Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Chainshot]

Agree. I’m slowly talking my way to Olofsson for Rutta. Rutta’s metrics weren’t great but he’s been good for a while riding shotgun for good partners.

I just don't see teams that value 2-way play or speed games on their wing being in line for Vic's services. Teams that are in full tank mode seem like better destinations for the season, where if he plays well in offensive minutes, that team then can flip him for futures at the deadline as playoff contenders look to augment late season depth. That narrows things to San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago, and perhaps Columbus.

Looking at another team that might need a bump on the PP or with an offensive winger, I come back to the Jets though that involves a lot dust settling around what they're doing with some of their returning scorers so not the immediacy of shuffling in a new guy just because.

 

[Matt Ress]

Perhaps it's that Norris scored 35 in the year prior - that's a lot of goals to rip out of most lineups and Cozens was the closest this year if we're looking at impact.

I understand that. But as a Sabre fan I know all too well that you're not that good until you're that good. We had a higher scoring top 6 than the Sens this past year. Will theirs be better next year? That's probably the more important question considering neither made the playoffs lol

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Agree. I’m slowly talking my way to Olofsson for Rutta. Rutta’s metrics weren’t great but he’s been good for a while riding shotgun for good partners.

I’m on board with this, as I was pushing for him last summer. It was really lonely on Rutta Island

 

[Gras]

Quinn and JPP should make Cozen size leaps for the '23-'24 season

Quinn is probably ~ 50 points and 25 goals next year, JJP probably 40 Points.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I just don't see teams that value 2-way play or speed games on their wing being in line for Vic's services. Teams that are in full tank mode seem like better destinations for the season, where if he plays well in offensive minutes, that team then can flip him for futures at the deadline as playoff contenders look to augment late season depth. That narrows things to San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago, and perhaps Columbus.

Looking at another team that might need a bump on the PP or with an offensive winger, I come back to the Jets though that involves a lot dust settling around what they're doing with some of their returning scorers so not the immediacy of shuffling in a new guy just because.

The one year rental for Olofsson probably limits return from teams who are rebuilding. Eg: if I were Anaheim, I’m not giving up anything.

A team like the Pens, who are in last run mode, are likely to trade for a rental like Olofsson at the TDL. Jets might be in this category too.

Rutta was a healthy scratch at times, so it’s not as if he was a big part of their line up. It’s just a pre-TDL TDL deal.

 

[Fjordy]

Olofsson needs a team where there is a terrible PP and almost no shooters, as well as a line where other players can cover him in defense, it will not be easy, but there are probably 2-3 such teams in the league.

 

[Chainshot]

The one year rental for Olofsson probably limits return from teams who are rebuilding. Eg: if I were Anaheim, I’m not giving up anything.

A team like the Pens, who are in last run mode, are likely to trade for a rental like Olofsson at the TDL. Jets might be in this category too.

Rutta was a healthy scratch at times, so it’s not as if he was a big part of their line up. It’s just a pre-TDL TDL deal.

I'm not really concerned about return for Olofsson, just in opening up his roster spot.

 

[TommyDangles]

We aren’t 1-2 players away from contention. We are 3-4 players away from being a consistent playoff team. My point was that plenty of teams have won with a young core, their team simply was aggressive.

And for the record, we are likely well behind the sens once their roster is healthy. Only reason we finished ahead of them this year was their lost key pieces due to injury.

We can make upgrades. I don't disagree.

Being bold is just dumb. We don't have to be aggressive. Make smart signings and trades. Don't have to throw around our top prospects or picks for some flashy move.

"Only reason we finished ahead of them this year was their lost key pieces due to injury." I mean they traded for injury prone players. That's part of the gamble. We also had our fair share of injuries.

 

[TommyDangles]

I’ve come to a point where I don’t even think you know what being bold is. You just know you’re right and you’ll keep moving the goalposts wherever you need to keep that illusion alive. Like if I said Tampa Bay traded a 3oa pick, or if I said Boston traded a 2oa pick, or when Tampa traded the reigning GAA leader and first vezina finalist, maybe the kings trading a 5oa pick, you’d come back with… maybe they aren’t high enough upside when traded?

Btw that’s what I meant by think it through, instead of coming back with lol late first doesn’t count (which wtf? Trading Kulich wouldn’t be bold because he was drafted at 28?) maybe think through who I might have been referring to (or you know that Kulich was taken at a pick that you don’t consider bold, which that really seems like a miss since he’s basically the player this started with).

"you’ll keep moving the goalposts wherever you need to keep that illusion alive. "

We were talking about making aggressive bold moves and you switched it to just making any moves. That's you moving the goalposts. Nobody is talking about not doing anything. You're just flip flopping like crazy.

"instead of coming back with lol late first doesn’t count (which wtf? Trading Kulich wouldn’t be bold because he was drafted at 28?) "

Bro are you serious lmao? You realize there is a difference between a playoff team trading their late 1st & an already drafted prospect that has played great post DY? Trading a 2nd round pick isn't bold. Trading JJ Peterka is bold. Like it's not that hard to understand. Huge difference in value.

