Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Fezzy126]

I still think the biggest issue with Bryson isn't that he's a "bad" defenseman but that he has absolutely zero offensive contribution means anything that happens on the ice that goes in the net is never, ever overcome by a positive contribution. And at this point, I don't think that is going to change. They can't have someone who is both small and a liability to shot generation in a depth role on their blueline.

I stuck up for Bryson all last offseason, trying to get people to come to terms that despite his size, he should actually be viewed as a defensive defensman for his on ice impact. I really liked his potential as a Grzelcyk-lite, 3rd pairing type of defensive dman. The problem is that his size really gets exploited in front of the net. On the other end of the rink, as you mentioned his offense is equal to zero, it's like his hockey IQ becomes a negative number once he crosses the blue line.

So if you try to compensate for his size with bigger defensive type of dman as a partner, then that pairing becomes a black hole for offense while occasionally having his size exploited in the defensive end.
If you try and compensate for his offensive ineptitude with an offensive dman as a partner, then that pairing becomes a defensive liability while he occasionally kills a possession when he's forced to touch the puck in the offensive zone.

It's obvious that he's a huge part of the locker room and the vibes around the team. At this point I'm keeping him around for that 7/8 role for the vibes and hoping he has a little more growth in his game left.

 

[TehDoak]

I've been thinking about what my ideal offseason plan is and this is what I have so far. I'd go into it wanting to accomplish the following:

- Find a partner for Power
- Add more established NHL players
- Help the PK
- Improve physicality
- Address goaltending
- Improve on faceoffs
- Improve team defense

Move 1:

Buffalo receives Matt Roy, Alex Iafallo. LA Kings Acquire Philadelphia's 2nd round pick in 2023, Buffalo's 2nd round pick in 2024 and Lukas Rousek.

NOTE: I only do this trade if I'm confident we can re-sign Matt Roy in the ballpark of 5 years for 5 million per.

Rationale: I think this would be a massive add for us. Matt Roy does everything well. He's an excellent PKer, great underlyings, isn't terrible on offense. Iafallo adds a defensive minded forward who also really stepped it up in the playoffs. Plus, he's from Eden. This opens up a spot for Clarke to join the Kings, and us taking Iafallo's contract paves the way for them to re-sign Gavrikov and Korpisalo. If this trade isn't possible, I think signing Scott Mayfield to a similar type of contract would be my backup plan.

Move 2:

Sign Noel Accari, ballpark of 2 years 2.5m per

Rationale: There's our 4C. I was very impressed with him for Toronto in the playoffs. I think he fits the role of 4C much better than Tyson Jost as he's a good faceoff guy, good PK guy and adds a veteran, physical presence. Tough as nails kind of player you'd love to have on any team. Backup plans would be trading for Lafferty if possible/signing David Kampf (I know, all Toronto guys).

Move 3:

Sign Adin Hill, ballpark of 2 years, 4m per

Rationale: This is more than just his playoff performance. He's performed reasonably well everywhere he's been - which has typically been on poor teams. I think he's a clear upgrade over Comrie/UPL and would help insulate Levi nicely until he's ready to have a starters workload. Tristian Jarry, Freddy Anderson and Varlamov would be my backup plans here.

Move 4:

Trade UPL for Brenden Dillon (ballpark, would add slightly, but that would be the framework)

Rationale: I'm not sure the value that Dillon carries, but he's older and a UFA at the end of the year. I struggled hard trying to think about what to do for our 3LD spot. I view Stillman as an ideal 7th. I don't want Bryson anywhere near the NHL. Johnson will likely be in Rochester for most of the year. Adding Dillon and having a DIllon-Lybushkin pair I think creates a reliable 3rd pairing that we can roll more evenly than we did this year, and Dillon can step up in case of a Power/Samuelsson injury. If we do well, I think we can evaluate bringing Dillon back on a year-by-year basis. Carson Soucy would be a backup plan here (pending on his asking price).

Move(s) 5:

Trade Olofsson, Jokiharju, Comrie (if possible)

No real use for them any longer, and that would help recoup most of our value in picks in the Roy/Iafallo trade.

