Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[TehDoak]

Read post #1784

Once again, it comes down to timing, coaching, and team evaluation.

The time to jettison a lot of their assets for immediate help is not yet here,

No big decisions should be addressed until the coaching staff has implemented their defensive solution. That is step one.

This take is bizarre.

The defensive solution is not going to be some brand new system. It's simply going to be some tweaks on the current system. We saw down the stretch that the team can be accountable in their own zone.

The original post was in regards to our defense. We have our top 3 out of 4 set, pretty much in stone. We have a full season (or more) of evaluation under Granato for for every d-man we have except for Stillman and the two prospects we just signed.

This idea we have to wait to spend assets to improve is silly. We need to be continuously trying to improve. The reason why the need on defense is so dire is that the front office has neglected on making significant external addition on D the last 3 years.

The core is still extremely young, the cup window is not open yet. I won't argue that it wouldn't be nice to see Adams bring in a defensive solution, but the need to make that big move last year or this offseason is being greatly over-stated by you few here. Yes, we all want improvement. Yes, we all want to see those big changes soon. But Adams timeline and goals are all about the long-game, and as much as anyone wines and screams about how it has to be done now, the reality is that there is sill plenty of time to make those moves over the next couple of seasons as the window draws closer.

Huh?

I present the 2010 Blackhawks and the 2009 Penguins...their best players (Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Letang). were in their early 20s. Kane/Toews were still on their ELC. The age of our core isn't the issue. The issue is we lack quality supporting veterans to the young core like they had. The opportunity to build around young players on their ELC is rapidly passing. In fact, we missed as opportunity last year while Cozens/Power were both on their ELC and we had 3 1st round picks. We could have rapidly improved through smart moves...well beyond what we saw this year. Now we have Power/Dahlin still relatively cheap and Quinn/Peterka on their ELC still....yet the time is to wait more? It's time to be bold.

 

[Irie]

This take is bizarre.

The defensive solution is not going to be some brand new system. It's simply going to be some tweaks on the current system. We saw down the stretch that the team can be accountable in their own zone.

The original post was in regards to our defense. We have our top 3 out of 4 set, pretty much in stone. We have a full season (or more) of evaluation under Granato for for every d-man we have except for Stillman and the two prospects we just signed.

This idea we have to wait to spend assets to improve is silly. We need to be continuously trying to improve. The reason why the need on defense is so dire is that the front office has neglected on making significant external addition on D the last 3 years.

If you watch the team structure in the D zone and on the PK, the current Sabres are exremely loose. They play a puck pressure, high risk attacking D plan and the entire philosophy is to limit space and disrupt the oppositions execution before they can make plays.

It is a very popular game plan in junior leagues and it works great if you have the skaters to out skate your opponent and your opponent is not cleanly executing. It does not work very well against high skill teams that are executing well.

Wonder how is it that the 2019 sabres with a teenaged Jokiharju killing penalties and Risto leading the icetime on the PK have a PK efficiency of 80% and this current team can't get out of the bottom 3 league-wide in PK efficiency? It is because Krueger, as much as we all hated him, installed a team defensive zone structure and there was discipline.

Huh?

I present the 2010 Blackhawks and the 2009 Penguins...their best players (Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Letang). were in their early 20s. Kane/Toews were still on their ELC. The age of our core isn't the issue. The issue is we lack quality supporting veterans to the young core like they had. The opportunity to build around young players on their ELC is rapidly passing. In fact, we missed as opportunity last year while Cozens/Power were both on their ELC and we had 3 1st round picks. We could have rapidly improved through smart moves...well beyond what we saw this year. Now we have Power/Dahlin still relatively cheap and Quinn/Peterka on their ELC still....yet the time is to wait more? It's time to be bold.

Not even sure if you are serious.

2010 hawks coached by Quenneville were a 112 pt team with top 5 defensive metrics across the board and four future HoF players. The average age of their top 7 Defense was 27.3.

Sabres have one maybe future HoF if things go right, are currently a bottom 5 defensive team across the board, and the average age of their top 7 D last year was 23.4. The Sabres have 3 top 4 D that were younger than the Hawks youngest D that year.

There is a HUGE difference.

Penguins were basically the same thing. 4 future HoF players. Average age of their top 7 D was 30.3 years old.

Apples to Oranges.

