Blue Jays Discussion: Saunders > Bruce; Tulo and Bautista trade DL spots

[Discoverer]

I don't see how you could qualify Cecil, unless he is absolutely this-point-on-2015-level lights out. No chance he gets anywhere close to $16M on the open market.

But Saunders seemingly playing himself into the situation is certainly nice.

If they could sign Saunders to a reasonable 2-3 year extension right now, I would be really happy.

If Cecil is typical Cecil the rest of the year, he would likely be in line for something like what O'Day/Miller got the last couple years. If that's the case, he would probably be a borderline QO candidate, but I don't know that it would be worth the risk of having a ~$16 million reliever next year.

 

[zeke]

Reid-Foley walked 6.61/9IP with Dunedin last year. Greene had BB and K problems in his stint in New Hampshire. There was ample evidence that they weren't ready for those levels.

They dominated the previous levels and earned their promotions. Having some issues in heir first few starts at the next level doesn't mean you send them back down to a level they already dominated - unless there's a philosophical shift going on.

Hutch and Pompey clearly don't fit this category, since their inclusion has nothing to do with their ability to succeed at the next level. They were both "held back" because there wasn't room for them on the Jays.

There was always room for them if they wanted to be aggressive. But they didn't.

I agree that they should have been more aggressive with Alford given his success at every level. Then again, look how he's doing this year.

We had this discussion before, but the fact remains that Anthony Alford is the only prospect who had actually earned a chance to start a level higher than he actually did when the season started.

Nope. They clearly sent most all of our top young talent back to levels they had already dominated and earned promotions from, and have only recently made their first re-promotion.

They also have a number of other notable prospects playing at lower than age appropriate levels.

Their philosophy is pretty obvious to me.

Remember 2014, when the Jays were super-aggressive in promoting Norris and Pompey through the system? Norris got his first promotion June 18, Pompey June 27. Reid-Foley was June 16, Rios (who... I guess you're not counting him because he wasn't a top prospect heading into the season, but he's the same age Norris was at the time) May 12.

For the most part, the promotion timelines look about the same as the previous regime.

Norris and Pompey were earning their first promotions, and weren't trying to earn 2nd promotions after being demoted.

 

[Discoverer]

There was always room for them if they wanted to be aggressive. But they didn't

You understand how disingenuous this sounds, right? Should Pompey have been the backup over Carrera or the starter over one of Saunders/Pillar/Bautista? Should Hutch have been in the rotation over Stroman/Sanchez/Estrada/Happ/Dickey, the longman over Chavez/Floyd, or a middle reliever?

They weren't being "held back". They were being put in a position where they could get the most playing time possible.

Norris and Pompey were earning their first promotions, and weren't trying to earn 2nd promotions after being demoted.

They also never had the struggles at any level that Reid-Foley and Greene had to warrant a demotion.

 

[Scrub*]

Today's lineup

Devon Travis (R) 2B
Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH
Michael Saunders (L) LF
Russell Martin (R) C
Troy Tulowitzki (R) SS
Justin Smoak (S) 1B
Kevin Pillar (R) CF
Darrell Ceciliani (L) RF

 

[BertCorbeau]

Nice to see Travis finally leading off .. Hopefully he sticks there. I have no issues with zeke but would rather have him at the bottom of the order.

 

[Discoverer]

Nice to see Travis finally leading off .. Hopefully he sticks there. I have no issues with zeke but would rather have him at the bottom of the order.

Yeah, that's the only qualm I had with yesterday's lineup. Just get straight into the big boys... why mess around just to have a little speed at the top?

But... god damn, even without Bautista that lineup looks terrifying right now.

 

[MJ65]

Today's lineup

Devon Travis (R) 2B
Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH
Michael Saunders (L) LF
Russell Martin (R) C
Troy Tulowitzki (R) SS
Justin Smoak (S) 1B
Kevin Pillar (R) CF
Darrell Ceciliani (L) RF

Carrera - just a day off?

 

[zeke]

donaldson ee moved back up. nice.

gibbons must have been pissed at himself during the game for pushing them down....because of a carrera hot streak of all things.

nice to see Ceciliani get a chance but damn that woulda been Pompey if he wasn't concussed. and with bautista out a while pompey might have got a good run out there...enough to maybe move bautista to 1B/DH when he returned. damn damn damn.