Lineup would be:

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mittelstadt - Cozens - Iafallo
Peterka - Krebs - Quinn
Greenway - Accari - Okposo

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Roy
Dillon - Lybushkin

Hill
Levi

I think that's not only a playoff team, but one that could win a series (then who knows?). It accomplishes all of the goals I lined out, and we don't rid ourselves of any of our top prospects, mortage our future for short-term moves, create roadblocks for prospects or cripple ourselves for future contracts. I think the Sabres have the potential to be more ready than we think they are, but if we continue just to take baby steps it's going to be a long wait - it doesn't have to be. Let's make some moves and get ourselves into contention.

Love the Roy deal, love Accari.

Hill is an upgrade on Comrie...but I'm not sure he moves the needle enough. My only other thought is Keep UPL and simply buyout Comrie. Run Hill/UPL and let Levi get the lions share of starts in Rochester.

 

[Gras]

Love the Roy deal, love Accari.

Hill is an upgrade on Comrie...but I'm not sure he moves the needle enough. My only other thought is Keep UPL and simply buyout Comrie. Run Hill/UPL and let Levi get the lions share of starts in Rochester.

No point in buying out Comrie if you do this, either he gets stashed in Roch as depth or he gets claimed.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

I stuck up for Bryson all last offseason, trying to get people to come to terms that despite his size, he should actually be viewed as a defensive defensman for his on ice impact. I really liked his potential as a Grzelcyk-lite, 3rd pairing type of defensive dman. The problem is that his size really gets exploited in front of the net. On the other end of the rink, as you mentioned his offense is equal to zero, it's like his hockey IQ becomes a negative number once he crosses the blue line.

So if you try to compensate for his size with bigger defensive type of dman as a partner, then that pairing becomes a black hole for offense while occasionally having his size exploited in the defensive end.
If you try and compensate for his offensive ineptitude with an offensive dman as a partner, then that pairing becomes a defensive liability while he occasionally kills a possession when he's forced to touch the puck in the offensive zone.

It's obvious that he's a huge part of the locker room and the vibes around the team. At this point I'm keeping him around for that 7/8 role for the vibes and hoping he has a little more growth in his game left.

His metrics would show that he is more defensive but its hard to think that when ( At least I would argue) he is the best skater on the team. The guy will show flashes of a Bobby Orr when he takes the puck coast to coast. I am sure others are laughing at the Bobby Orr reference but the kid is a sneaky amazing skater but he just seems to lack the confidence. But as you and Chain mentioned he looks bad defending into front of the net and battles on the boards. I hear the argument about keeping him around as a 7/8 depth guy but trading for Stillman and signing Johnson suggests that the organization doesn't feel that way about Bryson

 

[joshjull]

I disagree that the defensemen were on par with the forwards. I don't think any of the defensemen in Rochester 'earned' a callup in the same way that multiple forwards did (I say this as someone that was a big fan of Priskie in the preseason). Clague probably gave us the most surprising contributions from our depth, but he wasn't exactly tearing up the AHL prior to his call up.

They’re on par in the sense that they will do little to replace the loss or hobbling of 6+ forwards that included 1 or 2 of the top six. Thats roughly the hit the defense took during the 8gm losing streak.

Looking back, the worst players were Bryson and Boosh when trying to play through his injury. I'm not gonna go into detail about Jokiharju here, but I also think he was playing in too heavy of a role. We thought maybe Bryson was just playing over his head, but the regression in his game really showed when he still struggled in a 3rd pairing role.

Agree with all of this.

I think we need better depth on D, but we absolutely need another top 4 piece.

Completely agree.

We can look back on the quantity of injuries, but the fact of the matter is that the defense fell apart when we lost a single top 4 piece. We struggled both times that Sammy got hurt, and then we struggled when Dahlin got banged up. This isn't a case of being able to withstand multiple injuries, we can't tolerate a single injury to our top 4.

Thats not true.

Fast forward from the 8gm losing streak to March 12th. Both Dahlin/Sammy held out of practice with injuries. Next 8gms Dahlin plays through his injury and Sammy is out and we went 3-3-2. Which shouldn’t be possible if the bolded is true. So what was different? The forwards were far better than they were back in November and the defense wasn’t as banged up.

You need depth at positions for sure. But the overall team is also needed to help mitigate injuries to your top guys.

Alternatively, the team was 3-0-1 when Tage was out of the lineup. We have capable top 6 pieces that can fill in up and down the lineup, and complimentary pieces from Rochester that can fill in in short spurts, it's just the inconsistency due to youth that's the biggest problem.

You're can’t compare Tage missing 3gms with something like the 8gm losing streak. Where several dmen were out, the forwards were a mess and obviously more games.

