Has Connor Bedard quietly became underrated ?

[CantHaveTkachev]

The thing about Mack though is that underneath his early struggles, you could see an absolute beast and physical freak that just hadn't figured it out. Bedard doesn't have that quality.

That and the emergence of Mikko Rantanen...then Cale Makar after

Bedard doesn't have a running mate like McDavid with Draisaitl or a Crosby with Malkin

he's on an island right now

 

[Maple Leaf]

ah yes the quietly underrated thread

 

[belfour30]

Did his game change at all after breaking his jaw? He had 9 goals his first 13 games in the league. Only 16 goals in the 72 games since. Or was the fast start because the league didn't know him yet.

My guess is they quickly found out that he's the only real offensive threat on the team and they started swarming him.

I never thought he was in the McDavid/Crosby tier but the next one after that, he might still get there.

It takes a hell of a lot of talent to score 70 pts by yourself.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Did his game change at all after breaking his jaw? He had 9 goals his first 13 games in the league. Only 16 goals in the 72 games since. Or was the fast start because the league didn't know him yet.

5v5 stats:

First 13 games
23.5% shooting percentage
11.2 shots/60
4.61 iHDCF/60
1.39 ixG/60 vs 2.62 G/60

Last 72 games
7.8% shooting percentage
7.6 shots/60
2.68 iHDCF/60
0.84 ixG/60 vs 0.59 G/60

Long story short, he was getting a lot more shots and high quality chances in those first 13 games, and was getting really good puck luck to go along with it. Then something happened, either fatigue, or the fact that teams and goaltenders adjusted. His shot rate, high danger chance rate, and ixG rate all plummeted - the eye test suggests he's having a really hard time getting to the middle of the ice, and teams have been able to keep him to the perimeter without too much trouble. His shooting luck regressed as well, which compounded those factors.

The data seems to suggest he's shooting a lot more from the perimeter than he was at the start of his career, though both his shooting attempt volume and expected goals have dropped dramatically over the course of his career - definitely not trending in the direction you'd expect for a player of his pedigree. The graph below is his career rolling CF/60 and ixG/60 numbers at 5v5:

Regardless, this is starting to look less and less like just a cold streak, and increasingly seems like he needs to make some serious adjustments.

 

[WarriorofTime]

That and the emergence of Mikko Rantanen...then Cale Makar after

Bedard doesn't have a running mate like McDavid with Draisaitl or a Crosby with Malkin

he's on an island right now

We're all crossing our fingers in Chicago that the 2025 Draft Pick is a big impact forward, lol.