Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Matt Ress]

Just fighting fire with fire. If you go back and look at the posts that started this conversation, I'm the one who posted stats and did research. Not the poster I was responding to.

I'm aware how Joki was used.

Are you aware that this conversation is about a hypothetical scenario in which the Sabres spent their cap on actual, bonafide middle of the lineup players, instead of overpaying the guys on the fringes?

In this hypothetical the Sabres could have still spent to the cap floor, since they weren't overpaying ~6 guys by about an average of ~1mil each. It frees up about $6mil in cap that needs to be spent. Could have afforded a nice top 4 dman for $6milaav.

So in this hypothetical world where Joker got comparable ice time to Foote, because there were actual NHL players ahead of him on the roster. How much do think he'd be getting paid?

Coincidentally I suggested going after Foote at the deadline and was told he wouldn't be moved. Tough to gauge his value from that mess of a deal though. I still think he'll grow into a good defensive defenseman.

 

[alehman42]

The offense was just as thin. Posters are forgetting how lucky they were with injuries. It was the reverse for defense. Or that we got lucky finding a solution for bottom 6 center with an in season waiver claim (Jost). That claim allowed a reset with the bottom 6 that paid dividends later in the season.

Also let’s be realistic, I don’t care who your starting 6 dmen are. If you’re missing half your top four and playing 3 or 4 of your 7-11 dmen you’re going to struggle on the backend. We didn’t have a good enough team to overcome that.

Yes we need to improve our top 4 and better our depth. But getting hammered with injuries at any position usually takes a team approach to overcome it.

Yes, this.

Overall, the Sabres probably had about an average number of injuries last season. But they got there by having the forwards miss far fewer games than average, and the defence missing far more than average.

I think that's led to some people believing that the forward depth is fine and the defensive depth is in dire straits, when in reality they both probably need some help.

 

[Fezzy126]

Yes, this.

Overall, the Sabres probably had about an average number of injuries last season. But they got there by having the forwards miss far fewer games than average, and the defence missing far more than average.

I think that's led to some people believing that the forward depth is fine and the defensive depth is in dire straits, when in reality they both probably need some help.

There were 4-6 forwards down in Rochester that would have earned a look in normal years, including; Biro, Murray, Rousek, Weissbach, and possibly even Rosen or Kulich. They demoted Hino and traded away Bjork for nothing.

So I wouldn't say the Sabres lacked depth at forward, in my mind they lacked experience, but also lacked a complimentary skillset among their forwards. We didn't have a fully developed top 6 yet, we just had a top line and a bunch of kids that rode the proverbial roller coaster. So if we had one injury to Tuch or Tage, simultaneously coupled with a cold spell from the kid line, then we'd have absolutely no top 6 scoring threat. The only thing that solves that problem is the development of Cozens, Quinn, and Peterka. When those guys become consistent, then we'll be able to tolerate an injury or two and cycle in new kids into the lineup as complimentary pieces.

Defense, on the other hand, was always severely thin, both in experience and talent. At one point we were left wondering if we had anyone on an NHL contract that could take a few shifts with the combined injuries in Buffalo and Rochester.

 

[joshjull]

There were 4-6 forwards down in Rochester that would have earned a look in normal years,including; Biro, Murray, Rousek, Weissbach, and possibly even Rosen or Kulich. They demoted Hino and traded away Bjork for nothing.

So I wouldn't say the Sabres lacked depth at forward, in my mind they lacked experience, but also lacked a complimentary skillset among their forwards. We didn't have a fully developed top 6 yet, just a top line and a bunch of kids that rode the proverbial roller coaster. So one injury to Tuch or Tage, coupled with a cold spell from the kid line and we'd have no top 6 scoring element. The only thing that solves that problem is the development of Cozens, Quinn, and Peterka.When those guys become consistent, then we'll be able to tolerate and injury or two and cycle in a new kid into the lineup.

