Player Discussion Ryan Strome

[DanielBrassard]

I think it's a red flag if you're expecting him to score 30+ goals.

If you accept something closer to his career norm, and somewhere in the ballpark of 15-20 goals, not so much.

He's shot 22.3% as a Ranger scoring 23 goals in basically a full season. If his SH% is cut in half which it would still be higher than his career sh% he becomes a 12 goal scorer. So assuming he reverts to a somewhat reasonable sh% even 15-20 goals would be too high of an expectation unless he starts shooting the puck more.

 

[True Blue]

He's shot 22.3% as a Ranger scoring 23 goals in basically a full season. If his SH% is cut in half which it would still be higher than his career sh% he becomes a 12 goal scorer. So assuming he reverts to a somewhat reasonable sh% even 15-20 goals would be too high of an expectation unless he starts shooting the puck more.

But again, this is doing three things: 1) making a decision based upon one statistic 2) ignoring every qualitative factors as if they did not exist & 3) presuming that he cannot grow as a player at 25/26 than he did at 22/23.

That is a fallacy.

 

[Thirty One]

What people are missing is that he's shooting 21.7% in only 14 games. Prorate that over 82 games and he should easily finish the year at above 120%.

 

[DanielBrassard]

But again, this is doing three things: 1) making a decision based upon one statistic 2) ignoring every qualitative factors as if they did not exist & 3) presuming that he cannot grow as a player at 25/26 than he did at 22/23.

That is a fallacy.

I'm not making a decision just based on his individual SH%, there are plenty of other data points that show it's reasonable to assume he won't continue the level of production he's put up since he got here. What I am doing is pointing out that the surmising that he could be a 20 goal and 50 point player as you and Edge specifically have suggested is even unlikely because despite him maybe somehow taking his game to another level, the odds that he would magically be able to double his own SH% as well as his on-ice shooting % is improbable at best. I haven't seen anything to suggest that he's all of a sudden become a different player than he was before he became a Ranger that would point to him changing his production profile other than sky-high shooting percentages. Maybe he has figured out the secret that no one else has.

 

[OrlandK]

The naysayers on Strome are ridiculous. We were told the Rangers should dump him because his performance last season was unsustainable. Now he is even better; but the same argument is being trotted out. Have you guys watched him play? He is a very heady hockey player with good hands. Take the advanced stats for what they are - one indicator among several. Doubling down when wrong last season to be even wronger is not the way to go. Will he continue his point a game production - unlikely. To say won't get to 50 points a season is silly. He clearly is that - the eye test counts for something too.

Another factor worth considering - is that his brother Dylan has followed a similar trajectory - very high draft pick who disappointed and was traded. Found another level and is performing well - like Ryan. Given that we will be lucky to get one decent bottom 6 center between Lias and Howden it wouldn't be a bad idea to sign Ryan now for a somewhat reasonable 3 or 4 year contract for say 4.5 per. Would only take him thru his prime years.

 

[True Blue]

I'm not making a decision just based on his individual SH%, there are plenty of other data points that show it's reasonable to assume he won't continue the level of production he's put up since he got here.

NO ONE is arguing that his current level of production is sustainable for him. NO ONE.

What I am doing is pointing out that the surmising that he could be a 20 goal and 50 point player as you and Edge specifically have suggested is even unlikely because despite him maybe somehow taking his game to another level, the odds that he would magically be able to double his own SH% as well as his on-ice shooting % is improbable at best.

He can very be a 20 goal/50 point player without such a high shooting percentage. But only looking at the percentage is completley ignoring where he is playing and the types of situations that he is playing in. And where he is shooting from. These are all factors that can have an impact on a shooting percentage.

What solely focusing on shooting percentage is doing is also completely ignoring overall points as those factor in assists. Or are we now going to correlate those with the shooting percentage as well? Looat at the assist that he has this year. I know, I know, it is all because of Panarin. Are we going to penalize him because he made a few good moves and got a good pass over to an elite player who buried it? Again, find me one team that would not say that they would sign up for a 15 goal, 30 assist player who is 6th on the depth chart so to speak and that can move from wing to center with ease?

Look at his career and where he has ALREADY been with points. You are making it sound like for Strome to get 20 goals/30 assists is some sort of unrealistic mountain. Just look at what he has already done and look at what he has done in pretty much close to a year already.

When did it become impossible for a player to improve at the ripe old age of 25 under the right circumstances? When did one have this entire career written in stone at 23?

I haven't seen anything to suggest that he's all of a sudden become a different player than he was before he became a Ranger that would point to him changing his production profile other than sky-high shooting percentages. Maybe he has figured out the secret that no one else has.

If you have not noticed a different level of play than when he was previously, then I truly do not know what to tell you.

