Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

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Kevyn Adams is a god damn bumbling disaster. How have Dahlin and Power not been signed yet? It's been 5 whole hours since Johnson signed!


hold on now, i dont even live in the area anymore and im pissed about this every time i come home for a holiday / to catch a game

I asked for "clean the bird shit off the seats". That was an issue the last time I was in the arena and I've heard it is still a problem.
 
Any chance johnson plays with Buffalo next season ?

All depends on what KA does with defense in the offseason.

As it stands RIGHT NOW, there'd be a 3-way battle between Johnson, Stillman and Bryson for the 3rd pair LHD spot.........with Johnson likely needing to be heads-and-shoulders better than Stillman and Bryson to stay up.

Of course, KA could decide to upgrade that spot and/or a top 4 defenseman.....which likely guarantees Johnson in Rochester.
 
All depends on what KA does with defense in the offseason.

As it stands RIGHT NOW, there'd be a 3-way battle between Johnson, Stillman and Bryson for the 3rd pair LHD spot.........with Johnson likely needing to be heads-and-shoulders better than Stillman and Bryson to stay up.

Of course, KA could decide to upgrade that spot and/or a top 4 defenseman.....which likely guarantees Johnson in Rochester.
And Savoie and Kulich up in Buffalo ? And what about rosen ? Any chance all 3 of them starts up ?
 
And Savoie and Kulich up in Buffalo ? And what about rosen ? Any chance all 3 of them starts up ?

Zero chance they all start in Buffalo. I really don't think Kulich starts in Buffalo, but will be an injury callup at some point. Rosen is definitely in Rochester to start the year.....maybe gets a callup late.

Savoie is the huge question -- it's either NHL or Winnipeg for him next year. He'll have to show he unquestionably belongs in the NHL. He very well could. I don't think it's likely....but he could.
 
You can list out the entire organization and there is still only those top 3 players that belong in an NHL top 4 anytime soon. They’re still missing the same piece right now that they’ve been missing the whole time. Maybe in 2-3 years that gets solved internally. What are we doing until then?

I don’t want to hear another round of not blocking prospects. None of the prospects are walking into a top 4 role this year. And time has long passed for winning not being a goal. And that involves preparing to win.

None of those top three have even reached the start of their prime yet.

You can continue to complain about the team having one hole in the top 4, but you can't act like it is some major issue that unless addressed right now will never be overcome moving forward. It is a crazy overreaction.

This team has time and they should wait for the right fit if they are going to blow a lot of assets on an acquisition.

Look at Tampa, they won a two cups with Hedman as their only homegrown defenseman.

Pittsburgh won a cup with Olli Maatta as the only home grown D playing a single playoff game for them.

In fact, I can't think of a cup champion in the cap era that had 4 homegrown top 4 D men on their cup runs.

Caps had Orpik and Niskanen
Kings had Greene and Mitchell (among others)
Hawks had Campbell and Sopel
Blues had Bouwmeester and Gunnarsson

With all the draft capital and young prospects Adams is accumulating, he should have both the assets to bring in a good fit, and still have a steady flow of ELC talent for years to fill the voids created as players hit UFA, but there is time. Look where the current team trajectory is and you should realize that the time to make huge vet acquisitions is not yet here.
 
With all the draft capital and young prospects Adams is accumulating, he should have both the assets to bring in a good fit, and still have a steady flow of ELC talent for years to fill the voids created as players hit UFA, but there is time. Look where the current team trajectory is and you should realize that the time to make huge vet acquisitions is not yet here.
I look at it as a window that opened last summer to start looking for a top-4 (preferably RHD Power-partner). That window is just as open now and will continue to be for at least the next season or two. The only reason that window closes without KA making a major move, is if Jokiharju suprises us. I'm a semi-optimistic fan and I like Jokiharju...but that's a bit unlikely.

So as opposed to a "wait for just the right time" mindset, I think of it as the clock is ticking so make a move when it presents itself (or you make the opportunity happen). KA can't expect to have that player available just when he/the team needs it most.
 
I look at it as a window that opened last summer to start looking for a top-4 (preferably RHD Power-partner). That window is just as open now and will continue to be for at least the next season or two. The only reason that window closes without KA making a major move, is if Jokiharju suprises us. I'm a semi-optimistic fan and I like Jokiharju...but that's a bit unlikely.

So as opposed to a "wait for just the right time" mindset, I think of it as the clock is ticking so make a move when it presents itself (or you make the opportunity happen). KA can't expect to have that player available just when he/the team needs it most.

