Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[ValJamesDuex]

Weather Thursday: 70-clouds at tailgate time, 65-clouds in the evening for gametime, winds 10-15mph

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[buffa dud]

Is the philosophy to start pulling all-pro caliber players out of thin air? Because we could really use that, right now. And an extra fifty million in cap space to make up for all the guys on IR.

 

[buffa dud]

The fact that Carr and Edmunds got what they got out of the Raiders and Bears, respectively, speaks to why those organizations are where they are today.

 

[Der Jaeger]

That's why you build through the draft.

For all the capologists out there:

How does Beane work next season? Bills have $276M on the books and the current cap is $227M. Is it expected to go up so significantly that it makes up the $50M? Or a good chunk of it?

Thanks in advance.

Edit: I saw on Spotrac that the cap typically goes up $20M in non-COVID effected years. So Beane might just have to figure out $30M.

 

[Jim Bob]

That's why you build through the draft.

For all the capologists out there:

How does Beane work next season? Bills have $276M on the books and the current cap is $227M. Is it expected to go up so significantly that it makes up the $50M? Or a good chunk of it?

Thanks in advance.

Edit: I saw on Spotrac that the cap typically goes up $20M in non-COVID effected years. So Beane might just have to figure out $30M.

He's going to continue to do the restructure dance for the foreseeable future.

The fact that Carr and Edmunds got what they got out of the Raiders and Bears, respectively, speaks to why those organizations are where they are today.

Carr signed with the Saints from the Raiders. And that is the move you make when you don't have a franchise QB...

 

[TehDoak]

My current thought is Josey Jewell makes a ton of sense

Expiring contract, Broncos can eat some of the salary, and we have two 3rd round picks. He's as close to an in place replacement for Milano as you will find. Not the same level, but a tackling machine (128 tackles last year). If they get the Broncos to retain a a bit, they'd have enough cap left over to add another body as well.

 

[Husko]

That's why you build through the draft.

For all the capologists out there:

How does Beane work next season? Bills have $276M on the books and the current cap is $227M. Is it expected to go up so significantly that it makes up the $50M? Or a good chunk of it?

Thanks in advance.

Edit: I saw on Spotrac that the cap typically goes up $20M in non-COVID effected years. So Beane might just have to figure out $30M.

Yeah I imagine they'll be about 30 over the projected cap. How to get there:
-White post-June 1 cut saves $10 million. Could also restructure/take a pay cut
-Knox post June 1 cut only saves $2 million, but he's ripe for a forced pay cut in exchange for guaranteed money, since he has none left coming his way
-Taron has a cap hit of 12 million in the final year of his deal. He'll certainly be extended, bringing that cap hit way down
-Morse savings of 8.5 million if you want to move on
-Poyer savings of 5.5 million if he continues to get worse
-Harty savings of 4 million if they decided the dart throw isn't worth it (or forced pay cut)
-Gilliam savings of 2 million, more likely a pay cut/extension/restructure

And all that is without the easy but more painful long term options of:
-Restructure to convert Allen's base and other one-year bonuses into signing bonuses, saving up to a boat load of money (but pushing it into the future)
-Can do the same with Diggs, could save 10-15 million that way
-Can do the same with Von, but I dont know if you want to with his age
-Dawkins is going into the final year of his deal, so it would be an extension not a restructure

 

[sabresfan129103]

I think they're stuck with Von Miller for 1 more year regardless. It was basically a 3 year deal.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Is the philosophy to start pulling all-pro caliber players out of thin air? Because we could really use that, right now. And an extra fifty million in cap space to make up for all the guys on IR.

The Eagles grabbed a Pro Bowl safety last night for two late picks and player... just sayin'

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Even the 49ers have looked mortal over the last few... It makes me feel a tad ( not much) better about the Bills struggles..

 

[brian_griffin]

I gotta see that illegal man downfield flag again -- Jones had that ball out in like a second post-snap, and I genuinely find it hard to believe that any O-lineman can get down the field far enough for a flag to be thrown in the span of a literal second or second and a half. Because I'm pretty sure that illegal man downfield is dependent on when the ball comes out of the QB's arm. I think it looked a lot worse than it actually was because it took that ball FOREVER to hit the RB. Like, I think the ball was in the air longer than it took for Jones to get the snap and throw the ball.

And thinking back to the Benford picked-up PI........I think I was thinking "Hm, certainly a hold/grab or an illegal contact call but not necessarily PI". I do remember there being significant contact between Benford and the WR.

There is no illegal man downfield for passes completed behind the line of scrimmage.

