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Player Discussion Ryan Strome

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Oscar Lindberg said:
If he plays with good players, he can put up 45-50 points

If he's playing with average players, it's 25-30

He's fine for what he is, he's just not an exciting player. Hopefully they sell high on him
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So you're saying a player will produce playing with really good players? Wow. You can say that about almost anyone in this league outside of maybe 10 players.
 
True Blue said:
And that is my point. Is he a "driver"? No. But he can ride shotgun and not hurt the production of a line. Or he can be a good second liner . Or even call him a middle 6, player who has grit and who can play both wing and center, can slide up and play either position on the top line and can get 40-50 points. Are those type of players invaluable? Of course not. But do they have good value? Of course they do.
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Let me put it this way:

I dont think 20/50 playing with Panarin is far fetched. At all. And you throw in Zibs as the center? I would actually be shocked if he didn't get to 20/50.

But I dont know if he gets anywhere near 20/50 if he is not playing with Panarin. And the only evidence that maybe he can (as Edge just posted) seems to be last years production which was inflated by a crazy SH%, which is why people keep bouncing back to it.

I'm really not sure what he puts up on a decent 2nd or 3rd line.
 
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McRanger said:
Let me put it this way:

I dont think 20/50 playing with Panarin is far fetched. At all. And you throw in Zibs as the center? I would actually be shocked if he didn't get to 20/50.

But I dont know if he gets anywhere near 20/50 if he is not playing with Panarin. And the only evidence that maybe he can (as Edge just posted) seems to be last years production which was inflated by a crazy SH%, which is why people keep bouncing back to it.

I'm really not sure what he puts up on a decent 2nd or 3rd line.
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.... as been said... He was on pace for 20+ and 40+ playing with average to below average players last year.... over 63 games.

82games 23G 20A ... in the bottom 6..
 
Two things to consider, which really tend to get overlooked when we're talking about linemates, projections and shooting percentages, is that the same thing happening to Zibanejad is happening to Strome. Obviously on a significantly smaller scale, and without as much high-end skill to work with, but the same basic principle would apply.

Both guys are hitting their prime years, and at age 25/26 are coming into their own.

Both were high picks in the same draft, so there some skill that there lurking around that's helped them get this far.

If Zibanejad can go from 20 goals and 50 points to 30/70 or even 40/80 points with good linemates, it's really not that obscene to think Strome could go from 15/38 to 20/50+.

The concept of players coming into their own during their peak years isn't just reserved for the elite players, it trickles down and applies to the secondary guys as well.
 
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Edge said:
Two things to consider, which really tend to get overlooked when we're talking about linemates, projections and shooting percentages, is that the same thing happening to Zibanejad is happening to Strome. Obviously on a significantly smaller scale, and without as much high-end skill to work with, but the same basic principle would apply.

Both guys are hitting their prime years, and at age 25/26 are coming into their own.

Both were high picks in the same draft, so there some skill that there lurking around that's helped them get this far.

If Zibanejad can go from 20 goals and 50 points to 30/70 or even 40/80 points with good linemates, it's really not that obscene to think Strome could go from 15/38 to 20/50+.

The concept of players coming into their own during their peak years isn't just reserved for the elite players, it trickles down and applies to the secondary guys as well.
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Apparently, the name Brassard is a distant memory to some people. I'm not even a fan of Strome, especially long term. But, 1) Gorton got him for Spooner, and 2) if nothing else, he's building value.
 
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Edge said:
That's probably more relevant if people were arguing that they expect him to keep doing what he's doing. No one is actually arguing that though.

The debate isn't whether Strome is really a 30 goal/80 point player.

The debate is whether Strome is 20 goal/50 point player. And based off the last year, there are people who think he's about at that point.

That whole 20/50 plateau isn't that far-fetched when you look at the broader sampling of his career.

Basically, coming into this season, Strome's 82 game average was 15 goals and 38 points.

Since joining the Rangers, he's been on a 25 goal/50 point pace.

