Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread: The "Well, we're waiting!!!" Edition with a sprinkle of "Don't believe his lies."

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Exactly. I actually don't think the D is that bad... our problem is in the neutral zone transition, leading to odd-man, low-back check pressure, breaks against.

In every game we were up 3-0 or 4-1 we were entirely content to trade chances all night in a track meet. Risky stretch passes and 1v3 dangles at the opposing blue line.

Campbell had a couple of absolute stinkers, but also some HUGE robberies on A+++ chances against. Those chances are coming because of a complete unwillingness to change our offensive game once we get up.

Campbell is one of the worst performing goalies in terms of saves on high danger chances. Every goalie in the NHL has the athleticism/ability to those kinds of saves, even dudes like Korpisalo. It's consistency at which you make those saves that makes the difference and Campbell's consistency is horrendous.

 

[Macblender]

Georgiev also didn’t want to come here

 

[TGOSnipes99]

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yet we always seem to end up on the short end of the shaken stick.

Not really. Even in the case of goalies like Roloson, Talbot, and Dubnyk people constantly want rid of them. Its pretty simple. This board tends to HATE goalies.

The reason is associative error. Because the nature of hockey is that goalies are the last and foremost line of defense people blame them for any puck going in. first to blame.

Case in point you blamed Campbell just yesterday for a laser shot from Mackinnon, from the dot, that was deflected, beating Campbell, on a screen play. Your conclusion was so off on that goal but you provide the supporting evidence for my post.

I can't remember the last time the fanbase actually liked a goalie. It was probably Cujo. But I remember people being critical of his "form" and "style" as well and even saying dumb things like "he's just making reaction stops"

People blame goalies. Thats the short and sweet of it. Its often not the root issue.

 

[bucks_oil]

Campbell is one of the worst performing goalies in terms of saves on high danger chances. Every goalie in the NHL has the athleticism/ability to those kinds of saves, even dudes like Korpisalo. It's consistency at which you make those saves that makes the difference and Campbell's consistency is horrendous.

In aggregate I don't disagree with you... I'm not a huge Campbell fan... but I watched every minute of these games and they were definitely undisciplined team losses. Very different than early season when Campbell's goaltending WAS losing us games.

If we want to blame these last three on Campbell we would be missing the broader point entirely.

 

[TGOSnipes99]

Not really. Even in the case of goalies like Roloson, Talbot, and Dubnyk people constantly want rid of them. Its pretty simple. This board tends to HATE goalies.

The reason is associative error. Because the nature of hockey is that goalies are the last and foremost line of defense people blame them for any puck going in. first to blame.

Case in point you blamed Campbell just yesterday for a laser shot from Mackinnon, from the dot, that was deflected, beating Campbell, on a screen play. Your conclusion was so off on that goal but you provide the supporting evidence for my post.

I can't remember the last time the fanbase actually liked a goalie. It was probably Cujo. But I remember people being critical of his "form" and "style" as well and even saying dumb things like "he's just making reaction stops"

People blame goalies. Thats the short and sweet of it. Its often not the root issue.

Yes, this is not all goalies. They are a part of it. This is about how bad our forwards are with backchecking, supporting the D, etc. Also on the D who panic a lot. Structure.

I would say Calgary is more of a goalie problem. They don't give up a ton of HDCA, yet they lose a lot. A bad PP and non-elite forwards are also contributing

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

The HDSC type stats are horribly compiled. They're so wrong most of the time its not worth even using in analytics. For instance the Rangers game purported to have 11 for the Oilers and 6 for the rangers. Its like opposite of the game I watched.

In anycase think of it. Of course a team exits more efficiently with a good puck playing goalie. This allows setup and looks prior to the forecheck arriving. Goailes that can set up for their D are invaluable in this regard.

Of course a goalie that can't do that, and I encourage anybody to watch closer, is going to hinder puck transition out.

Puck playing goalies help with breakouts nobody said otherwise, but lets not pretend Jack Campbell is Martin Brodeur or Mike Smith lol. In fact he was actually below league average in terms of puck retrieval volume and puck retrieval efficiency last season (there are no publicly available stats for 2022-23 but eye test wise he's playing the puck nowhere close to as much as Smith and not even that much more than Skinner).

In aggregate I don't disagree with you... I'm not a huge Campbell fan... but I watched every minute of these games and they were definitely undisciplined team losses. Very different than early season when Campbell's goaltending WAS losing us games.

If we want to blame these last three on Campbell we would be missing the broader point entirely.

I would say we played undisciplined vs the Rangers, against Colorado it was a combination of goalie being a pile of shit, reffing, and lack of focus, against Detroit he single handedly lost us the game and every single skater/coach/system did the work to earn a win.

