightside by the Killers played during the 2 min warning, and I thought for sure the football gods were going to make it happen. It felt right. Then Allen throws that bomb, and I was a bit confused. Then Allen seemed to look deep again, which confused me bc in my mind Im playing with 4 downs, so even 5-8 yards wouldve been nice. Then the FG unit came out, and I about headed to the exits. The game was pretty much lost the moment the FG unit came out. I HATED that call.

Everything from the 2 min warning on was brutal, and it sucks b/c that could've been the Elway 'drive' I would've witnessed live, but instead we were all sent home with pouty faces.

The more I think about it, the more annoyed I get. I'll just be grateful we have a legit chance a a championship while Allen is QB, but if he never reaches the holy grail- this game and 13 seconds will burn my soul (w/ some future heartaches Im sure)

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

For those that prefer YT over Spotify.

 

[Dingo44]

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I won't be shocked if DJ Mangas gets the QB coach job if Brady is retained as OC, as expected.

Plus his raves are off the hook.

 

[Dubi Doo]

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I won't be shocked if Mangas gets the QB coach job if Brady is retained as OC, as expected.

I'm intrigued by Brady. I actually really liked the gameplan on offense against KC outside of a few wrinkles (running so much on 1st down is becoming predictable). The injuries on defense were a lot to overcome, so dominating ToP was a smart move.

And, it WORKED! The offense was incredibly potent a majority of the drives + Allen had the ball in his hand with under 2 mins left in Chiefs territory to take the lead. Execution seemed to cost them the most in the second half.

Over the course of his short tenure, though, the offense still looked inconsistent, but with how they picked it up again in week 18 (Allen's TOs be damned) through the playoffs- Im encouraged. In 2022 the offense was limping into the divisional round. That wasn't the case this year. So, I do think Brady was a sizeable improvement on Dorsey.

 

[kirby11]

Yeah. That's what still lingers a bit from this game. Allen had a high % catch and 1st down read in front of his face, and went with the much lower % TD.

Killed me, man. Watching in the stands from the moment that drive started, I said they need to kill off a ton of clock and score a TD to win the game. I was ecstatic they were in KC territory with 2mins left.

Then Mr. Brightside by the Killers played during the 2 min warning, and I thought for sure the football gods were going to make it happen. It felt right. Then Allen throws that bomb, and I was a bit confused. Then Allen seemed to look deep again, which confused me bc in my mind Im playing with 4 downs, so even 5-8 yards wouldve been nice. Then the FG unit came out, and I about headed to the exits. The game was pretty much lost the moment the FG unit came out. I HATED that call.

Everything from the 2 min warning on was brutal, and it sucks b/c that could've been the Elway 'drive' I would've witnessed live, but instead we were all sent home with pouty faces.

The more I think about it, the more annoyed I get. I'll just be grateful we have a legit chance a a championship while Allen is QB, but if he never reaches the holy grail- this game and 13 seconds will burn my soul (w/ some future heartaches Im sure)

I didn't hate the 2nd down end-zone shot as much--you have a chance to hit a wide open WR for a TD late when you're behind, take it. Jones just made a great play and blew it up. Fully agree that he should've hit Kincaid or Shakir on the left side on 3rd down to either get the 1st or get it close enough to where you could go for it or give Bass a shorter kick.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Kinchens worries me as he gets absolutely lost in coverage often and with how much McDermott relies on safeties, I can't imagine he puts a rookie in there that needs to learn.

I don't see that when I've watched Kinchens. He's either hot (way too aggressive) or cold (way too passive). But his reads are fine. He's diagnosing fine, just acting wrong. That's fixable, especially considering what McDermott does with DBs.

Say the Bills add Kinchens/Nubin and follow up with James Williams in the 4th or 5th. That could be the best safety tandem in the league in a few years, if they pan out. Nubin reads and reacts well, but he might get burned by quicker receivers. Williams is also really good at reading plays, and he's big.

 

[TehDoak]

As time has passed, what has lingered as my main frustration is that Kansas City called a defense that played right into Buffalo's hands on that 2nd and 9 for the time remaining and the game situation. They called a deep shell, and the Bills had Diggs running the perfect route uncovered against that defense for an easy first down over the middle to both keep the clock running and get a new set of downs inside the 20. I would argue it should have been the first read against the defense KC played on that down. Lower degree of difficulty, doesn't require the line to hold up, etc. He could have hit Kincaid on the 3rd down play and he would have had a chance (certainly not guaranteed) to get the first down as well.

