Value of: Sean Monahan to Winnipeg

[HuGort]

Wouldn’t even do it for Barlow

I am higher on Barlow than most

 

[Romang67]

Where the heck is this narrative that Monahan can't defend coming from? He's solid defensively.

If he stays healthy until the tdl, he's 100% returning a 1st round pick. He's the kind of player that teams love to get for a playoff run.

He plays all situations (pp, pk, ev), he's versatile (can play wing and center), he can play anywhere in the lineup (top 6 or bottom 6), he's great on faceoffs (6th in the nhl among players that have taken 400+ faceoffs), he's got loads of nhl experience, has leadership qualities, and he only has 2 M cap hit, which is extremely affordable.

He's really not. Never has been. He has been negative (i.e. better than) compared to his teammates in GA/60 and xGA/60 twice in his entire career. And the times he has been negative in xGA/60, it was by 0.01 each season.

He's bad defensively. Always has been. This isn't new. He was a purely offensive scorer back in Calgary as well until he lost his top 6 position.

And he stopped being good at scoring as age an injuries happened.

 

[Weezeric]

He would be 13th among Jets forwards at 5v5 p/60….

 

[pth2]

Where the heck is this narrative that Monahan can't defend coming from? He's solid defensively.

If he stays healthy until the tdl, he's 100% returning a 1st round pick. He's the kind of player that teams love to get for a playoff run.

He plays all situations (pp, pk, ev), he's versatile (can play wing and center), he can play anywhere in the lineup (top 6 or bottom 6), he's great on faceoffs (6th in the nhl among players that have taken 400+ faceoffs), he's got loads of nhl experience, has leadership qualities, and he only has a 2 M cap hit, which is extremely affordable.

I like the player, but he's just OK defensively. I've seen him miss assignments and cost us goals. That being said, he's also quite smart offensively, and those criticizing his lack of offense will be surprised when he puts up better numbers when playing with better offensive players, rather than the Habs middling middle six.

 

[pth2]

Monahan to the Jets?

I’d guess that the Habs would get their second back and a “B” type prospect. Maybe Zach Nehring? I think that’s probably fair value for both sides. Habs could use a big physical winger prospect with a decent scoring touch.

It's fascinating how there are offers of Montreal adding to get a 1st round prospect, or like this suggesting a 2nd and a prospect drafted in the 3d, and there are still many who just see it all as being completely out of line with reality... even though at the deadline 2nd round picks are basically handed out like candy...

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Where the heck is this narrative that Monahan can't defend coming from?

Probably from years of observation and defensive numbers that align with that conclusion?

 

[lamp9post]

He would be 13th among Jets forwards at 5v5 p/60….

Winnipeg is 8th in goals for, Montreal is 27th. Do you think that could be a factor?

Also, Warren Foegele is ahead of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in terms of 5v5 P/60 so that should tell you how useful that stat is.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I am higher on Barlow than most

Lambert has essentially the same PPG in the AHL as Barlow has this year in the OHL...

 

[HabsAddict]

There is no reason the Habs should trade Monahan for anything less then what they want. He's not expensive nor do the Habs need some long shot 2nd/3rd rounder when we have a ton of prospects already.

Chances are he's going to resign so this thread is a lot of noise over nothing.

 

[pth2]

There is no reason the Habs should trade Monahan for anything less then what they want. He's not expensive nor do the Habs need some long shot 2nd/3rd rounder when we have a ton of prospects already.

Chances are he's going to resign so this thread is a lot of noise over nothing.

I'd add that if Monahan really is worth nothing more than a 4th rounder, it would follow that he won't be getting much of a contract for next season, so it becomes that much more likely the Habs re-sign him.

If he's moved for less than a 2nd, I'll be disappointed, since if he isn't worth that, he's not getting an unreasonable next contract.

 

[Romang67]

Winnipeg is 8th in goals for, Montreal is 27th. Do you think that could be a factor?

Also, Warren Foegele is ahead of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in terms of 5v5 P/60 so that should tell you how useful that stat is.

Yeah, P/60 can be misleading since some players have much more ice time 5v5 than others.

Monahan would be 12th among Jets forwards in 5v5 points.

 

[DavidpauseReinbacher]

You willingly asked Habs nation what it would cost to get a 40 point player from them?

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Another guy who could make sense for the Rangers.

 

[Habssince89]

Another guy who could make sense for the Rangers.

I keep thinking this as well. He'd fit really well in that forward group

 

[Maukkis]

Winnipeg is 8th in goals for, Montreal is 27th. Do you think that could be a factor?

Also, Warren Foegele is ahead of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in terms of 5v5 P/60 so that should tell you how useful that stat is.