 

[duhmetreE]

What people are missing is that he's shooting 21.7% in only 14 games. Prorate that over 82 games and he should easily finish the year at above 120%.

You're by far my favorite poster.

 

[duhmetreE]

Shot% is being over done. Put it into context. He has 23 shots in 14games; last year he had 80 shots in 63. If he were a shooter like an Ovi, I'd say he cannot sustain 20+%.

His high IQ puts him in high scoring spots; where his shots come from. He's developed as a player.

Here's a project for the 'analytics nerds'. Break down where Stromes shots come from... now what are the shot% from those spots?

Is this not possible? what website do you guys use for Charts/Analytics? I take it that it might be paywalled.

edit- nevermind I found it.

Strome's shot chart from this year. He could sustain 20% if he continues to shoot from where he has.

Now... to find shot% from those areas.

 

[Irishguy42]

Is this not possible? what website do you guys use for Charts/Analytics? I take it that it might be paywalled.

Here are the 5v5 unblocked shot charts from last season (with NYR) and this season so far. Charts are from Micah/HockeyViz.com

 

[The Crypto Guy]

The way he’s putting up points we might be able to fetch a 2nd for him at the deadline.

 

[duhmetreE]

Here are the 5v5 unblocked shot charts from last season (with NYR) and this season so far. Charts are from Micah/HockeyViz.com

Is there a way to break down shot% league wide from particular areas?

 

[Irishguy42]

Is there a way to break down shot% league wide from particular areas?

Something like that might be privately tracked.

The closest you might find is also from Micah, and it's shot rates relative to the league. For non-subscribers, he has only the current season heat maps available. Unfortunatley, I am not a subscriber, so I don't have previous season's heat maps.

Doesn't give you SH% for a particular area league-wide, but it does give you a specific player relative to the league in said area(s).

Not the same as SH%, but it's the closest that I know of. If I find something else, I can post it.

 

[duhmetreE]

Something like that might be privately tracked.

The closest you might find is also from Micah, and it's shot rates relative to the league. For non-subscribers, he has only the current season heat maps available. Unfortunatley, I am not a subscriber, so I don't have previous season's heat maps.

Doesn't give you SH% for a particular area league-wide, but it does give you a specific player relative to the league in said area(s).

Not the same as SH%, but it's the closest that I know of. If I find something else, I can post it.

Thank you.

Compare him to any other player. See how selective he is with his shots and they're in high scoring areas. (minus the empty netter)

 

[kovazub94]

What people are missing is that he's shooting 21.7% in only 14 games. Prorate that over 82 games and he should easily finish the year at above 120%.

American education system is world’s best!

 

[kovazub94]

This really reminds me of JTM arguments with silverfish after he scored 20 goals for the first time in his career. He talked about unsustainable high shooting % (where he was absolutely right), but didn’t acknowledge possibility of more shots per game.

Point is you can’t based a discussion on a single analytical variable without an appropriate context. People who support Strome readily acknowledge he’s not a first liner and not even a high end second liner, and thus themselves discount his high shooting % from the get go. But why from the other spectrum of the argument there’s no acknowledgement that he’s at the point in his career where he’s coming into his own like Brassard or Pouliot before him, or he’s in better situation than when he was with terrible Isles or Oilers, or simply able to find chemistry with his current teammates?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Not sure what everyone wants, seems like everyone is waiting for Strome to fail so they can tell you I told ya so. The guy has been one of the better players we have traded for in a while, has exceeded expectations, plays all positions and situations, has been able to play anywhere in the lineup and produce, good on faceoffs, has a bit of bite to his game. What's not to like? First one to throw analytics at me about his shot percentage being really good like it's a bad thing gets a jumping spinning super ninja like karate kick to the fat neck.

 

[Jim Ramsay]

Not sure what everyone wants, seems like everyone is waiting for Strome to fail so they can tell you I told ya so. The guy has been one of the better players we have traded for in a while, has exceeded expectations, plays all positions and situations, has been able to play anywhere in the lineup and produce, good on faceoffs, has a bit of bite to his game. What's not to like? First one to throw analytics at me about his shot percentage being really good like it's a bad thing gets a jumping spinning super ninja like karate kick to the fat neck.

Ranger fans I talk to praise strome to no end for stepping up and doing everything thats asked of him and then some...

Then you come on hfboards and there seems to be a lot of negativity throw his way about shooting % etc...