My opinion is this team is no where near built to contend. Way too young/soft currently for the playoffs, and that does not even take into account that the coach has stated that he has not yet had time to install his defensive system.

The Team PKs in the low 70%. As long as stats have been kept, I do not believe a team with a PK below 75% has ever made the playoffs. Those are bare minimum numbers needed to get in, and teams that contend have much better PKs.

Looking up and down the lineup, the only players I feel that are likely playing at their prime level still is Skinner and Lyubushkin, and Okposo and Gus are in decline, but none of them are going to be the stars that win the cup for this team. Tuch is maybe close to hitting his peak, but he is still learning how to play a better two-way game and PK. Thompson is an offensive monster, but he is greener than astroturf when it comes to knowing how to efficiently play center in the NHL. Even if his numbers drop off, and I fully expect them to as he embraces more responsibility defensively, he will likely be a better asset to the team as a more complete player.

Quinn and Peterka are just pups. They were manhandled in the regular season, and are so not ready for playoff hockey. This team will need those secondary guys to be more physically mature and stronger in every area on the ice.

All of the D, with the exception of Lyubushkin are still learning and developing. They will all improve.
Adding a top 4 defender will improve the team, but it doesn't vault them into contender status. Time and growth from within will be the main factor to do that, and when they are truly ready to compete, Adams is going to have to make some tough decisions to replace some of the softer talent with playoff grit, physicality and intensity. So, while everyone agrees that a top 4 D is needed to improve this group now, I personally feel that it is not yet dire, and they aren't losing cup window years yet without a big move. Adams needs to get that move right so I am alright if he doesn't just go after the best player available now. Rather see low cost stop gaps until there is a great fit worthy of a huge acquisition cost - that will probably change once their window opens if he has still failed to address those needs though.
 
None of those top three have even reached the start of their prime yet.

You can continue to complain about the team having one hole in the top 4, but you can't act like it is some major issue that unless addressed right now will never be overcome moving forward. It is a crazy overreaction.

This team has time and they should wait for the right fit if they are going to blow a lot of assets on an acquisition.

Look at Tampa, they won a two cups with Hedman as their only homegrown defenseman.

Pittsburgh won a cup with Olli Maatta as the only home grown D playing a single playoff game for them.

Can we solve the 2nd pair D issue? absolutely

Has our GM shown he can identify and resolve roster needs? There is the problem.
In fact, I can't think of a cup champion in the cap era that had 4 homegrown top 4 D men on their cup runs.

Caps had Orpik and Niskanen
Kings had Greene and Mitchell (among others)
Hawks had Campbell and Sopel
Blues had Bouwmeester and Gunnarsson

With all the draft capital and young prospects Adams is accumulating, he should have both the assets to bring in a good fit,
and still have a steady flow of ELC talent for years to fill the voids created as players hit UFA, but there is time. Look where the current team trajectory is and you should realize that the time to make huge vet acquisitions is not yet here.

Until this ACTUALLY happens, being concerned about the issues being resolved are valid. Adams has had ample opportunities to resolve pressing issues with draft capital/prospects the last two seasons....he hasn't.
 
My opinion is this team is no where near built to contend. Way too young/soft currently for the playoffs, and that does not even take into account that the coach has stated that he has not yet had time to install his defensive system.

The Team PKs in the low 70%. As long as stats have been kept, I do not believe a team with a PK below 75% has ever made the playoffs. Those are bare minimum numbers needed to get in, and teams that contend have much better PKs.

Looking up and down the lineup, the only players I feel that are likely playing at their prime level still is Skinner and Lyubushkin, and Okposo and Gus are in decline, but none of them are going to be the stars that win the cup for this team. Tuch is maybe close to hitting his peak, but he is still learning how to play a better two-way game and PK. Thompson is an offensive monster, but he is greener than astroturf when it comes to knowing how to efficiently play center in the NHL. Even if his numbers drop off, and I fully expect them to as he embraces more responsibility defensively, he will likely be a better asset to the team as a more complete player.

Quinn and Peterka are just pups. They were manhandled in the regular season, and are so not ready for playoff hockey. This team will need those secondary guys to be more physically mature and stronger in every area on the ice.

