Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Zip15]

Based on Dorion's post-season presser, we will (again) be in competition with the Sens for a goaltender and bottom-6 PKers.

 

[MOGlLNY]

shut the f*** up Dreger

 

[Zman5778]

shut the f*** up Dreger

So methinks this means that Karmanos is decidedly NOT getting the Penguins job.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Schneider was a third pairing guy who did not get a heavy dose of DZone starts. I don't know that he drew tougher assignments.

He didn’t get a lot of OZ starts either. Samuelsson is much better, you won’t find an argument from me there. I just don’t like picking one stat and saying that the analytics guys wouldn’t like somebody, there’s a boatload of context needed to apply in each situation.

 

[Chainshot]

shut the f*** up Dreger

It's been less than three years since they fired him.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

The incentive is that as all of the core guys age into their next contract, they get the value of having the space to afford one more of them. Thinking that they'll just have someone who advocates for Buffalo as hard as Dahlin does then has soak up cap just because it's there seems flawed.

Dahlin isn't getting significantly more than guys like Makar and Fox who have the hardware. This conversation is giving me flashbacks to the Eichel extension when people were cool with him being paid in 13.33% of the cap without having done things to actually be worth that. Dahlin's had growth and should remain a great player, but he's not kicking down the door better than Fox or Makar.

Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

(On a very special episode of Beyond Blue and Gold) "Ahem...Kevyn? It says here on The Internet that the fans want to see your balls" And they better be big!

forums.hfboards.com

There are numerous reasons to suggest that Dahlin will get paid more than Makar did.

 

[Jim Bob]

He didn’t get a lot of OZ starts either. Samuelsson is much better, you won’t find an argument from me there. I just don’t like picking one stat and saying that the analytics guys wouldn’t like somebody, there’s a boatload of context needed to apply in each situation.

Who is picking one stat? I was looking at a variety of stats and they all made me guess that Ventura and crew would be unlikely to be pounding the table for the guy.

 

[Jim Bob]

Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

(On a very special episode of Beyond Blue and Gold) "Ahem...Kevyn? It says here on The Internet that the fans want to see your balls" And they better be big!

forums.hfboards.com

There are numerous reasons to suggest that Dahlin will get paid more than Makar did.

Cool, now do Fox.

Fox's 7 year $9.5M per extension bought 4 UFA years.

Fox also had multiple top 5 Norris seasons (including a Norris Trophy win) when he signed his deal, whereas Dahlin will likely have one (finish TBD obv).

 

[TehDoak]

what else did they do that Dahlin didn’t? I know you know this. How old will they be when they get their next contract? How old will Dahlin be if he signs the same term as them?

what would they make if they took a 3 year bridge deal first for 6 per?

That is true for Makar. he gave up 4 years of RFA, so you are right, those aren't apple to apples comparison. Fox i believe gave up 2 or 3 because he signed his ELC later. Either way, the amount of RFA and UFA years matter.

I'd be surprised if Dahlin takes anything under 10 at this point.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Cool, now do Fox.

Fox's 7 year $9.5M per extension bought 4 UFA years.

Fox also had multiple top 5 Norris seasons (including a Norris Trophy win) when he signed his deal, whereas Dahlin will likely have one (finish TBD obv).

Many of the same points would apply here too:

- Fox kicked in 2022/23 while Dahlin would kick in 2024/25 - Dahlin's extension would be effective 2 years later & finish 3 years later

- Fox's extension bought 4 UFA years, an 8 year Dahlin extension would buy seven UFA years (after seven accrued seasons)

- Dahlin's third contract, Fox's second contract

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Rangers fans offered up Braden Schneider as a RHD possibility on the trade board. That's be an ideal fit.

I thought he was one of their untouchables. Future Norris winner, and bluest of blue chips? Wonder what happened that he is suddenly expendable given he has a number of years of team control still.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I thought he was one of their untouchables. Future Norris winner, and bluest of blue chips? Wonder what happened that he is suddenly expendable given he has a number of years of team control still.

Cap crunch, mostly.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Cap crunch, mostly.

In a cap crunch him being on an ELC for another year should make him a guy they keep.

 

[Zman5778]

I thought he was one of their untouchables. Future Norris winner, and bluest of blue chips? Wonder what happened that he is suddenly expendable given he has a number of years of team control still.

He's got Fox and Trouba CLEARLY ahead of him on the depth chart on the right side.

That said, I realistically don't see any reason for the Rangers to trade him until his ELC and his first bridge run out.

 

[Jim Bob]

Many of the same points would apply here too:

- Fox kicked in 2022/23 while Dahlin would kick in 2024/25 - Dahlin's extension would be effective 2 years later & finish 3 years later

- Fox's extension bought 4 UFA years, an 8 year Dahlin extension would buy seven UFA years (after seven accrued seasons)

- Dahlin's third contract, Fox's second contract

The contract kicking in down the road rarely inflates the salary a player gets. It is usually all about when the contract is signed. That is why teams want to lock guys up sooner rather than later.

The second vs third contract doesn't usually matter much, either.

The difference in UFA years is the big factor. And my guess is that Fox's stronger resume at the time the contracts will have been signed levels that out.

It will be really interesting to see how the Norris voting plays out. That will likely have a greater than 0% effect on the contract talks. I bet the narrative is very different if he wins versus if he finishes 2nd or 3rd and gets to go to the NHL Awards, versus if he finishes 4+ and is not a "finalist".