Even if the shooting percentage drops, splitting the difference between his Rangers performance at 25 and 26 years old, with his production when he was younger, would still put him at or around a 20 goal/45 point level.

So it's not like the concept of 20/50 is some pie in the sky fantasy. And if he can indeed hang in that zone, then that puts him in second line production territory.
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In 76 games with the Rangers he has 23 goals and 46 points. He's shooting 22.3%.

He's not coming back down to 20/50. He's coming back down from 20/50.
 
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jas said:
Apparently, the name Brassard is a distant memory to some people. I'm not even a fan of Strome, especially long term. But, 1) Gorton got him for Spooner, and 2) if nothing else, he's building value.
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I'm glad he's building value. Cash in on it instead of giving a contract to a middling player.

Brassard didn't exactly live up to his extension.
 
jas said:
Apparently, the name Brassard is a distant memory to some people. I'm not even a fan of Strome, especially long term. But, 1) Gorton got him for Spooner, and 2) if nothing else, he's building value.
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You know it's funny you should mention him. Earlier when I was doing a glance at Strome's career averages and how they compare to his time with the Rangers, I briefly looked up Brassard.

From 20 to 25, covering roughly the same age range as Strome's pre-Rangers experience, Brassard averaged 15 goals and 45 points per 82 games. So basically, the same amount of goals as Strome, but another 7 assists per season.

Contrary to how many people might remember things, Brassard's first full season in NY was actually about his career average to that point - 18 goals and 45 points. It didn't even mark a career high in points for him. Much like Strome, his career high actually came several years earlier, before he saw a several year dip.

It actually wasn't until his age 27 and 28 seasons that the numbers really started to reflect what would one ideally consider second line, or even 1 A/B type numbers.

And once he left NY, his numbers have fallen to about a 40 points/per 82 game level.

Point being, even if Strome shrinks back to his career shooting percentage, him hitting a higher level while with us wouldn't even be something that this fan base hasn't seen before. Again, even if he's overachieving, there's a lot of runway between 15g/38p and 30g/80p for for Strome to potentially hit. It doesn't have to be one or the other.
 
duhmetreE said:
.... as been said... He was on pace for 20+ and 40+ playing with average to below average players last year.... over 63 games.

82games 23G 20A ... in the bottom 6..
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... as has been said... He was only on pace for 20+ goals and 40+ points because he scored 18 goals with a 22.5% shooting percentage. You know how many players have scored 18 goals with that shooting percentage this century? 12. So if that is the only evidence that Strome can produce 20/50 without Panarin then there is no evidence. If he shoots anywhere near normal last season his numbers are basically Fast's numbers.
 
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McRanger said:
... as has been said... He was only on pace for 20+ goals and 40+ points because he scored 18 goals with a 22.5% shooting percentage. You know how many players have scored 18 goals with that shooting percentage this century? 12. So if that is the only evidence that Strome can produce 20/50 without Panarin then there is no evidence. If he shoots anywhere near normal last season his numbers are basically Fast's numbers.
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I don't even know why we're arguing the goal numbers. He's averaged 15 goals for his career, he scored 18 last year with a higher shooting percentage. We're arguing over 3 goals. Fine he goes back to normal and hits his career average.

Does it really matter if the end result is 15 goals/50 points as opposed to 20 goals/50 points? I mean let's even forget the goals for a second and say they hold constant for his career. He can't net an additional 12 assists to get to 50 points? Because his goal totals aren't the only thing trending up.
 
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McRanger said:
I'm really not sure what he puts up on a decent 2nd or 3rd line.
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Let's forget about the past for a bit. Not completely, but only to point out that comfort tends to matter to players. He was getting squat from whatever coaching staff there was in Edmonton. He was the 5OA pick , so it is not like he is without skill. Some players take longer to develop than others. Again, look no further than Todd Betuzzi (and in no way am I saying that Strome is Betuzzi 2.0). He get traded. Starts off on the bottom two lines. Changes his game to suit Quinn. Gets trust and comfort from the coaching staff. Obtains confidence and some of his old swagger back. Starts to put up points. Gets moved up in lines. Continues to put up points.

