Player Discussion Ryan Strome

[Filthy Dangles]

NHL 2015-16 points average by position

During the 15-16 season, average 2nd line center scored 48 points. With scoring going up league wide lately, 50 points seems about right.

I think you're missing the point about Strome riding a hot shooting % though. You can't expect him to score at the pace he's on going forward. Even if he has a 50 point season, he likely goes back to the 30-35 points next year, considering he'll be on a team with hypotehtically less of a role.

 

[True Blue]

Strome has 23 goals in 81 games as a Ranger. Shooting 22.3% (103 shot taken - 15.7% at 5v5 alone). Why don't we take a look at all players who have shot at least 20% on 100 shot attempts and then see how they did on their next 100? Someone already did this a few years ago (it was when Athanasiou was holding out) though I don't remember where to find it and the result, obviously, is that they almost always go back down to normal levels.

Again, I do not think that you can blindly point to the shooting percentage without taking into account who his linemates are, what time he is playing and what opportunities are arising from it. How much power play time is he getting? How much more time is he playing now than when he played in Edmonton? And who is he skating with? Yes, his shooting percentage may be higher, could it not be higher because he is benefiting from more PP time and with better line mates?

But as Edge points out, he was playing at this pace already last year, when playing on 3rd & 4th lines.

 

[True Blue]

I think you're missing the point about Strome riding a hot shooting % though. You can't expect him to score at the pace he's on going forward. Even if he has a 50 point season, he likely goes back to the 30-35 points next year, considering he'll be on a team with hypotehtically less of a role.

Why presume that with better linemates, he still regresses? He has been at this level for virtually a year.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Maybe the guy just found a team where he's clicked with his coach or line mates or he feels comfortable in his role. It's not all math. We spend so much time analyzing why a guy is or isn't performing to a specific data point or stat that we lose sight of the fact he's a human being and certain intangibles factor into their performance. Some of you make it sound like it'd be a disaster if he scores 25 goals this year.

 

[Raspewtin]

Again, I do not think that you can blindly point to the shooting percentage without taking into account who his linemates are, what time he is playing and what opportunities are arising from it. How much power play time is he getting? How much more time is he playing now than when he played in Edmonton? And who is he skating with? Yes, his shooting percentage may be higher, could it not be higher because he is benefiting from more PP time and with better line mates?

But as Edge points out, he was playing at this pace already last year, when playing on 3rd & 4th lines.

There's nothing "blind" about shooting percentage. It is literally ahistorical to shoot at the rate Strome is. The greatest shooters in NHL history do not shoot at the rate he's done on this stretch. No linemates in the NHL today will put you at that rate. You can either accept that his rate is unsustainable and that he will need to bring more value elsewhere when this dries up or you can keep lying to yourself that he's on pace to be the greatest shooter in hockey history.

 

[Machinehead]

Wayne Gretzky shot 20% in 9 seasons with the Oilers. One of the greatest pure shooters ever in the worst era for goaltending in NHL history.

Strome is shooting higher than that.

 

[East Coast Bias]

I don't think that you can look at that stat with blinders on (not saying you are per se). Other factors come into play. Who are his linemates? What kind of usage is he getting? On what time is he playing? If all of those go in your favor, it should not be shocking to see production increase.

Right I agree with that. I'm not convinced it's sustainable though.

He has put up 23 goals on 103 shots. With more ice time. Reviewing some other players stats on shooting %, TOI, etc that is a huge outlayer. Not just b/c the shooting % is elite, but because the shots total is really really low for that TOI.

For now it's fine. He's playing well and helping this team in a spot they really need. But I wouldn't be comfortable paying him like a 2nd line scorer. Would you shell out 4 years 20m for him? 4m a year? What would you think he'd get on his next deal?

 

[McRanger]

Again, I do not think that you can blindly point to the shooting percentage without taking into account who his linemates are, what time he is playing and what opportunities are arising from it. How much power play time is he getting? How much more time is he playing now than when he played in Edmonton? And who is he skating with? Yes, his shooting percentage may be higher, could it not be higher because he is benefiting from more PP time and with better line mates?

But as Edge points out, he was playing at this pace already last year, when playing on 3rd & 4th lines.

Zibanejad seeing his S% go up from 12.7 to 14.8 which is about a 16% jump is probably a normal increase you'd expect from playing with Panarin.