"(or you know that Kulich was taken at a pick that you don’t consider bold, which that really seems like a miss since he’s basically the player this started with"

Is trading a 7th round pick bold because Devon Levi was a 7th? Holy cow.

 

[Irie]

And for the record, we are likely well behind the sens once their roster is healthy. Only reason we finished ahead of them this year was their lost key pieces due to injury.

With gains from the young guys, who should be better all around players, even if the point totals don't jump up, this team should continue to make solid progress.

We can't pretend that losing Samuelsson for an extended period was also not also a very key injury. He missed over a quarter of the season and the team paced for 103 points with him in the lineup and for 56 points when he was out.

Ottawa has a lot of roster questions themselves. A lot of their energy and depth are FAs, their D has some holes and depth issues, their top four has injury history issues, and their goaltending has question marks.

I honestly believe that if the Sabres can find a way to coach their PK up to an 80% level, they do not finish behind Ottawa.

 

[Irie]

It's all academic for now, I just would guess that Ottawa is going to aggressive again and Buffalo will be passive again based on the comments from the respective front offices. But that is just a guess.

It feels like you do not really really think about where teams are in terms of their overall outlook.

The Sens have Giroux turning 36. Zub ill be 29. Chabot will be 28. Their current starting goalie is 31.

Even a lot of their young core is 4 or 5 years older than their Sabres counterparts.

The idea of the Sabres losing critical opportunities and throwing away their window if they aren't aggressive now angle is a bit disingenuous.

 

[Djp]

Gonna be honest man I scroll right by your trade related posts because of how cheap you are in them. Doing the same here

people on here complained numerous time about the Tim Murray trades made for ROR, Kane, and Lehner And how he blew the prospect pool.

yet the same people on here want to do that again

I just need someone to explain to me how being 3-4 players away is a reason to never acquire the first player

you don’t trade for 1-2 yr rentals Or players on the downside of their careers.

I just don't see teams that value 2-way play or speed games on their wing being in line for Vic's services. Teams that are in full tank mode seem like better destinations for the season, where if he plays well in offensive minutes, that team then can flip him for futures at the deadline as playoff contenders look to augment late season depth. That narrows things to San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago, and perhaps Columbus.

Looking at another team that might need a bump on the PP or with an offensive winger, I come back to the Jets though that involves a lot dust settling around what they're doing with some of their returning scorers so not the immediacy of shuffling in a new guy just because.

im sure there are 5+ teams who made or want to make the playoffs and the PP in season was bad or it went ice cold in the playoffs.

 

[Ace]

you don’t trade for 1-2 yr rentals Or players on the downside of their careers.

Where was this suggested?

 

[MOGlLNY]

people on here complained numerous time about the Tim Murray trades made for ROR, Kane, and Lehner And how he blew the prospect pool.

yet the same people on here want to do that again

yep, that's absolutely what everyone is saying. nailing it, as usual.

 

[Irie]

I do. Whoever the new GM that comes in is going to have to add in to a pretty set group that needs better support.

Pens have most of their top 6 set, but Zucker is leaving. The Mike Sullivan top 6 winger MO is smaller and fast, and can score.

Pens have 4 RHD that can play in the NHL (Petry, Letang, Rutta, and Ruhwedel).

The new GM has around $20M in cap space to make so big moves to support the Pens big 3 on what’s likely their last run. Moving an excess D for a winger like Olofsson makes sense in that light.

Petry might not be the right target. Rutta might be the right guy. He was bad in Pittsburgh last year, but he’s not that old and had some good years in Tampa riding shotgun with Sergachev and Hedman.

I’d take either for Olofsson at 50%. I’d think the new GM for the Pens would think about Petry and pull the trigger on Rutta.

Speaking of the Penguins D, what about Pettersson as a slightly overpaid target? Any word on if Dumoulin is coming back? I understand that Dumoulin had a down year, but there is history there with him and Letang and he anchors their PK, so if the Pens re-sign him or bring in any UFA D help, I feel like Pettersson could be the cap casualty as they could go with a Petry-POJ pairing.

 

[Fjordy]

Many prospects are good, but look at LA. Where are all their prospects now? Their pool of prospects was recently number one in the league and nearly all of those prospects have been in the AHL too long and locked up. I don't think they have developed very well. I hope Adams doesn't make the same mistake.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Many prospects are good, but look at LA. Where are all their prospects now? Their pool of prospects was recently number one in the league and nearly all of those prospects have been in the AHL too long and locked up. I don't think they have developed very well. I hope Adams doesn't make the same mistake.

This. Next step out is out of these kids is they need to identify who they think will adapt at the NHL level and who won’t. Because not everyone is gonna hit.

Not saying to hit fast forward on this process but it’s time to start making moves to fix holes we see. Doesn’t have to be overpayments or blockbusters, but need to make an active effort to improve.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Thank you Kyle for letting us keep Jason!

 

[Ace]

yep, that's absolutely what everyone is saying. nailing it, as usual.

