Rumour, Trade & Free Agent Discussion

[10Ducky10]

I'd rather have Horvat than Domi and I wouldn't include Slamberg in a trade for Horvat.

 

[Teemusalami204]

We would not trade Ehlers or Laine for Domi/Cirelli it would be a horrendous trade it would be something around a first roslovic and Samberg or Stanley if they want a big D Domi would never return either player

Not saying what they are worth compared to him. Only way we can give them roslo and futures is if they are rebuilding. And they are not taking Stanley lol

 

[Fire Chevy]

Not saying what they are worth compared to him. Only way we can give them roslo and futures is if they are rebuilding. And they are not taking Stanley lol

I was joking about Stanley it would be Samberg and true but Tampa can’t take camp at all considering what’s happening and how the salary cap sounds and Montreal could be interested in Samberg with a first and roslovic could work if they don’t want to pay Domi

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don’t even know where to start on this...

Oh come on, try.

1) Little is not going to retire. That means walking away from 18.75 mil $.
2) LTIR is not a tool available to any team to use with any player. A player has to be unfit to play. That doesn't mean it is never abused. But it has to be abused to apply it to a healthy player.
3) Do you think it is easy to trade a player who can't earn his contract? Or, if he can earn it, why are we trading him?
4) He could be bought out. It is permitted under the rules. It saves enough cap to make it viable. Same goes for Perreault.
5) Kulikov is better than Beaulieu.
6) Sbisa has been better than either of them.
7) Do you really think Brossoit has earned a raise this year?
8) DeMelo has been playing 1st pair with JMo because he is a better fit, more defensive. Pionk is better all around. If we get a better 1st pair D than DeMelo, we don't just slide everyone down a notch.

 

[voyageur]

Just a reminder of where the Jets will be next season in terms of salary cap if the cap is stagnant at 81.5M, which seems likely.

I've made a couple of key assumptions...

Buff is finished as a Jet.

Jets re-sign DeMelo (4 years) and Kulikov (1 year) and their RFAs for the projected salaries from Evolving Hockey.

As you can see, the Jets would have about $2.8-3.5M in cap space (on a 23 or 22 man roster), including Little.

If Little is on LTIR for the season, then they would have as much as $8.5M in cap space.

If Little is back, they could trade Roslovic and end up with as much as around $6.4M in cap space.

All-in-all, the Jets should be okay from a cap perspective next season, even with a cap that is stagnant or goes down a bit.

If Buff comes back at $7.6M cap hit, they would need to trade Roslovic or Perreault (difficult), and replace Kulikov with a cheap D (ELC or cheap UFA).

View attachment 337465

I still think it will be Beaulieu over Kulikov, I can't see Kulikov taking over a 50% paycut to be demoted to a 3rd pairing defenseman. I don't think that's the proper valuation of the season he has had. Beaulieu is probably about a $1.5 million defenseman, and more likely to stay, as he and De Melo probably sign together.

I still can't see Copp as a 2c, he started having some struggles in the stretch. He's best as the utility knife. I sure hope we try to re-sign Eakin. I think people forgot how good Eakin was in the playoffs against us. He's allowed Ehlers and Laine to be reunited, which has shown dividends. Looking at the big + in the stat sheets he has put up as a Jet, I hope he gets an offer. If he goes elsewhere, you still find another 2C. I wish Eakin would get more credit, out of the 3 centres we have acquired to be 2c, Eakin might be the best of them, given his age, and skillset. Stastny was great at the time, but long term would be a declining value. And Stastny didn't kill penalties regularly here.

Will be interesting to see how Little would factor. Maurice has favoured playing a top 9 and a 4th line during the regular season, and extending more to 4 lines towards the playoffs. If he comes back, I think the plan should be to keep him at centre. The way the Jets have changed their style this year, the speed from the wing is important, matching the speed from the defense. Centres are more positional players. He'd be the go to righty, assuming Shore moves on.

The decision becomes difficult though, if Little is a 3c, is Lowry expendable, because Copp and Roslovic have both shown themselves to be capable 3rd line centres, as replacements?

I'd prefer not to lose Lowry, but economics says that Gustafsson is not far off from being an impact player at a fraction of the cost.

Boy if the Salary Cap flatlines, I think the Jets have to buyout Perreault for breathing room, but you get the sense they like him around the team.

 

[snowkiddin]

Pionk is a 4/5 guy. Your expectations are too low

He has 45 points in 71 games this year while being mostly solid defensively. He’s been our best D for most of the year. He’s definitely a top 4 guy.

 

[surixon]

He has 45 points in 71 games this year while being mostly solid defensively. He’s been our best D for most of the year. He’s definitely a top 4 guy.