 

[Der Jaeger]

I thought he was one of their untouchables. Future Norris winner, and bluest of blue chips? Wonder what happened that he is suddenly expendable given he has a number of years of team control still.

As we saw with Kravtsov, even the bluest of blue chips are able to be traded.

 

[TehDoak]

Fun idea for the day:

Send two offer sheets to the Bruins:

1 year, 2M for Bussi
2 year, 4.1M per for Swayman

Total cost if they don't match either: 2nd and a 3rd

f***ing up the Bruins goaltending:

Priceless.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

The contract kicking in down the road rarely inflates the salary a player gets. It is usually all about when the contract is signed. That is why teams want to lock guys up sooner rather than later.

The second vs third contract doesn't usually matter much, either.

The difference in UFA years is the big factor. And my guess is that Fox's stronger resume at the time the contracts will have been signed levels that out.

It will be really interesting to see how the Norris voting plays out. That will likely have a greater than 0% effect on the contract talks. I bet the narrative is very different if he wins versus if he finishes 2nd or 3rd and gets to go to the NHL Awards, versus if he finishes 4+ and is not a "finalist".

Point one - if you're splitting hairs then Fox's deal was signed in 2021 while Dahlin's is (hopefully) 2023. That's two years difference. Add the extra year & it's three years duration where the cap is going to be higher, three years further away from C19.

Point two - agreed - but any effect it has will favour a higher AAV for Dahlin.

Point three - difference in UFA years is the kicker. It's not an odd extra year. It's three extra years which is huge.

RE the Norris - he's in the conversation which should be enough for Dahlin's camp. Sure - a win would undoubtedly make a difference. But to have the season he's had - for a perennial loser - at such a young age - is more impressive than he'll probably get credit for.

The other thing is - Adams absolutely can't afford to low ball him. If he does - Dahlin could just wait until next year - where he'll be worth even more money. In 20+ years of following this team... he's the best player we've had outside of Hasek. You don't jerk around with guys like this.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Who is picking one stat? I was looking at a variety of stats and they all made me guess that Ventura and crew would be unlikely to be pounding the table for the guy.

Sorry, it seemed like you filtered by xgf% and was using that to drive your argument, if that's not the case then it's all good!

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Based on Dorion's post-season presser, we will (again) be in competition with the Sens for a goaltender and bottom-6 PKers.

Would be nice if we could fill this need from within, but now sure who among our young players can fill that role.

 

[Irie]

I know Adams has said signing Dahlin is a priority, but I have heard zero interest from Dahlin to get a deal completed asap.

Am I the only one that thinks Dahlin does not sign an extension this summer, but waits until 2024 - at least until the new cap predictions are released by the league?

There is a history there of long negotiations. By all accounts, he seems to be a player who bets on himself going forward. Most agents will be advising their 2024 FA clients to wait until the league releases their 2024-25 cap estimates to start negotiations.

I'd love to see Dahlin signed to an 8 year extension this offseason, but it feels like wishful thinking on Adams' part more than the done deal attitude I am reading in this thread. Have I missed some important relevant information on this topic?

*note* this is not a pessimistic post implying he won't sign long-term in Buffalo. I think he signs an 8 year deal eventually. I just don't think it happens this offseason.

 

[MOGlLNY]

I know Adams has said signing Dahlin is a priority, but I have heard zero interest from Dahlin to get a deal completed asap.

Am I the only one that thinks Dahlin does not sign an extension this summer, but waits until 2024 - at least until the new cap predictions are released by the league?

There is a history there of long negotiations. By all accounts, he seems to be a player who bets on himself going forward. Most agents will be advising their 2024 FA clients to wait until the league releases their 2024-25 cap estimates to start negotiations.

I'd love to see Dahlin signed to an 8 year extension this offseason, but it feels like wishful thinking on Adams' part more than the done deal attitude I am reading in this thread. Have I missed some important relevant information on this topic?

*note* this is not a pessimistic post implying he won't sign long-term in Buffalo. I think he signs an 8 year deal eventually. I just don't think it happens this offseason.

Well the difference is Adams actually said he wants the extension done. You're going off reading in between the lines based on Dahlin's interview.

I'd guess that's why people are more partial to think it will get done.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

I took Dahlin's talk as more of a boilerplate "I play hockey, I'll let my agents deal with the contract stuff" response. It'll get done, but when you just completed a long year and fell just short of the playoffs, you don't really want to be discussing contracts with the media.

I expect the sides will start talking after the draft (July 1 is the 1st day they can officially sign an extension) and it will come together fairly quickly after that.

 

[SundherDome]

Fun idea for the day:

Send two offer sheets to the Bruins:

1 year, 2M for Bussi
2 year, 4.1M per for Swayman

Total cost if they don't match either: 2nd and a 3rd

f***ing up the Bruins goaltending:

Priceless.

Nope

 

[Ace]

Dahlin also joked at the start of the year when Tage got paid that he’s happy for him but he’s trying to earn his own contract now.

We can read way too much into that now if we get tired of the last thing he said.

HE’S SIGNING THE FIRST DECENT DEAL IN FRONT OF HIM! HE SAID HE WANTS HIS CONTRACT!!!!!