Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Rowley Birkin]

Player	C.H.%
Erik Karlsson	14.47​
Drew Doughty	13.84​
Zach Werenski	11.76​
Seth Jones	11.66​
Adam Fox	11.66​
Charlie McAvoy	11.66​
Darnell Nurse	11.35​
Roman Josi	11.12​
Cale Makar	11.04​
Dougie Hamilton	11.04​
Alex Pietrangelo	10.8​
Miro Heiskanen	10.37​
Mikhail Sergachev	10.3​

I won't be surprised if Dahlin gets 8 years @ $9.75M (11.68%) if he tries to get really close to market value and he does not care about the team's contract structure that was being set up with the Thompson and Cozens extensions.

If Dahlin signs the Eichel deal (8yrs @ $10M per), that would be 11.98% and set a new high water mark for a D extension in the flat cap era. That could happen. But, I do wonder if Dahlin is willing to take more of a team friendly deal as opposed to just signing for as much as he possibly can.

I also expect Power to get something like the Dahlin bridge. I doubt he is open to signing the Cozens/Thompson type deal.

Time will tell.

Are those cap hit % figures exactly what they were at the point of signing? Or the cap hit % against this season's cap?

 

[Jim Bob]

Are those cap hit % figures exactly what they were at the point of signing? Or the cap hit % against this season's cap?

It was at the time that they signed their most recent contracts.

And I was using the $83.5M expected cap for 2023-24 as the basis for the Dahlin extension projections.

 

[Chainshot]

Are those cap hit % figures exactly what they were at the point of signing? Or the cap hit % against this season's cap?

It's a bit more accurate way to find comps rather than just picking an AAV for a specific player. If someone is viewed as being equal to another and the cap went up, their % of salary would then reflect a bit higher AAV.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

It's a bit more accurate way to find comps rather than just picking an AAV for a specific player. If someone is viewed as being equal to another and the cap went up, their % of salary would then reflect a bit higher AAV.

Yes, agreed. Which is one of the reasons i think Dahlin will be worth a higher AAV than some of you guys expect. Full arguement was laid out in previous thread using Makar as nearest comp.

 

[Jim Bob]

Yes, agreed. Which is one of the reasons i think Dahlin will be worth a higher AAV than some of you guys expect. Full arguement was laid out in previous thread using Makar as nearest comp.

I do not believe I disagreed too much with his market value (in the Josi-Nurse-Werenski neighborhood). I think I am more optimistic about how open Dahlin would be to taking less than market value to try and keep the band together as long as possible like we have seen over the years from players like Marchand and Bergeron in Boston, Crosby in Pittsburgh, and other guys.

 

[Chainshot]

Yes, agreed. Which is one of the reasons i think Dahlin will be worth a higher AAV than some of you guys expect. Full arguement was laid out in previous thread using Makar as nearest comp.

"You guys"? $9.2M on 11.04% of cap hit would be fine with me. There are a few people who are talking about 10-12M AAV. I don't see many pushing for things in the 9's, we have folks speculating that it will be more which doesn't fit the salaries of most of the league's best already. There is a case to be made that Fox is more of a % of cap hit than Dahlin should get because Dahlin doesn't have the hardware. It would be great if he came in at something starting with an 8, I just don't see it happening. And nothing more than starting with a 9.

 

[Chainshot]

I wonder how many of them top this year next year?

 

[Rowley Birkin]

"You guys"? $9.2M on 11.04% of cap hit would be fine with me. There are a few people who are talking about 10-12M AAV. I don't see many pushing for things in the 9's, we have folks speculating that it will be more which doesn't fit the salaries of most of the league's best already. There is a case to be made that Fox is more of a % of cap hit than Dahlin should get because Dahlin doesn't have the hardware. It would be great if he came in at something starting with an 8, I just don't see it happening. And nothing more than starting with a 9.

I think 9.2m AAV is optimistic if we're talking about an eight year deal. The reasoning was posted recently, near the end of the last thread.

If he wants north of 10x8 i think he is justified asking for that. Now... if we're talking about him taking a home town discount - that's a different arguement.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I wonder how many of them top this year next year?

I'd guess at least 4

 

[Chainshot]

I think 9.2m AAV is optimistic if we're talking about an eight year deal. The reasoning was posted recently, near the end of the last thread.

If he wants north of 10x8 i think he is justified asking for that. Now... if we're talking about him taking a home town discount - that's a different arguement.

With how all three of the long-term deal guys have talked about keeping the team together and being in Buffalo, yeah, I think there will be some downward pressure on Dahlin's cap AAV.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

With how all three of the long-term deal guys have talked about keeping the team together and being in Buffalo, yeah, I think there will be some downward pressure on Dahlin's cap AAV.

I hope you are right.

 

[Jim Bob]

The home vs road splits were bonkers this season. I wonder if that is something that was just dumb luck or something they can fix?