Defense, on the other hand, was always severely thin, both in experience and talent. At one point we were left wondering if we had anyone on an NHL contract that could take a few shifts with the combined injuries in Buffalo and Rochester.

There were just four** and they were on par with the depth dmen we had to work with. None of those forwards would have done much to overcome losing 6-8 forwards from our starting 12 to injury. Especially with at least 1 or 2 of Skinner/Tage/Tuch/Cozens out for an extended period. Because thats the rough equivalent of the hammering the defense took requiring our 7th to 11th dmen to play as much as they did.

**Kulich/Rosen wouldn’t have been called up for more than a cup of coffee. Just like Peterka/Quinn before them.

 

[Sabres]

Yeah, I don't know why I added a bunch of extra crap in there...

#11 + Myers for #13.

Why not take Boeser and Myers to move up from our 2nd rounder to #11. Idk if the value on that makes sense for either side. But we could easily retain half on Boeser and move him somewhere. We won’t need that cap anyways.

Feels like 11+13 could get us to wherever Michkov would be. Or we get two studs with those picks.

Again, anyone who is knowledge on this type of value let me know if I’m way off or if it’s about right. I know it’s a pipe dream but I’m just trying to have some fun here

 

[elchud]

The price to move Myers is (or should be) high, because he is buy-out proof to Vancouver.

The trade should be Myers+the 11th overall for the Sabres 2024 1st.

 

[elchud]

The trade value chart is pretty irrelevant for what we are talking about. It is absolutely true that teams don't trade out of the top-10. But this is a once-in-20-years draft, where the top-15 is a top-10. So I think 11+13 to move up is an absolute possibility, this year...but a trade value chart is out the window. This is a very unique draft.

I still think it's a top-5 forward draft where you don't trade down to miss out on any of them, MTL would be insane to not take Michkov if he is there at 5. Arizona has a gazillion draft picks the next few years, they shouldn't be trading down from 6. Philly should also be thinking high-end prospect all the way. That leaves Washington at 8 as the 1st team that I think could trade down.

 

[Jim Bob]

The trade value chart is pretty irrelevant for what we are talking about. It is absolutely true that teams don't trade out of the top-10. But this is a once-in-20-years draft, where the top-15 is a top-10. So I think 11+13 to move up is an absolute possibility, this year...but a trade value chart is out the window. This is a very unique draft.

I still think it's a top-5 forward draft where you don't trade down to miss out on any of them, MTL would be insane to not take Michkov if he is there at 5. Arizona has a gazillion draft picks the next few years, they shouldn't be trading down from 6. Philly should also be thinking high-end prospect all the way. That leaves Washington at 8 as the 1st team that I think could trade down.

We have heard "this draft is unique" plenty of time the past 14 drafts. And we have not seen a single trade up just for picks.

There are people saying why didn't someone trade up for Wright last year when he slid, for instance. I doubt Michkov sliding will lead to the first trade up for picks we have seen in 15 years.

 

[elchud]

We have heard "this draft is unique" plenty of time the past 14 drafts. And we have not seen a single trade up just for picks.

There are people saying why didn't someone trade up for Wright last year when he slid, for instance. I doubt Michkov sliding will lead to the first trade up for picks we have seen in 15 years.

Well it would have to be the right trade and absolutely would not conform to any trade value chart.

The reason it doesn't happen is the price is too damn high. One year it won't be. I personally don't think this is the year. I think it *would take* two picks in the the 11-15 range, and no team qualifies for that. How many years do any teams qualify for that? The hypothetical is what could Buffalo do with 11 and 13. Of course they could move into the top 10 with that, but since they don't have 11 and 13 it's just a thought experiment.

 

[Jim Bob]

Well it would have to be the right trade and absolutely would not conform to any trade value chart.

