Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Y'all Got Any Good Goalies?

[TheNumber4]

I think the Oilers are a tough team to play for and not cause of chance quality, but because we often will go half a period limiting a team to 2 or less shots, in such scenarios its easy to get complacent or fall out of the rhythm of the game.

A lot of goalies prefer to be more active and play better in high shot environments, it's a unique skill to not see the puck for long stretches of time and then immediately perform at a high level.

Yup. There’s something to this theory.

So if we were to target a goalie, is there a way to see who performs well with low shot volume? That’s who I would want.

Come on. I guarantee it’s tougher for a goalie to get shelled every game on SJ than face 2 shots a period.

Tougher on the body. Easier to build stats, when you get in a rhythm and you’re getting shelled, it’s the perfect time to pad the stats.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Blackwood also posted multiple save percentages in the 0.890s on New Jersey who were plenty adequate defensively. As seen by the fact that even players like Jonathan Bernier and Vitek Vanacek were able to put up over 0.900 in those same seasons.

Go ask NJ fans. It was years ago, but they say he won them so many games they had no business of winning. Best performances they seen since Brodeur and some Schneider.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Yup. There’s something to this theory.

So if we were to target a goalie, is there a way to see who performs well with low shot volume? That’s who I would want.


Tougher on the body. Easier to build stats, when you get in a rhythm and you’re getting shelled, it’s the perfect time to pad the stats.

beyond ridiculous saying your team getting worked every night is a perfect time to build stats. Yah maybe save totals but who looks at that.

 

[bucks_oil]

Come on. I guarantee it’s tougher for a goalie to get shelled every game on SJ than face 2 shots a period.

... said no goalie ever.

Those two shots against sound like at least one was a shorthanded breakaway when a puck bounced a stick at the point.

I'm being facetious, but you should be able to see my point: it's a lot easier to pad stats when you have lots of shots... conversely, if you have 10 shots a period or 20, it doesn't make a lick of difference to the one that was perfectly placed on a 2-1.... that one was going to beat you no matter whether it was the first and only shot or the 50th.

 

[TheNumber4]

beyond ridiculous saying your team getting worked every night is a perfect time to build stats. Yah maybe save totals but who looks at that.

For a goalie it is. For the exact example bucks_oil provided. If you are getting hemmed and get the oppurtunity to save 30 muffins as opposed to 15 muffins, that’s going to build stats.

 

[bucks_oil]

beyond ridiculous saying your team getting worked every night is a perfect time to build stats. Yah maybe save totals but who looks at that.

It depends how they are getting worked.

A team with exceptional defense, zero offense/puck possession is going to get worked on shots against, but not necessarily quality shots against.

In contrast, a team that has the puck all night, outshoots the opponent 2-1 but is prone to pinching poorly at the opponent's blue line is going to murder their goalies stats.

This is why SPCT (on its own) is highly flawed.

 

[TheNumber4]

When it comes to goaltenders, IMO it comes down to how you define "better" or "worse". If it's purely SPCT or fancy-SPCT (ie GSAA) without actually looking at context (ie errors), then it's tough to say.

Blackwood could go from San Jose, who are hemmed in their zone most of the night, getting peppered with 35 random shots, plus 3 breakaways and 3 two-on-one breaks coming from o-zone breakdowns... and he let's in 4. He stopped all of the 35 random shots, stopped one breakaway and one of the 2-on-1s.

Then he comes to Colorado, where they are the ones hemming in opponents for most of the night. He gets a lighter workload of 14 random shots, plus 2 breakaways and 2 two-on-one breaks from o-zone breakdowns and he lets in 2. He stopped all of the 14 random shots, 1 breakaway and 1 two-on-one.

Same-same right? Except in one scenario he's at 0.902 and the other he's at 0.888. At least the fancies might pick up the fact that in Colorado he stopped 50% of the odd-man rushes, and in SJ he only stopped 1/3 of them (if that fact doesn't get washed out stats-wise by how the fancies rated the random 35 shots)

The point: On the basis that the pucks bounces over sticks at blue lines for odd man rushes on both good and bad teams, playing for a good team can sometimes be more punishing (stats-wise) for goalies.

Completely agree with your theory. And I’m not the only one. Jesse Granger, The Athletics Goalie Expert sees it too:

“The save percentage hasn’t been good, the stats aren’t great. But you play for a team that is not good for goalie stats. The oilers play a style where they possess the puck a lot, and you don’t get a huge volume of shots, but then when they do give up a chance because they are so aggressive offensively it’s a really dangerous chance. So I’ll give him a bit of a break on his save percentage. I don’t think the oilers play like a team where any goalie can step in and play .920, I think it’s the opposite for him. If you get the best out of skinner you have a chance at the cup.“

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

... said no goalie ever.