My favorite is when someone says the Sabres should look into acquiring the top 4 D they need in trade and they’re met repeatedly with ”OMG YOU DONT TRADE KULICH FOR A ONE YEAR RENTAL WHO IS 47 YEARS OLD”. As if that was someone suggested or the only option.

Pretending our young player and prospect setup is the same as what Murray dealt away from is a close second though.

 

[Chainshot]

Many prospects are good, but look at LA. Where are all their prospects now? Their pool of prospects was recently number one in the league and nearly all of those prospects have been in the AHL too long and locked up. I don't think they have developed very well. I hope Adams doesn't make the same mistake.

Eh, some of their guys just haven't taken the step while at the same time, Blake has pushed players into the NHL lineup above those prospects. Byfield didn't elevate his game but Kaliyev was pushed down with the acquisition of Fiala. Much of the rest of their prospect depth are all the same position (Clark, Spence, Grans) and some have had injury issues (Turcotte).

 

[TehDoak]

With gains from the young guys, who should be better all around players, even if the point totals don't jump up, this team should continue to make solid progress.

We can't pretend that losing Samuelsson for an extended period was also not also a very key injury. He missed over a quarter of the season and the team paced for 103 points with him in the lineup and for 56 points when he was out.

We objectively were very fortunate with injuries, by every available metric.

2022/23 team injury stacks

Notes There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' ...

nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com

The fact that losing a single top 4 d-man caused the team to tail spin says more about the failure of the front office in team construction than the intricate value of that player.

Ottawa has a lot of roster questions themselves. A lot of their energy and depth are FAs, their D has some holes and depth issues, their top four has injury history issues, and their goaltending has question marks.

Sure. But we have issues too. We will see how things land once the puck drops.

I honestly believe that if the Sabres can find a way to coach their PK up to an 80% level, they do not finish behind Ottawa.

If they could simply coach them better into a better PK, why didn't they do that last year? Or the year before that? There has to be a coaching change or personnel change. Bringing back the same people and same coaches and expecting better results doesn't make a ton of sense.

 

[Irie]

We objectively were very fortunate with injuries, by every available metric.

2022/23 team injury stacks

Notes There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' ...

nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com

Having 5 of your top 6 D out or playing hurt for a stretch can be a season killing event.

To say they were nothing but lucky ignores reality.

 

[TehDoak]

people on here complained numerous time about the Tim Murray trades made for ROR, Kane, and Lehner And how he blew the prospect pool.

You realize that those trades weren't the issue, right?

It was the McNabb and 2x 2nds for Fasching and Delaurier

It was burning a 3rd for the rights to Vesey

A 2nd for Gorges

Murray's issue was he constructed a terrible defense. And when he did finally go out and get a better d-man, he was injured before the season started.

A 24 year old starting goalie with a stellar AHL record in need of a change of scenary for a late 1st? Sign me up.

A Selke worthy 25 year old center for two busting former 1st rounders, an earlier 2nd round pick, and a B level prospect? Giddy up.

The Kane deal was so massive it'd be hard to quantify.

yet the same people on here want to do that again


you don’t trade for 1-2 yr rentals

1-2 year rentals? Seasons matter. Winning matters. Getting a full season isn't a rental. I'd much rather get a full year of an established players that you know what you'll get versus getting a 20 year old you might never be a NHL player. Or a 23 year old who you'll sign to a 7 year deal and want to buyout 2 years in.

Or players on the downside of their careers.

Aging curves matter, sure. By your list of bullet points, we can't get any players signed beyond the age of 27 but they have to be signed for more than 2 years.

 

[thewookie1]

My proposals are easy and fair

Jokiharju and a 24’ 2nd for Tanev and a 24’ 6th


24’ 4th that can become a 24’ 3rd (if he plays 50 games) and a 23’ 6th for Martinez

Olofsson(50%) to Carolina for a 24’ 3rd that becomes a 24’ 2nd if he scores 20+ next year.


A defense of

Muel-Dahlin
Power-Tanev
Martinez-Bush
Stillman

If Tanev stays healthy-ish and still looks good extend him 2x5mil

Martinez is too old to extend but would be a solid vet with oodles of playoff experience and the ability to fill in on all 3 pairs in a pinch.

 

[TehDoak]

Having 5 of your top 6 D out or playing hurt for a stretch can be a season killing event.

To say they were nothing but lucky ignores reality.

a stretch? What? How many games did we miss 2 of Power/Dahlin/Samuelsson? Maybe 3? 4?

82 game season. Every. Single. Team. has injuries all season, including cluster injuries like we had. "when conditions are ideal, we are a playoff team" is such a cop out. No team is a 100% healthy. You have to build depth to withstand some injuries. Our front office didn't. That's a managerial failure, not us getting unlucky with injuries. By every available metric, we were one of the healthiest teams in the league. The idea that our meager amount of injuries was the reason we missed the playoffs is laughable. The only reason we were close to a playoff spot was because we didn't have any major long term injuries the entire season.