Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

i know we shouldnt be petty but i got told in week 2 thast edm wasnt a contender

 

[GellMann]

i know we shouldnt be petty but i got told in week 2 thast edm wasnt a contender

Somehow I very much believe that if the Sabres had started the year with their bottom six, defense corps, and goalies we'd have finished last easily. Their roster looked putrid, but McDavid just makes everyone score I guess

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Somehow I very much believe that if the Sabres had started the year with their bottom six, defense corps, and goalies we'd have finished last easily. Their roster looked putrid, but McDavid just makes everyone score I guess

well when you take the worst part of a teams roster

you arent making the playoffs with our bottom 6 goaltender and bottom D

and ya mcdavid is something else

 

[GellMann]

well when you take the worst part of a teams roster

you arent making the playoffs with our bottom 6 goaltender and bottom D

and ya mcdavid is something else

I mean, if you swapped ours out with theirs

Skinner - Tage - Tuch
kid line
Edmonton bottom 6

Edmonton D
Edmonton goalies

If you had given me that lineup before the season I would have barfed and said we are tanking for bedard

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I mean, if you swapped ours out with theirs

Skinner - Tage - Tuch
kid line
Edmonton bottom 6

Edmonton D
Edmonton goalies

If you had given me that lineup before the season I would have barfed and said we are tanking for bedard

yes

if you take the worst part of edmontons roster, cut it off from mcdavid and draisaitl, its going to suck

pick any team that doesnt have 2 power house offensive lines

look at the roster you made you took the best part of edmontons roster and got rid of it, then took the best part of buffalos roster and got rid of it, are you surprised whats left is bad?

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

thats exactly the play I wish the sabres did on the pp

 

[Dingo44]

Looks like Jost and Quinn are hanging out in Hilton Head

 

[Club]

 

[Chainshot]

Looks like Jost and Quinn are hanging out in Hilton Head View attachment 690603

Someone (Cozens?) mentioned many of them were all going on a golf vacation this week. I wonder if that's it?

 

[joshjull]

Cool, now do Fox.

Fox's 7 year $9.5M per extension bought 4 UFA years.

Fox also had multiple top 5 Norris seasons (including a Norris Trophy win) when he signed his deal, whereas Dahlin will likely have one (finish TBD obv).

No he didn’t

Fox only played one “normal” NHL season (his rookie season) that ended a bit early bit due to Covid. The he played in the Covid shortened one with the bastardized schedule before signing his extension.

Dahlin will have a season and a half of playing at a very high level when he signs this summer. Thats more than Fox had under his belt.** Plus Dahlin will have done all of that during normal NHL seasons. Fox only played against 7 NHL teams the year he won the Norris. We were one of them.

Fox signed his ELC at age 21 and did the following prior to his extension.

19-20 -> 70gms 42pts (rookie year)
20-21 -> 55gms 47pts (wins Norris)

Dahlin at the same age/year of development as Fox was in those two seasons.

21-22 -> 80gms - 53pts
22-23 -> 78gms - 73pts

Dahlin started in the NHL at 18 and I think we forget how young he still is. Fox was a rookie in his D+4 season. Dahlin already had 3 NHL seasons (197gms) under his belt before he started his D+4 season.

**I don’t think Fox winning the Norris in that bastardized Covid season will matter much in contract talks. Fox produced 30 of his 47pts (64%) that year in 24gms vs the worst 3 teams in that division (Us, Flyers and Devils). Fox really feasted on us with 12pts in 8gms (25% of his total). Dahlin got his points grinding it out over a full NHL season.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Makar's team spends to the cap and makes the playoffs every year.

You’re going to have to stop making things up if you want people to take you seriously. Because no they didn’t. When they were rebuilding and had ELCs, they were way under the cap. Oh, and that’s when MacKinnon signed his sweetheart deal. So, you’re wrong there too.

 

[Jim Bob]

No he didn’t

Fox only played one “normal” NHL season (his rookie season) that ended a bit early bit due to Covid. The he played in the Covid shortened one with the bastardized schedule before signing his extension.

Dahlin will have a season and a half of playing at a very high level when he signs this summer. Thats more than Fox had under his belt.** Plus Dahlin will have done all of that during normal NHL seasons. Fox only played against 7 NHL teams the year he won the Norris. We were one of them.

Fox signed his ELC at age 21 and did the following prior to his extension.

19-20 -> 70gms 42pts (rookie year)
20-21 -> 55gms 47pts (wins Norris)

Dahlin at the same age/year of development as Fox was in those two seasons.

21-22 -> 80gms - 53pts
22-23 -> 78gms - 73pts

Dahlin started in the NHL at 18 and I think we forget how young he still is. Fox was a rookie in his D+4 season. Dahlin already had 3 NHL seasons (197gms) under his belt before he started his D+4 season.