 

[Irie]

Alternatively, the team was 3-0-1 when Tage was out of the lineup. We have capable top 6 pieces that can fill in up and down the lineup, and complimentary pieces from Rochester that can fill in in short spurts, it's just the inconsistency due to youth that's the biggest problem.

I think you are exactly right about Thompson and why the team could overcome losing him, but I don't know if I would generalize the "top 6" pieces quite so much.

When Tage is out, the team has a viable replacement in Mitts, but, when the team loses Tuch, there is no replacement who brings what he brings, and I think the team was like 2-6 without him.

Same affect is present when the team loses Sammy. There is no viable replacement that brings what he brings. This team could probably withstand losing Power for a time, but not Samuelsson, The bad PK got substantially worse when he was out. (75% when he plays to 69% when he is out.)

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I think you are exactly right about Thompson and why the team could overcome losing him, but I don't know if I would generalize the "top 6" pieces quite so much.

When Tage is out, the team has a viable replacement in Mitts, but, when the team loses Tuch, there is no replacement who brings what he brings, and I think the team was like 2-6 without him.

Same affect is present when the team loses Sammy. There is no viable replacement that brings what he brings. This team could probably withstand losing Power for a time, but not Samuelsson, The bad PK got substantially worse when he was out. (75% when he plays to 69% when he is out.)

Management seems to be aware of this issue, so I'm not too worried.

 

[Irie]

His metrics would show that he is more defensive but its hard to think that when ( At least I would argue) he is the best skater on the team. The guy will show flashes of a Bobby Orr when he takes the puck coast to coast. I am sure others are laughing at the Bobby Orr reference but the kid is a sneaky amazing skater but he just seems to lack the confidence. But as you and Chain mentioned he looks bad defending into front of the net and battles on the boards. I hear the argument about keeping him around as a 7/8 depth guy but trading for Stillman and signing Johnson suggests that the organization doesn't feel that way about Bryson

A big part of Bryson's problem was that he was no where near the best skater on the team for 2/3rds of the season. He was unable to skate down even average skaters, which was a clear indication that he was playing injured for the majority of the season.

I have defended Bryson all season, but not as a solution for this team, but against the ridiculous hyperbole from a few posters that he is not even an 8th or 9th depth option on any NHL team.

Personally, I see Bryson as a pretty average #7 in todays watered down NHL. Expansion and the changes to the game have flooded the league with small, defensively deficient depth Dmen and Bryson stacks up equally to what a lot of teams have in that slot.

My problem is that Bryson was never the type of player I am looking for on a team's third pairing. I believe third pairing guys need to provide solid D so they won't hurt the team in limited minutes, provide some physicality so they won't get steamrolled, and provide some penalty killing to reduce the workload of the top 4. Bryson is lacking in all of those areas, so I never found him as a desirable 6/7 guy. Sure. he is serviceable in a pinch when healthy, and he has his moments, but he is just not the way I would build a roster if I am looking to compete.

 

[thewookie1]

Bryson has the build of an offensive defenseman but with none of the offensive talent to use it effectively

 

[tsujimoto74]

Bryson has the build of an offensive defenseman but with none of the offensive talent to use it effectively

Or, flipping that the other way, he has all the tools of an steady bottom pairing stay-at-home D except the size to do it effectively.

 

[Ace]

I put Helle in the same bucket with Parayko. They’re both great ideas on paper that run into problems pretty quickly.

Would I trade 13, UPL and a B prospect for Helle? Yeah…that’s not the problem. It’s his contract. He needs a new one after this year. What am I doing with that? Paying that price for one year? No. He has no reason to sign a 2 or 3 year deal at his age…this is his last cash in. And I don’t want to be on the hook for the number he’s going to get at the term he’s going to get. I’d do it if he had 2-4 years and not think twice about it. That’s not an option. He’s not taking a short term deal here when he can walk and get a long term deal someone else will regret the back years of.

Parayko already has his contract but it’s a similar problem. I’d happily slide him next to Power and roll that top 4 for a while. The 6.5 million doesn't bother me now…but he gets it until 2030. And look…he can be an effective player until he’s 36…especially in the #4 role and not tasked with his current usage…but three years from now that number is harder. That said…i could be talked into it much easier than the Helle trade. Because I just think that one becomes a bigger mess sooner.

 

[Ace]

Love the Roy deal, love Accari.