I think he is a very good number 3 dmen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Took a major break as I was very heartbroken having a 4 game winning streak snapped by this virus. But I have a few things on my mind so here we go.

If the salary cap stays the same or drops because of the season being cancelled then we are probably sitting in one of the best situations in the league. Are team would be as is and room to squeak a tweak or two next year.

Alot of teams will have to blow things up if the cap drops even the slightest. There will be alot of turnaround and bargains in the summer.

If the season resumes,the way the last games play out and how many games we would have left drastically impact our chances. With the games in hand teams have on us we might not get in.

Eakins is a upgrade on Lowry not a replacement for little.

If we can sign demelo for 4 mil a year long term we do it. He isnt worth 6 as some posters feel he is. If we can get him locked for cheap and pair him with morrisey to free up money for improvements elsewhere then great if not see ya.

Take care everyone. Thank sweet baby jesus that zelda breath of the wild is a long ass game

Don't agree about Eakin/Lowry completely different types of players and different roles. Lowry is still 3C. Eakin is playing in Little's spot. You might say he is not an upgrade on Little, but he is the Little replacement.

Assuming Little comes back, how good will he be?

 

[DRW204]

He has 45 points in 71 games this year while being mostly solid defensively. He’s been our best D for most of the year. He’s definitely a top 4 guy.

he's a pp specialist

 

[Teemusalami204]

Don't agree about Eakin/Lowry completely different types of players and different roles. Lowry is still 3C. Eakin is playing in Little's spot. You might say he is not an upgrade on Little, but he is the Little replacement.

Assuming Little comes back, how good will he be?

I know they are different players. But I was more talking the impact on the game in general. Little is better then eakin, even if little isnt as good as he was before he got hurt. And eakin is better then Lowry as is.

It would be a downgrade replacing little with eakin and an upgrade with Lowry is what i meant

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I know they are different players. But I was more talking the impact on the game in general. Little is better then eakin, even if little isnt as good as he was before he got hurt. And eakin is better then Lowry as is.

It would be a downgrade replacing little with eakin and an upgrade with Lowry is what i meant

If Little isn't as good as he was before he got hurt how can we know he is better than Eakin?

Eakin is not 'better' than Lowry if he is tasked with Lowry's role. He is a better Little replacement than Lowry, or Copp.

If we keep Eakin and Little returns as the player he was before he was hurt, then we could use Eakin centring a completely different 3rd line than what we have had. I think Harkins - Eakin - Roslovic would be a better 3rd line than Copp - Lowry - Roslovic, playing a more offensive role. Copp - Lowry - Appleton would be a great 4th line.

I think we get Little back. I doubt he will be the player he was. If nothing else, he will be a year older. That will be a year not playing, just rehabing for almost the entire year. He may be close to the player he was. Or not. To some extent, injuries have a cumulative effect.

 

[Atoyot]

he's a pp specialist

If he's a PP specialist then we're in trouble cause he has the best 5v5 metrics among D on our team.

 

[DRW204]

If he's a PP specialist then we're in trouble cause he has the best 5v5 metrics among D on our team.

shows how bad the d group has been this year. for point production he definitely is a pp specialist, he has the highest % of PP Points to total points among the top 50 scoring Dman

 

[Atoyot]

shows how bad the d group has been this year. for point production he definitely is a pp specialist, he has the highest % of PP Points to total points among the top 50 scoring Dman

He also has (tied) the most 5v5 points among D men on the team.

He can get every single point on the PP for all I care, so long as he's not a liability 5v5 he shouldn't be labeled a PP specialist, and he hasn't been.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I still think it will be Beaulieu over Kulikov, I can't see Kulikov taking over a 50% paycut to be demoted to a 3rd pairing defenseman. I don't think that's the proper valuation of the season he has had. Beaulieu is probably about a $1.5 million defenseman, and more likely to stay, as he and De Melo probably sign together.

I still can't see Copp as a 2c, he started having some struggles in the stretch. He's best as the utility knife. I sure hope we try to re-sign Eakin. I think people forgot how good Eakin was in the playoffs against us. He's allowed Ehlers and Laine to be reunited, which has shown dividends. Looking at the big + in the stat sheets he has put up as a Jet, I hope he gets an offer. If he goes elsewhere, you still find another 2C. I wish Eakin would get more credit, out of the 3 centres we have acquired to be 2c, Eakin might be the best of them, given his age, and skillset. Stastny was great at the time, but long term would be a declining value. And Stastny didn't kill penalties regularly here.

Will be interesting to see how Little would factor. Maurice has favoured playing a top 9 and a 4th line during the regular season, and extending more to 4 lines towards the playoffs. If he comes back, I think the plan should be to keep him at centre. The way the Jets have changed their style this year, the speed from the wing is important, matching the speed from the defense. Centres are more positional players. He'd be the go to righty, assuming Shore moves on.

