Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Y'all Got Any Good Goalies?

[TheNumber4]

Ducks have been the absolute worst team in the league for 5 plus years. And how many times have players lost interest or completely lost there game and been traded only to have there career resurrected ans or atlesdt start to have fun again and enjoy playing?

Be nice if this happens to Henrique.

Goals saved above expected the last three seasons:

This year: +3.9
Last year: +2.4
Year before: -0.9

Skinner:

This year: -7.0
Last year: +2.0
Year before +6.8

Pretty comparable to Skinner. Would have been nice in a tandem.

Can’t blow our TDL upgrade on “pretty comparable” though.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Be nice if this happens to Henrique.

Henrique is just old dude…

Also 7 points and a +7 in his last 10 games playing on the 3rd line and the PK… what more do you want…

 

[TheNumber4]

I'm curious to see if Blackwood is actually a big improvement or if there is something about the Av's defense that makes them give up a lot of goals. It will give us some insight into what is possible with the Oilers.

I'm not sure about all of the thought that goes into goalie selection either. How much of it is based on compatibility with their team's defensive style and so on.

Same. I’m just interested in how the experiment plays out at this point. No regrets not getting in on the Blackwood “sweepstakes”. But I’ll be interested nonetheless how he pans out. I think the Avs are a leaky team defensively from what I’ve seen this season, I’ve heard the sharks are underrated defensively as well. Blackwood had always been talked about as a high potential goalie, well this is his chance now.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Back before Xmas

Which year?

 

[TheNumber4]

Henrique is just old dude…

Also 7 points and a +7 in his last 10 games playing on the 3rd line and the PK… what more do you want…

I’m just saying that old agage of playing on a crappy team then automatically getting better on a good team, shouldn’t be taken as gospel. I’ve used that point many times in the past but I’m rethinking my stance on that.

Look at guys like Henrique, Skinner, Emberson. They are about the same or slightly worse coming from a bad team to a good one. And then the reverse of going from a good team to a bad one, doesn’t hold either. As many players gone from our good team are having great years.

That said, this effect probably does hold true for goaltenders. Even though Markstroms performance has dropped from Calgary to NJ I think.

These days I’d be more inclined to say what you see out of a player on a bad team is probably what you are going to get. So don’t bank on some automatic upgrade in a players play with a change in environment.

 

[K1984]

I’m just saying that old agage of playing on a crappy team then automatically getting better on a good team, shouldn’t be taken as gospel. I’ve used that point many times in the past but I’m rethinking my stance on that.

Look at guys like Henrique, Skinner, Emberson. They are about the same or slightly worse coming from a bad team to a good one. And then the reverse of going from a good team to a bad one, doesn’t hold either. As many players gone from our good team are having great years.

That said, this effect probably does hold true for goaltenders. Even though Markstroms performance has dropped from Calgary to NJ I think.

These days I’d be more inclined to say what you see out of a player on a bad team is probably what you are going to get. So don’t bank on some automatic upgrade in a players play with a change in environment.

I think these things need to be looked at by position and in context.

Scoring players on shitty teams aren't going to score the same when they're on elite teams with scoring depth. Henrique has lost ice time and PP time especially. Ditto for Skinner. It's not because they're bad, they don't have the same amount of offensive opportunity. Henrique and Skinner could be playing identical to how they played last year - they still aren't going to score as much.

Conversely, when you're talking about d men and goalies it's the opposite. Easy to look bad on a shitty team, a lot easier to look good on a better team with better matchups, managed minutes, and teammates that push the puck in the other direction more consistently.

 

[TheNumber4]

I think these things need to be looked at by position and in context.

Scoring players on shitty teams aren't going to score the same when they're on elite teams with scoring depth. Henrique has lost ice time and PP time especially. Ditto for Skinner. It's not because they're bad, they don't have the same amount of offensive opportunity. Henrique and Skinner could be playing identical to how they played last year - they still aren't going to score as much.

Conversely, when you're talking about d men and goalies it's the opposite. Easy to look bad on a shitty team, a lot easier to look good on a better team with better matchups, managed minutes, and teammates that push the puck in the other direction more consistently.

Yes. You need to look at other things. Just throw the whole idea of being better cause of good vs bad teams out the window, it obscures the analysis. And look at usage, age trends, the player himself, team fit, etc etc. There’s lot of variables here.