Strome seeing his S% to go up to 22 which is about a 200% jump from his best year and 300% jump from his career shooting percentage is probably a fluke.

86 times over the past decade a player has scored at least 15 goals with a shooting percentage of 18 or higher and that is counting certain players multiple times. And its even rarer for it to be repeated.

So Strome has either hit a new level or this is a fluke.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

NHL 2015-16 points average by position

During the 15-16 season, average 2nd line center scored 48 points. With scoring going up league wide lately, 50 points seems about right.

I think you're missing the point about Strome riding a hot shooting % though. You can't expect him to score at the pace he's on going forward. Even if he has a 50 point season, he likely goes back to the 30-35 points next year, considering he'll be on a team with hypotehtically less of a role.

How do you go about factoring in assists? What if he goes 18-32 next season. It's 50 points. Are they worth less because he only scored 18 goals?

 

[True Blue]

Wayne Gretzky shot 20% in 9 seasons with the Oilers. One of the greatest pure shooters ever in the worst era for goaltending in NHL history.

Strome is shooting higher than that.

Do you want me to tell you that he is going to be an 80 point scorer, which is where is trending right now? Of course he isn't. However, if you look at what he HAS done for basically a year, claiming that he does not have it in him to be a 50 point scorer is disingenuous.

 

[SA16]

Again, I do not think that you can blindly point to the shooting percentage without taking into account who his linemates are, what time he is playing and what opportunities are arising from it. How much power play time is he getting? How much more time is he playing now than when he played in Edmonton? And who is he skating with? Yes, his shooting percentage may be higher, could it not be higher because he is benefiting from more PP time and with better line mates?

But as Edge points out, he was playing at this pace already last year, when playing on 3rd & 4th lines.

You can not think that but you'd be wrong for doing so.

 

[True Blue]

There's nothing "blind" about shooting percentage. It is literally ahistorical to shoot at the rate Strome is. The greatest shooters in NHL history do not shoot at the rate he's done on this stretch. No linemates in the NHL today will put you at that rate.

Does playing on the top two lines increase your likelihood to score, yes or no? Does playing on the PP more than you have in your career increase the opportunities to score more, yes or now? If yes, than naturally will not your scoring percentage increase?

Again, I am not going down the road to say that he will maintain this level. But I am also a bit dubious of claims that his production will suddenly stop and he will return to being who he was in Edmonton. By simply examining quantitative stats, you are completely ignoring qualitative ones that can have an impact on a player.

You can either accept that his rate is unsustainable and that he will need to bring more value elsewhere when this dries up or you can keep lying to yourself that he's on pace to be the greatest shooter in hockey history.

Why does it have to be so black and white? Why do you feel the need to simply write him off as an also ran based on one statistic which does not take other factors into consideration? To me is just not the way to examine a player.

Is he going to continue to score at such a clip? No. But that does not mean that his production will suddenly take a 40-50% reduction.

I am not saying he is untradeable. Everyone is. But to simply ignore that has gone on for close to a year as worthless is not seeing the forest through the trees.

 

[True Blue]

So Strome has either hit a new level or this is a fluke.

Or as always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

 

[True Blue]

Right I agree with that. I'm not convinced it's sustainable though.

He has put up 23 goals on 103 shots. With more ice time. Reviewing some other players stats on shooting %, TOI, etc that is a huge outlayer. Not just b/c the shooting % is elite, but because the shots total is really really low for that TOI.

For now it's fine. He's playing well and helping this team in a spot they really need. But I wouldn't be comfortable paying him like a 2nd line scorer. Would you shell out 4 years 20m for him? 4m a year? What would you think he'd get on his next deal?

It is not sustainable. That much we can agree on. However, not sustainable at that level does not mean falling off a cliff.

What would I do? First of all, I would see how the rest of the year goes. Second, I would absolutely see what other teams are offering for him. Third, I would look to see how Buchnevich looks around the deadline. Lastly, if the factors play in his favor, and he is a versatile 25 goal, 50 point player, signing him to a $4x4 would just be good business. But again, there is a lot of season left and there are other factors that come into play.

Do not discount the real possibility that Strome also realized that he is finally in an organization and a coaching staff that trusts him and has confidence in him. That is the first time that has happened. That may well factor into how much he is willing to take from the Rangers.