The decision becomes difficult though, if Little is a 3c, is Lowry expendable, because Copp and Roslovic have both shown themselves to be capable 3rd line centres, as replacements?

I'd prefer not to lose Lowry, but economics says that Gustafsson is not far off from being an impact player at a fraction of the cost.

Boy if the Salary Cap flatlines, I think the Jets have to buyout Perreault for breathing room, but you get the sense they like him around the team.

Even without the pandemic uncertainty, Jets would be going into the off-season with a lot of question marks. A lot of decisions that are dependent on each other. Like sign Eakin? Depends on Little. Trade Lowry? Depends on Eakin. Etc.

I think Kulikov will be disappointed in the offers he gets if he expects a pay cut of <50%. He should be very grateful to the Jets for overpaying him for the last 3 years.

I think Sbisa and Kuli have both been better than Beaulieu. Sbisa seems to be the forgotten man since he has been out injured. IMO, he was easily the best of our 5 barrel scrapings. Beaulieu was pretty near universally disliked here until he fought a couple of times. Then he is suddenly a much better D man. I think we get Sbisa back for about 1 mil, maybe 1.2. I would offer Kuli about 2x2. I only talk to Beaulieu if Kuli turns that down. I offer him about 1.2 also.

Agree on Copp. I wanted to see him given a chance at 2C. Maybe he would score more with skilled wingers. He got a good look and didn't score enough.

Not sure about Eakin. Depends on Little to some extent. Also on how much Eakin expects to get. I don't think he is a long term solution at 2C, but he might be an adequate stopgap, buy time to find a better solution.

Maurice has favoured playing a top 6 plus a shutdown 3rd line. I honestly don't know how to characterize his 4th line strategy. A holding spot for some PK'ers maybe? I think that if Little is not 2C there is pretty good chance he ends up at RW.

With Roslovic, Harkins, Copp, Gus and even Appleton able to play C in the bottom 6 and Lowry entering his last year before UFA he becomes expendable. Especially if you also consider his lack of scoring this year. I wouldn't necessarily call it trying to get rid of him, but I would try to cash in his trade value. I'd be happy to keep him as a 4C at an appropriate cost, but I don't see that happening any time soon.

The salary cap certainly won't be going up as was predicted just a month ago. It might even go down, even if they manage to salvage some kind of PO. Jets could be in a pretty good position to take advantage of that if they can free up a little space. Perreault would be a buy-out candidate. So might Little, though that is a long time to have to carry it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

he's a pp specialist

He's picked up 25 PP pts. That leaves 20 pts at even strength. Still not bad.

 

[Whileee]

shows how bad the d group has been this year. for point production he definitely is a pp specialist, he has the highest % of PP Points to total points among the top 50 scoring Dman

Pionk's on-ice Corsi against per 60 (CA/60) is #40 among NHL defensemen (500+ minutes). That's adjusted for context, teammates, and opponents.

That metric puts him on par with players like Muzzin and Pietrangelo and Slavin.

His even-strength point production is likely pulled down by quite low on-ice shooting percentages, which could be due to some poor shooting luck while he's on the ice.

 

[Teemusalami204]

If Little isn't as good as he was before he got hurt how can we know he is better than Eakin?

Eakin is not 'better' than Lowry if he is tasked with Lowry's role. He is a better Little replacement than Lowry, or Copp.

If we keep Eakin and Little returns as the player he was before he was hurt, then we could use Eakin centring a completely different 3rd line than what we have had. I think Harkins - Eakin - Roslovic would be a better 3rd line than Copp - Lowry - Roslovic, playing a more offensive role. Copp - Lowry - Appleton would be a great 4th line.

I think we get Little back. I doubt he will be the player he was. If nothing else, he will be a year older. That will be a year not playing, just rehabing for almost the entire year. He may be close to the player he was. Or not. To some extent, injuries have a cumulative effect.

I Gree with a lot of what your saying. But my whole point was if we are using eakin for a 2nd line center role it's not going to make us better

 

[DRW204]

He also has (tied) the most 5v5 points among D men on the team.

He can get every single point on the PP for all I care, so long as he's not a liability 5v5 he shouldn't be labeled a PP specialist, and he hasn't been.