At this point, you are no longer looking at a sample size. You are looking at basically an entire year. He shows no regression since last year. No one is saying he is an elite player. But has his production and eye test play shown him to be a second liner? Right now I would say yes. But let's wait to see what unfolds for the next several months.
 
True Blue said:
Let's forget about the past for a bit. Not completely, but only to point out that comfort tends to matter to players. He was getting squat from whatever coaching staff there was in Edmonton. He was the 5OA pick , so it is not like he is without skill. Some players take longer to develop than others. Again, look no further than Todd Betuzzi (and in no way am I saying that Strome is Betuzzi 2.0). He get traded. Starts off on the bottom two lines. Changes his game to suit Quinn. Gets trust and comfort from the coaching staff. Obtains confidence and some of his old swagger back. Starts to put up points. Gets moved up in lines. Continues to put up points.

At this point, you are no longer looking at a sample size. You are looking at basically an entire year. He shows no regression since last year. No one is saying he is an elite player. But has his production and eye test play shown him to be a second liner? Right now I would say yes. But let's wait to see what unfolds for the next several months.
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Like I said, at the very least he's on the cusp and in that conversation. I mean even cutting the shooting percent in half would still still have him in that 15-17 goal range, and if he plays with better players should still have him in the 30+ assist range, even if the weird shooting percent returns to normal.

The concept of a 26 year old forward being better than he was at 23 or 24 is plausible. I don't think being 12 points better, be it as a result of more goals, more assists, or a combination of the two, is really that crazy of thing.
 
Edge said:
I don't even know why we're arguing the goal numbers. He's averaged 15 goals for his career, he scored 18 last year with a higher shooting percentage. We're arguing over 3 goals. Fine he goes back to normal and hits his career average.

Does it really matter if the end result is 15 goals/50 points as opposed to 20 goals/50 points? I mean let's even forget the goals for a second and say they hold constant for his career. He can't net an additional 12 assists to get to 50 points? Because his goal totals aren't the only thing trending up.
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Well the discussion was about how his 18 goals and 15 assists over 62 games extrapolates to 23 goals and 20 assists over 82 games which is where the "he can get 20+ goals and 40+ points away from Panarin" thing seems to come from. Except its crazy to expect him to shoot that high so you are probably looking at something like 15 goals and 20 assists over 82 games which basically puts him in league with Fast more in the "bad middle six production" category than the "good middle six production" category.

But this is just about what happens AWAY from Panarin, not with him.
 
McRanger said:
Well the discussion was about how his 18 goals and 15 assists over 62 games extrapolates to 23 goals and 20 assists over 82 games which is where the "he can get 20+ goals and 40+ points away from Panarin" thing seems to come from. Except its crazy to expect him to shoot that high so you are probably looking at something like 15 goals and 20 assists over 82 games which basically puts him in league with Fast more in the "bad middle six production" category than the "good middle six production" category.

But this is just about what happens AWAY from Panarin, not with him.
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I don't know, I really think the gap we're talking about isn't a chasm.

Let's even take Panarin out of the equation.

Between 20 and 25 years old, Strome average 15 goals and 38 points per 82 games.

Is it really that weird to think that maybe two extra goals and 12 additional points is possible at age 26, on a more balanced offense, even if he isn't playing with Panarin? We don't think 26 year old Strome on the Rangers is capable of 12 more points than the earlier version?

I mean most people would consider 17 goals and 50 points to be second line production, and we're talking about an additional 12 points. That's it. And he's actually already done it once before.

He was at 45 point pace last year year without Panarin. I don't think we're talking about an impossible continuation of that, even if takes into account his shooting percentage being high and relies on being heavier on assists than goals.
 
