Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Irie]

a stretch? What? How many games did we miss 2 of Power/Dahlin/Samuelsson? Maybe 3? 4?

82 game season. Every. Single. Team. has injuries all season, including cluster injuries like we had. "when conditions are ideal, we are a playoff team" is such a cop out. No team is a 100% healthy. You have to build depth to withstand some injuries. Our front office didn't. That's a managerial failure, not us getting unlucky with injuries. By every available metric, we were one of the healthiest teams in the league. The idea that our meager amount of injuries was the reason we missed the playoffs is laughable. The only reason we were close to a playoff spot was because we didn't have any major long term injuries the entire season.

You are once again being disingenuous. The #5 and #6 D were both out while two top four D were also out and another top four D was playing injured. Lyubushkin came back and played while so injured he was unable to practice because the D injuries were so bad, and he was terrible while hurt. The team had their 7th, 8th, and 9th Depth D in the same games for half a month and they had their 10th D playing a game in there as well.

stats without context are meaningless.

 

[TehDoak]

You are once again being disingenuous. The #5 and #6 D were both out while two top four D were also out and another top four D was playing injured. Lyubushkin came back and played while so injured he was unable to practice because the D injuries were so bad, and he was terrible while hurt. The team had their 7th, 8th, and 9th Depth D in the same games for half a month and they had their 10th D playing a game in there as well.

stats without context are meaningless.

But you are ignoring the other 75 games where we had almost zero issues.

Every team has stretches like we had or worse. And the stretches we did have were made worse by management failing to reinforce the blue line last summer.

 

[Ace]

when I see that we are great with 3 good D and abysmal with 2 good D…all I think is get a 4th good D. Weird how that can be twisted any other way in someone’s mind.

 

[Irie]

But you are ignoring the other 75 games where we had almost zero issues.

Every team has stretches like we had or worse. And the stretches we did have were made worse by management failing to reinforce the blue line last summer.

A cup champion like that avalanche can overcome heavy losses due to those kinds of massive amount of injuries all at the same time. A bubble team can not - but the sabres almost did.

If you take out the games where the team's top 4 or 5 defensemen were either out or playing hurt at the same time, this team prorates as a 100pt team.

There is nothing NORMAL about ever having to ice your 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th depth D in the same games for a continued stretch. It is super uncommon.

 

[Gras]

So was looking at the Canucks and they need some cap relief, so maybe something around Demko and UPL and we take Pearson or Poolman if it looks like one of them will be sitting on LTIR next year, save them around 7mil in cap depending on the deal, 3 yrs of Demko perfect bridge for Levi.

 

[SECRET SQUIRREL]

So was looking at the Canucks and they need some cap relief, so maybe something around Demko and UPL and we take Pearson or Poolman if it looks like one of them will be sitting on LTIR next year, save them around 7mil in cap depending on the deal, 3 yrs of Demko perfect bridge for Levi.

#11
Myers
Hoglander

#13
Olofsson (50%)
Bryson

 

[Sabres]

#11
Myers
Hoglander

#13
Olofsson (50%)
Bryson

Idk if the Canucks would do that but anything that can help us move up the draft board to get Michkov I’m all in. Every little move up counts.

 

[Fjordy]

Eh, some of their guys just haven't taken the step while at the same time, Blake has pushed players into the NHL lineup above those prospects. Byfield didn't elevate his game but Kaliyev was pushed down with the acquisition of Fiala. Much of the rest of their prospect depth are all the same position (Clark, Spence, Grans) and some have had injury issues (Turcotte).

I'm talking about this. Spence can't develop and play in the NHL because LA has too many RDs, but he's already outgrown the AHL. The same will happen with Grans. Kupari showed little. JAD, Akil Thomas, Madden, Fagemo. Bjornfot rides between NHL and AHL.

 

[SECRET SQUIRREL]

Idk if the Canucks would do that but anything that can help us move up the draft board to get Michkov I’m all in. Every little move up counts.

Yeah, I don't know why I added a bunch of extra crap in there...

#11 + Myers for #13.

 

[elchud]

Yeah, I don't know why I added a bunch of extra crap in there...

#11 + Myers for #13.

I wonder if we are on his no trade list.