The reason it doesn't happen is the price is too damn high. One year it won't be. I personally don't think this is the year. I think it *would take* two picks in the the 11-15 range, and no team qualifies for that. How many years do any teams qualify for that? The hypothetical is what could Buffalo do with 11 and 13. Of course they could move into the top 10 with that, but since they don't have 11 and 13 it's just a thought experiment.

I doubt you get a team with two picks in the 11-15 range that are willing to give up both of them for one pick in the 5-7 OV range.

For instance, in theory, the Sabres could have tried to move 9 & 16 for 6 to take Jiricek.

To get Michkov, you might need to get up to 4. It will be interesting to see what Grier does as a rookie GM. But, I think he would need players and just not picks to move out of that pick.

 

[Fezzy126]

There were just four** and they were on par with the depth dmen we had to work with. None of those forwards would have done much to overcome losing 6-8 forwards from our starting 12 to injury. Especially with at least 1 or 2 of Skinner/Tage/Tuch/Cozens out for an extended period. Because thats the rough equivalent of the hammering the defense took requiring our 7th to 11th dmen to play as much as they did.

**Kulich/Rosen wouldn’t have been called up for more than a cup of coffee. Just like Peterka/Quinn before them.

I disagree that the defensemen were on par with the forwards. I don't think any of the defensemen in Rochester 'earned' a callup in the same way that multiple forwards did (I say this as someone that was a big fan of Priskie in the preseason). Clague probably gave us the most surprising contributions from our depth, but he wasn't exactly tearing up the AHL prior to his call up.

Looking back, the worst players were Bryson and Boosh when trying to play through his injury. I'm not gonna go into detail about Jokiharju here, but I also think he was playing in too heavy of a role. We thought maybe Bryson was just playing over his head, but the regression in his game really showed when he still struggled in a 3rd pairing role.

I think we need better depth on D, but we absolutely need another top 4 piece. We can look back on the quantity of injuries, but the fact of the matter is that the defense fell apart when we lost a single top 4 piece. We struggled both times that Sammy got hurt, and then we struggled when Dahlin got banged up. This isn't a case of being able to withstand multiple injuries, we can't tolerate a single injury to our top 4.

Alternatively, the team was 3-0-1 when Tage was out of the lineup. We have capable top 6 pieces that can fill in up and down the lineup, and complimentary pieces from Rochester that can fill in in short spurts, it's just the inconsistency due to youth that's the biggest problem.

 

[Fjordy]

Just find top 4 D and things will get a lot easier. Defensive depth will immediately improve as Jokiharju, Boosh and Stillman play third pair, Bryson will have to go to Rochester and be #8. Johnson may get a call, although we'll see how he looks in the camp.

 

[Matt Ress]

I disagree that the defensemen were on par with the forwards. I don't think any of the defensemen in Rochester 'earned' a callup in the same way that multiple forwards did (I say this as someone that was a big fan of Priskie in the preseason). Clague probably gave us the most surprising contributions from our depth, but he wasn't exactly tearing up the AHL prior to his call up.

Looking back, the worst players were Bryson and Boosh when trying to play through his injury. I'm not gonna go into detail about Jokiharju here, but I also think he was playing in too heavy of a role. We thought maybe Bryson was just playing over his head, but the regression in his game really showed when he still struggled in a 3rd pairing role.

View attachment 714140

I think we need better depth on D, but we absolutely need another top 4 piece. We can look back on the quantity of injuries, but the fact of the matter is that the defense fell apart when we lost a single top 4 piece. We struggled both times that Sammy got hurt, and then we struggled when Dahlin got banged up. This isn't a case of being able to withstand multiple injuries, we can't tolerate a single injury to our top 4.

Alternatively, the team was 3-0-1 when Tage was out of the lineup. We have capable top 6 pieces that can fill in up and down the lineup, and complimentary pieces from Rochester that can fill in in short spurts, it's just the inconsistency due to youth that's the biggest problem.