All of the D, with the exception of Lyubushkin are still learning and developing. They will all improve.
Adding a top 4 defender will improve the team, but it doesn't vault them into contender status. Time and growth from within will be the main factor to do that, and when they are truly ready to compete, Adams is going to have to make some tough decisions to replace some of the softer talent with playoff grit, physicality and intensity. So, while everyone agrees that a top 4 D is needed to improve this group now, I personally feel that it is not yet dire, and they aren't losing cup window years yet without a big move. Adams needs to get that move right so I am alright if he doesn't just go after the best player available now. Rather see low cost stop gaps until there is a great fit worthy of a huge acquisition cost - that will probably change once their window opens if he has still failed to address those needs though.
I agree with much of this, but I don't think KA needs to wait until a legit Cup winning window opens up to acquire a top-4 D-man. I think that is a roster spot that is worth filling at any time after a re-build stage is over. For now that should be a mid-late 20s guy in his prime, but not necessarily a top-notch talent (ie - Matt Roy). If for some reason KA doesn't fill that spot for a few years (assuming Joker doesn't improve enough) then KA can look at 30-33 year old guys as more of a short-term or rental option when/if the team sees a true Cup winning window open up. I'd rather he find that guy sooner though.
 
Can we solve the 2nd pair D issue? absolutely

Has our GM shown he can identify and resolve roster needs? There is the problem.


Until this ACTUALLY happens, being concerned about the issues being resolved are valid. Adams has had ample opportunities to resolve pressing issues with draft capital/prospects the last two seasons....he hasn't.
Read post #1784

Once again, it comes down to timing, coaching, and team evaluation.

The time to jettison a lot of their assets for immediate help is not yet here,

No big decisions should be addressed until the coaching staff has implemented their defensive solution. That is step one.

The core is still extremely young, the cup window is not open yet. I won't argue that it wouldn't be nice to see Adams bring in a defensive solution, but the need to make that big move last year or this offseason is being greatly over-stated by you few here. Yes, we all want improvement. Yes, we all want to see those big changes soon. But Adams timeline and goals are all about the long-game, and as much as anyone wines and screams about how it has to be done now, the reality is that there is sill plenty of time to make those moves over the next couple of seasons as the window draws closer.
 
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Read post #1784

Once again, it comes down to timing, coaching, and team evaluation.

The time to jettison a lot of their assets for immediate help is not yet here,

No big decisions should be addressed until the coaching staff has implemented their defensive solution. That is step one.

The core is still extremely young, the cup window is not open yet. I won't argue that it wouldn't be nice to see Adams bring in a defensive solution, but the need to make that big move last year or this offseason is being greatly over-stated by you few here. Yes, we all want improvement. Yes, we all want to see those big changes soon. But Adams timeline and goals are all about the long-game, and as much as anyone wines and screams about how it has to be done now, the reality is that there is sill plenty of time to make those moves over the next couple of seasons as the window draws closer.
I'd do believe that the Chychrun trade talks show that KA is more than willing to add that top-4 guy now, and isn't waiting on a specific window to open up. That window is open now and includes a wider timeline than you suggest.
 
I agree with much of this, but I don't think KA needs to wait until a legit Cup winning window opens up to acquire a top-4 D-man. I think that is a roster spot that is worth filling at any time after a re-build stage is over. For now that should be a mid-late 20s guy in his prime, but not necessarily a top-notch talent (ie - Matt Roy). If for some reason KA doesn't fill that spot for a few years (assuming Joker doesn't improve enough) then KA can look at 30-33 year old guys as more of a short-term or rental option when/if the team sees a true Cup winning window open up. I'd rather he find that guy sooner though.

The problem with rushing out to acquire the top 4 solution is that young top 4 solutions that fit what the Sabres need are not available. Older vets on shorter term expiring contracts that could be solutions are available typically for a gross overpay. So going out and acquiring Roy now for a big futures package only to watch him walk in a year is extremely risky. If you trade for him with an extension agreed upon, that extension is going to be a gross overpay, as no late 20s top 4 D is going to sign an extension with Buffalo before playing a game in the city unless Adams is giving them a huge financial incentive to do so, which is probably a bad idea.

The best solution is the most difficult to pull off. Target a younger guy being under-utilizd or mis-deployed and acquire them at a moderate price and extend them. Requires good player evaluation.
 
There has been plenty of bottom 6/bottom 2 productive turnover in the last year. Eakin, Hayden, Asplund, Bjork, Butcher, Pysyk and more, played significant games and have been upgraded. Not sexy but effective.

We also know that Adams was in serious contention for Murray and Chyck.

It's shallow sighted to assert that Adams is somehow unaware or disconnected to roster needs or unable and unwilling to address them.
 