 

[JLewyB]

There is no illegal man downfield for passes completed behind the line of scrimmage.

Screen passes have that penalty all of the time. Thats why they talk about the timing of it is so important.

 

[Zman5778]

My current thought is Josey Jewell makes a ton of sense

Expiring contract, Broncos can eat some of the salary, and we have two 3rd round picks. He's as close to an in place replacement for Milano as you will find. Not the same level, but a tackling machine (128 tackles last year). If they get the Broncos to retain a a bit, they'd have enough cap left over to add another body as well.

I've had that thought too, and I wouldn't mind that acquisition at all. That said, I still think I'd rather see Beane go get another DT that can rush the passer.......or maybe a better blocking TE depending on how long Knox is injured.

 

[Zman5778]

View attachment 756890

I'm not sure that means much of anything -- with the way we're getting injured, that cap space might be just to sign PS guys to the active roster and not much more.

 

[Husko]

There is no illegal man downfield for passes completed behind the line of scrimmage.

Yes there is. The rule only specifies that it has to be a forward pass, not past the LOS.

SECTION 3 INELIGIBLE PLAYER DOWNFIELD ARTICLE 1. LEGAL AND ILLEGAL ACTS. On a scrimmage play during which a legal forward pass is thrown, it is a foul if the entire body of an ineligible offensive player, including a T-Formation Quarterback, is more than one yard beyond the line of scrimmage before the pass has been thrown.

 

[misterchainsaw]

There is no illegal man downfield for passes completed behind the line of scrimmage.

You're thinking of OPI. You can start blocking downfield, but linemen can't get out ahead of the throw

 

[Der Jaeger]

Yeah I imagine they'll be about 30 over the projected cap. How to get there:
-White post-June 1 cut saves $10 million. Could also restructure/take a pay cut
-Knox post June 1 cut only saves $2 million, but he's ripe for a forced pay cut in exchange for guaranteed money, since he has none left coming his way
-Taron has a cap hit of 12 million in the final year of his deal. He'll certainly be extended, bringing that cap hit way down
-Morse savings of 8.5 million if you want to move on
-Poyer savings of 5.5 million if he continues to get worse
-Harty savings of 4 million if they decided the dart throw isn't worth it (or forced pay cut)
-Gilliam savings of 2 million, more likely a pay cut/extension/restructure

And all that is without the easy but more painful long term options of:
-Restructure to convert Allen's base and other one-year bonuses into signing bonuses, saving up to a boat load of money (but pushing it into the future)
-Can do the same with Diggs, could save 10-15 million that way
-Can do the same with Von, but I dont know if you want to with his age
-Dawkins is going into the final year of his deal, so it would be an extension not a restructure

I went onto Spotrac and did most of what you wrote:

- restructured Knox (it was an automatic restructure)
- restructured White
- released Morse
- released Harty
- released Poyer
- released Hines

That got me to -$4M in cap space.

Restructured Allen and brought back Morse for a final season. $5M in cap space available. $13M if they let Morse go (which I think would be a mistake).

Bills are fine, Beane can figure it out.

 

[buffa dud]

Carr signed with the Saints from the Raiders. And that is the move you make when you don't have a franchise QB...

Good call. But I'd argue that's the move you make when you lack vision, because GMs have to know that if you haven't already found your guy you had better start looking. And the only way that happens is if you go through the rebuild process. Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones... these are guys that will keep you in QB purgatory.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Good call. But I'd argue that's the move you make when you lack vision, because GMs have to know that if you haven't already found your guy you had better start looking. And the only way that happens is if you go through the rebuild process. Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones... these are guys that will keep you in QB purgatory.

Um. Baker Mayfield was the end result of a "rebuilding" (aka tanking) process. He was 1st overall. Jones was 6th. Both of those guys were taken higher than Allen (albeit Jones was a different draft year).

 

[Jim Bob]

Good call. But I'd argue that's the move you make when you lack vision, because GMs have to know that if you haven't already found your guy you had better start looking. And the only way that happens is if you go through the rebuild process. Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones... these are guys that will keep you in QB purgatory.

A lot of times, it is not the GMs call to try and go with a QB like Derek Carr. It is the owner that is unwilling to commit to being really bad and getting a top 5 pick to go after a QB.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Goes back to what we were saying during the pre-season. Josh has too often either missed or refused to use hot routes when the defense is sending too many to block. Even the short passes he does throw are when he's scanned the field and nothing else is open deep, which takes too long and allows the defense time to rally to the outlet routes and stop them for a much shorter gain (and makes it very difficult for the outlets to make men miss)