Those two shots against sound like at least one was a shorthanded breakaway when a puck bounced a stick at the point.

I'm being facetious, but you should be able to see my point: it's a lot easier to pad stats when you have lots of shots... conversely, if you have 10 shots a period or 20, it doesn't make a lick of difference to the one that was perfectly placed on a 2-1.

You are acting like it’s just shots it’s also light years more HdSC against.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

For a goalie it is. For the exact example bucks_oil provided. If you are getting hemmed and get the oppurtunity to save 30 muffins as opposed to 15 muffins, that’s going to build stats.

SJ isn’t giving up a bunch of muffins otherwise I would agree with you.

 

[TheNumber4]

You are acting like it’s just shots it’s also light years more HdSC against.

I don’t think this is always the case, atleast if we are talking about odd man rushes when you say HDSC.

Sometimes when a good team dominates another on possession it leads to less on-the-rush high danger breakdowns. Cause o-zone possession and mistakes in the o-zone by the crappy team creates the counter odd man rushes. If a crappy team doesn’t have the ability to create o-zone possession in the first place, they are hemmed in their zone the whole time, and just taking a bunch of mostly contested volume shots. The team is still getting caved, but in a different way.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Speaking of which, what a shot this guy has. Didn’t know he had that in his game. Hopefully they start hitting net and not post. And we could have a real nice piece here.

Absolutely the Oilers are better just having this guy as depth in the roster, because he can spot fill reasonably and play in the bottom-6 everyday.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I don’t think this is always the case, atleast if we are talking about odd man rushes when you say HDSC.

Sometimes when a good team dominates another on possession it leads to less on-the-rush high danger breakdowns. Cause o-zone possession and mistakes in the o-zone by the crappy team creates the counter odd man rushes. If a crappy team doesn’t have the ability to create o-zone possession in the first place, they are hemmed in their zone the whole time, and just taking a bunch of mostly contested volume shots. The team is still getting caved, but in a different way.

They also lose possession all the time and that leads to…

I see your point I just don’t agree. It would be very hard to have nice numbers on a team like SJ for a whole season. Eventually the ridiculous amount of HDSC against catch up.

 

[belair]

I'm not as interested in what goalies did like 2+ years ago.

Tell me their numbers for last season and this season, that shows me more where they are at now.

Last year Blackwood was higher than Skinner in GSAA despite playing on the worst team in the league, this year he is significantly higher in GSAA over Skinner playing on a poor team.

It shows you squat. GSAA is a stat in its infancy that pumps goalies playing on poor teams. And it's shown that those stats don't necessarily carry year over year. A goalie can be at the top of that list one year and on the bottom the next.

The Oilers aren't going to find a goalie that they can sit back and expect him to win them a chunk of games. It's in the team's best interest to prioritize the areas of the team that will win them games with average goaltending.

 

[bucks_oil]

You are acting like it’s just shots it’s also light years more HdSC against.

Why is it automatically more HDSC?

HDSC are not randomly distributed based on the number of shots a team has. That's now how it works.

As a goalie, what are the things I fear the most?

1) Odd man rushes (breakaways 2v1) where the offensive players have tonnes of time and the back check has no hope of getting there in time. Those tend to start at the opponent's blue line while your team is pressing for offense. More pressing for offense, more offensive time... it stands to reason if you aren't careful, more odd-man-rushes against.

2) Random unpredictable or un-seeable events. Like deflections or screens or other bad-bounce broken plays. Yes, these in theory increase in number with more overall shots on goal. But they also decrease with truly solid defensive teams... since sticks are tied up... which is not always the case on a team that is strong offensively/possession wise.

I guess what I'm saying is:
1) no team is perfect, there are going to be catastrophic breakdowns
2) teams that are strong possession-wise, tend do give up fewer shots against, but
3) being strong possession wise is NOT the same as being strong defensively

Take an extreme example. If we had an entire lineup of Ekholm + RNH, vs an entire lineup of Bouchard + Drai, which goalie would have:
A) more shots against? Ekholm by a mile, since Bouchard+Drai will have the puck and generate way more
B) more screened shots against? Bouchard+Drai
C) more breakaways against? Bouchard+Drai by a mile... those risky passes sometimes have consequences
D) more rebound shots against? Bouchard by a mile
E) more deflections against? Bouchard by a mile

So which goalie's going to look better? Ekholm+RNH by a mile.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Come on. I guarantee it’s tougher for a goalie to get shelled every game on SJ than face 2 shots a period.