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The best solution is the most difficult to pull off. Target a younger guy being under-utilizd or mis-deployed and acquire them at a moderate price and extend them. Requires good player evaluation.
I don't see this as any more probable. What teams are giving up early on a young RHD with top 4 potential? I'd rather go after a guy like Borgen - lower cost and lower expectations but still capable of being a Power partner...right type of player even if not used as a true top-4 guy. The 3rd pair guy that can slot up and maybe become a Matt Roy in a year or so.

Edit - also the team needs some vets, not more guys that are just as young and inexperienced.
 
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I'd do believe that the Chychrun trade talks show that KA is more than willing to add that top-4 guy now, and isn't waiting on a specific window to open up. That window is open now and includes a wider timeline than you suggest.

Chychrun is an exception because he asked to be moved a couple of years ago. Players his age are not typically available, and when they are, they cost more than they are worth to acquire, which is why Adams did not pull the trigger.

If we are talking about the window to acquire another D, then I do agree that the window to upgrade should always be open, but there are conditions on those upgrades. The player has to have term and be of an age where they won't be in decline when the team's cup window opens.

The window to acquire such players and the must acquire by deadline are different. The "can acquire window" is always open, but the important "must acquire by" deadline will be dictated by the team's progress and the realistic chances that they are ready to contend for a cup

If we are talking about the window to compete for the cup already being open, then I strongly disagree for all of the reasons I posted in the post above.
 
I don't see this as any more probable. What teams are giving up early on a young RHD with top 4 potential? I'd rather go after a guy like Borgen - lower cost and lower expectations but still capable of being a Power partner...right type of player even if not used as a true top-4 guy. The 3rd pair guy that can slot up and maybe become a Matt Roy in a year or so.

Edit - also the team needs some vets, not more guys that are just as young and inexperienced.
The opportunity to identify Borgen as a potential steal to recquire was last offseason, and I was big on the reacquire Borgen train last summer after watching him down the stretch in Seattle paired a couple of times with Dunn. I felt he was the perfect fit to grow into Power's partner here, and it was obvious Hakstol has no idea what he had in Borgen. But now Borgen is in Seattle's top 4, and he played well down the stretch during their playoff push and throughout the first two rounds.

The only way he's available is if he asks for something unrealistic in his RFA contract demands this offseason. I think he and Dunn both file for arbitration, so we shall see, but that ship has likely sailed.
 
Chychrun is an exception because he asked to be moved a couple of years ago. Players his age are not typically available, and when they are, they cost more than they are worth to acquire, which is why Adams did not pull the trigger.

If we are talking about the window to acquire another D, then I do agree that the window to upgrade should always be open, but there are conditions on those upgrades. The player has to have term and be of an age where they won't be in decline when the team's cup window opens.

The window to acquire such players and the must acquire by deadline are different. The "can acquire window" is always open, but the important "must acquire by" deadline will be dictated by the team's progress and the realistic chances that they are ready to contend for a cup

If we are talking about the window to compete for the cup already being open, then I strongly disagree for all of the reasons I posted in the post above.
Doesn't matter how much of an exception the Chychrun trade is...KA was in on it and so he believes the time is now to add that type of player (and he's right). Of course any trade should be good value or not done, but the priority is there. That player acquisition window is now, and can only help the Cup winning window to open up sooner.

The opportunity to identify Borgen as a potential steal to recquire was last offseason, and I was big on the reacquire Borgen train last summer after watching him down the stretch in Seattle paired a couple of times with Dunn. I felt he was the perfect fit to grow into Power's partner here, and it was obvious Hakstol has no idea what he had in Borgen. But now Borgen is in Seattle's top 4, and he played well down the stretch during their playoff push and throughout the first two rounds.

The only way he's available is if he asks for something unrealistic in his RFA contract demands his season. I think he and Dunn both file for arbitration, so we shall see, but that ship has likely sailed.
Yes I agree Borgen is an unlikely target, but anyone in that "3rd pair but still room to improve" category is more likely to be available than a younger RHD with top-4 potential (not sure if that's EXACTLY the type of player you were referring to earlier).
 
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Doesn't matter how much of an exception the Chychrun trade is...KA was in on it and so he believes the time is now to add that type of player (and he's right). Of course any trade should be good value or not done, but the priority is there. That player acquisition window is now, and can only help the Cup winning window to open up sooner.
If you reread my post, you will see that I stated that upgrades that fit the teams timeline are always good ideas, there is no window on those.

