Has Connor Bedard quietly became underrated ?

[CantHaveTkachev]

The thing about Mack though is that underneath his early struggles, you could see an absolute beast and physical freak that just hadn't figured it out. Bedard doesn't have that quality.

That and the emergence of Mikko Rantanen...then Cale Makar after

Bedard doesn't have a running mate like McDavid with Draisaitl or a Crosby with Malkin

he's on an island right now

 

[Maple Leaf]

ah yes the quietly underrated thread

 

[belfour30]

Did his game change at all after breaking his jaw? He had 9 goals his first 13 games in the league. Only 16 goals in the 72 games since. Or was the fast start because the league didn't know him yet.

My guess is they quickly found out that he's the only real offensive threat on the team and they started swarming him.

I never thought he was in the McDavid/Crosby tier but the next one after that, he might still get there.

It takes a hell of a lot of talent to score 70 pts by yourself.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Did his game change at all after breaking his jaw? He had 9 goals his first 13 games in the league. Only 16 goals in the 72 games since. Or was the fast start because the league didn't know him yet.

5v5 stats:

First 13 games
23.5% shooting percentage
11.2 shots/60
4.61 iHDCF/60
1.39 ixG/60 vs 2.62 G/60

Last 72 games
7.8% shooting percentage
7.6 shots/60
2.68 iHDCF/60
0.84 ixG/60 vs 0.59 G/60

Long story short, he was getting a lot more shots and high quality chances in those first 13 games, and was getting really good puck luck to go along with it. Then something happened, either fatigue, or the fact that teams and goaltenders adjusted. His shot rate, high danger chance rate, and ixG rate all plummeted - the eye test suggests he's having a really hard time getting to the middle of the ice, and teams have been able to keep him to the perimeter without too much trouble. His shooting luck regressed as well, which compounded those factors.

The data seems to suggest he's shooting a lot more from the perimeter than he was at the start of his career, though both his shooting attempt volume and expected goals have dropped dramatically over the course of his career - definitely not trending in the direction you'd expect for a player of his pedigree. The graph below is his career rolling CF/60 and ixG/60 numbers at 5v5:

Regardless, this is starting to look less and less like just a cold streak, and increasingly seems like he needs to make some serious adjustments.

 

[WarriorofTime]

That and the emergence of Mikko Rantanen...then Cale Makar after

Bedard doesn't have a running mate like McDavid with Draisaitl or a Crosby with Malkin

he's on an island right now

We're all crossing our fingers in Chicago that the 2025 Draft Pick is a big impact forward, lol.

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

Maybe too much Fortnite...but realistically the league adjusted to him and now he'll have to adjust back.

 

[Boxscore]

Underrated? I mean, Michkov has him doubled in goals and the same amount of points in 2 less games. I don't think underrated is even an option.

 

[Schennanigans]

lol the hex thread never fails.

 

[OvisOfficeSecretary]

He’s extremely overrated. Hasn’t impressed me in the NHL. Chicago should have taken Michkov instead. “Generational talent” my ass. What a joke.

That and the emergence of Mikko Rantanen...then Cale Makar after

Bedard doesn't have a running mate like McDavid with Draisaitl or a Crosby with Malkin

he's on an island right now

I can assure you a legit star like McDavid could still blow past Bedard in points while on the current Blackhawks. And turn guys on Chicago into 60+ point players. Bedard just isn’t good right now.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I just don't think Bedard was ever close to McDavid and Crosby generational level. His ceiling would make him have a better shot and that's it. His IQ, speed, and endurance won't be as good even in his peak imho. I do still think he'll be a player that's comfortably in the Matthews/MacKinnon/Kucherov franchise level category.

 

[OvisOfficeSecretary]

I just don't think Bedard was ever close to McDavid and Crosby generational level. His ceiling would make him have a better shot and that's it. His IQ, speed, and endurance won't be as good even in his peak imho. I do still think he'll be a player that's comfortably in the Matthews/MacKinnon/Kucherov franchise level category.

Doubt he even will be as good as those other guys

Like all he has is his shot (which hasn’t even been effective in the NHL) and that’s it. He’s small, slow, and weak on the puck.

 

[Peasy]

Unfortunate that Chicago has such trash centers that they cant even really try him on the wing for a bit to see how he does.

 

[Prior]

Chicago should be very concerned that they’ve actively tried to be the worst team in the league for as long as they have been now and the best thing they’ve got is a wing that plays the game that Bedard does. Certainly not fully formed at 19 but there’s a long road ahead to get near how he was talked about coming into the league.