Myers would be the perfect buy out candidate for us, because the pain is just the 1 season a season where we wont be pushing the cap. 5.333 million this season, .333 the next. 5 million in 23/24 cap is worth more than moving from 13th to 11th, but if the right player is there...

 

[Fjordy]

I wonder who is worse than Petry or Myers. Pens fans on CapFriendly usually sell Petry very cheaply or even pay extra.

 

[Chainshot]

I wonder who is worse than Petry or Myers. Pens fans on CapFriendly usually sell Petry very cheaply or even pay extra.

Easily Myers.

 

[Chainshot]

So was looking at the Canucks and they need some cap relief, so maybe something around Demko and UPL and we take Pearson or Poolman if it looks like one of them will be sitting on LTIR next year, save them around 7mil in cap depending on the deal, 3 yrs of Demko perfect bridge for Levi.

There is talk that they will flip 11 for 19 and send Boeser to Chicago as part of it.

 

[Fjordy]

There is talk that they will flip 11 for 19 and send Boeser to Chicago as part of it.

Then I think Chicago will take some forward at 11.

 

[Chainshot]

Then I think Chicago will take some forward at 11.

Yeah, that was the reporting about it.

 

[BFLO]

This one of those posts that made me stop caring about the research I put into my posts. There’s no facts, no stats, nothing reasonable is argued, poster than says you’re the unreasonable one if you disagree with their genius position and backs it up by making the most unreasonable claims possible about the opposing opinion.

This is a political ad for party line voters not a forum post.

Just fighting fire with fire. If you go back and look at the posts that started this conversation, I'm the one who posted stats and did research. Not the poster I was responding to.

No I don’t and didn’t argue that he was. I’ve been describing how he was USED. Which was as a top 4 all situations dman. Whether either of us feel he should have been doesn‘t change that fact that he was.

That usage is why he's not a comparable to Foote. Who was used as a 6/7 dman. The charts you posted are comparing apples to oranges. This should be fairly obvious.

I’ve been arguing for some time that Joker was in over his head and any evaluation has to take this into account. You acknowledge it but don’t really incorporate it into your evaluation.


Where he’s used by any team would hinge on the make up of their defense. He currently doesn‘t fit in our top 4 because we have two far superior transition/offensive players ahead of him.

You're not suggesting that the charts you posted are evidence he’s a 6/7 dman?

No idea why you think the 18gm losing streak matters.

I'm aware how Joki was used.

Are you aware that this conversation is about a hypothetical scenario in which the Sabres spent their cap on actual, bonafide middle of the lineup players, instead of overpaying the guys on the fringes?

In this hypothetical the Sabres could have still spent to the cap floor, since they weren't overpaying ~6 guys by about an average of ~1mil each. It frees up about $6mil in cap that needs to be spent. Could have afforded a nice top 4 dman for $6milaav.

So in this hypothetical world where Joker got comparable ice time to Foote, because there were actual NHL players ahead of him on the roster. How much do think he'd be getting paid?

 

[BFLO]

A cup champion like that avalanche can overcome heavy losses due to those kinds of massive amount of injuries all at the same time. A bubble team can not - but the sabres almost did.

If you take out the games where the team's top 4 or 5 defensemen were either out or playing hurt at the same time, this team prorates as a 100pt team.

There is nothing NORMAL about ever having to ice your 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th depth D in the same games for a continued stretch. It is super uncommon.

There's also nothing normal about choosing to sit on $25 million in cap space when the roster is otherwise ready to compete for the playoffs, aside from the gaping holes the cap space could have filled.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

"you’ll keep moving the goalposts wherever you need to keep that illusion alive. "

We were talking about making aggressive bold moves and you switched it to just making any moves. That's you moving the goalposts. Nobody is talking about not doing anything. You're just flip flopping like crazy.

"instead of coming back with lol late first doesn’t count (which wtf? Trading Kulich wouldn’t be bold because he was drafted at 28?) "

Bro are you serious lmao? You realize there is a difference between a playoff team trading their late 1st & an already drafted prospect that has played great post DY? Trading a 2nd round pick isn't bold. Trading JJ Peterka is bold. Like it's not that hard to understand. Huge difference in value.

"(or you know that Kulich was taken at a pick that you don’t consider bold, which that really seems like a miss since he’s basically the player this started with"

Is trading a 7th round pick bold because Devon Levi was a 7th? Holy cow.

