Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Taro Tsujimoto]

Well, at least the Dolphins lost too.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Why yes. Yes I agree that the Pats and Chargers are not-bad teams.

That wasn’t the best phrasing by me but the chargers and pats are tied for the lowest amount of wins in the conference!

I don’t think the dolphins have beaten anyone with more than 2 wins, and they two games they played against teams with winning records…they were double digit losses

 

[Husko]

If the offense looks like this in December I'll be concerned. Until then, I hope they can just get through the next few weeks winning enough games to stay alive.

The defense is going to be pretty mediocre most of the season. You just don't overcome injuries to that many of your best players and stay elite.

 

[Dirty Dog]

If the offense looks like this in December I'll be concerned. Until then, I hope they can just get through the next few weeks winning enough games to stay alive.

The defense is going to be pretty mediocre most of the season. You just don't overcome injuries to that many of your best players and stay elite.

Hopefully we can have some late season returns for Milano and Jones and we don’t get more injured

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

That Dawson Knox deal is CRIPPLING. Literally pay him elite tight end money and he's a Robert Tonyan level tight end. 14 mil aav for Knox when Evans will be 20? Just sick. But he's Allens boy so he got paid when he shouldn't have.

 

[misterchainsaw]

That wasn’t the best phrasing by me but the chargers and pats are tied for the lowest amount of wins in the conference!

I don’t think the dolphins have beaten anyone with more than 2 wins, and they two games they played against teams with winning records…they were double digit losses

It's actually kind of crazy how jumbled the standings in the AFC are right now with no 0-1 win teams. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are the top two wild card teams right now at 4-2, and it feels like they're both doing it with smoke and mirrors, and then we're the only other AFC team with 4 wins right now. Chargers are 2-4, Bengals are 3-3 (and it's hard to imagine 4 AFC North teams all making it.) And like, how the f*** do the Raiders have 3 wins??

I'm not saying the Bills can make it at 9-8, because their tiebreakers are not great (although the head to heads are all either against presumed division winners or teams they'll play again), but it's not at all hard to imagine the 7th seed getting in at 9-8.

 

[Waterfowlist]

That Dawson Knox deal is CRIPPLING. Literally pay him elite tight end money and he's a Robert Tonyan level tight end. 14 mil aav for Knox when Evans will be 20? Just sick. But he's Allens boy so he got paid when he shouldn't have.

Agreed. The next out in his contract is 2024, so he will be here at least next year. He is an 8 million dollar TE getting paid like an elite TE. He is a very good blocker and very good at breaking through a few tackles. He isn’t bad but that’s a lot of money locked up.

Kincaid needs to get his targets. The kid doesn’t drop the ball. I think he has had one pass that was catchable that he has dropped. Knox is literally 50/50. Feed Kincaid in the red zone!

Unrelated - Dorian Williams was absolutely abused by NE. They used motion to confuse him and often his man was running free across the middle. That’s a big issue. He was the only real hope to fill that hole. We know Dodtson and Klein (if activated from PS) can’t do it. Now it appears the rookie can’t either.

 

[Waterfowlist]

Also- the bills did NOT lose this game due to refs. They got the result they deserved.

However, this is NOT offensive PI. The defender literally is lunging forward to initiate contact. They never call this play unless the offensive player extends his arms or stops his route to block the defenders path. Both players have equal right to the space, you don’t have to avoid the defender. There was a gap between Knox and the defender, Murray tried to cut through it and the defender tried to close on Knox. What is Murray supposed to do?? He can’t predict what the defender is going to do.

https://x.com/garthtimber_/status/1716147295551459807?s=46&t=ZPSqGVzU97vtboh4VlefLw

 

[truthbluth]

Agreed. The next out in his contract is 2024, so he will be here at least next year. He is an 8 million dollar TE getting paid like an elite TE. He is a very good blocker and very good at breaking through a few tackles. He isn’t bad but that’s a lot of money locked up.

Kincaid needs to get his targets. The kid doesn’t drop the ball. I think he has had one pass that was catchable that he has dropped. Knox is literally 50/50. Feed Kincaid in the red zone!

Unrelated - Dorian Williams was absolutely abused by NE. They used motion to confuse him and often his man was running free across the middle. That’s a big issue. He was the only real hope to fill that hole. We know Dodtson and Klein (if activated from PS) can’t do it. Now it appears the rookie can’t either.

A) If you can find a trade partner for Knox post June 1, there is substantial cap savings.
B) Rookie linebackers have amongst the steepest learning curves. He's being thrown into the deep end. If he isn't swimming by the end of the season, then you know you have to move on. He wasn't supposed to play much this season.

 

[Jim Bob]

A) If you can find a trade partner for Knox post June 1, there is substantial cap savings.
B) Rookie linebackers have amongst the steepest learning curves. He's being thrown into the deep end. If he isn't swimming by the end of the season, then you know you have to move on. He wasn't supposed to play much this season.

They are not going to move on from Dorian Williams after his rookie season.

He will go back to being Milano's backup and a STs guy.

Bernard looked bad in his one start as a rookie and is a lot better this year. A rough rookie season is not the end of Williams's career.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

The lack of consistent pressure left Williams in coverage way too long. Very few linebacker can cover backs and receivers in space for that long. Missing Oliver resulted in little push up the middle so Jones wasn't forced to leave the pocket, and any QB with time can pick apart a defense with crossing routes as they don't require huge arm strength

 

[joshjull]

We really are going to waste Allen, aren’t we

 

[Dubi Doo]

We really are going to waste Allen, aren’t we

Well, it looks like the first portion of his career won't lead to a Superbowl unless the defense can play above its head and the offense can get hot at the right time. We'll likely need to do a mini retool on defense next year. A lot of aging vets in the secondary. So, I doubt we see a SB with this core.

