So sorry to keep you waiting. Work and a social engagement interfered with my response time. I promise to not allow that to happen again.
Are you aware that all of these players have more offensively skilled teammates than Johansen does?
Not a single one of these players led their team in scoring (by percentage) over their next highest scoring teammate than Johansen led the Jackets. Although Hall was very close. No one else was even in the same ball park.
Are you aware that Seguin and Benn play on the same line? Each of those players benefit from the other. I happen to think that Seguin is probably going to be a better point producer than Johansen, but take him off of Benn's line and put him with RJUmgarbage and Foligno and Jack Skille and his numbers would drop. Same with Benn. Would you take Benn over Johansen? Taylor Seguin's contract extension happened after his second year (67 points) after a dreadful 22 point rookie season. It was signed two years ago before the lockout and the cap rise.
Taylor Hall is a #1 overall pick who is a great player. Johansen can't skate like this guy. Not many can. He's the leading scorer on his team by quite a margin-just like Johansen. Eberle benefits greatly from playing with Hall. Would you rather have Eberle than Johansen? Taylor Hall's contract was also signed after year 2 of his ELC, before the lockout and before the cap rose.
John Taveres is another #1 overall pick who is prodigiously talented. His contract was signed before his ELC was finished 3 years ago. Maybe Johansen won't be as good as he is. So what?
The rest of the players are all on the same team. Duchene (70 points), Landeskog (65) and Oreilly (64) also had super rookie McKinnon (63) and Paul Stastny (60) on the same team. You don't think that Johansen might have had a few more points with these types of teammates? He probably would have led the Avalanche in scoring.
All you've done is point out that at this point in their careers, two #1 overall picks (Hall and Tavares) have had higher productivity than Johasnen as has a 2nd overall pick (Seguin). Each of these players have had more NHL experience than Johansen as well. Interestingly, Johansen led his team in scoring over the next highest player by a smidge more than Hall did (24% to 22%). If one goes back to Taveres' last full season (not coincidentally his 3rd NHL season), he led his next highest teammate by only 17%. So Johansen is, within his own team, a more prodigious scorer than two outstanding #1 overall picks. I wouldn't have known this had you not provided me with your post. Thanks.
Ryan Johansen fits very nicely with this group. There is absolutely nothing wrong with his agent seeking the term length that most of these guys are on (6 years) and a bit more money than they received two or more years ago with a lower cap. The contracts these guys signed may very well have been somewhat discounted due to the risk associated with the impending lockout of 2012-13. No one knew what would happen and signing in advance may have given these players a degree of certainty with their future incomes which they wouldn't have had had they not signed prior to the lockout.
Thanks for the response.
There are several things to consider in these:
I know you enjoy discussing shooting %. Johansen scored at an unsustainable 16.4 % shooting rate 5 on 5. The NHL average this past season is 8.1%. His previous high shooting % was 8.9% 5 on 5. His overall shooting % was 13.9%, once again the league-wide average was 8.9%.
What further inflates Johansen's stats are the unsustainable shooting % of his three most common linemates:
As you pointed out Umberger - 18 goals at an unsustainable 13.2% pace
Foligno - 18 goals at a an even more unsustainable 16.2%
Jenner - 16 goals at 12.6%
Johansen averaged 2.9 shots per game. Seguin averaged 3.7, Benn 3.7.
As far as pointing out that Taylor Hall and John Tavares are former #1 picks, the CBJ are offering Johansen comparable deals to theirs. He sure doesn't produce like they do. He definitely doesn't have the track record they do either.
If you like I can repost a number of players who clearly outperformed Johansen his breakout year, yet earn less than he is asking.
Many claim that by scoring 33 goals he has proved himself and there is no risk of regression. I think you posted elsewhere that it's like claiming a college QB who has a great Junior season can't be expected to regress. Please take a look at Evander Kane's record, then Nikolai Kulemin's, Alexandre Burrows, Mikael Samuelsson, and even Dustin Penner who potted 32 goals a few years ago, now no one will even touch him.
The list of players who just regressed is almost infinite.
I believe you, I and ALMOST everyone who posts on the Jackets board wants and believes the same thing. I just want the Jackets to be the very best team they possibly can, compete for a Cup regularly and win a Cup as well.
I can understand if anyone believes the best way to accomplish this is to pay for future production they think a player can achieve.
I for one don't think that's the way to build a team. I think great teams are built by have an entire group who buys in to the team concept. I think the best way to build a team is hold everyone accountable.
If Johansen gets to be in a position to demand 8,9,10 million or more, the market will pay it. That will come when he is eligible for unrestricted free agency and he has consistently performed at a
higher level than he has to date.