Hill is an upgrade on Comrie...but I'm not sure he moves the needle enough. My only other thought is Keep UPL and simply buyout Comrie. Run Hill/UPL and let Levi get the lions share of starts in Rochester.

Hill is a middling option but that beats the bottoming options they’ve been trying. Like…it could work. If they believe Levi is going to be the man sooner than usual I’d understand them going that route. I know everyone will look to his playoff run as banking on a short sample behind a team every goalie plays well with. But he has had over 100 NHL regular season starts on three different teams…and his numbers say maybe he just should get more games. But that’s what Carter Hutton’s said too. So…who knows.

Of course…if we’d have gotten Hutton’s first season here this year we’d have made the playoffs easy… So even then.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Hill is a middling option but that beats the bottoming options they’ve been trying. Like…it could work. If they believe Levi is going to be the man sooner than usual I’d understand them going that route. I know everyone will look to his playoff run as banking on a short sample behind a team every goalie plays well with. But he has had over 100 NHL regular season starts on three different teams…and his numbers say maybe he just should get more games. But that’s what Carter Hutton’s said too. So…who knows.

Of course…if we’d have gotten Hutton’s first season here this year we’d have made the playoffs easy… So even then.

Yeah, Hill isn’t the absolute dream scenario or anything but there’s not many perfect fits. I think we ideally want a starter for the next 2-3 years who can be a bridge to Levi taking over, with perhaps the potential for more. There’s just not a whole lot of guys that fit that bill.

 

[Jacob582]

I only want Bryson as the 7th if he earns it over 2-3 other legitimate candidates in training camp.

 

[Matt Ress]

I put Helle in the same bucket with Parayko. They’re both great ideas on paper that run into problems pretty quickly.

Would I trade 13, UPL and a B prospect for Helle? Yeah…that’s not the problem. It’s his contract. He needs a new one after this year. What am I doing with that? Paying that price for one year? No. He has no reason to sign a 2 or 3 year deal at his age…this is his last cash in. And I don’t want to be on the hook for the number he’s going to get at the term he’s going to get. I’d do it if he had 2-4 years and not think twice about it. That’s not an option. He’s not taking a short term deal here when he can walk and get a long term deal someone else will regret the back years of.

Parayko already has his contract but it’s a similar problem. I’d happily slide him next to Power and roll that top 4 for a while. The 6.5 million doesn't bother me now…but he gets it until 2030. And look…he can be an effective player until he’s 36…especially in the #4 role and not tasked with his current usage…but three years from now that number is harder. That said…i could be talked into it much easier than the Helle trade. Because I just think that one becomes a bigger mess sooner.

With both players you're eventually bringing in a problem down the road. Doesn't seem to be Adam's MO. I tend to lean more towards Helley than Parayko but they'd both be an issue when it matters - not next year or the year after but in hypothetical contention years.

And for what? To finally break the streak? That means something but I think Adams has bigger goals and I don't think he'll sell tomorrow for today. His ideal is today and tomorrow and he won't be shy about it when the opportunity presents itself.

 

[unte93]

I put Helle in the same bucket with Parayko. They’re both great ideas on paper that run into problems pretty quickly.

Would I trade 13, UPL and a B prospect for Helle? Yeah…that’s not the problem. It’s his contract. He needs a new one after this year. What am I doing with that? Paying that price for one year? No. He has no reason to sign a 2 or 3 year deal at his age…this is his last cash in. And I don’t want to be on the hook for the number he’s going to get at the term he’s going to get. I’d do it if he had 2-4 years and not think twice about it. That’s not an option. He’s not taking a short term deal here when he can walk and get a long term deal someone else will regret the back years of.

Parayko already has his contract but it’s a similar problem. I’d happily slide him next to Power and roll that top 4 for a while. The 6.5 million doesn't bother me now…but he gets it until 2030. And look…he can be an effective player until he’s 36…especially in the #4 role and not tasked with his current usage…but three years from now that number is harder. That said…i could be talked into it much easier than the Helle trade. Because I just think that one becomes a bigger mess sooner.

The Hawks signed Campell to an anchor contract but won a cup and send him elsewhere.

I would do both and deal with the problem when it actually is one.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

The Hawks signed Campell to an anchor contract but won a cup and send him elsewhere.

I would do both and deal with the problem when it actually is one.

There will always be a team that needs cap space and wants draft picks. At least until Gary dies and we get someone competent running the show.