I am not surprised he is tied for 5v5 points on the team, he has the most 5v5 minutes on the back-end and playing with our top end fwds. He has 0.69 5v5 pts/60 which is ranked in the 90-100s among Dmen league-wide (depending on how you filter your 5v5 mins). Trouba was a better 5v5 producer than Pionk with the Jets both in totals and efficiency. By efficiency, he's 5th on the team (excluding Heinola' limited minutes), slightly above Morrrissey. edit - surprisingly, trouba has virtually the same 5v5 production/efficiency as pionk this year 16 pts/0.78 pts per 60

So are you conceding he's a PP specialist for production, which is the argument i was making? Only Krug has a higher reliance on PP point production across the top 50 dmen in scoring at 57% (my mistake, thought Pionk at 55.6% was first). Also, for being a PP specialist he really isn't a good one since our PP has been underwhelming with him at the helm. All dmen rely on the PP evidently, however, other than Krug, no other Dman has a higher reliance on individual production than Pionk.

Imo he's a low-to-mid end top 4 D that has been gifted a highly productive role on the Jets PP, where over the years, several Dman have produced very efficiently. at 5v5, compared to league wide dmen, he's on the lower end of the scale for top 4 D in terms of stats, might be good on our team, but our D group for the majority has been composed of some terrible players.

 

[DRW204]

Pionk's on-ice Corsi against per 60 (CA/60) is #40 among NHL defensemen (500+ minutes). That's adjusted for context, teammates, and opponents.

That metric puts him on par with players like Muzzin and Pietrangelo and Slavin.

His even-strength point production is likely pulled down by quite low on-ice shooting percentages, which could be due to some poor shooting luck while he's on the ice.

and by xGA he's 124th, and by GAR he has a negative EVO+EVD impact and ranked 155th cumulative GAR (135th in per 60 based on 500 mins)

 

[Atoyot]

I am not surprised he is tied for 5v5 points on the team, he has the most 5v5 minutes on the back-end and playing with our top end fwds. He has 0.69 5v5 pts/60 which is ranked in the 90-100s among Dmen league-wide (depending on how you filter your 5v5 mins). Trouba was a better 5v5 producer than Pionk with the Jets both in totals and efficiency. By efficiency, he's 5th on the team (excluding Heinola' limited minutes), slightly above Morrrissey.

So are you conceding he's a PP specialist for production, which is the argument i was making? Only Krug has a higher reliance on PP point production across the top 50 dmen in scoring at 57% (my mistake, thought Pionk at 55.6% was first). Also, for being a PP specialist he really isn't a good one since our PP has been underwhelming with him at the helm. All dmen rely on the PP evidently, however, other than Krug, no other Dman has a higher reliance on individual production than Pionk.

Imo he's a low-to-mid end top 4 D that has been gifted a highly productive role on the Jets PP, where over the years, several Dman have produced very efficiently. at 5v5, compared to league wide dmen, he's on the lower end of the scale for top 4 D in terms of stats, might be good on our team, but our D group for the majority has been composed of some terrible players.

Yeah I think most of the disagreement here is just that we have a different definition of a PP specialist. When I think of a PP specialist the player that pops into my head immediately is Marc-Andre Bergeron. Good shot and good instincts on the PP but a disaster everywhere else. Pionk is good enough everywhere else that he just doesn't fit my definition.

 

[DRW204]

Who would do a deal based around laine and barzel?

I don't think NYI is trading Barzal. He's their 1C and has produced better than Laine over their career

 

[DRW204]

Yeah I think most of the disagreement here is just that we have a different definition of a PP specialist. When I think of a PP specialist the player that pops into my head immediately is Marc-Andre Bergeron. Good shot and good instincts on the PP but a disaster everywhere else. Pionk is good enough everywhere else that he just doesn't fit my definition.

well in terms of points i don't think there's a question he's a pp specialist. i am not enamored with his defensive game either imo. Dmen salaries are often driven by TOI and total points, and Pionk leads the team in both, thanks to being given the Jets PP role where historically players produce points at a high rate. I will not be surprised if he's our highest paid defenseman thanks to his high PP usage.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I know they are different players. But I was more talking the impact on the game in general. Little is better then eakin, even if little isnt as good as he was before he got hurt. And eakin is better then Lowry as is.

It would be a downgrade replacing little with eakin and an upgrade with Lowry is what i meant

So far Eakin is doing pretty well with Ehlers and Laine. Small sample, but promising. If he can keep it up, I don't think he is a downgrade from Little. I agree he is an upgrade from Lowry at 3C.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I Gree with a lot of what your saying. But my whole point was if we are using eakin for a 2nd line center role it's not going to make us better

It makes us better if the alternative is Copp. It might make us better compared to Little, depending on how good Little is when he comes back. If we have retained Eakin and Little comes back and wins the 2C job, then Eakin can play 3C.

I'm not sure I would want to retain Eakin though. I would be concerned with term. He will want at least 3, probably 4 years. I would want him to take 2.