 

[p.l.f.]

Carrera suffered a mild achilles injury last night
says he's better today
- Barry Davis

 

[zeke]

You understand how disingenuous this sounds, right? Should Pompey have been the backup over Carrera or the starter over one of Saunders/Pillar/Bautista? Should Hutch have been in the rotation over Stroman/Sanchez/Estrada/Happ/Dickey, the longman over Chavez/Floyd, or a middle reliever?

They weren't being "held back". They were being put in a position where they could get the most playing time possible.

they could have made plenty of playing time for both.

They also never had the struggles at any level that Reid-Foley and Greene had to warrant a demotion.

posting a 3.81fip in your first 8 starts or a 4.15fip in your first 5 at a new level is not the stuff demotions are made of.

and yes, pompey and norris most definitely did have early struggles at most levels.

 

[Scrub*]

Carrera - just a day off?

The Jays are off tomorrow as well.. after that, we play 16 days in a row before the all star break.

Maybe he tweaked something , could really use him the next couple weeks.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I don't see how you could qualify Cecil, unless he is absolutely this-point-on-2015-level lights out. No chance he gets anywhere close to $16M on the open market.

But Saunders seemingly playing himself into the situation is certainly nice.

I'm assuming he comes back and has his 2015 second half; then goes for the years in free agency.

If he does not, or is mediocre\injured the rest of the year, then its completely different and you are correct.

 

[Discoverer]

posting a 3.81fip in your first 8 starts or a 4.15fip in your first 5 at a new level is not the stuff demotions are made of.

It is when there are huge red flags, like horrible walk and/or strikeout rates.

 

[Deebo]

I'm assuming he comes back and has his 2015 second half; then goes for the years in free agency.

If he does not, or is mediocre\injured the rest of the year, then its completely different and you are correct.

Even if he has a great season after returning, what do you think he is worth on a multi-year deal?

 

[Longshot]

Its actually interesting looking ahead to see who will be qualified.

- Bautista (QO)
- Encarnacion (QO)
- Dickey (QO)
- Storen
- Chavez
- Smoak
- Cecil (QO)
- Saunders (QO)
- Barney
- Floyd

That's a lot of comp picks if you fail to re-sign the ones you'd actually like to bring back (i.e. Edwin, Saunders, Cecil, Bautista).

I don't see any chance they qualify Cecil.

He would be nuts to turn down a one year $16 million year. No what in Hades they tie up $16 million in a reliever.

 

[Longshot]

Those expecting Bautista (or Edwin\any of the Blue Jays impending free agents) to be traded should probably realize the likelihood is that they'll be kept, qualified, and the franchise will receive the comp pick. (ex. the Cardinals with Pujols in 2011).

Thanks for pointing that out.

There are so many legitimate arguments against them being traded, that any speculation about trades becomes silly.

1. The Jays are in contention. You don't trade star sluggers in the final year of their contracts when you're a contending team. Why? Well, there are a number of reasons, but the main one is: the only teams that would be interested in two aging sluggers in their walk years are other contenders and the odds of a trade lining up perfectly with another contender are astronomical. In other words, the only way a potential trade becomes feasible is if the Jays fall out of contention and decide to try (see number 3) and move one or both for a package of young prospects.

2. Any return on a trade would have to have more value than the compensatory draft pick the Jays will receive when Bautista and EE turn down qualifying offers.

3. They are both 10 and 5 players. Meaning, they control their own fate. The Jays can't just decide to trade them without first getting their permission.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Alford played today for Dunedin

 

[canucksfan]

Bullpen is doing better. Need Cecil to come back and do what he did last year or similar.