 

[Frank the Tank]

I have the solution - start Campbell so the boys are flying and grab a 3-0 lead and then put in Skinner so they start tightening up their defense.

 

[bellagiobob]

Minny retained $1.875M on O'Reilly and gave up Josh Pillar for the 4th rounder they received. If you go to CapFriendly's homepage and scroll down it has a recent trades sections with all the particulars including retention and overall cap implications for each trade which is pretty handy.

It might not be the place to find breaking trades on trade deadline day but CapFriendly should have all the trade details a day or two afterwards, except maybe some info on conditional draft picks if that info hasn't been disclosed yet.

Anyways, with regards to retention it seems like it's somewhat variable depending on the trade and teams involved. The difference with Karlsson obviously is that he's got 4 more full years on the deal. If the Oilers could get another team to retain 13% on Karlsson that's $1.5M per year. Is that worth a 3rd rounder or more per year? Probably depends on the team and they'd probably try to extract a 1st + for that much retention instead of a 3rd rounder for each year of the deal. Chicago seems like the ideal team to involve for 3rd party retention in such a situation. Seems unlikely though given the length of Karlsson's deal, but who knows.

I believe actual salary consequences for Minny due the rest of the year were around 74k though, which is what a lot of these teams are more concerned about, not so much the cap hit if they have room.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Not really. Even in the case of goalies like Roloson, Talbot, and Dubnyk people constantly want rid of them. Its pretty simple. This board tends to HATE goalies.

The reason is associative error. Because the nature of hockey is that goalies are the last and foremost line of defense people blame them for any puck going in. first to blame.

Case in point you blamed Campbell just yesterday for a laser shot from Mackinnon, from the dot, that was deflected, beating Campbell, on a screen play. Your conclusion was so off on that goal but you provide the supporting evidence for my post.

I can't remember the last time the fanbase actually liked a goalie. It was probably Cujo. But I remember people being critical of his "form" and "style" as well and even saying dumb things like "he's just making reaction stops"

People blame goalies. Thats the short and sweet of it. Its often not the root issue.

Talbot was the true MVP of the first McDavid MVP season. Campbell is slipping again, even against Ottawa he wasn't really all that sharp, he just got the run support needed. The Avs game was a game where the Oilers played well and deserved the lead. Avs fans were really upset that we made them look so bad. And then... well, you know what happens from there.

The biggest save Campbell gave us in that game was 9 seconds before it was over. He gave up 6 goals to a depleted Avs team that was on the second half of a back to back and seemed content to coast into the night until they smelled blood. It's not also just about making the saves, it's when they're made. Giving up an early goal in the third to MacKinnon (he was slow moving side to side) was the instant the team lost the game. Anyone who's watched this team for the past decade or so has seen this story a billion times: Two goal lead going into the third, give up an early one and scramble for the remainder of the game. He makes that save on MacKinnon we're having an entirely different conversation right now.

Campbell was not good against the Avs. I don't know why that's even a debate right now. He was the second best goalie on the ice in a game the Oilers really needed to have. I mean f*** they didn't even have Makar. If that's what a potential rematch looks like just bet on the sweep.

Oh, and fire Dustin Schwartz already. Why do we keep holding on to this goof? Anti-Midas touch with goalies.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The team has straight up mailed it in for his last 5 starts.

Kings
Nucks
Blue Jackets
Flyers
Canadiens

Only one of those games that you could claim the team was even bare average was the Nuck game, and that one was a lazy game as well that Skinner had to be stellar in especially early and late. Three of these games could qualify for "worst effort of the year" easily.

Looking back at his last 10 starts there were maybe two games in there where the team wasn't complete shit. Its actually stunning.

This is actually a great point.

Those five games have maybe four of the worst team efforts on the season in there.

The Habs game nobody showed up
The Flyers game Skinner stood on his head and the team couldn't buy a goal
The Blue Jackets game they played down to their opponent
And the Kings game the PK couldn't be arsed to do anything. LA's first four goals were all on the powerplay.

 

[TGOSnipes99]

Talbot was the true MVP of the first McDavid MVP season. Campbell is slipping again, even against Ottawa he wasn't really all that sharp, he just got the run support needed. The Avs game was a game where the Oilers played well and deserved the lead. Avs fans were really upset that we made them look so bad. And then... well, you know what happens from there.

The biggest save Campbell gave us in that game was 9 seconds before it was over. He gave up 6 goals to a depleted Avs team that was on the second half of a back to back and seemed content to coast into the night until they smelled blood. It's not also just about making the saves, it's when they're made. Giving up an early goal in the third to MacKinnon (he was slow moving side to side) was the instant the team lost the game. Anyone who's watched this team for the past decade or so has seen this story a billion times: Two goal lead going into the third, give up an early one and scramble for the remainder of the game. He makes that save on MacKinnon we're having an entirely different conversation right now.