 

[Spawn]

I’m just saying that old agage of playing on a crappy team then automatically getting better on a good team, shouldn’t be taken as gospel. I’ve used that point many times in the past but I’m rethinking my stance on that.

Look at guys like Henrique, Skinner, Emberson. They are about the same or slightly worse coming from a bad team to a good one. And then the reverse of going from a good team to a bad one, doesn’t hold either. As many players gone from our good team are having great years.

That said, this effect probably does hold true for goaltenders. Even though Markstroms performance has dropped from Calgary to NJ I think.

These days I’d be more inclined to say what you see out of a player on a bad team is probably what you are going to get. So don’t bank on some automatic upgrade in a players play with a change in environment.

You’re definitely right. A lot of it boils down to usage. Guys like Skinner and Henrique playing on worse teams have gone from top 6 mainstays to playing 2-3 minutes less per game in our bottom 6.

I suspect you’re right that the same doesn’t apply as readily for goaltenders.

 

[TheNumber4]

You’re definitely right. A lot of it boils down to usage. Guys like Skinner and Henrique playing on worse teams have gone from top 6 mainstays to playing 2-3 minutes less per game in our bottom 6.

I suspect you’re right that the same doesn’t apply as readily for goaltenders.

Yeh I’m done with that assumption. It just doesn’t hold true in many examples past and present. Have to dig deeper. Goalies and team play are intrinsically connected, so I wouldn’t think so.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Yeh I’m done with that assumption. It just doesn’t hold true in many examples past and present. Have to dig deeper. Goalies and team play are intrinsically connected, so I wouldn’t think so.

Just one example but I remember when Olli Jokinen was traded from Phoenix to Calgary and the narrative was that he was going to experience playoff hockey for the first time and he was going to up his game. He played fine, nothing really wrong...

...And then he never made the playoffs again.

 

[backhandsauce]

What are your F lines when Kane is back and we are healthy?

Does Kapanen go back on waivers when Arvy is healthy?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

What are your F lines when Kane is back and we are healthy?

Does Kapanen go back on waivers when Arvy is healthy?

No, he fits on the roster, they'll have to figure out lines 3 and 4 once Arvy is back.

When Kane is back they'll just have depth.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

.899 on San Jose is better than Skinner's .905 on the Oilers.

The Oilers under Knob have one of the best defensive structures in the league, San Jose is like the worst team in the league a year ago.

Blackwood also posted multiple save percentages in the 0.890s on New Jersey who were plenty adequate defensively. As seen by the fact that even players like Jonathan Bernier and Vitek Vanacek were able to put up over 0.900 in those same seasons.

 

[McJadeddog]

So maybe end of January or early February for next update. Makes sense and tracks with the original prognosis.

 

[TheNumber4]

No, he fits on the roster, they'll have to figure out lines 3 and 4 once Arvy is back.

When Kane is back they'll just have depth.

Speaking of which, what a shot this guy has. Didn’t know he had that in his game. Hopefully they start hitting net and not post. And we could have a real nice piece here.

 

[Soundwave]

Blackwood also posted multiple save percentages in the 0.890s on New Jersey who were plenty adequate defensively. As seen by the fact that even players like Jonathan Bernier and Vitek Vanacek were able to put up over 0.900 in those same seasons.

I'm not as interested in what goalies did like 2+ years ago.

Tell me their numbers for last season and this season, that shows me more where they are at now.

Last year Blackwood was higher than Skinner in GSAA despite playing on the worst team in the league, this year he is significantly higher in GSAA over Skinner playing on a poor team.

 

[TheNumber4]

Not worth it's own thread, but I want to shout out Iowa, who loves the Oilers more than any other US State.

View attachment 942877

Only Canadian team to have a presence in the States. That’s weird, wonder what the connection is.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Be nice if this happens to Henrique.


Can’t blow our TDL upgrade on “pretty comparable” though.

Henrique has been undersung defensively. He's a reason why we can just roll 3 lines and opponents getting hardly anything for scoring chances. Henrique is old now, and all we need him to do is Center low event hockey on that line. Still, the guy is getting some pts and goals. He's really very much of a McTavish back there (except not as physical) doing mop up after the big lines have their time. Also frees up Nuge to be permanent on topsix. Henrique is a nice utility knife to have around. That he's so able to come here and just be content playing a role, when he himself is a former star player is just another good thing about him. He's the commensurate pro that puts team ahead of himself.