It's important to separate tougher in terms of work load and tougher in terms of ones ability to put up better looking goalie stats and for the majority of the conversation it's been centered around GSAA/60 which is factoring in the quality of shots faced by the goalie.

Also for the current season:

Sharks-
HDCA/60= 12.22
SCA/60= 31.7
Percentage of High Danger Chances Against relative to Scoring Chances Against= 38.5*

Oilers-
HDCA/60= 8.67
SCA/60= 24.62
Percentage of High Danger Chances Against relative to Scoring Chances Against= 35.2*

So while SJ is allowing many more scoring chances and high danger chances against than us the ratios between us and them isn't wildly different (the difference is more appreciable in the adjusted stats*). It also shouldn't be overlooked that all the bitching being done is on a fairly small sample size, Skinner outperformed Blackwood just last season on a larger sample size.

Edit: Oops used 5v5 stats instead of all situations adjusted *

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It shows you squat. GSAA is a stat in its infancy that pumps goalies playing on poor teams. And it's shown that those stats don't necessarily carry year over year. A goalie can be at the top of that list one year and on the bottom the next.

The Oilers aren't going to find a goalie that they can sit back and expect him to win them a chunk of games. It's in the team's best interest to prioritize the areas of the team that will win them games with average goaltending.

This team should have enough offense to outscore substandard goaltending. They don't need to score 6 every single night but generally when you get to 3 or 4 you win.

 

[Dirk Dangler]

It's important to separate tougher in terms of work load and tougher in terms of ones ability to put up better looking goalie stats and for the majority of the conversation it's been centered around GSAA/60 which is factoring in the quality of shots faced by the goalie.

Also for the current season:

Sharks-
HDCA/60= 11.83
SCA/60= 31.6
Percentage of High Danger Chances Against relative to Scoring Chances Against= 37.4%

Oilers-
HDCA/60= 8.97
SCA/60= 24.52
Percentage of High Danger Chances Against relative to Scoring Chances Against= 36.6%

So while SJ is allowing many more scoring chances and high danger chances against than us the ratios between us and them isn't wildly different. It also shouldn't be overlooked that all the bitching being done is on a fairly small sample size, Skinner outperformed Blackwood just last season on a larger sample size.

Yeah but it was never Blackwood over Skinner. It could have been Blackwood and Skinner.

 

[TheNumber4]

SJ isn’t giving up a bunch of muffins otherwise I would agree with you.

I don’t watch enough Blackwood or SJ to speak specifically about their situation. I heard they are better defensively this season than people give them credit for, but who knows. But i agree with the theory in general, it makes sense.

 

[unicornBLOOD]

No, he fits on the roster, they'll have to figure out lines 3 and 4 once Arvy is back.

When Kane is back they'll just have depth.

not if they want to keep accumulating cap space he isn't.

If the team is 100% healthy, which is a BIG if, these guys are in the top 12.

McDavid
Hyman
RNH
Draisaitl
Arviddson
Podkolzin
Henrique
Kane
J. Skinner
Janmark
D. Ryan
C. Brown


If the team is going to go with 12 forwards in order, and no F in the press box, in order to make some cap room, then that leaves no room for Perry or Kapanen.

Philp may get swapped with D. Ryan because they both play C. Injuries happen, so who knows if they ever even get to this point, but if they do, there is no room for Kapanen without making some kind of move.

 

[Spawn]

I think the thing that a lot of Skinner defenders are missing is that most people aren’t saying that we should trade Skinner for an upgrade. We are saying we should add a goalie to play in tandem with Skinner who has the chance at outperforming him.

Skinner isn’t good enough, but the realistic upgrade isn’t on him, it a on Pickard.

We aren’t going to be able to add a goalie that can play ~60 games. Those goalies are few and far between. But we could add a goalie who could maybe play 40 games and provide some competition for playoff starts. For example, trading for Vejmelka at 50%. It’s all about adding another genuine option should Skinner be unable to play at a good enough level come playoff time.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Yeah but it was never Blackwood over Skinner. It could have been Blackwood and Skinner.

That sounds awesome sign me up, but at the same time I also want a 2nd pair d-man, and someone who can bring an offensive spark to our 3rd line to get Henrique going and we can't do it all.