 

[nickdawg95]

MS-Dahlin
Power-Bush
Johnson-Jokiharju

 

[Ace]

MS-Dahlin
Power-Bush
Johnson-Jokiharju

I hope the goalies are prime Hasek and Roy.

otherwise

13-Year
Playoff-Drought

 

[joshjull]

I don't see this as any more probable. What teams are giving up early on a young RHD with top 4 potential? I'd rather go after a guy like Borgen - lower cost and lower expectations but still capable of being a Power partner...right type of player even if not used as a true top-4 guy. The 3rd pair guy that can slot up and maybe become a Matt Roy in a year or so.

Edit - also the team needs some vets, not more guys that are just as young and inexperienced.

First off, fantastic exchange with @Irie. Lots of great points.

To the bolded ……… Adams has made it pretty clear through words and action (in on Chychrun) that he and Donny are not worried about handedness. They would be perfectly fine with a top 4 of all lefties. I bring this up because you’re correct that a young RHD with top 4 upside is unlikely to be available. Or would cost quite a lot if they were. But with the front office open to lefties to fill the need. It allows for more options and lowers the potential cost.

That said I agree with your edit. Adding experience on the blueline should be the focus (assuming another Chychrun type isn’t available). It doesn’t need to be a long term add or the forever partner for Power. Just a vet who brings the defensive acumen/play we need in the top 4 for the next 2 or 3 years. By then Power should have developed to the point he will be very good regardless of partner.

 

[Fjordy]

MS-Dahlin
Power-Bush
Johnson-Jokiharju

Boosh and Jokiharju not top 4 D. Adams should trade or sign in UFA top 4 D. Boosh, Joki and Stillman in the third pair.

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - xxxx
Stillman/Johnson - Joki/Boosh

 

[MOGlLNY]

I'm sorry but I just don't agree with Irie at all that now isn't the time to make moves. Just because the team can absolutely improve on their structure doesn't mean that this team needs to or should sit on their embarrassment of riches for another season (a good portion of them likely won't even hit) and not make an honest effort to improve their roster which does have holes.

Obtaining a top 4 defenseman isn't going to be a blockbuster deal.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I'm sorry but I just don't agree with Irie at all that now isn't the time to make moves. Just because the team can absolutely improve on their structure doesn't mean that this team needs to or should sit on their embarrassment of riches for another season (a good portion of them likely won't even hit) and not make an honest effort to improve their roster which does have holes.

Obtaining a top 4 defenseman isn't going to be a blockbuster deal.

Exactly this. Why is our bar so low that people are debating the merits of obtaining one top four defenseman? Whether that’s via FA or trade, the amount of assets we’re likely to spend isn’t going to kill us.

 

[Irie]

I'm sorry but I just don't agree with Irie at all that now isn't the time to make moves. Just because the team can absolutely improve on their structure doesn't mean that this team needs to or should sit on their embarrassment of riches for another season (a good portion of them likely won't even hit) and not make an honest effort to improve their roster which does have holes.

Obtaining a top 4 defenseman isn't going to be a blockbuster deal.

Exactly this. Why is our bar so low that people are debating the merits of obtaining one top four defenseman? Whether that’s via FA or trade, the amount of assets we’re likely to spend isn’t going to kill us.

For the record, I never said it was too early for upgrades.

I said it is too early to move a lot of assets for targeted vets to make a cup push.

On the subject of upgrades, I said it was not dire to get that huge piece now, and that unless the targeted player is younger with term, they should not spend huge assets to acquire them. (I also said cheaper stop gaps are fine until the right player is available, implying temp fix moves would still be a good idea, just don't make a huge trade just to make a trade, make sure it is a really good fit before moving multiple firsts in value).

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

So you think Joker is an established top 4 all situations dman? You think Joker would have gotten top 4 minutes in 2020-21 playing for a team other than the last place Sabres?

So you think Girgensons was a real 1C since he played 1C minutes for the Sabres in 2014-15? You think Girgensons 2014-15 comparables were Crosby, Backstrom and Tavares?

Or are you a reasonable person who see's that when a prospect is thrown into a position over their head, that it doesn't actually mean they are a 1C or Top 4 dman yet despite playing the minutes?

I don't think it's a stretch to say that on basically any other team in 2020-21, that Joker would have been a 6/7 dman trying to establish himself, just like Foote. Instead he was one of the top 4 dmen on a team that went on an 18 game winless streak.