Do those goal posts have a back up alarm, I think that’s part of code.

 

[TehDoak]

A cup champion like that avalanche can overcome heavy losses due to those kinds of massive amount of injuries all at the same time. A bubble team can not - but the sabres almost did.

If you take out the games where the team's top 4 or 5 defensemen were either out or playing hurt at the same time, this team prorates as a 100pt team.

There is nothing NORMAL about ever having to ice your 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th depth D in the same games for a continued stretch. It is super uncommon.

Sure, it's not normal....but it was for less than 10% of our season. Every team has injury issues at some point.

It's so weird that people are focusing on an 7-8 game stretch of cluster injuries that f***ed up our blue line and not the 70+ games where 90% of our roster, including most key contributors, was healthy.

Part of the reason we were even close to the playoffs is we had good injury luck for the vast majority of the season. That isn't me poo pooing what the team accomplished....that is verifiable fact. Yes, for a couple of games, we had a shitty run of injury luck. And if that didn't happen, we would have had a few more points. And if that did happen, we'd probably set a record for the least amount of man games lost in a season.

The flip side of that is...if we had an average run of injuries over the course of a season....we're probably closer to .500 rather than the playoffs.

You can't sit here and say "well, you know, if it weren't for injuries...' when nearly every team around us got hit harder. Pittsburgh, Washington, Ottawa, Detroit, and Florida all had bigger injury impacts than we had over the course of the season.

We were fortunate with injuries when you look at the scope of the entire season, especially when compared to teams that we were chasing or finished in the area around us. Whether that is in pure man games lost or a weighted list either by cap space, WAR, or minutes played. We rank near the bottom in terms of impacts due to injury.

 

[Matt Ress]

Sure, it's not normal....but it was for less than 10% of our season. Every team has injury issues at some point.

It's so weird that people are focusing on an 7-8 game stretch of cluster injuries that f***ed up our blue line and not the 70+ games where 90% of our roster, including most key contributors, was healthy.

Part of the reason we were even close to the playoffs is we had good injury luck for the vast majority of the season. That isn't me poo pooing what the team accomplished....that is verifiable fact. Yes, for a couple of games, we had a shitty run of injury luck. And if that didn't happen, we would have had a few more points. And if that did happen, we'd probably set a record for the least amount of man games lost in a season.

The flip side of that is...if we had an average run of injuries over the course of a season....we're probably closer to .500 rather than the playoffs.

You can't sit here and say "well, you know, if it weren't for injuries...' when nearly every team around us got hit harder. Pittsburgh, Washington, Ottawa, Detroit, and Florida all had bigger injury impacts than we had over the course of the season.

We were fortunate with injuries when you look at the scope of the entire season, especially when compared to teams that we were chasing or finished in the area around us. Whether that is in pure man games lost or a weighted list either by cap space, WAR, or minutes played. We rank near the bottom in terms of impacts due to injury.

We definitely lacked depth last year. We iced a pretty good forward group but on defense, we hardly iced a full group when healthy. There were 7/8/9s but if your top 6 is already lacking and an injury occurs, that's 2 or more below-replacement-level guys in the lineup.

We mostly knew this going into the season. We also knew Adams wanted to highlight specific holes in the lineup in that he wanted to know decisively what needed to be added and how kids would adapt. We'll see more significant movement this offseason.

 

[Irie]

There's also nothing normal about choosing to sit on $25 million in cap space when the roster is otherwise ready to compete for the playoffs, aside from the gaping holes the cap space could have filled.

We are talking about the effect of having five of a team's top six D out or playing injured at the same time, and the effects that would have on any team. This discussion was not really about cap issues since there is the waiver wire preventing teams from stowing NHL dept away in the minors.

Unless you think they could have spent more cap to get more durable heavy duty injury proof D or something.... If that is the case, I am open to hearing your theory

 

[Zman5778]

There's also nothing normal about choosing to sit on $25 million in cap space when the roster is otherwise ready to compete for the playoffs, aside from the gaping holes the cap space could have filled.

I understand you may have the remarkable gift of foresight. However, do remember that going into the season, KA and DG were stressing to everyone in the fanbase that last year was a developmental and assessment year. It was never supposed to be a year that we were THAT close to making the playoffs.