 

[Dirty Dog]

I’m fine with a Stillman-Boosh bottom pairing. But we need a good #7 and better depth. The biggest thing is a very good top 4 guy to pair with Power. We should be able to roll out two elite pairings for 46-48 minutes a game.

Joker is the odd man out for me. He needs to be upgraded and he doesn’t fit on the bottom pairing. Waive Bryson to Rochester (he probably gets claims but who knows) and he can be part of the depth in the AHL

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

The home vs road splits were bonkers this season. I wonder if that is something that was just dumb luck or something they can fix?

Surprised they didn't show the opposite side of that. This is only the 3rd time in team history they've allowed more than 300 goals. The other 2 times were in the mid 80's and a couple of close calls in the late 80's/early 90's. If that doesn't motivate Adams to address the teams defensive play and goaltending, nothing will.

 

[Chainshot]

Surprised they didn't show the opposite side of that. This is only the 3rd time in team history they've allowed more than 300 goals. The other 2 times were in the mid 80's and a couple of close calls in the late 80's/early 90's. If that doesn't motivate Adams to address the teams defensive play and goaltending, nothing will.

View attachment 689875

Not only that, the team worst GA was a year when they were the worst team in the league (the Turgeon draft year), with players like Bert retiring in December because they were so bad. There weren't happy feels and such about that team at all.

 

[TehDoak]

With how all three of the long-term deal guys have talked about keeping the team together and being in Buffalo, yeah, I think there will be some downward pressure on Dahlin's cap AAV

If the team is going to keep spending 10+M under the cap, I don't think there will be any incentive for discounts.

I think Dahlin gets somewhere just above 10M. I'm going to say 8 years, 82M. There is a 'signing an 8 year deal with a team that hasn't made the playoffs since Obama was president" tax.

 

[Selanne00008]

Player	C.H.%
Erik Karlsson	14.47​
Drew Doughty	13.84​
Zach Werenski	11.76​
Seth Jones	11.66​
Adam Fox	11.66​
Charlie McAvoy	11.66​
Darnell Nurse	11.35​
Roman Josi	11.12​
Cale Makar	11.04​
Dougie Hamilton	11.04​
Alex Pietrangelo	10.8​
Miro Heiskanen	10.37​
Mikhail Sergachev	10.3​

I won't be surprised if Dahlin gets 8 years @ $9.75M (11.68%) if he tries to get really close to market value and he does not care about the team's contract structure that was being set up with the Thompson and Cozens extensions.

lol @ Nurse

 

[Chainshot]

If the team is going to keep spending 10+M under the cap, I don't think there will be any incentive for discounts.

I think Dahlin gets somewhere just above 10M. I'm going to say 8 years, 82M. There is a 'signing an 8 year deal with a team that hasn't made the playoffs since Obama was president" tax.

The incentive is that as all of the core guys age into their next contract, they get the value of having the space to afford one more of them. Thinking that they'll just have someone who advocates for Buffalo as hard as Dahlin does then has soak up cap just because it's there seems flawed.

Dahlin isn't getting significantly more than guys like Makar and Fox who have the hardware. This conversation is giving me flashbacks to the Eichel extension when people were cool with him being paid in 13.33% of the cap without having done things to actually be worth that. Dahlin's had growth and should remain a great player, but he's not kicking down the door better than Fox or Makar.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Below $13M max for 3 yrs.

I think Buffalo looks st the trade market to acquire players from cap strapped teams to avoid longer term contracts.

So it would be "bat shit crazy" according to you, to pay Compher 4.75 mil AAV, but you say up to 4.33 AAV is ok? We just got done paying Olofsson 4.75 mil for two seasons to score goals and be such a black hole everywhere else on the ice as to be a net negative despite his scoring.

Compher has been a consistently solid player in all zones, a net positive for their team, and would be a massive improvement over Olofsson. He just turned 28 and bumped his stats after being moved up the line-up. He's going to be in his prime for the next 3-4 years, and would give Buffalo one of, if not the best, two-way checking lines in the NHL with Greenway and Mittelstadt.

I'm not saying KA has to go out and sign Compher as a priority or anything, but my initial comment came about as a way the roster could improve without adding cap. Compher vs Olofsson at the same cap hit is a 100% knockout win for Compher. Only Victor's parents and g/f vote for him. For some reason in this hypothetical, you chose to debate that Compher isn't worth Olofsson's cap hit. That's absurd. Pick a different battle and go on low-balling every trade target's value around the league, but at least get a touch closer to reality.

 

[TehDoak]

The incentive is that as all of the core guys age into their next contract, they get the value of having the space to afford one more of them. Thinking that they'll just have someone who advocates for Buffalo as hard as Dahlin does then has soak up cap just because it's there seems flawed.

A 750k difference on a 80M+ cap is very easy to work around.

Dahlin isn't getting significantly more than guys like Makar and Fox who have the hardware. This conversation is giving me flashbacks to the Eichel extension when people were cool with him being paid in 13.33% of the cap without having done things to actually be worth that. Dahlin's had growth and should remain a great player, but he's not kicking down the door better than Fox or Makar.