Say what you will about the defense, but even as banged up they made a play after the fake punt to get the ball back, then came up with stops on consecutive sets of downs after the first one was negated by a bullshit pass interference penalty when the offense had to punt again. The offense had the game in their hands inside of 2 minutes after their previous 2 drives were punts and simply didn't get it done and it had a lot to do with questionable decision making. As much as it hurts to say, I can't see Mahomes leaving that on the field.

The idea the Bills got outcoached in this game is frankly bullshit. Kansas City's defense was poorly called on those last two downs, and the Bills had players in the correct position to punish them for it. They didn't execute.

The 1st read was the deep ball to Shakir. He was open. Allen made the right throw. He just was bumped. I don’t know what happened on 3rd down. This seems to be brought up a ton, but you can’t get mad at a qb for throwing a touchdown pass to an open WR down 3 points under 2 minutes to go.

You don’t look to your option 2 (diggs) when option 1 was wide open.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'm intrigued by Brady. I actually really liked the gameplan on offense against KC outside of a few wrinkles (running so much on 1st down is becoming predictable). The injuries on defense were a lot to overcome, so dominating ToP was a smart move.

And, it WORKED! The offense was incredibly potent a majority of the drives + Allen had the ball in his hand with under 2 mins left in Chiefs territory to take the lead. Execution seemed to cost them the most in the second half.

Over the course of his short tenure, though, the offense still looked inconsistent, but with how they picked it up again in week 18 (Allen's TOs be damned) through the playoffs- Im encouraged. In 2022 the offense was limping into the divisional round. That wasn't the case this year. So, I do think Brady was a sizeable improvement on Dorsey.

Part of the reason is that Brady undertands it can't be the Josh Allen show. James Cook running, adding in Johnson and a little bit more Allen, made a big difference.

Most defenses are geared to stop the pass. When you start to gash teams with the run, they either get gashed (like Buffalo against KC), or they adjust to stop the run. That opens the pass back up.

KC's defense was designed to limit running but most of all take away the Bills medium and deep passing options. For the most past, it worked. Buffalo was still able to run for 182 yards, and Allen was successful in the short zones.

That's what good OCs do. Adjust the game plan to make sure the run works and then take what KC gave them in the passing game.

Had Allen just took Diggs wide open on his deep shot to Shakir, Diggs is competitive in picking up the first down and the Bills dontinue the drive.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Part of the reason is that Brady undertands it can't be the Josh Allen show. James Cook running, adding in Johnson and a little bit more Allen, made a big difference.

Most defenses are geared to stop the pass. When you start to gash teams with the run, they either get gashed (like Buffalo against KC), or they adjust to stop the run. That opens the pass back up.

KC's defense was designed to limit running but most of all take away the Bills medium and deep passing options. For the most past, it worked. Buffalo was still able to run for 182 yards, and Allen was successful in the short zones.

That's what good OCs do. Adjust the game plan to make sure the run works and then take what KC gave them in the passing game.

Had Allen just took Diggs wide open on his deep shot to Shakir, Diggs is competitive in picking up the first down and the Bills dontinue the drive.

Yeah. It saves Allen from himself, too. It takes some of the pressure off of him and limits the odds he'll make a stupid decision.

I'm really intrigued to see Allen grow in this system because it'll make him a better QB if Brady succeeds. Fingers crossed!

 

[Der Jaeger]

Yeah. It saves Allen from himself, too. It takes some of the pressure off of him and limits the odds he'll make a stupid decision.

I'm really intrigued to see Allen grow in this system because it'll make him a better QB if Brady succeeds. Fingers crossed!

I think Allen is going to make a huge leap next season regarding ball security. Dalton Kincaid is going to be a big part of it. TE throws are a lot easier than the typical vertical routes Daboll and Dorsey were running. Brady kept the vertical concepts but added in a lot more (a lot more) horizontal timing routes that Allen increasingly took as the season progressed.

With Kincaid running a lot of those routes, and just getting better at getting open, I think we'll see Allen target Kincaid more than any other receiver next season.

 

[buffalowing88]

I think Allen is going to make a huge leap next season regarding ball security. Dalton Kincaid is going to be a big part of it. TE throws are a lot easier than the typical vertical routes Daboll and Dorsey were running. Brady kept the vertical concepts but added in a lot more (a lot more) horizontal timing routes that Allen increasingly took as the season progressed.