True Blue said:
Let's forget about the past for a bit. Not completely, but only to point out that comfort tends to matter to players. He was getting squat from whatever coaching staff there was in Edmonton. He was the 5OA pick , so it is not like he is without skill. Some players take longer to develop than others. Again, look no further than Todd Betuzzi (and in no way am I saying that Strome is Betuzzi 2.0). He get traded. Starts off on the bottom two lines. Changes his game to suit Quinn. Gets trust and comfort from the coaching staff. Obtains confidence and some of his old swagger back. Starts to put up points. Gets moved up in lines. Continues to put up points.

At this point, you are no longer looking at a sample size. You are looking at basically an entire year. He shows no regression since last year. No one is saying he is an elite player. But has his production and eye test play shown him to be a second liner? Right now I would say yes. But let's wait to see what unfolds for the next several months.
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Tough to say. He passes the eye test with Panarin, I think. Its hard to know because Panarin is so freakishly gifted offensively. I'm not even sure it matters. If it work, it works.

But before Panarin? He looked awful with Kreider and Kakko (all 3 looked awful, so that not just on him) to start the year and honestly aside from him popping up on the scoresheet a lot he never really stood out for me offensively much last year.

So yeah I am also interested in seeing how this all plays out.
 
As long as he continues to put up points so that the center position after Mika is not a complete black hole to the the extent that we feared it might be I'm happy to have him. He'll be a good trade chip at the deadline. In an ideal situation Chytil progresses this year so that once Strome's gone the transition from one 2C to the other is relatively smooth. But that's a long way from now so I'm just glad to see him producing.
 
Edge said:
I don't even know why we're arguing the goal numbers. He's averaged 15 goals for his career, he scored 18 last year with a higher shooting percentage. We're arguing over 3 goals. Fine he goes back to normal and hits his career average.

Does it really matter if the end result is 15 goals/50 points as opposed to 20 goals/50 points? I mean let's even forget the goals for a second and say they hold constant for his career. He can't net an additional 12 assists to get to 50 points? Because his goal totals aren't the only thing trending up.
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He used to be somewhat of a volume shooter. Last year he shot at the rate of Joe Thornton. He's not scoring 15 goals/year with that sort of shot rate unless he runs these insanely high shooting percentages.

The 10 forwards with lower 5v5 shot rates then him last year scored: 4, 0, 1, 10, 11, 1, 4, 5, 6, 4 goals at 5v5. A combined total of 46 goals in 716 games (5.3 goals per 82).
 
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Edge said:
I don't know, I really think the gap we're talking about isn't a chasm.

Let's even take Panarin out of the equation.

Between 20 and 25 years old, Strome average 15 goals and 38 points per 82 games.

Is it really that weird to think that maybe two extra goals and 12 additional points is possible at age 26, on a more balanced offense, even if he isn't playing with Panarin? We don't think 26 year old Strome on the Rangers is capable of 12 more points than the earlier version?

I mean most people would consider 17 goals and 50 points to be second line production, and we're talking about an additional 12 points. That's it. And he's actually already done it once before.

He was at 45 point pace last year year without Panarin. I don't think we're talking about an impossible continuation of that, even if takes into account his shooting percentage being high and relies on being heavier on assists than goals.
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Its not a chasm, but you are talking about a jump in production from closer to a Hagelin to closer to a Kreider. Which is a pretty decent jump. For non stars 50 points is hard to get without a lot of TOI including the PP. Unless he lands on PP1 you are probably talking about 40 ES points which is more production than we ever got from Hayes and production we only got once from Brassard and Stepan in career years.

So I dont know. I guess we'll find out if Quinn ever shuffles the lines. Or maybe we'll get lucky and not find out because he just keeps crushing it Panarin.
 
mschmidt64 said:
Strome and Panarin seem to be clicking. So much so that I think when Zibanejad is back, you go Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich and Panarin-Strome-Kakko.
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They should, or Chytil there, as playing Zibanejad with Panarin never made any sense from the start.
 
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