 

[True Blue]

You can not think that but you'd be wrong for doing so.

That is your opinion and you are welcome to it, but in my experience simply pointing to one stat as the sole evidence of your case is not the way to make a proper evaluation.

 

[Machinehead]

Do you want me to tell you that he is going to be an 80 point scorer, which is where is trending right now? Of course he isn't. However, if you look at what he HAS done for basically a year, claiming that he does not have it in him to be a 50 point scorer is disingenuous.

So then you agree that we can just blindly proclaim his shooting percentage will come down.

 

[McRanger]

Or as always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Oh what he is almost certainly falls in the middle. Absolutely. Scoring leader boards aren't divided between star players and crap players who are lucky.

 

[True Blue]

So then you agree that we can just blindly proclaim his shooting percentage will come down.

You can so proclaim, but you cannot blindly proclaim that his production will fall off a cliff or that he cannot have the production of a second line player. Or you could, but that would again be erroneously making assumptions based on a single statistic and not taking anything else into consideration.

 

[McRanger]

So then you agree that we can just blindly proclaim his shooting percentage will come down.

It will come down eventually. Maybe it will happen after we trade him?

 

[Machinehead]

It will come down eventually. Maybe it will happen after we trade him?

Best case scenario tbh

 

[True Blue]

Oh what he is almost certainly falls in the middle. Absolutely. Scoring leader boards aren't divided between star players and crap players who are lucky.

And that is my point. Is he a "driver"? No. But he can ride shotgun and not hurt the production of a line. Or he can be a good second liner . Or even call him a middle 6, player who has grit and who can play both wing and center, can slide up and play either position on the top line and can get 40-50 points. Are those type of players invaluable? Of course not. But do they have good value? Of course they do.

 

[Edge]

Wayne Gretzky shot 20% in 9 seasons with the Oilers. One of the greatest pure shooters ever in the worst era for goaltending in NHL history.

Strome is shooting higher than that.

That's probably more relevant if people were arguing that they expect him to keep doing what he's doing. No one is actually arguing that though.

The debate isn't whether Strome is really a 30 goal/80 point player.

The debate is whether Strome is 20 goal/50 point player. And based off the last year, there are people who think he's about at that point.

That whole 20/50 plateau isn't that far-fetched when you look at the broader sampling of his career.

Basically, coming into this season, Strome's 82 game average was 15 goals and 38 points.

Since joining the Rangers, he's been on a 25 goal/50 point pace.

Even if the shooting percentage drops, splitting the difference between his Rangers performance at 25 and 26 years old, with his production when he was younger, would still put him at or around a 20 goal/45 point level.

So it's not like the concept of 20/50 is some pie in the sky fantasy. And if he can indeed hang in that zone, then that puts him in second line production territory.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

If he plays with good players, he can put up 45-50 points

If he's playing with average players, it's 25-30

He's fine for what he is, he's just not an exciting player. Hopefully they sell high on him

 

[duhmetreE]

If he plays with good players, he can put up 45-50 points

If he's playing with average players, it's 25-30

He's fine for what he is, he's just not an exciting player. Hopefully they sell high on him

He scored at a 40pt pace last year... With average to below average players.

His pace this year is unsustainable, as I don't see him having a better year than Zibs had last year.... Or maybe he does...

His shot% is high because of his high IQ/hockey-sense. He's always in the right position. The puck always seems to 'find him'. He's not a 'shooter'. For that reason, his shot% will remain high, high teens-low twenties.. It seems fluky because you can't analyze IQ/gamesense with advanced stats.

Watch the games. Use advanced stats to corroborate what is seen. I feel some use Advanced Stats and come in with preconceived notions. There's anomalies and variations in numbers. It's not final. There's no objectivity with some.

 

[Edge]

If he plays with good players, he can put up 45-50 points

If he's playing with average players, it's 25-30

He's fine for what he is, he's just not an exciting player. Hopefully they sell high on him

But isn't 25-30 kind of disingenuous considering that Strome has never produced that poorly over an 82 game schedule? Even the two seasons when he posted 28 points and 30 points where seasons in which he played 71 and 69 games. And isn't somewhat reasonable to say that his point totals at 25/26 arguably could be higher than when he was 22 or 23, and not lower?