They've had their growing pains for sure. The forwards had a good top line and a reasonably full lineup but not much after that. The defense was top heavy with 3 and then maybe 5/6/7/8. Maybe a decent #5. Even Power wasn't a legit #3 if we're being honest with ourselves but we should see some improvement there.

Obviously that #4 is a big missing piece which isn't a secret. If they can pull a legit #3 or #4, it would push other guys into fitting roles.

 

[Fjordy]

Chad DeDomincis:

- Hellebuyck price 1st + roster player + B prospect (#13 + UPL + Kisakov - Chad's proposal)

- He also traded Bryson + 2nd 2024 for Grzelcyk

- Jost and Girgensons won't be back

- Olofsson isn’t generating much trade interest around the league

 

[Der Jaeger]

Chad DeDomincis:

- Hellebuyck price 1st + roster player + B prospect (#13 + UPL + Kisakov - Chad's proposal)

- He also traded Bryson + 2nd 2024 for Grzelcyk

- Jost and Girgensons won't be back

- Olofsson isn’t generating much trade interest around the league

Good with the Hellebuyck trade. I don't think the Bruins make the second trade. I'd rather see if the Pens would trade Rutta for Olofsson (50%) retained.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I've been thinking about what my ideal offseason plan is and this is what I have so far. I'd go into it wanting to accomplish the following:

- Find a partner for Power
- Add more established NHL players
- Help the PK
- Improve physicality
- Address goaltending
- Improve on faceoffs
- Improve team defense

Move 1:

Buffalo receives Matt Roy, Alex Iafallo. LA Kings Acquire Philadelphia's 2nd round pick in 2023, Buffalo's 2nd round pick in 2024 and Lukas Rousek.

NOTE: I only do this trade if I'm confident we can re-sign Matt Roy in the ballpark of 5 years for 5 million per.

Rationale: I think this would be a massive add for us. Matt Roy does everything well. He's an excellent PKer, great underlyings, isn't terrible on offense. Iafallo adds a defensive minded forward who also really stepped it up in the playoffs. Plus, he's from Eden. This opens up a spot for Clarke to join the Kings, and us taking Iafallo's contract paves the way for them to re-sign Gavrikov and Korpisalo. If this trade isn't possible, I think signing Scott Mayfield to a similar type of contract would be my backup plan.

Move 2:

Sign Noel Accari, ballpark of 2 years 2.5m per

Rationale: There's our 4C. I was very impressed with him for Toronto in the playoffs. I think he fits the role of 4C much better than Tyson Jost as he's a good faceoff guy, good PK guy and adds a veteran, physical presence. Tough as nails kind of player you'd love to have on any team. Backup plans would be trading for Lafferty if possible/signing David Kampf (I know, all Toronto guys).

Move 3:

Sign Adin Hill, ballpark of 2 years, 4m per

Rationale: This is more than just his playoff performance. He's performed reasonably well everywhere he's been - which has typically been on poor teams. I think he's a clear upgrade over Comrie/UPL and would help insulate Levi nicely until he's ready to have a starters workload. Tristian Jarry, Freddy Anderson and Varlamov would be my backup plans here.

Move 4:

Trade UPL for Brenden Dillon (ballpark, would add slightly, but that would be the framework)

Rationale: I'm not sure the value that Dillon carries, but he's older and a UFA at the end of the year. I struggled hard trying to think about what to do for our 3LD spot. I view Stillman as an ideal 7th. I don't want Bryson anywhere near the NHL. Johnson will likely be in Rochester for most of the year. Adding Dillon and having a DIllon-Lybushkin pair I think creates a reliable 3rd pairing that we can roll more evenly than we did this year, and Dillon can step up in case of a Power/Samuelsson injury. If we do well, I think we can evaluate bringing Dillon back on a year-by-year basis. Carson Soucy would be a backup plan here (pending on his asking price).

Move(s) 5:

Trade Olofsson, Jokiharju, Comrie (if possible)

No real use for them any longer, and that would help recoup most of our value in picks in the Roy/Iafallo trade.