Fox's team spends to the cap and makes the playoffs every year
Makar's team spends to the cap and makes the playoffs every year.

Either would get Karlsson level money on the open market.

They took a team friendly deal.

Dahlin's agent will certainly point these things out.

The whole "team friendly" deal goes out the door when the team is 17M under the cap.

While I think its a conversation between his camp and ownership. if they want him on an 8 year deal and they want him to sign this summer AND they want him to take a Makar or Fox deal....then he better get assurances that this team will be spending to the cap every year. I think Dahlin will have no issue taking a team friendly deal. What I do think he will have an issue doing is taking a team friendly deal when the extra cap space he isn't taking up isn't being spent. On the open market he'd easily get 10-11 with his age and productivity.

 

[Zman5778]

The whole "team friendly" deal goes out the door when the team is 17M under the cap.

Tell that to Tage and Cozens, who very very clearly took team-friendly deals.

 

[Djp]

So it would be "bat shit crazy" according to you, to pay Compher 4.75 mil AAV, but you say up to 4.33 AAV is ok? We just got done paying Olofsson 4.75 mil for two seasons to score goals and be such a black hole everywhere else on the ice as to be a net negative despite his scoring.

Compher has been a consistently solid player in all zones, a net positive for their team, and would be a massive improvement over Olofsson. He just turned 28 and bumped his stats after being moved up the line-up. He's going to be in his prime for the next 3-4 years, and would give Buffalo one of, if not the best, two-way checking lines in the NHL with Greenway and Mittelstadt.

I'm not saying KA has to go out and sign Compher as a priority or anything, but my initial comment came about as a way the roster could improve without adding cap. Compher vs Olofsson at the same cap hit is a 100% knockout win for Compher. Only Victor's parents and g/f vote for him. For some reason in this hypothetical, you chose to debate that Compher isn't worth Olofsson's cap hit. That's absurd. Pick a different battle and go on low-balling every trade target's value around the league, but at least get a touch closer to reality.

Except he isn’t that defensive sound As you proclaim.

 

[sabresfan129103]

I just don't know where this top 4 guy who is supposed to be Power's partner is coming from. Top 4 defenders seem to be more coveted now than ever. Teams just do not give these guys up.

 

[Chainshot]

A 750k difference on a 80M+ cap is very easy to work around.



Fox's team spends to the cap and makes the playoffs every year
Makar's team spends to the cap and makes the playoffs every year.

Either would get Karlsson level money on the open market.

But this isn't the open market, nor were they close to being UFA when either Fox or Makar signed those deals. Bringing up the possibility of what a UFA only value could be in an open market ignores the circumstances that this is not the case - Dahlin's RFA and of a similar age to Makar when Makar signed his deal. Makar also signed his deal while MacKinnon's value deal was still in place and yet coming off a pile of hardware, he didn't soak the Avs for additional money.

They took a team friendly deal.

Dahlin's agent will certainly point these things out.

The whole "team friendly" deal goes out the door when the team is 17M under the cap.

Looking at Thompson, Cozens and Samuelsson signing extensions, talking about wanting to stay in Buffalo and then coming up with something that seems more like your opinion on free cap space - the months and months of you posting about your disagreement with how they spend and what their doing - intruding to the point of overlooking what those three have already said and done.

While I think its a conversation between his camp and ownership. if they want him on an 8 year deal and they want him to sign this summer AND they want him to take a Makar or Fox deal....then he better get assurances that this team will be spending to the cap every year. I think Dahlin will have no issue taking a team friendly deal. What I do think he will have an issue doing is taking a team friendly deal when the extra cap space he isn't taking up isn't being spent. On the open market he'd easily get 10-11 with his age and productivity.

This post and the previous one seems like projecting your desire for how they spend into how these negotiations will go.

 

[Chainshot]

I just don't know where this top 4 guy who is supposed to be Power's partner is coming from. Top 4 defenders seem to be more coveted now than ever. Teams just do not give these guys up.

It's the reason for the pickers thread - teams with them often get them from unlikely sources or the player grows into the role. Siegenthaler is sort of my benchmark (a conditional 3rd)- find a guy with upside who is not yet well-known. Same with the Toews deal to the Avs - 2 2nds. Hell, the Panthers manage by snapping up waiver bait and have hit on Forsling, Mahura off the wire (and Montour for just a 3rd). Marino went for a tweener type prospect offenseman in Ty Smith. Even deeper - guys like Jacob Middleton and Kyle Clifton started off as AHL-level UDFAs who developed up into what they are now. Marino himself was a mid-round pick who was walking away from his drafting team and his negotiating rights went for a draft pick to get to Pittsburgh.

People see Calgary possibly reshuffling and went asking after Andersson who is an established #1 whose offensive game isn't going to beget PP time over Dahlin in Buffalo. It's looking for someone who might be squeezed out of opportunity or out due to cap reasons. This isn't walking into asking for an established #1 guy, it's leveraging to get someone who has utility and use out of other team's constraints.