I think a lot of it is due to the fact he isnt homegrown so it doesnt fit in with the 'hfboard OUR prospect' mentality,

Which is a shame that people cant just enjoy whats going 'now' sometimes with this team, no one is talking about him being a savior for the next 5 years, but it should be noted he has done an amazing job since being acquired

 

[True Blue]

Which is a shame that people cant just enjoy whats going 'now' sometimes with this team, no one is talking about him being a savior for the next 5 years, but it should be noted he has done an amazing job since being acquired

Gold

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Ranger fans I talk to praise strome to no end for stepping up and doing everything thats asked of him and then some...

Then you come on hfboards and there seems to be a lot of negativity throw his way about shooting % etc...

I think a lot of it is due to the fact he isnt homegrown so it doesnt fit in with the 'hfboard OUR prospect' mentality,

Which is a shame that people cant just enjoy whats going 'now' sometimes with this team, no one is talking about him being a savior for the next 5 years, but it should be noted he has done an amazing job since being acquired

That's the thing though he is still young so him being a part of this for 5 years could and maybe should be a possibility, could have worse options on the third line when we are ready to contend.

 

[NYRangers16]

That's the thing though he is still young so him being a part of this for 5 years could and maybe should be a possibility, could have worse options on the third line when we are ready to contend.

Scary to think of what kind of contract it would take to make that happen.

 

[Kocur Dill]

So...

We have Zbad as 1c locked.

We resign Strome to a 3 to 5 year contract.

Either Chytil is now relegated to 3c or Panarin is 3LW because outside of being Panarin's catalyst Strome is a Proto 3C and not doing anything with the other 11 players to justify locking him into a $4m+ contract.

I get the "chemistry" aspect but I feel like locking him into term just to be Panarin's guy is causing more problems than it solves.

I don't see Chytil playing 3rd line minutes with 3rd line wings as maximizing his role/value/abilities. On the flip side, we are not paying Panarin $11.5m per to be a 3rd line winger just because he brings the best out of Strome.

Strome may not be a square peg in a round hole guy, but more like an 8mm round peg in a 10mm round hole.

Sell high.

 

[eco's bones]

To get to 50 points Strome would need to put up 36 points in the remaining 68 games. It's not far fetched at this point in time to think he'll do that or maybe even better. Right now he's getting 1st line minutes with Panarin. I'm not a big fan of Strome's skating by the way but he does have creative hockey IQ savvy and playing with Panarin there is chemistry. Now what happens when Mika comes back into the lineup--maybe then Panarin goes back with him but Mika was great last year with Buch and Kreider so......and there's Kakko too that could fit into the mix too. Unless Chytil displaces Strome at 2C Strome will be playing with pretty good offensive players whether Panarin stays on his line or not. If that continues throughout the year (barring injury) I would bet that Strome does 50 or better.

 

[kovazub94]

So...

We have Zbad as 1c locked.

We resign Strome to a 3 to 5 year contract.

Either Chytil is now relegated to 3c or Panarin is 3LW because outside of being Panarin's catalyst Strome is a Proto 3C and not doing anything with the other 11 players to justify locking him into a $4m+ contract.

I get the "chemistry" aspect but I feel like locking him into term just to be Panarin's guy is causing more problems than it solves.

I don't see Chytil playing 3rd line minutes with 3rd line wings as maximizing his role/value/abilities. On the flip side, we are not paying Panarin $11.5m per to be a 3rd line winger just because he brings the best out of Strome.

Strome may not be a square peg in a round hole guy, but more like an 8mm round peg in a 10mm round hole.

Sell high.

Well, first of all, props for not bringing high shooting % up, however I think there are a number of variables that are still missing there.

For example, Strome doesn’t need to play with Panarin to be a contributing piece on the roster as he showed last season. Next, Strome can play on a wing, not just center, so if you still want to tap into his chemistry with Panarin - why not try Chytil centering Panarin and Strome when Zibanejad returns? Further, it’s almost a certainty that Kreider will be moved during this season that opens up another top-6 spot even when everyone is healthy.

Strome will still be a RFA for another season after this one so a call on his future doesn’t have to be rushed, at least not until Gorton has a chance to talk with Strome’s business representatives. Your $4+m estimate might be way more than what he’d be willing to sign for. I mean he wasn’t living up to his current $3.1m, not until he found his comfort zone with the Rangers.

 

[True Blue]

We resign Strome to a 3 to 5 year contract.

Either Chytil is now relegated to 3c or Panarin is 3LW because outside of being Panarin's catalyst Strome is a Proto 3C and not doing anything with the other 11 players to justify locking him into a $4m+ contract.

What makes you think that resigning Strome is resigning him to play at center?

 

[Leonardo87]

I don’t see Strome commanding as much money as Hayes or even J.T. Miller for that matter. He is an upper 3C with lower 2C potential. But if the Rangers can lock him up for a few years around 4 million. I am cool with it. With Andersson looking like a Bust, would not mind having him at 3C and it will add some nice depth.