Wrote this for Buffalo Rumblings:
- The NFL has a really good track record of taking strong armed, athletic QBs and fitting them into a horizontal timing offense (west coast offense). Elway, Young, Favre, McNabb, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc. A NFL defensive coordinator explained it to me: the scheme stretches the defense laterally. The QB stretches the field vertically. It works.
Most of Allen’s routes are breaking around 10 yards with little opportunity for YAC. Dorsey runs an Erhardt-Perkins offensive, inherited from Daboll. That’s a great offense for a patient, pocket passer like Brady. EP is designed to stay ahead of the down and distance and sustain drives. I’m not sure it’s a great fit for Allen. Right now, unless Allen is super patient, he defaults to hero ball. And the line is struggling to block 5 and 7 step drops.
Dorsey does have some HT offensive experience. I’d either make that tough switch, or get a coordinator who can run it. The reason HT works for someone like Allen is that he’s getting the ball into hands of playmakers fast, with the opportunity to run after the catch. He could operate a complete offense around fast ball movement, prior to his running or scramble drill play even coming into effect.
- McDermott runs too much 4-2-5. It really strains the interior of the defense. He’s got linebackers to play a 4-3 at least part of the time. I think there’s enough on film of his defense where offensive coordinators can scheme it correctly. The Bills defense is a lot like the old Bucs Tampa 2, in that it’s dependent on personnel beating blocks. Down a lot of headliners, McDermott needs to make some scheme changes.
- The Bills offensive line needs 2-3 more young players in the mix. The only player I’m sold on long term is Torrence. I’d like to see the analytics from the last 2-3 games, because it seems Allen doesn’t have a lot of time. It’s early for draft thoughts, but Beane has 4 picks in the first two days of the draft. I’m big on BPA, but if they’ve got a tie in the tier, they should look offensive line. Get some kids in now who can learn for a year or two, and then plug them in. Allen has an another decade in Buffalo. Keeping him upright has to be a priority.
- A long time ago, I wrote an article for BR about WRs and value. I hear the calls for replacing Davis. I don’t think replacing Davis will upgrade the Bills offense. And teams regularly find good receivers throughout the draft. Davis might be the last position I’d replace. A bigger receiver with speed who can pull safeties deep would be enough to make a scheme work.
- I’m a huge 12 personnel proponent. I think the extra gap it creates causes a lot of havoc for defenses. I just don’t think Dorsey or Shula have gotten the scheme aligned with the talent. I’d put on Patriots film from over a decade ago. They used 12 personnel so well. No one really stopped the Pats. The Hernandez situation stopped that offense. It’s a far better model than the Cam Newton scheme that Shula brought in.
- I wouldn’t be down on the Bills. I wrote here when the team was hoping Trent Edwards was the answer. Having a franchise QB is so important because you get 3-4 shots at a title over that QBs career. Beane and McDermott could tear down two more times and rebuild around Allen. Look at teams that Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger led over the last 20 years. They’ve had shots and won titles with completely different teams. Even Mahomes’ second Super Bowl team looked different from his first SB team. It’s far, far from over. Allen and the Bills have about another decade worth of title shots.