This one of those posts that made me stop caring about the research I put into my posts. There’s no facts, no stats, nothing reasonable is argued, poster than says you’re the unreasonable one if you disagree with their genius position and backs it up by making the most unreasonable claims possible about the opposing opinion.

This is a political ad for party line voters not a forum post.

 

[joshjull]

So you think Joker is an established top 4 all situations dman? You think Joker would have gotten top 4 minutes in 2020-21 playing for a team other than the last place Sabres?

So you think Girgensons was a real 1C since he played 1C minutes for the Sabres in 2014-15? You think Girgensons 2014-15 comparables were Crosby, Backstrom and Tavares?

Or are you a reasonable person who see's that when a prospect is thrown into a position over their head, that it doesn't actually mean they are a 1C or Top 4 dman yet despite playing the minutes?

No I don’t and didn’t argue that he was. I’ve been describing how he was USED. Which was as a top 4 all situations dman. Whether either of us feel he should have been doesn‘t change that fact that he was.

That usage is why he's not a comparable to Foote. Who was used as a 6/7 dman. The charts you posted are comparing apples to oranges. This should be fairly obvious.

I’ve been arguing for some time that Joker was in over his head and any evaluation has to take this into account. You acknowledge it but don’t really incorporate it into your evaluation.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that on basically any other team in 2020-21, that Joker would have been a 6/7 dman trying to establish himself, just like Foote. Instead he was one of the top 4 dmen on a team that went on an 18 game winless streak.

Where he’s used by any team would hinge on the make up of their defense. He currently doesn‘t fit in our top 4 because we have two far superior transition/offensive players ahead of him.

You're not suggesting that the charts you posted are evidence he’s a 6/7 dman?

No idea why you think the 18gm losing streak matters.

 

[TommyDangles]

Huh?

I present the 2010 Blackhawks and the 2009 Penguins...their best players (Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Letang). were in their early 20s. Kane/Toews were still on their ELC. The age of our core isn't the issue. The issue is we lack quality supporting veterans to the young core like they had. The opportunity to build around young players on their ELC is rapidly passing. In fact, we missed as opportunity last year while Cozens/Power were both on their ELC and we had 3 1st round picks. We could have rapidly improved through smart moves...well beyond what we saw this year. Now we have Power/Dahlin still relatively cheap and Quinn/Peterka on their ELC still....yet the time is to wait more? It's time to be bold.

Being bold is how you end up as the Sens. No 1st rounders, bloated cap, and still no playoffs. The Summer of Dorion baby. This isn't NHL 23. Just throwing assets around isn't guaranteed to make your team better.

I'm amazed that people think trading for 1 or 2 players is going to magically turn us into a cup contender overnight.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Being bold is how you end up as the Sens. No 1st rounders, bloated cap, and still no playoffs. The Summer of Dorion baby. This isn't NHL 23. Just throwing assets around isn't guaranteed to make your team better.

I'm amazed that people think trading for 1 or 2 players is going to magically turn us into a cup contender overnight.

No being bold isn’t how you end up as the sens. Failing at being bold is how you end up as the sens. I think it’s interesting that you point throwing assets doesn’t guarantee you anything but don’t point out that not doing anything doesn’t guarantee you anything or that throwing around assets could win you something.

 

[Fjordy]

Philadelphia is ready to listen to offers for the trade Carter Hart.

This was announced by GM of the team Daniel Briere.

Thoughts?

 

[TommyDangles]

No being bold isn’t how you end up as the sens. Failing at being bold is how you end up as the sens. I think it’s interesting that you point throwing assets doesn’t guarantee you anything but don’t point out that not doing anything doesn’t guarantee you anything or that throwing around assets could win you something.

Sens got praised for all their moves. Most of the people complaining here wanted us to make the exact same moves. The same people that said the Sens & Wings would be above us in the standings.

"that not doing anything doesn’t guarantee you anything" Who said anything about doing nothing lol? When have we done nothing? What a pointless thing to say. We're talking about doing something BOLD. Like signing Taylor Hall. Fans that want their Summer of Kevyn Adams like the Summer of Dorion...

"throwing around assets could win you something." That's been the approach of the last few GMs and what have we won?