Bad teams tend to produce bad results, so yes, it's likely a factor.

Also, comparing scoring rates instead of totals is the way to go. If you play half the minutes of another player, chances are you'll be outscored by a country mile. Among forwards with 200+ minutes of 5v5 TOI, Monahan ranks at 280, which suggests that he produces like a lower-end third liner with the minutes he's been given. Doesn't sound too good.

 

[TS Quint]

Both teams should aim higher. Jets should get a better player and if Habs can't do better than 2nd round value I'd rather just resign him. Lots of evaluation by stat watching on a guy who plays with complete offensive black holes, he's been nothing but a positive surprise since coming to Montreal

Just like every player on the Habs “he’s great, if it wasn’t for the guys he’s playing with”.

 

[Heldig]

For real Monahan is not a top 6 in WPG but fans will love to have him as their 3rd C that can play PK and also PP, he is very good at everything but not great offensively, if my team gave up a 2nd and a B prospect for him I would be ok with it.

Lowry is our 3C.

What the Jets need is a PP specialist or a significant upgrade at 2C - a true 2 way C that can cover for Kyle Connors complete lack of D zone awareness.

 

[TS Quint]

Well, by Habs fan reasoning exhibited in this thread, if Monahan is comparable to Lindholm because they are close in points this season, then Namestnikov is comparable to Monahan for the same reason…
Monahan: GP-39, G-10, A-13, Pts-23
Lindholm: GP-40, G-8, A-17, Pts-25
Namestnikov: GP-36, G-5, A-18, Pts-23
actually, Namestnikov has done it in fewer games, so I guess he’s better…

And Names does it 5 on 5. Half of Monahans poins come on the PP, which he wouldn’t get much time playing on the Jets.

The offer is nothing.

I don't know what's in Winipeg's water but they should do tests. Canadiens fans are known for overestimating the value of their players and I agree that we do that sometimes. But some Winipeg fans are on another planet….good luck in the playoff with your second center Namesnikov…

The only 2C the Habs have to offer is Suzuki.

 

[Pongs21]

I think a lot of Monahan's perceived value is going to come from his cheap contract, which will be much more valuable to teams who have been in LTIR all year. Jets will have about 5mil, so his contract is way less relevant with regards to his overall value to the Jets, than to those teams who are much more cap strapped.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Monahan is on pace for less than fifty points while getting top six minutes. When Calgary moved Monahan into a bottom six role, he was useless. He's not the best skater, isn't physical, and is not great defensively.

I don't see Monahan as the type of player teams will look to attain for a playoff run. A guy like Domi had lots of jam, which Monahan doesn't have.

He's playing with Evans, Anderson and Gallagher, been on pace for 50 points is a miracle.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

He's really not. Never has been. He has been negative (i.e. better than) compared to his teammates in GA/60 and xGA/60 twice in his entire career. And the times he has been negative in xGA/60, it was by 0.01 each season.

He's bad defensively. Always has been. This isn't new. He was a purely offensive scorer back in Calgary as well until he lost his top 6 position.

And he stopped being good at scoring as age an injuries happened.

Probably from years of observation and defensive numbers that align with that conclusion?

So I guess Caufield is the best defensive forward on the habs and he is having a Selke caliber season?



That's what the stats say...

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So I guess Caufield is the best defensive forward on the habs and he is having a Selke caliber season?



That's what the stats say...

GA/60 is not a reliable defensive metric, especially over such small sample sizes.

In this case Caufield is benefiting from a 95.24% sv% when he's on the ice.

 

[Romang67]

So I guess Caufield is the best defensive forward on the habs and he is having a Selke caliber season?



That's what the stats say...

Surely you didn't stop reading after I mentioned GA/60 when the next word was "and"?

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Well, by Habs fan reasoning exhibited in this thread, if Monahan is comparable to Lindholm because they are close in points this season, then Namestnikov is comparable to Monahan for the same reason…
Monahan: GP-39, G-10, A-13, Pts-23
Lindholm: GP-40, G-8, A-17, Pts-25
Namestnikov: GP-36, G-5, A-18, Pts-23
actually, Namestnikov has done it in fewer games, so I guess he’s better…

One is playing with Ehlers and Perfetti the other with Evans and Gallagher/Anderson...

Lindholm plays with Mangiapane and Huberdeau.

Evans, Gallagher/Anderson make current Huberdeau look like an All-Star...

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Surely you didn't stop reading after I mentioned GA/60 when the next word was "and"?

and xGA? It doesn't help your point

On the Habs at 5 on 5, Caufield is 2nd and Xhekaj, who was sent to the ahl and told to work on his defensive game, is 3rd.