We were never going to give Power a permanent partner until they knew what they had in Jokiharju. KA knew his goalies were rough going into the year, so he tried to upgrade there (Murray turned us down and there's ample evidence he went after a bigger name UFA but didn't get one and I'm guessing term was why) while at the same time knowing Levi was coming.

"But the trade deadline!!!" Sorry, merely breaking the drought to get whooped on by the Bruins was never going to be worth trading what was necessary to get us there. I'm talking our 1st rounder to get a top 4 D (like Gavrikov) OR trading one of Kulich/Savoie to get Chychrun (again, remember Armstrong basically wouldn't even talk to us unless one of those two were on the table).

Let's see what happens this offseason. KA knows we need defensive help....that much is clear. What's less clear is his plan in net.

 

[joshjull]

Just fighting fire with fire. If you go back and look at the posts that started this conversation, I'm the one who posted stats and did research. Not the poster I was responding to.

I'm aware how Joki was used.

Are you aware that this conversation is about a hypothetical scenario in which the Sabres spent their cap on actual, bonafide middle of the lineup players, instead of overpaying the guys on the fringes?

In this hypothetical the Sabres could have still spent to the cap floor, since they weren't overpaying ~6 guys by about an average of ~1mil each. It frees up about $6mil in cap that needs to be spent. Could have afforded a nice top 4 dman for $6milaav.

Ah yes, that hypothetical. They were never adding those types of vets for reasons that should be well known by now.

No point bringing up the money. Not unless you’re one of those paranoids worried about Pegula restricting the budget But I do love the silly little twist that all those better guys would have been added on good value deals. Unlike the “overpaid” depth we had.

So in this hypothetical world where Joker got comparable ice time to Foote, because there were actual NHL players ahead of him on the roster. How much do think he'd be getting paid?

There is no world, hypothetical or otherwise, where Joker would have only played 13mins the last few seasons (like Foote). Even Ralph Krueger gave Joker around 15mins atoi 5v5 and 17mins overall during his tenure. The same Ralph Krueger who didn’t like playing youth, trusted mediocre or bad vets over them and had a lot of options.

The question you’re asking has no logical premise underlying it. If you had asked about him being simply a 3rd pairing dman instead of top 4. That would make sense. But even then, I couldn’t answer it until I see him play those mintues for Granato.

Which gets me back to you bringing up Foote. Why? He has zero relevance to the conversation about HOW Joker would perform in a lesser role. Those charts you posted can‘t tell us how Joker would perform either. So why bring all of that up?

 

[joshjull]

We definitely lacked depth last year. We iced a pretty good forward group but on defense, we hardly iced a full group when healthy. There were 7/8/9s but if your top 6 is already lacking and an injury occurs, that's 2 or more below-replacement-level guys in the lineup.

We mostly knew this going into the season. We also knew Adams wanted to highlight specific holes in the lineup in that he wanted to know decisively what needed to be added and how kids would adapt. We'll see more significant movement this offseason.

The offense was just as thin. Posters are forgetting how lucky they were with injuries. It was the reverse for defense. Or that we got lucky finding a solution for bottom 6 center with an in season waiver claim (Jost). That claim allowed a reset with the bottom 6 that paid dividends later in the season.

Also let’s be realistic, I don’t care who your starting 6 dmen are. If you’re missing half your top four and playing 3 or 4 of your 7-11 dmen you’re going to struggle on the backend. We didn’t have a good enough team to overcome that.

Yes we need to improve our top 4 and better our depth. But getting hammered with injuries at any position usually takes a team approach to overcome it.

 

[Matt Ress]

The offense was just as thin. Posters are forgetting how lucky they were with injuries. It was the reverse for defense. Or that we got lucky finding a solution for bottom 6 center with an in season waiver claim (Jost). That claim allowed a reset with the bottom 6 that paid dividends later in the season.

Also let’s be realistic, I don’t care who your starting 6 dmen are. If you’re missing half your top four and playing 3 or 4 of your 7-11 dmen you’re going to struggle on the backend. We didn’t have a good enough team to overcome that.

Yes we need to improve our top 4 and better our depth. But getting hammered with injuries at any position usually takes a team approach to overcome it.

No doubt. None of the kids were ready this season but hopefully one or two will be ready for spot duty next season.