Blue Jays Discussion: Saunders > Bruce; Tulo and Bautista trade DL spots

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TF97

Registered User
Jul 4, 2010
12,291
478
Halifax, NS
Estrada is awesome and probably the top 10 pitcher in last 2 years

In terms of WAR...

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Jake Arrieta
3. Chris Sale
4. Corey Kluber
5. Max Scherzer
6. David Price
7. Zack Greinke
8. Jose Quintana
9. Dallas Keuchel
10. Madison Bumgarner

Marco sits at #37 with a WAR of 3.5
 

Loosie

The Eternal Optimist
Jun 14, 2011
16,074
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Kitchener, Ontario
Good call then - hope he's ok!

He said he first felt the twinge in his back during batting practice. I have a feeling if he is still not feeling the greatest his start in Colorado might get skipped (counting out the games he'd be scheduled to start the first game of the series in Colorado)
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
18,886
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Toronto
In terms of WAR...

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Jake Arrieta
3. Chris Sale
4. Corey Kluber
5. Max Scherzer
6. David Price
7. Zack Greinke
8. Jose Quintana
9. Dallas Keuchel
10. Madison Bumgarner

Marco sits at #37 with a WAR of 3.5

Pitcher WAR uses FIP which is always going to be unfriendly to Marco

Since the start of the 2015 season he is 13th in ERA and 8th in WHIP. From a pure performance and non-predictive standpoint there's definitely an argument for him being in the top 10 (although more likely he sits just outside of it).
 

TF97

Registered User
Jul 4, 2010
12,291
478
Halifax, NS
Pitcher WAR uses FIP which is always going to be unfriendly to Marco

Since the start of the 2015 season he is 13th in ERA and 8th in WHIP. From a pure performance and non-predictive standpoint there's definitely an argument for him being in the top 10 (although more likely he sits just outside of it).
I know, it's just I'm on my phone so WAR was the best I could do :laugh:

In terms of performance, his ERA/WHIP would put him near the top 10 but I'd peg him somewhere around 15-20.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
In terms of WAR...

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Jake Arrieta
3. Chris Sale
4. Corey Kluber
5. Max Scherzer
6. David Price
7. Zack Greinke
8. Jose Quintana
9. Dallas Keuchel
10. Madison Bumgarner

Marco sits at #37 with a WAR of 3.5

that's fWAR.

He's 12th in ra9WAR at 7.5.

He's 16th in bWAR at 6.3.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
No I haven't heard any rumor and it's a pure speculation and my gut feeling that Jose is not going to sign and will be traded before the trade deadline

a 1st place team won't be trading away elite hitters.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
13,547
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Washington, DC
Marco is 11th among qualified starters over 2015-2016 in ERA-, tied with Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard. Behind Arrieta, Kershaw, Greinke, Chatwood (lol), Maeda, Cole, Lackey, Bumgarner, deGrom and Price.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
13,547
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Those expecting Bautista (or Edwin\any of the Blue Jays impending free agents) to be traded should probably realize the likelihood is that they'll be kept, qualified, and the franchise will receive the comp pick. (ex. the Cardinals with Pujols in 2011).
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
11,256
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Those expecting Bautista (or Edwin\any of the Blue Jays impending free agents) to be traded should probably realize the likelihood is that they'll be kept, qualified, and the franchise will receive the comp pick. (ex. the Cardinals with Pujols in 2011).

Yep. And unless the team completely collapses in the next month, it's the only reasonable move in this situation.
 

Discoverer

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Are there still people who want Barney or Goins to start at SS, or has Tulo shut them all up again?
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
13,547
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Its actually interesting looking ahead to see who will be qualified.

- Bautista (QO)
- Encarnacion (QO)
- Dickey (QO)
- Storen
- Chavez
- Smoak
- Cecil (QO)
- Saunders (QO)
- Barney
- Floyd

That's a lot of comp picks if you fail to re-sign the ones you'd actually like to bring back (i.e. Edwin, Saunders, Cecil, Bautista).
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
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So Vlad jr. is making his debut with Bluefield tomorrow. Will be interested to see how he does

pretty encouraging that this patient FO skipped him up to bluefield, especially since they weren't the ones who signed him. he must have really impressed in extended.

this puts A-Ball in reach this year if he excels.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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First 132pa: 7.6ld%, .189babip, 52wrc+
Last 70pa: 17.6ld%, .319babip, 150wrc+

Yep... and I'll continue to stand by my assertion from earlier this season that a 3-4 month slump followed by a bounceback to close to career norms is not all that uncommon.
 

Discoverer

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pretty encouraging that this patient FO skipped him up to bluefield, especially since they weren't the ones who signed him. he must have really impressed in extended.

this puts A-Ball in reach this year if he excels.

I still have no idea how you see them as "patient" just because Alford stayed in Dunedin.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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they moved a number of top prospects back a level (pompey hutch alford srf greene), and have only very recently made their first real promotion (srf). They have a some pretty good prospects like perdomo and harris dominating 2 levels lower than their age bracket. Seems pretty obvious what their philosophy is.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
13,547
2,996
Washington, DC
pretty encouraging that this patient FO skipped him up to bluefield, especially since they weren't the ones who signed him. he must have really impressed in extended.

this puts A-Ball in reach this year if he excels.

The Appy and the GCL don't differ greatly in terms of age (20.8 v. 20.6 in 2015) or quality, and both considered rookie level ball.

The likelihood of him reaching Lansing in 2016 is very, very, very low.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
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Actually there is a distinct difference in quality, and most all teenage prospects start in the gcl before moving up the appy, never the reverse.

and most any top prospect who excels in either rookie league gets bumped up a level or two before the end of the year. rarely do they stay put.
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
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Toronto
Its actually interesting looking ahead to see who will be qualified.

- Bautista (QO)
- Encarnacion (QO)
- Dickey (QO)
- Storen
- Chavez
- Smoak
- Cecil (QO)
- Saunders (QO)
- Barney
- Floyd

That's a lot of comp picks if you fail to re-sign the ones you'd actually like to bring back (i.e. Edwin, Saunders, Cecil, Bautista).

I don't see how you could qualify Cecil, unless he is absolutely this-point-on-2015-level lights out. No chance he gets anywhere close to $16M on the open market.

But Saunders seemingly playing himself into the situation is certainly nice.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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they moved a number of top prospects back a level (pompey hutch alford srf greene), and have only very recently made their first real promotion (srf). They have a some pretty good prospects like perdomo and harris dominating 2 levels lower than their age bracket. Seems pretty obvious what their philosophy is.

Reid-Foley walked 6.61/9IP with Dunedin last year. Greene had BB and K problems in his stint in New Hampshire. There was ample evidence that they weren't ready for those levels.

Hutch and Pompey clearly don't fit this category, since their inclusion has nothing to do with their ability to succeed at the next level. They were both "held back" because there wasn't room for them on the Jays.

I agree that they should have been more aggressive with Alford given his success at every level. Then again, look how he's doing this year.

We had this discussion before, but the fact remains that Anthony Alford is the only prospect who had actually earned a chance to start a level higher than he actually did when the season started.

Remember 2014, when the Jays were super-aggressive in promoting Norris and Pompey through the system? Norris got his first promotion June 18, Pompey June 27. Reid-Foley was June 16, Rios (who... I guess you're not counting him because he wasn't a top prospect heading into the season, but he's the same age Norris was at the time) May 12.

For the most part, the promotion timelines look about the same as the previous regime.
 
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