**I don’t think Fox winning the Norris in that bastardized Covid season will matter much in contract talks. Fox produced 30 of his 47pts (64%) that year in 24gms vs the worst 3 teams in that division (Us, Flyers and Devils). Fox really feasted on us with 12pts in 8gms (25% of his total). Dahlin got his points grinding it out over a full NHL season.

I know you have consistently tried to discount the COVID impacted seasons and consistently argue that they should not be used for any sort of player evaluation or contract projections.

But, that is not the reality that agents and GMs are operating within.

Fox winning the Norris Trophy in 2020-21 absolutely played a huge part in the 7 year $9.5M AAV extension the Rangers signed him to on 11/1/2021. He backed that up with a 5th place Norris season last year and a similar season this season.

 

[GellMann]

yes

if you take the worst part of edmontons roster, cut it off from mcdavid and draisaitl, its going to suck

pick any team that doesnt have 2 power house offensive lines

look at the roster you made you took the best part of edmontons roster and got rid of it, then took the best part of buffalos roster and got rid of it, are you surprised whats left is bad?

Well yes that's the point lol. Some teams have good defenses, bottom sixes, and goalies. My point was that before the season Edmonton looked like theirs were bottom 2-3 of the league if you did the same thing for every team and compared them

but then they went out and had a pretty good year behind mcdavid

 

[RefsIdeas]

With the talk about Levi potentially getting the starters load (45ish games) I wanted to post this. There have been 16 age 21 goalies that have played in the NHL for more than 10 games and posted a .900 or better. If we want to see if there are any comparables for 41 games or more, there are 8 total in NHL history. Betting on Levi to do this, as good as he is, would be a top 1% outcome.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

With the talk about Levi potentially getting the starters load (45ish games) I wanted to post this. There have been 16 age 21 goalies that have played in the NHL for more than 10 games and posted a .900 or better. If we want to see if there are any comparables for 41 games or more, there are 8 total in NHL history. Betting on Levi to do this, as good as he is, would be a top 1% outcome.

View attachment 690744

He turns 22 in December, curious if that marks any significant increase over age 21.

 

[Mattilaus]

With the talk about Levi potentially getting the starters load (45ish games) I wanted to post this. There have been 16 age 21 goalies that have played in the NHL for more than 10 games and posted a .900 or better. If we want to see if there are any comparables for 41 games or more, there are 8 total in NHL history. Betting on Levi to do this, as good as he is, would be a top 1% outcome.

View attachment 690744

I largely agree, It is kind of funny however that #1 is the goalie he is most often compared to.

 

[RefsIdeas]

He turns 22 in December, curious if that marks any significant increase over age 21.

Total of 58 who played 20 games or more, 24 goalies who started 41 games or more (with .900 or better). So a fair increase. I'm not sure if they use the age cut-off for their age at the beginning of the season or the age by Dec 31

 

[Dirty Dog]

With the talk about Levi potentially getting the starters load (45ish games) I wanted to post this. There have been 16 age 21 goalies that have played in the NHL for more than 10 games and posted a .900 or better. If we want to see if there are any comparables for 41 games or more, there are 8 total in NHL history. Betting on Levi to do this, as good as he is, would be a top 1% outcome.

View attachment 690744

Interesting. How many had below a .900 save percentage?

 

[Jim Bob]

He turns 22 in December, curious if that marks any significant increase over age 21.

Since 2000, there have been 17 seasons (and only 4 in the last decade) by a goalie that is 21 or 22 that have a Save% of .900 or better over 40+ GP:

PLAYER	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	GP	GAA	SV%	W	L	T	SO	TOI
Tuukka Rask	2009-2010	22​	Boston Bruins	45​	1.97​	0.931​	22​	12​	5​	5​	2562​
Matt Murray	2016-2017	22​	Pittsburgh Penguins	49​	2.41​	0.923​	32​	10​	4​	4​	2766​
Roberto Luongo	2000-2001	21​	Florida Panthers	47​	2.44​	0.92​	12​	24​	7​	5​	2628​
John Gibson	2015-2016	22​	Anaheim Ducks	40​	2.07​	0.92​	21​	13​	4​	4​	2295​
Andrei Vasilevsky	2016-2017	22​	Tampa Bay Lightning	50​	2.61​	0.917​	23​	17​	7​	2​	2831​
Roberto Luongo	2001-2002	22​	Florida Panthers	58​	2.77​	0.915​	16​	33​	4​	4​	3030​
Sergei Bobrovski	2010-2011	22​	Philadelphia Flyers	54​	2.59​	0.915​	28​	13​	8​	0​	3017​
Jonathan Quick	2008-2009	22​	Los Angeles Kings	44​	2.48​	0.914​	21​	18​	2​	4​	2495​
Michal Neuvirth	2010-2011	22​	Washington Capitals	48​	2.45​	0.914​	27​	12​	4​	4​	2689​
Carter Hart	2019-2020	21​	Philadelphia Flyers	43​	2.42​	0.914​	24​	13​	3​	1​	2356​
Carey Price	2009-2010	22​	Montréal Canadiens	41​	2.77​	0.912​	13​	20​	5​	0​	2358​
Rick DiPietro	2003-2004	22​	New York Islanders	50​	2.36​	0.911​	23​	18​	5​	5​	2844​
Ondrej Pavelec	2009-2010	22​	Atlanta Thrashers	42​	3.29​	0.906​	14​	18​	7​	2​	2317​
Marc-André Fleury	2006-2007	22​	Pittsburgh Penguins	67​	2.83​	0.906​	40​	16​	9​	5​	3905​
Carey Price	2008-2009	21​	Montréal Canadiens	52​	2.83​	0.905​	23​	16​	10​	1​	3036​
Steve Mason	2009-2010	21​	Columbus Blue Jackets	58​	3.05​	0.901​	20​	26​	9​	5​	3201​
Steve Mason	2010-2011	22​	Columbus Blue Jackets	54​	3.03​	0.901​	24​	21​	7​	3​	3027​

 

[RefsIdeas]

Interesting. How many had below a .900 save percentage?

37 that played 20 or more games age 21 season

 

[Royal Thunder]

When do we hear from Adams and Granato? Wasn’t it supposed to be yesterday

 

[joshjull]

I know you have consistently tried to discount the COVID impacted seasons and consistently argue that they should not be used for any sort of player evaluation or contract projections.

But, that is not the reality that agents and GMs are operating within.

Fox winning the Norris Trophy in 2020-21 absolutely played a huge part in the 7 year $9.5M AAV extension the Rangers signed him to on 11/1/2021. He backed that up with a 5th place Norris season last year and a similar season this season.

You were wrong about Fox being involved in multiple Norris races prior to signing his extension. Changing the subject to my opinion of that Covid season (and mischaracterizing it) doesn’t change that. You also misunderstood what I was saying about Fox winning the Norris. I’m saying it will have no impact on Dahlin’s contract. Not that it didn’t help Fox with his.

Lets look at their respective resumes from their drafting to the end of their D+5 seasons.

D+1 thru D+3

*Fox was in college
*Dahlin was in NHL…
D+1 -> 82gms 44pt/
D+2 -> 59gms 40pt (56pts pace)
D+3 -> 56gms 23pt (34pt pace/Covid schedule .

D+4 season

*Fox in NHL -> 70gms 40pts (47pt pace)(rookie season)
*Dahlin NHL -> 80gms 53pts

Dahlin was slightly better

D+5 season

*Fox ——> 55gms 47pts (70pt pace)/Covid schedule/Norris win
*Dahlin -> 78gms 73pts (77pt pace)

Dahlin was better than Fox. He produced at a slightly better pace for a full season (23 more games). Factor in the nature of the season Fox played in and Dahlin‘s year looks even better.

Fox winning the Norris that season is not going hurt Dahlin’s contract position at all. If it plays any role, it could be used as a chip by his agents in his favor. That he outproduced a Norris winner at the same age.

 

[Matt Ress]

Some big trades being discussed on the mains. I think Adams will get the best value defender for the least amount of assets. A defensive #4 shouldn't really be too expensive anyway. Who knows what happens in net.

I'd be surprised if the 1st or top 3 prospects get moved at this point. Maybe after a playoff dive next summer.

 

[TehDoak]

My plan for offseason has slowly morphed into:

f*** the Bruins

Like Bill Murray in Rushmore, I'm taking dead aim at the rich boys



Swayman? Offersheet.

UFAs. Give me Nosek (59% on faceoffs this year). Give me Clifton. Throw in Hathaway for good measure. Let's start Boston Bruins survivor support group over here.

You going to sign away Ullmark? You going to tell Taylor Hall to only accept a trade there?

The bill has come due, f***heads.

 

[dkollidas]

I've loved Tanev since he got to Vancouver (go go UDFA collegians who work out!) but there is certainly the risks there of his typical health (he's giving a team about 60-ish games) and his age. And his contract control.

I go back and forth on Markstrom. His first year in Calgary he struggled a bit, his second he was great, then this year he was a mess. And it's not like Sutter doesn't harp on structured defense so I'm leery of what a guy who likes structured defense would do in the chaos of Sabres' d-zone mayhem.

Also I doubt a guy like Tanev is waiving his trade protection to come not only to the east coast, but specifically to Buffalo.