 

[Heavy Dee]

Not worth it's own thread, but I want to shout out Iowa, who loves the Oilers more than any other US State.

View attachment 942877

Interesting. Are there any actual numbers?

 

[TheNumber4]

Henrique has been undersung defensively. He's a reason why we can just roll 3 lines and opponents getting hardly anything for scoring chances. Henrique is old now, and all we need him to do is Center low event hockey on that line. Still, the guy is getting some pts and goals. He's really very much of a McTavish back there (except not as physical) doing mop up after the big lines have their time. Also frees up Nuge to be permanent on topsix. Henrique is a nice utility knife to have around. That he's so able to come here and just be content playing a role, when he himself is a former star player is just another good thing about him. He's the commensurate pro that puts team ahead of himself.

Well he did say himself he’s been focusing on the defensive side and that can take away from offence. But he is trying to be more of a contributor on the offensive side lately, so it’s coming along.

 

[Heavy Dee]

So maybe end of January or early February for next update. Makes sense and tracks with the original prognosis.

Then he can go to Bako. Then they can apply for an extension for Bako. Then he can return for playoffs.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

.899 on San Jose is better than Skinner's .905 on the Oilers.

The Oilers under Knob have one of the best defensive structures in the league, San Jose is like the worst team in the league a year ago.

I think the Oilers are a tough team to play for and not cause of chance quality, but because we often will go half a period limiting a team to 2 or less shots, in such scenarios its easy to get complacent or fall out of the rhythm of the game.

A lot of goalies prefer to be more active and play better in high shot environments, it's a unique skill to not see the puck for long stretches of time and then immediately perform at a high level.

 

[Soundwave]

I think the Oilers are a tough team to play for and not cause of chance quality, but because we often will go half a period limiting a team to 2 or less shots, in such scenarios its easy to get complacent or fall out of the rhythm of the game.

A lot of goalies prefer to be more active and play better in high shot environments, it's a unique skill to not see the puck for long stretches of time and then immediately perform at a high level.

Some how I doubt Skinner would have better numbers playing in San Jose.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I think the Oilers are a tough team to play for and not cause of chance quality, but because we often will go half a period limiting a team to 2 or less shots, in such scenarios its easy to get complacent or fall out of the rhythm of the game.

A lot of goalies prefer to be more active and play better in high shot environments, it's a unique skill to not see the puck for long stretches of time and then immediately perform at a high level.

Come on. I guarantee it’s tougher for a goalie to get shelled every game on SJ than face 2 shots a period.

 

[bucks_oil]

You’re definitely right. A lot of it boils down to usage. Guys like Skinner and Henrique playing on worse teams have gone from top 6 mainstays to playing 2-3 minutes less per game in our bottom 6.

I suspect you’re right that the same doesn’t apply as readily for goaltenders.

When it comes to goaltenders, IMO it comes down to how you define "better" or "worse". If it's purely SPCT or fancy-SPCT (ie GSAA) without actually looking at context (ie errors), then it's tough to say.

Blackwood could go from San Jose, who are hemmed in their zone most of the night, getting peppered with 35 random shots, plus 3 breakaways and 3 two-on-one breaks coming from o-zone breakdowns... and he let's in 4. He stopped all of the 35 random shots, stopped one breakaway and one of the 2-on-1s.

Then he comes to Colorado, where they are the ones hemming in opponents for most of the night. He gets a lighter workload of 14 random shots, plus 2 breakaways and 2 two-on-one breaks from o-zone breakdowns and he lets in 2. He stopped all of the 14 random shots, 1 breakaway and 1 two-on-one.

Same-same right? Except in one scenario he's at 0.902 and the other he's at 0.888. At least the fancies might pick up the fact that in Colorado he stopped 50% of the odd-man rushes, and in SJ he only stopped 1/3 of them (if that fact doesn't get washed out stats-wise by how the fancies rated the random 35 shots)

The point: On the basis that the pucks bounces over sticks at blue lines for odd man rushes on both good and bad teams, playing for a good team can sometimes be more punishing (stats-wise) for goalies.