My opinion from the outset on the goalie market was let COL get their goalies first, their issues were more pronounced and they were more desperate to correct it, you never want to get into a bidding war with a desperate team.

 

[K1984]

I think the thing that a lot of Skinner defenders are missing is that most people aren’t saying that we should trade Skinner for an upgrade. We are saying we should add a goalie to play in tandem with Skinner who has the chance at outperforming him.

Skinner isn’t good enough, but the realistic upgrade isn’t on him, it a on Pickard.

We aren’t going to be able to add a goalie that can play ~60 games. Those goalies are few and far between. But we could add a goalie who could maybe play 40 games and provide some competition for playoff starts. For example, trading for Vejmelka at 50%. It’s all about adding another genuine option should Skinner be unable to play at a good enough level come playoff time.

Even if Skinner's game is in a good spot - what if he gets hurt in the first round?

Adding a more stable backup goalie has been a standard issue deadline add for contenders that need it forever. It would be absolutely stupid if we didn't also pursue it, but for whatever reason I'm getting the impression that management is taking a "nah its all fine" approach to this rather than just find a redundancy like everyone else would.

Pickard is good in spot duty when his opponents are planned for and a cadence can be worked into his schedule. He will not be good if he has to play one of the best teams in the world in a 7 game series. His record against actual good teams speaks for itself, and not in a good way. Not to say that another backup goalie wouldn't be staring up a mountain either, but they might at least have a chance.

 

[Soundwave]

It shows you squat. GSAA is a stat in its infancy that pumps goalies playing on poor teams. And it's shown that those stats don't necessarily carry year over year. A goalie can be at the top of that list one year and on the bottom the next.

The Oilers aren't going to find a goalie that they can sit back and expect him to win them a chunk of games. It's in the team's best interest to prioritize the areas of the team that will win them games with average goaltending.

The team defensively really can't be asked to do much more than they do now.

Since about the 3rd game of the season they've been like 5th or 6th best in goals against per game, overall they are still 10th best in the league some how even with huge problems with the PK and goaltending earlier in the season.

The fact of the matter is this team is a whole different animal when they get .906-.915 tier goaltending, they are extremely difficult to beat behind the system Knob has defensively. When we don't give other teams goaltending charity (freebie or easier goals) they have massive problems beating us.

Our problem is our starter (Skinner) is wildly inconsistent and simply probably isn't talented enough to maintain a high level of play without huge periods of dips. Doesn't have the athleticism needed to be a full time top goalie.

Goaltending is thus IMO the primary need, if you could get another option who can pick up the slack when Skinner is slumping, your odds of a Cup increase significantly. Moreso than adding just another forward or D.

If we had a goalie that could have stepped in and given us .905-.910 in even just one of the first three games of the Cup Final, there's probably a 2024 Stanley Cup Champions banner at the top of Rogers Place right now. The Oilers front office can ask themselves what they would pay to have that banner instead of the 2024 Western Conference Champions one.

 

[Spawn]

That sounds awesome sign me up, but at the same time I also want a 2nd pair d-man, and someone who can bring an offensive spark to our 3rd line to get Henrique going and we can't do it all.

My opinion from the outset on the goalie market was let COL get their goalies first, their issues were more pronounced and they were more desperate to correct it, you never want to get into a bidding war with a desperate team.

Goaltending has, imo, been the teams biggest weakness in every playoff season going all the way back to the play in during that first Covid year. The only exception being the Winnipeg series where we were swept.

We have enough pieces up front. If we can’t get 3 lines going once Kane and Arvidsson are healthy than imo thats not a personnel issue, its a coaching one. Maybe we need a 4C, but we should be trying Philp there first, and even then, the cost for one in terms of assets and cap is minimal.

Agree we need a 2nd pair D. But there should be room to add both that and another goalie.

 

[K1984]

Goaltending has, imo, been the teams biggest weakness in every playoff season going all the way back to the play in during that first Covid year. The only exception being the Winnipeg series where we were swept.

We have enough pieces up front. If we can’t get 3 lines going once Kane and Arvidsson are healthy than imo thats not a personnel issue, its a coaching one. Maybe we need a 4C, but we should be trying Philp there first, and even then cost for one in terms of assets and cap is minimal.

Agree we need a 2nd pair D. But there should be room to add both that and another goalie.

Even then, Mike Smith was as big a culprit as anyone else in the Game 3 implosion.