BP lacks a lefty

 

[frost king]

With the Jays putting 88,000 bums in the seats against Arizona in a mid-week series, and with the school season closed and the summer holiday season starting, could the Blue Jays reach 3.2+ Million fans? With attendance at 1.322 million as of yesterday, with an average of 37,775 per game after 35 dates. Take the average and play it out to 81 games, it puts them at 3 million. Assuming they don't sell out a single game. Looking forward, they could probably sell out at least half if not more of those games. I have read, in the Globe & Mail, that the figure, that the average fan drops $100 a piece at a game including the cost of the ticket. So they could have $70 million in extra revenue generated. As of right now, they are $42 million ahead of last year at the same point in the schedule. We are just talking about revenues generated from the fans, not including radio and TV numbers. They should have more than enough money to take care of there free agent issues.

 

[dredeye]

With the Jays putting 88,000 bums in the seats against Arizona in a mid-week series, and with the school season closed and the summer holiday season starting, could the Blue Jays reach 3.2+ Million fans? With attendance at 1.322 million as of yesterday, with an average of 37,775 per game after 35 dates. Take the average and play it out to 81 games, it puts them at 3 million. Assuming they don't sell out a single game. Looking forward, they could probably sell out at least half if not more of those games. I have read, in the Globe & Mail, that the figure, that the average fan drops $100 a piece at a game including the cost of the ticket. So they could have $70 million in extra revenue generated. As of right now, they are $42 million ahead of last year at the same point in the schedule. We are just talking about revenues generated from the fans, not including radio and TV numbers. They should have more than enough money to take care of there free agent issues.

What free agent issues?

 

[Gallagbi]

I'll be back tomorrow when the Pen blows the lead with Osuna watching.

Good call.

 

[p.l.f.]

Uehara blows it
Jays just 0.5 back of Boston

 

[hockeywiz542]

Wade Leblanc traded for cash. Odd move.

According to The Seattle Times, Wade LeBlanc had an opt-out clause in his minor league contract for June 15, 2016.

Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said:

"The window for Wade LeBlanc's exit had closed, but the Toronto Blue Jays were great to deal with and they accommodated our needs."

http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...nder-wade-leblanc-from-the-toronto-blue-jays/

Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto continued to make moves on Wednesday, acquiring veteran left-handed pitcher Wade LeBlanc from the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Since it’s a minor league trade, LeBlanc does not have to be added to the 40-man roster. But he soon will be. By all indications, he will start on Friday night in Seattle against the Cardinals in place of Taijuan Walker, who is battling tendinitis in his foot. LeBlanc last pitched on Sunday for Buffalo. The Mariners will have to make a roster move to add LeBlanc to the 40-man and 25-man roster.

LeBlanc had an opt-out clause in his minor league contract for June 15.

“We were over in Tampa and we knew our pitching staff was in some degree of turbulence,” Dipoto said. “That’s right about when we were battling through with Wade Miley. We felt like we wanted to go internal for that start. But when the issues sprung up with Taijuan’s foot, then we were of the mindset that we need to go outside of the organization to find a little more depth. We had just engaged with the Blue Jays and then tapped back in. The window for his exit had closed, but they were great to deal with and they accommodated our needs.”

“He’s been productive in the big leagues,” Dipoto said. “Wade doesn’t get a lot of love because of the fastball isn’t overpowering But he knows how to pitch, he strikes guys out despite the fact he doesn’t have overpowering velocity. He has real out pitches and he’s not afraid to throw it over the plate.”

 

[darko]

Pitcher WAR uses FIP which is always going to be unfriendly to Marco

Since the start of the 2015 season he is 13th in ERA and 8th in WHIP. From a pure performance and non-predictive standpoint there's definitely an argument for him being in the top 10 (although more likely he sits just outside of it).

Unreal.

More underrated than Jose Quintana.

 

[theaub]

What free agent issues?

Free agent issues may have not technically been the right term, but if payroll doesn't get into the $150M range after this season I give up on Rogers.

If they tell me that payroll is not going up because this attendance isn't 'sustainable' in the long run I might throw up.

With the Jays putting 88,000 bums in the seats against Arizona in a mid-week series, and with the school season closed and the summer holiday season starting, could the Blue Jays reach 3.2+ Million fans?

Also to actually answer this question, my attendance model (fml I actually have one) projects a best case of 3.35M fans, an average of 3.11M fans and a worst case of 2.88M fans.

So basically if the Jays are in contention all summer, yeah I'd say there's a very, very good chance they hit the 3.2M mark.