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think as a start, Olofsson with 50% retained for Petry is a good move going into the draft.

 

[Club]

Philadelphia is ready to listen to offers for the trade Carter Hart.

This was announced by GM of the team Daniel Briere.

Thoughts?

I'd call

Curious when this was "announced" though

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Sens got praised for all their moves. Most of the people complaining here wanted us to make the exact same moves. The same people that said the Sens & Wings would be above us in the standings.

"that not doing anything doesn’t guarantee you anything" Who said anything about doing nothing lol? When have we done nothing? What a pointless thing to say. We're talking about doing something BOLD. Like signing Taylor Hall. Fans that want their Summer of Kevyn Adams like the Summer of Dorion...

"throwing around assets could win you something." That's been the approach of the last few GMs and what have we won?

TB makes a ton of moves. What did they win?

Also the middle paragraph was exactly my point. The fact that you thought it was pointless shows how poorly you’ve thought out this position.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

I think as a start, Olofsson with 50% retained for Petry is a good move going into the draft.

I don't see the fit at all from Pittsburgh's perspective.

 

[Djp]

I'm sorry but I just don't agree with Irie at all that now isn't the time to make moves. Just because the team can absolutely improve on their structure doesn't mean that this team needs to or should sit on their embarrassment of riches for another season (a good portion of them likely won't even hit) and not make an honest effort to improve their roster which does have holes.

you don’t throw away your 1st round picks/ 1st round drsfted prospects

Obtaining a top 4 defenseman isn't going to be a blockbuster deal.

Yes a good enough D who can play with Power can be gotten without giving up the top 10 prospects

top 10 include
Savoie
23 1st
Kulich
Rosen
Johnson
Ostlund
PHL 2nd
G prospect drafted in 22 2nd round
add 2 from Rochester roster

No I don’t and didn’t argue that he was. I’ve been describing how he was USED. Which was as a top 4 all situations dman. Whether either of us feel he should have been doesn‘t change that fact that he was.

That usage is why he's not a comparable to Foote. Who was used as a 6/7 dman. The charts you posted are comparing apples to oranges. This should be fairly obvious.

I’ve been arguing for some time that Joker was in over his head and any evaluation has to take this into account. You acknowledge it but don’t really incorporate it into your evaluation.


Where he’s used by any team would hinge on the make up of their defense. He currently doesn‘t fit in our top 4 because we have two far superior transition/offensive players ahead of him.

You're not suggesting that the charts you posted are evidence he’s a 6/7 dman?

No idea why you think the 18gm losing streak matters.

Jokiharju is a top 4 Dman with the right partner and used properly.

 

[Ace]

Jokiharju is a top 4 Dman with the right partner and used properly.

He couldn’t play with Dahlin or Power. He turns over everything, doesn’t know how to find the right pass in the offensive zone, has a terrible point shot he won’t stop taking, loses his man consistently in his own end and wanders to the wrong side of the ice.

What usage and partner do you suggest?

Prime Lidstrom for 8 minutes a night all played in the neutral zone?

His own play has dictated he can’t do it. Not anything else. Not usage. Not partner. His own play. He makes bad decisions in both zones. He can’t do it.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Jokiharju is a top 4 Dman with the right partner and used properly.

Neither the eye test nor the numbers back this up in any way.

 

[Zman5778]

Jokiharju is a top 4 Dman with the right partner and used properly.

I was saying that all last offseason. I was saying that at the beginning of this past season.

I am no longer saying that. COULD he be a top 4 Dman in the NHL? Sure.....he's already shown that he can do that in spurts. But he's not consistent enough. His low moments are BAD.

A team with playoff aspirations could/should do better than Jokiharju as their #4 Dman.

 

[HOOats]

Yes a good enough D who can play with Power can be gotten without giving up the top 10 prospects

top 10 include
Savoie
23 1st
Kulich
Rosen
Johnson
Ostlund
PHL 2nd
G prospect drafted in 22 2nd round
add 2 from Rochester roster

Any non-rental precedent on this? A top 4 D who has some term and isn't ancient should cost assets from the bottom of your list. UFA-to-be Matt Roy apparently costs more than two 2nds if you ask Kings fans, so it will either be quantity or quality (and we have more than enough of both to make a deal).

 

[Ace]

Noted top 4 D Jokiharju cost a recent (at the time) 8th overall pick.