 

[Irie]

The Hawks signed Campell to an anchor contract but won a cup and send him elsewhere.

I would do both and deal with the problem when it actually is one.

They didn't have to give up any assets to acquire Campbell though, San Jose did that, they just poached him from the sharks with the big overpay in free agency, and then had to deal with Doug Wilson's wrath in the Hjarmalsson and Neimi offersheets for their effort.

And if I recall correctly, to get out of that Campbell contract, Chicago had to take on Olesz, pay him like 7M to play in the minors, and then eventually buy him out for a couple million more? Cost the Hawks almost 10M real dollars with zero return to get out of that Campbell contract, and they actually got pretty lucky that the GM that signed him to that awful contract landed in Florida and was willing to deal, because only being on the hook for Olesz and that 10M allowed the hawks to retool and win again, something they probably could not have done had Tallon not taken Campbell and the 36M he was still owed.

It worked out for Chicago because they won the one cup with him, but if they had not won, or could not trade him, it would have been a lot more costly. I can't see Adams risking that sort of move with the Pegula's money.

 

[Weltschmerz]

The Hawks signed Campell to an anchor contract but won a cup and send him elsewhere.

I would do both and deal with the problem when it actually is one.

The difference is the hawks went all in to win a cup, we would go all in just to make the playoffs.

 

[Fjordy]

I would prefer Gavrikov.

 

[Weltschmerz]

I would prefer Gavrikov.

View attachment 714400View attachment 714401

from those 2? sure

what abour Graves, Dunn, Severson?

 

[TehDoak]

They didn't have to give up any assets to acquire Campbell though, San Jose did that, they just poached him from the sharks with the big overpay in free agency, and then had to deal with Doug Wilson's wrath in the Hjarmalsson and Neimi offersheets for their effort.

And if I recall correctly, to get out of that Campbell contract, Chicago had to take on Olesz, pay him like 7M to play in the minors, and then eventually buy him out for a couple million more? Cost the Hawks almost 10M real dollars with zero return to get out of that Campbell contract, and they actually got pretty lucky that the GM that signed him to that awful contract landed in Florida and was willing to deal, because only being on the hook for Olesz and that 10M allowed the hawks to retool and win again, something they probably could not have done had Tallon not taken Campbell and the 36M he was still owed.

It worked out for Chicago because they won the one cup with him, but if they had not won, or could not trade him, it would have been a lot more costly.

Campbell was still reasonably effective, it was really a cap move. He had a 53 point season in his first year with Florida and was a 30-40 pt d-man most of his time there. Overpaid, sure.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

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Played 2 years in Chicago (mostly in the minors) at for 7.4M and got a compliance buyout.

Overall they paid around 10M in actual cash to get out of (and 6M in cap space) to get out of the last 5 years, 35M or so of his contract.

I can't see Adams risking that sort of move with the Pegula's money.

I would HOPE that once we are in a championship window, money will no longer be an issue. The kind of cash heavy, cap lite style deals are how you manipulate and extend a competitive edge. I certainly get NOT wanting to do it now.

 

[Fjordy]

from those 2? sure

what abour Graves, Dunn, Severson?

I would prefer Gavrikov to any defenseman in the UFA, including Severson and Graves. Dunn? He's not UFA.

 

[TehDoak]

The difference is the hawks went all in to win a cup, we would go all in just to make the playoffs.

Campbell signed there in 08. The season before, they finished. with 88 points and missed the playoffs.

So really, the Campbell signing was for a playoff push. The Hossa signing the next year was their cup push.

I mean, in looking at the 08 Blackhawks, they did 3 things I hope we do this summer:

1. Signed a defensemen
2. Signed a goalie
3. Got rid of Keyvn Adams.

Really a dream summer, tbh.

 

[WiHockeyGuy]

Campbell signed there in 08. The season before, they finished. with 88 points and missed the playoffs.

So really, the Campbell signing was for a playoff push. The Hossa signing the next year was their cup push.

I mean, in looking at the 08 Blackhawks, they did 3 things I hope we do this summer:

1. Signed a defensemen
2. Signed a goalie
3. Got rid of Keyvn Adams.

Really a dream summer, tbh.

Oh lord. An ideal summer includes throwing instability back into the mix just as we are starting to see results. Great idea.

Thankfully, that wishlist item ain't on the menu. I'm down for the first two, though.