Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread: The "Well, we're waiting!!!" Edition with a sprinkle of "Don't believe his lies."

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Seems interesting.

 

[Mez]

Seems interesting.

wait why would the Blues be making a trade for Meier? are they not rebuilding?

 

[CycloneSweep]

Seems interesting.

Wonder if they grab Meier and Karlsson

 

[ChaoticOrange]

wait why would the Blues be making a trade for Meier? are they not rebuilding?

Weirdly, not every team believes a rebuild needs to take two decades.

Meier's great, in his prime, and is an RFA after this year so he could be retained. He's not necessarily a rental.

Also interesting that after all the caterwauling from the media in this town about how hard it is to make trades and open up cap space in this league St Louis opened up, what, 9 million worth of it in a couple weeks?

 

[CycloneSweep]

Weirdly, not every team believes a rebuild needs to take two decades.

Meier's great, in his prime, and is an RFA after this year so he could be retained. He's not necessarily a rental.

Also interesting that after all the caterwauling from the media in this town about how hard it is to make trades and open up cap space in this league St Louis opened up, what, 9 million worth of it in a couple weeks?

They definitely look like they are planning on retooling rather than a full rebuild.

 

[longtimeoilfan]

Desharnais recalled ...

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Wonder if they grab Meier and Karlsson

That's my wonder and worry as well

 

[Fourier]

The HDSC type stats are horribly compiled. They're so wrong most of the time its not worth even using in analytics. For instance the Rangers game purported to have 11 for the Oilers and 6 for the rangers. Its like opposite of the game I watched.

In anycase think of it. Of course a team exits more efficiently with a good puck playing goalie. This allows setup and looks prior to the forecheck arriving. Goailes that can set up for their D are invaluable in this regard.

Of course a goalie that can't do that, and I encourage anybody to watch closer, is going to hinder puck transition out.

Honestly, there is very little evidence to support your claim that HDSC stats are horribly compiled. These shot location stats are probably the most scrutinized data sets in the hockey analytics community. In fact there was a big controversy a few years back when all of a sudden the NHL's stats seemed out of whack with those of the analytic community. When that happened video evidence actually favoured the analytics community.

The data in the case of the Oilers vs the Rangers is pretty clear from the heat map for 5 vs 5 shots. It would be highly unlikely that the stats you objected to would have been off by enough to change the narrative. And for what it is worth the picture this heat map presents is pretty much is in line with how I saw the game myself so not every eye test will come to the same conclusion.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20222023&game=20881

Now you can argue the merits of how things like HDCF are defined and even how valuable things like individual xGF might be. But unless you have some evidence that the actual data is bad beyond your own impression I think your case in this regard is pretty weak.

From a technical perspective there is no reason today for such data not to be accurate. There are sophisticated tracking tools available that give much more precise information than just shot distance and type. Companies like HockeyTech in my back yard make these tools available to leagues across North America. In case of the NHL they now have a complete tracking system that uses infrared cameras with sensors in the pucks and on player jerseys.

 

[McDNicks17]

wait why would the Blues be making a trade for Meier? are they not rebuilding?

Kyrou, Thomas and Buchnevich is still a good young core.

 

[Canovin]

That's my wonder and worry as well

St. Louis? Aren't they retooling?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

St. Louis? Aren't they retooling?

They are adding talent to the young skilled guys they have

 

[Yuke]

We have 4 forwards destroying the league offensively this year who are massivley on their game, 3/4 on pace for career years. Half of those guys will take a step back next year. That’s not something you waste.

Some validity to this. Maybe I'm on the negative side Kane is hampered still with his injury, Goaltending and D is struggling, Something is up with Leon, Broberg, Holloway, Kostin, Bouchard are not there yet. Too many week spots still.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Kyrou, Thomas and Buchnevich is still a good young core.

A team with that core is headed nowhere. This is rebuild all day except for how much and how much term they pay those leaders. Thomas has never met a playoff game he liked which is OK I guess because he won't be seeing any for sometime. Kyrou is basically Gaudreau with higher pay.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

wait why would the Blues be making a trade for Meier? are they not rebuilding?

Meier would fit the Thomas kyrou Parayko ages of a re tool

 

[Drivesaitl]

Honestly, there is very little evidence to support your claim that HDSC stats are horribly compiled. These shot location stats are probably the most scrutinized data sets in the hockey analytics community. In fact there was a big controversy a few years back when all of a sudden the NHL's stats seemed out of whack with those of the analytic community. When that happened video evidence actually favoured the analytics community.

The data in the case of the Oilers vs the Rangers is pretty clear from the heat map for 5 vs 5 shots. It would be highly unlikely that the stats you objected to would have been off by enough to change the narrative. And for what it is worth the picture this heat map presents is pretty much is in line with how I saw the game myself so not every eye test will come to the same conclusion.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20222023&game=20881

Now you can argue the merits of how things like HDCF are defined and even how valuable things like individual xGF might be. But unless you have some evidence that the actual data is bad beyond your own impression I think your case in this regard is pretty weak.