Campbell was not good against the Avs. I don't know why that's even a debate right now. He was the second best goalie on the ice in a game the Oilers really needed to have. I mean f*** they didn't even have Makar. If that's what a potential rematch looks like just bet on the sweep.

Oh, and fire Dustin Schwartz already. Why do we keep holding on to this goof? Anti-Midas touch with goalies.

It is such a weird thing. Just change him for the sake of a change at this point FFS. Who is he related to in this organization?

 

[Drivesaitl]

I have the solution - start Campbell so the boys are flying and grab a 3-0 lead and then put in Skinner so they start tightening up their defense.

I did burst out laughing. Comic genius. But you wonder. I mean they do this in Baseball with pitchers right? heh

I'm jk. I think.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It is such a weird thing. Just change him for the sake of a change at this point FFS. Who is he related to in this organization?

He's been here for about a decade now and Talbot's the only goalie that excelled here... for one year before he was Schwartz'd.

Katz let a bunch of employees go a few years ago (my cousin in security among them) and he still pays this asshole.

 

[GMofOilers]

Your constant hype of Jack Campbell and constant hacking down of Skinner despite everything that we've seen in games and everything that's been stated here is either completely trollish or just straight delusion.

I’m just posting facts

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yes, this is not all goalies. They are a part of it. This is about how bad our forwards are with backchecking, supporting the D, etc. Also on the D who panic a lot. Structure.

I would say Calgary is more of a goalie problem. They don't give up a ton of HDCA, yet they lose a lot. A bad PP and non-elite forwards are also contributing

Don't really agree with this. Anytime I watch Calgary is coverage is egregious. For years it was goaltending saving them. As recently as last season they got 12 shutouts, and it wasn't because of any great defensive play it was because of goalies stoning. How often do we get shutouts of the type that the goalie just outright steals the game and stops everything?

Calgary give up a lot and it shows up anytime we play them and anytime its an earnest opponent performance. Unfortunately most NHL teams see the Flames as such mops they don't even bother to get up for them.

 

[Cagey B]

I'm not sold its the goalie.... we have bitched about every goalie ( pretty much ) the only constant has been Schwartz. IMO he needs to be fired into the sun.

 

[Arpeggio]

Not really. Even in the case of goalies like Roloson, Talbot, and Dubnyk people constantly want rid of them. Its pretty simple. This board tends to HATE goalies.

The reason is associative error. Because the nature of hockey is that goalies are the last and foremost line of defense people blame them for any puck going in. first to blame.

Case in point you blamed Campbell just yesterday for a laser shot from Mackinnon, from the dot, that was deflected, beating Campbell, on a screen play. Your conclusion was so off on that goal but you provide the supporting evidence for my post.

I can't remember the last time the fanbase actually liked a goalie. It was probably Cujo. But I remember people being critical of his "form" and "style" as well and even saying dumb things like "he's just making reaction stops"

People blame goalies. Thats the short and sweet of it. Its often not the root issue.

You're correct that this town is too hard on goalies (and I would argue defencemen as well), but Campbell has been horrendous this season. He's had one stretch of good games, and I find it hard to believe this is the level he's going to play at going forward, but on the whole he's been one of the worst goalies in the NHL all year.

 

[iCanada]

I'm not sold its the goalie.... we have bitched about every goalie ( pretty much ) the only constant has been Schwartz. IMO he needs to be fired into the sun.

Best goaltending we get is from outside guys first years or when a guy like Smith doesn't see Schwartz and getd their own guy, too.

It's definitely a huge concern.

 

[McTonyBrar]

 

[McDoused]

I see we are blaming schwartz now for the lack of team defence.

 

[oXo Cube]

I see we are blaming schwartz now for the lack of team defence.

No, we're blaming Schwartz for our goalies sucking. These problems are not mutually exclusive.

That being said, Skinner has been fine. He's been losing lately because when he goes into the net the team forgets how to score for some reason.

 

[bellagiobob]

Is it possible that the constant Campbell vs Skinner talk can go in the Campbell thread and not this one? It’s like watching a Family Guy Peter and the chicken episode.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Again running on ifs, buts, should have, would have, could have.

I don’t think you understand what any of that means. A goalies GAA and S% are their points. You are literally trying to argue that someone with less points is better than someone with more because their teams win more. So with that logic Marchand > McDavid.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I see we are blaming schwartz now for the lack of team defence.

Dustin Schwartz has been here for 8 years and only once would I say the Oilers had above average goaltending in that span (2016-17).