But I do not believe Adams feels the Sabres cup Window is open this upcoming season, and I am pretty confident that his decisions are ultimately being influenced by his evaluation of the teams competitive timeline, that is why I do not expect to see older players brought in until the core is a bit older and more established.
 
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If you reread my post, you will see that I stated that upgrades that fit the teams timeline are always good ideas, there is no window on those.

But I do not believe Adams feels the Sabres cup Window is open this upcoming season, and I am pretty confident that his decisions are ultimately being influenced by his evaluation of the teams competitive timeline, that is why I do not expect to see older players brought in until the core is a bit older and more established.
I definitely agree that even if KA sees the need to add now, he won't necessarily feel any urgency to make a move.
 
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Yes I agree Borgen is an unlikely target, but anyone in that "3rd pair but still room to improve" category is more likely to be available than a younger RHD with top-4 potential (not sure if that's EXACTLY the type of player you were referring to earlier).

The players I meant are likely guys that are tweeners and have not had a lot of chances with other teams but maybe are due RFA raises in cap tight environments, or players that have been depth buried on other rosters. Toews was a great example with the Isles. Borgen being depth buried by the Kraken last season.

It requires exceptional evaluation. You have to look at the big picture and look into players strengths vs usage. Montour playing his offside was a good target for the Cats, as they likely saw something that Buffalo was not seeing. Those things happen within organizations, where players are labelled something they might not be, and the coaching staff stops seeing them in any other way. Montour was pretty good in Anaheim on the right, but in Buffalo, Miller and Risto were worse than Montour on the left, and due to the D makeup, Montour drew a lot of LHD time paired with Miller, Joker, or Risto, and he was a bit of a shell of himself vs RHD Montour.

I did claim that those types of finds are the most difficult, but they are the best when you can identify a player and acquire them and change their deployment and watch them breakout.
 
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Some of the defensive targets I’ve thought about and deals I’ve put in my head:


1.
To Winnipeg:
G- Ukko Pekka Luukonen
2023 2nd (Buf)

To Buffalo:
D- Dylan DeMelo

-this would be predicated on Hellebuyck being traded. Could be someone other than UPL if Jets keep Hellebuyck.

-to me it’s similar value to when Toews was dealt to Colorado (two 2nd’s). Could see Buffalo needing to add, but DeMelo is going into his final year so that may push the Jets to do something now.


2.
To Pittsburgh:
RW- Victor Olofsson

To Buffalo:
D- Jeff Petry

-Olofsson gives Pittsburgh a winger who can snipe from two of the best centers in the game. Could fit Pittsburgh’s style of play more as well if they try more on the cycle as opposed to being a rush team.

-Petry gives the Sabres a veteran minute eating d-man who has offensive panache.


3.

To Vegas:
2023 2nd Round Pick

To Buffalo:
D- Alec Martinez

-I like this for Buffalo but think it’s unlikely as Martinez has an NMC and has never been an east coast guy. People argue Vegas is in a crunch but they’ll be able to LTIR Lehner their way out of it.


4.
To Columbus:
D- Jacob Bryson
2023 2nd Round Pick

To Buffalo:
D- Andrew Peeke
 
You can list out the entire organization and there is still only those top 3 players that belong in an NHL top 4 anytime soon. They’re still missing the same piece right now that they’ve been missing the whole time. Maybe in 2-3 years that gets solved internally. What are we doing until then?

I don’t want to hear another round of not blocking prospects. None of the prospects are walking into a top 4 role this year. And time has long passed for winning not being a goal. And that involves preparing to win.
i think you won't hear it. KA , ate it all and stuck to his beliefs as this group learned to protect, one another , overcome questionable goal tending and essentially, grow up and toughen up to not be dominated in a room w any personality stronger then them..
The team is ready and pissed while they watch what might have been and what other teams failed to do.. I'm sure the team and ka are on same page completely and we outside don't know who's coming up that's better than a trade.. We'll see a team at training camp and definitely at the deadline ready to compete for the mountain as okposo describes.. i trust all around this.. we'll see..
 
The cup window and the playoffs are two different things. We need top 4 D to have more chances to reach the playoffs. The same can be said about the goalie. You can do everything gradually, and not just wait 3-5 years for prospects to grow and then maybe the cup window will open. First you go to the playoffs and then see what is missing to go to the playoffs further. We have a ton of assets and no one says that Adams should trade all our best assets for the top 4 D and goalie, he can do all this for little or even for free.
 
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