Lineup would be:

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mittelstadt - Cozens - Iafallo
Peterka - Krebs - Quinn
Greenway - Accari - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Roy
Dillon - Lybushkin

Hill
Levi

I think that's not only a playoff team, but one that could win a series (then who knows?). It accomplishes all of the goals I lined out, and we don't rid ourselves of any of our top prospects, mortage our future for short-term moves, create roadblocks for prospects or cripple ourselves for future contracts. I think the Sabres have the potential to be more ready than we think they are, but if we continue just to take baby steps it's going to be a long wait - it doesn't have to be. Let's make some moves and get ourselves into contention.

 

[Fjordy]

Good with the Hellebuyck trade. I don't think the Bruins make the second trade. I'd rather see if the Pens would trade Rutta for Olofsson (50%) retained. Rutta was a healthy scratch by season's end.

But do we need Rutta? Then it would probably be better to be Petry, because Rutta seems to be not top 4 D and we already have Boosh and Joki as right-handers for the third pair.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Chad DeDomincis:

- Hellebuyck price 1st + roster player + B prospect (#13 + UPL + Kisakov - Chad's proposal)

- He also traded Bryson + 2nd 2024 for Grzelcyk

- Jost and Girgensons won't be back

- Olofsson isn’t generating much trade interest around the league

I've seen post about this but where did he say it?

 

[Fjordy]

I've seen post about this but where did he say it?

Mock Offseason 2.0 | Keeping the 'Big 4' Prospects

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Mock Offseason 2.0 | Keeping the 'Big 4' Prospects

Oh lol ok I thought he went on WGR or something I'm not subscribed to there patreon

 

[Chainshot]

I disagree that the defensemen were on par with the forwards. I don't think any of the defensemen in Rochester 'earned' a callup in the same way that multiple forwards did (I say this as someone that was a big fan of Priskie in the preseason). Clague probably gave us the most surprising contributions from our depth, but he wasn't exactly tearing up the AHL prior to his call up.

Looking back, the worst players were Bryson and Boosh when trying to play through his injury. I'm not gonna go into detail about Jokiharju here, but I also think he was playing in too heavy of a role. We thought maybe Bryson was just playing over his head, but the regression in his game really showed when he still struggled in a 3rd pairing role.

View attachment 714140

I think we need better depth on D, but we absolutely need another top 4 piece. We can look back on the quantity of injuries, but the fact of the matter is that the defense fell apart when we lost a single top 4 piece. We struggled both times that Sammy got hurt, and then we struggled when Dahlin got banged up. This isn't a case of being able to withstand multiple injuries, we can't tolerate a single injury to our top 4.

Alternatively, the team was 3-0-1 when Tage was out of the lineup. We have capable top 6 pieces that can fill in up and down the lineup, and complimentary pieces from Rochester that can fill in in short spurts, it's just the inconsistency due to youth that's the biggest problem.

I still think the biggest issue with Bryson isn't that he's a "bad" defenseman but that he has absolutely zero offensive contribution means anything that happens on the ice that goes in the net is never, ever overcome by a positive contribution. And at this point, I don't think that is going to change. They can't have someone who is both small and a liability to shot generation in a depth role on their blueline.

 

[thewookie1]

The price to move Myers is (or should be) high, because he is buy-out proof to Vancouver.

The trade should be Myers+the 11th overall for the Sabres 2024 1st.

You don’t trade a future 1st to acquire a cap dump and a 1st.

I can’t imagine LA making that trade, they have outright refused most offers I have them that didn’t include ridiculously expensive costs

 

[Beerz]

I've been thinking about what my ideal offseason plan is and this is what I have so far. I'd go into it wanting to accomplish the following:

- Find a partner for Power
- Add more established NHL players
- Help the PK
- Improve physicality
- Address goaltending
- Improve on faceoffs
- Improve team defense

Move 1:

Buffalo receives Matt Roy, Alex Iafallo. LA Kings Acquire Philadelphia's 2nd round pick in 2023, Buffalo's 2nd round pick in 2024 and Lukas Rousek.