From a technical perspective there is no reason today for such data not to be accurate. There are sophisticated tracking tools available that give much more precise information than just shot distance and type. Companies like HockeyTech in my back yard make these tools available to leagues across North America. In case of the NHL they now have a complete tracking system that uses infrared cameras with sensors in the pucks and on player jerseys.

Case in point Rangers game. I watched the game. Theres no way the Rangers had only 6HDSC in that game. Yet thats what the cited tally was. But the bolded is also a criticism of mine.

 

[Canovin]

They are adding talent to the young skilled guys they have

I understand trading Tarasenko and ROR. But why put Barbashev on the market? As Replacement said, the core is not that great

 

[WaitingForUser]

Weirdly, not every team believes a rebuild needs to take two decades.

Meier's great, in his prime, and is an RFA after this year so he could be retained. He's not necessarily a rental.

Also interesting that after all the caterwauling from the media in this town about how hard it is to make trades and open up cap space in this league St Louis opened up, what, 9 million worth of it in a couple weeks?

They cleared 9 million in cap because they are selling all their players off. We could do the same and clear tons of cap but it will mean missing the playoffs. Is that what we want?

 

[Soundwave]

I wonder if they try and play tighter defensively for Skinner because he's a rookie but with Campbell they know his track record and cheat for offence more hoping he will bail them out.

Oilers knowing Campbell is a crappier goalie so they play harder for him is pretty much on brand for this team. Any chance they get to relax, they take it, we see it every time they get a break in the schedule.

We see it in games, any time they get a big lead, they relax (often to predictable results).

So of course when they have the better of the two goalies in net (Skinner) they relax more thinking they're on easy street.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

They cleared 9 million in cap because they are selling all their players off. We could do the same and clear tons of cap but it will mean missing the playoffs. Is that what we want?

If we could sell off a couple players and add Meier or Karlsson I would be all for it, you bet.

 

[YakDavid]

Meier would fit the Thomas kyrou Parayko ages of a re tool

It does fit with a retool. I do think if they are willing to move parayko while also making a move for Meier we should stay away. It would be an indication they don’t have faith in his back.

 

[Canovin]

Oilers knowing Campbell is a crappier goalie so they play harder for him is pretty much on brand for this team. Any chance they get to relax, they take it, we see it every time they get a break in the schedule.

We see it in games, any time they get a big lead, they relax (often to predictable results).

So of course when they have the better of the two goalies in net (Skinner) they relax more thinking they're on easy street.

No need to make excuses for Skinner either. Both Campbell and Skinner are 1B at best. They are more of a backup if anything

 

[Fourier]

Case in point Rangers game. I watched the game. Theres no way the Rangers had only 6HDSC in that game. Yet thats what the cited tally was. But the bolded is also a criticism of mine.

The 6 HDSC is 5 vs 5. And the heat map showing where shots were taken pretty much agrees with this. As I said this data is highly scrutinized and is almost 100% (say 99.999999999972%) going to be more accurate then your memory or mine.

Like every stat HDCF has its uses and its limitations. It comes from looking at a combination of where a shot was taken from and what the shot was. There are large sample sizes that give you a probability of a particular type of shot from a particular distance resulting in a goal. So on whole the stat does give you a decent picture of how the play tilted. But what it does not factor in is who is taking the shot. And of course that matters. A top end sniper can be expected to exceed the predicted xGF while a stone-handed plug will under preform. So at the individual level it needs context. But over the course of a season and over all circumstances these stats can tell you things that matter simply because of the law of large numbers.

 

[McDoused]

No, we're blaming Schwartz for our goalies sucking. These problems are not mutually exclusive.

That being said, Skinner has been fine. He's been losing lately because when he goes into the net the team forgets how to score for some reason.

It's like the Oilers only have two modes. They either try to outscore their problems and forget about defence (high event hockey) or look lost out there trying to learn defence (low event hockey).

 

[Zguy370]

Your constant hype of Jack Campbell and constant hacking down of Skinner despite everything that we've seen in games and everything that's been stated here is either completely trollish or just straight delusion.

Mikko Koskinen was 27-12-4 last season and most of this board couldn't wait to see him board a plane.

All that saves the Oilers from getting crushed in most Campbell games is they score a full goal more every game with Campbell in net. Probably because they know it's gonna be Swiss cheese back there.

Don't know if you guys have been on the Campbell thread, but for some insane reason, this poster seems to back him up all the time with ridiculous comments, like we see here.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The 6 HDSC is 5 vs 5. And the heat map showing where shots were taken pretty much agrees with this. As I said this data is highly scrutinized and is almost 100% (say 99.999999999972%) going to be more accurate then your memory or mine.

Yep.

That's the thing with data - even if it's slightly flawed or not 100%, it's still going to be many, many times more accurate than our memories.

Especially since our memory is skewed towards things like flashy saves, big hits, and accentuates the negative. It's why so many people think Bear was a piece of shit but love Niemelainen even though Bear is many times better than Nemo is. Bear's mistakes were just big when they happened and Nemo is large and hitty.