Not sure about the offense. I haven't been impressed with the line lately. Allen was making some insane plays to keep drives alive (even though he also missed a few throws). Diggs still has some good years left, at least. I'm still excited about Kincaid.

But yeah, it's disappointing they likely aren't going to make the conference finals again after looking so damn promising in 2020. 13 seconds lingers like a bad stench, and I fear it always will. If Allen can get a Superbowl, then all is forgiven.

 

[Jim Bob]

Well, at least Miami only scored one offensive TD yesterday and have still gone more than a calendar year without beating a team with a winning record...

 

[truthbluth]

They are not going to move on from Dorian Williams after his rookie season.

He will go back to being Milano's backup and a STs guy.

Bernard looked bad in his one start as a rookie and is a lot better this year. A rough rookie season is not the end of Williams's career.

"Move on," as in, actually invest in a capable backup.

 

[Jim Bob]

"Move on," as in, actually invest in a capable backup.

Of all the places they need to invest, Milano's backup is nowhere near the top of the list.

Philly has one of the best rosters in the NFL and one thing they don't do is invest a lot into LBs.

Williams is fine as a developmental LB behind Milano.

 

[Jim Bob]

The best NFL coaching jobs no one is talking about: Sando's Pick Six

Plus, Lamar Jackson's and the Ravens' takeoff, the truth about the Bills, the ugly truth about Derek Carr and more

theathletic.com

3. The Bills’ 29-25 defeat at New England is sure to generate more hand-wringing over the Buffalo offense. It should, but not necessarily because the offense is bad.​

When Bills quarterback Josh Allen was asked last week whether he had lost faith in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, I noted that the Bills’ offense ranked among the NFL’s top five this season in EPA per play and success rate.



Guess what? The Bills actually made statistical gains in both areas during their 29-25 defeat at New England. But with their defense and special teams suffering their worst combined performance of the season (minus-13.7 EPA), the Bills lost the game.

 

[KeyserSoze81]

We really are going to waste Allen, aren’t we

Yup, they went big on Von Miller and it blew up badly. The defense was talented but wasted by passive coaching, now it's old. The good news is that the necessary re-tool coincides with a need to clean house in the coaching staff. There is an opportunity to get it right. I don't think that they will, but there is a chance if they keep up this level of play.

 

[TehDoak]

I still maintain we need to make an addition on the defensive side of the ball. I still think a starting boundary CB is the 1 need here, followed by a vet coverage LB. I'm not sure how you fit both under the cap at this point, but at least go get one.

It should be noted that winning the superbowl is predicated on a few things:

1. Being healthy in January. There is a decent chance Jones will be back by the playoffs. An outside chance Milano could be. Pray that both are, the defense took such a giant step with them out.
2. Peaking in January/February.

I'm not as concerned with struggles now. I think most teams have at least 1 stretch during the year where things aren't clicking in one phase or another. Right now our offense isn't clicking and its compounded by our defensive injuries. So, assuming our offense can get right, it's on the GM to find a fix on defense.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Husko]

That Dawson Knox deal is CRIPPLING. Literally pay him elite tight end money and he's a Robert Tonyan level tight end. 14 mil aav for Knox when Evans will be 20? Just sick. But he's Allens boy so he got paid when he shouldn't have.

Knox hasn’t had a cap hit higher than his current one of $6 million yet. It’s highly unlikely he actually plays on the 14-16 million cap hits he’s scheduled for the last 3 years of the deal.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Husko]

Agreed. The next out in his contract is 2024, so he will be here at least next year. He is an 8 million dollar TE getting paid like an elite TE. He is a very good blocker and very good at breaking through a few tackles. He isn’t bad but that’s a lot of money locked up.

Kincaid needs to get his targets. The kid doesn’t drop the ball. I think he has had one pass that was catchable that he has dropped. Knox is literally 50/50. Feed Kincaid in the red zone!

Unrelated - Dorian Williams was absolutely abused by NE. They used motion to confuse him and often his man was running free across the middle. That’s a big issue. He was the only real hope to fill that hole. We know Dodtson and Klein (if activated from PS) can’t do it. Now it appears the rookie can’t either.

The “outs” on spotrac don’t really mean anything. They could cut him this offseason and save significant money. I bet he takes a paycut in exchange for guaranteeing more cash, since he doesn’t really have any guaranteed money still coming his way.

 

[Dirty Dog]

We really are going to waste Allen, aren’t we

I’m extremely disappointed in this season but I really disagree with this. The only way this makes sense is if you think not winning a Super Bowl is a waste. The bills have the second most wins the last three or four years.

Wasting a QB is what you see with Herbert. The bills have, and still are, legit contenders with Allen and that’s not a waste.

It’s not like the colts wasted the first half of Manning’s career

 

[Fezzy126]

The best NFL coaching jobs no one is talking about: Sando's Pick Six

Plus, Lamar Jackson's and the Ravens' takeoff, the truth about the Bills, the ugly truth about Derek Carr and more

theathletic.com

My issue this week revolves way more around the offense's use of tempo and personnel groupings.

If you throw out the last possession with 12 seconds left, we limited ourselves to only 4 possessions in the 2nd half by mixing the run with short passes and constantly rotating personnel packages. Since Allen first got here, I feel like we're at our best when we run tempo with 11 personnel and keep defenses on their heels.

In my mind the analytics around offensive efficiency are both misleading and don't do a great job understanding game script the difficulty around our success.

This offense has no rhythm, no identity, and has very little creativity. They need to figure it out like they did in the 2nd half of that Tampa game a few years ago, or else they won't even make the wild card at this rate.