NOTE: I only do this trade if I'm confident we can re-sign Matt Roy in the ballpark of 5 years for 5 million per.

Rationale: I think this would be a massive add for us. Matt Roy does everything well. He's an excellent PKer, great underlyings, isn't terrible on offense. Iafallo adds a defensive minded forward who also really stepped it up in the playoffs. Plus, he's from Eden. This opens up a spot for Clarke to join the Kings, and us taking Iafallo's contract paves the way for them to re-sign Gavrikov and Korpisalo. If this trade isn't possible, I think signing Scott Mayfield to a similar type of contract would be my backup plan.

Move 2:

Sign Noel Accari, ballpark of 2 years 2.5m per

Rationale: There's our 4C. I was very impressed with him for Toronto in the playoffs. I think he fits the role of 4C much better than Tyson Jost as he's a good faceoff guy, good PK guy and adds a veteran, physical presence. Tough as nails kind of player you'd love to have on any team. Backup plans would be trading for Lafferty if possible/signing David Kampf (I know, all Toronto guys).

Move 3:

Sign Adin Hill, ballpark of 2 years, 4m per

Rationale: This is more than just his playoff performance. He's performed reasonably well everywhere he's been - which has typically been on poor teams. I think he's a clear upgrade over Comrie/UPL and would help insulate Levi nicely until he's ready to have a starters workload. Tristian Jarry, Freddy Anderson and Varlamov would be my backup plans here.

Move 4:

Trade UPL for Brenden Dillon (ballpark, would add slightly, but that would be the framework)

Rationale: I'm not sure the value that Dillon carries, but he's older and a UFA at the end of the year. I struggled hard trying to think about what to do for our 3LD spot. I view Stillman as an ideal 7th. I don't want Bryson anywhere near the NHL. Johnson will likely be in Rochester for most of the year. Adding Dillon and having a DIllon-Lybushkin pair I think creates a reliable 3rd pairing that we can roll more evenly than we did this year, and Dillon can step up in case of a Power/Samuelsson injury. If we do well, I think we can evaluate bringing Dillon back on a year-by-year basis. Carson Soucy would be a backup plan here (pending on his asking price).

Move(s) 5:

Trade Olofsson, Jokiharju, Comrie (if possible)

No real use for them any longer, and that would help recoup most of our value in picks in the Roy/Iafallo trade.

Lineup would be:

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mittelstadt - Cozens - Iafallo
Peterka - Krebs - Quinn
Greenway - Accari - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Roy
Dillon - Lybushkin

Hill
Levi

I think that's not only a playoff team, but one that could win a series (then who knows?). It accomplishes all of the goals I lined out, and we don't rid ourselves of any of our top prospects, mortage our future for short-term moves, create roadblocks for prospects or cripple ourselves for future contracts. I think the Sabres have the potential to be more ready than we think they are, but if we continue just to take baby steps it's going to be a long wait - it doesn't have to be. Let's make some moves and get ourselves into contention.

Why would you stunt Quinns and Peterkas growth by sticking them with Krebs?

 

[RefsIdeas]

Why would you stunt Quinns and Peterkas growth by sticking them with Krebs?

I think of all of the parts of my lineup I have the most concern about Krebs being able to take a step. This would be putting Krebs in a spot to do well offensively which he wasn’t put in for most of the year last year. I could see an argument for having Mittelstadt center that line and trading Krebs. But I don’t think Krebs is what you want at 4C long term.

 

[Matt Ress]

Idk man, I think HF fans get a little caught up in their players sometimes. Roy won't demand (2) 1sts like LA fans suggested. The joke of a demand for Parayko on the mains was even worse. Guess ya never know till it happens.