With Kincaid running a lot of those routes, and just getting better at getting open, I think we'll see Allen target Kincaid more than any other receiver next season.

Definitely agree with this. Kincaid wasn't fully utilized this year but by the end you could start to see how he's going to be the engine of the passing game.

You make a good point about the TE throws being easier in general. Allen hasn't had that type of outlet since Beasley's last good season. He's been forced to throw more challenging passes with a much lower success rate.

I also think that Hines could play a big role in the passing offense next year. Murray is probably gone and Ty Johnson looks to have locked up the backup RB role so it'd be nice to have Hines as the 3rd down check-down back on passing plays.

It needs to become the Cook-Kincaid show on offense for this second iteration of the team under Allen. The first iteration couldn't get over the hump but this new version may be more suited for the playoffs.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Also, a crazy statistic. Allen has the lowest interception percentage in NFL history in playoff games. Of all time. For all QBs ever! It may be with a minimum of 5 starts, but that is wild

 

[Bagel]

I also want to note that the Bills had one of the best safety duos by not putting any significant resources into The position. Just like Benford, Douglas, and Bernard are good starters on defense and didnt cost any notable resources.

Beane and McDermott are able to find very good starters at certain positions on defense without spending a high draft pick on them. So absent the player being exceptional, I dont think safety is something you spend a pick in the top two rounds. With the caveat that McDermott seems like someone who would love an exceptional safety

While Safety is especially vital in McDermott’s defense, I’m reflexively reluctant to use our first round pick on the position – perhaps I’m biased by the relatively inexpensive acquisitions of Hyde and Poyer.

Depending how we view our CB group, I continue to believe Benford would be an excellent Safety. I also wonder if our one “splurge” FA could be Dugger or Chinn. Moreover, can Beane identify another underappreciate asset like Poyer?

Ideally I would prefer to use our top three picks to solidify both lines and add a size/speed X WR while we find our Safety replacements by alternate means.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Feeding the Pit, with steel beams

https://www.wivb.com/sports/buffalo-bills-stadium-discussions/hochul-construction-milestone-reached-at-new-bills-stadium/

 

[misterchainsaw]

The 1st read was the deep ball to Shakir. He was open. Allen made the right throw. He just was bumped. I don’t know what happened on 3rd down. This seems to be brought up a ton, but you can’t get mad at a qb for throwing a touchdown pass to an open WR down 3 points under 2 minutes to go.

You don’t look to your option 2 (diggs) when option 1 was wide open.

I just don't agree it should have been the first read given the defense Kansas City was playing. Shakir got open, sure, and obviously no one's saying no to a TD if it happens, but Shakir had to get open in the teeth of the defense (3 defenders around him). As soon as the linebackers all drop out and Diggs is 3 yards ahead of the guy chasing him, that's where the ball should have gone. Higher percentage, requires less protection (on a play where their best pass rusher was one on one, it should be noted), and not giving the ball back to Mahomes with a full 2 minutes to break your heart are all positives.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[buffa dud]

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Please no (Thad Lewis.)

 

[Zman5778]

Please no (Thad Lewis.)

More than likely a Rooney Rule candidate

 

[Jim Bob]

I just don't agree it should have been the first read given the defense Kansas City was playing. Shakir got open, sure, and obviously no one's saying no to a TD if it happens, but Shakir had to get open in the teeth of the defense (3 defenders around him). As soon as the linebackers all drop out and Diggs is 3 yards ahead of the guy chasing him, that's where the ball should have gone. Higher percentage, requires less protection (on a play where their best pass rusher was one on one, it should be noted), and not giving the ball back to Mahomes with a full 2 minutes to break your heart are all positives.

The progression on that play likely was a high to low read.

Shakir being open means that Allen never got to Diggs on that play.

The lack of knowledge of how plays are designed and what the read progression is supposed to be lead fans and media alike to guess on what QBs should have done on certain plays.

It's not like Allen looked at Diggs first, turned down the pass to him, and then looked to Shakir and then threw the ball.

 

[Jim Bob]

More than likely a Rooney Rule candidate

Or they are interviewing him as a potential candidate in the future or they may be trying to see if they could get him as their QB coach, but calling it an OC interview.

Some people felt that the head coach interview for Joe Brady in Atlanta was more a feeler to see if he was interested in the OC job there and not really about the head coach opening.