Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Post Free Agent Frenzy, Will JJ Show His Pimp Hand Again to Upgrade the Defense?

[LTIR]

Not a chance mcdavid signs fit any were near 16 million. Is he worth it??? OFC he is, be he knows how crippling that contract would be. He also doesn't think there is that much gap between him ans Draisaitl play he is humble. I suspect mcdavid will sign for roughly 500k to MAYBE 1 mill more then drai cap hit.

So drai will set the bar

It is kinda of ironic how all the talk is about team friendly desls right now. Were was this talk for nurse deal? I actually love nurse but he is a 7 million dollar player not 9

McDavid will and should get league max. He is miles better than Draisaitl and face of the league. Fact that he will sign with increased league cap in 2yrs will also be a factor.
NHLPA will push for 16M+ for sure and he will be worth it.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Parayko is a lot like Larsson in that people love the idea of them instead of what they actually are now.

Parayko has fallen off a cliff. He had worse numbers against elite comp last year than a guy that some are calling the worst player in the league(Josh Brown).

You'd have to be crazy to trade for that contract.

Question your conclusion looking at Parayko's data on NHL Edge and Hockey Reference.

23:52 toi (12th in league)
26 points. 23 EV
+4 on a team with -14 goalshare
+25 takeaway/giveaway (73 takeaway/48 giveaway)
All while beginning with a career high defensive zone start of 65.3% (34.7% o-zone start)

Colton Parayko Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Colton Parayko. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

NHL Edge
Personal Zone Starts Team Zone Starts
36.1% O Zone Starts 40.0%
17.9% Neutral Zone 17.8%
46.0% D Zone 41.8%
Parayko: NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters
Team: NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Teams

This is a player who plays over a third of his team's sixty minutes. Drives even strength production from the backend including 10 goals at EV. Kept his head above water with a +4 goal differential on a team result -14 with a personal +25 takeaway differential. All the while being relied on for heavily skewed defensive zone starts. Add on NHL league 63 percentile skating speed; 99 percentile shot speed; 92 percentile skating distance (90 percentile of league PK; 98 percentile EV.)

Comparing this guy to Josh Brown... really?

 

[Canovin]

Not a chance mcdavid signs fit any were near 16 million. Is he worth it??? OFC he is, be he knows how crippling that contract would be. He also doesn't think there is that much gap between him ans Draisaitl play he is humble. I suspect mcdavid will sign for roughly 500k to MAYBE 1 mill more then drai cap hit.

So drai will set the bar

It is kinda of ironic how all the talk is about team friendly desls right now. Were was this talk for nurse deal? I actually love nurse but he is a 7 million dollar player not 9

There was a lot of talk of guys like RNH, Barrie and even Kane taking team friendly deals. Nurse decided it was in his best interest to get max. Supposedly he was underpaid at 5.6M when he was bridged haha. Ironically, he's not even playing up to 5.6M right now

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Why would the PA care? So 0.5% of the players can use McDavids contract as a benchmark to get more money while everyone else gets less money?

 

[K1984]

Yeah, I don't think McD has much of a choice. Best player in the world and it's his job to represent the NHLPA and raise the bar. Drai and Pooshart would need to take deals. I just don't see the face of the game being able to when it's "his responsibility" to help the rest of the league make more money

If this were the case he wouldn’t have knocked his last deal down a few million.

This narrative is such a myth.

 

[Canovin]

The NHLPA probably didn't even care if McDavid took 14M or 12.5M last time around. Those were just rumours. If McDavid takes 16M and Drai at 14M, our window went from 6 years or so to 1 year to win the cup

 

[barry halls]

If Kylington gets desperate he’d be a great PTO option. The guys on Calgary’s Fan960 have been crying and whining about him leaving Calgary because they feel he owes the Flames another contract…it would be a real f-u to Calgary if he ended up in orange and blue.

But then again Edmonton having won more rounds these past two seasons than the flames have won since 2004 is also a huge f*** you to Calgary

 

[McJadeddog]

Please explain how McDavid is helping the rest of the league earn more money?

I’d love to hear your thought process on that one considering the league has a salary cap which the players receive a pre determined amount based on tevenue, meaning that no matter what there’s a set number of money available for all players.

If McDavid takes more money it’s actually the opposite of what you suggest, because the more that high end players like McDavid take the less there is for everyone else. The size of the pie doesn’t get bigger when Mcdavid takes more, it stays the same.

So how do you figure that McDavid taking more means more money for everyone else in the PA?

Yeah, the only way that McDavid making more results in others making more is for the relative comparable players. I say relative, because there currently aren't any REAL comparable players to him. Guys like Matthews or MacKinnon could use the new McDavid contract as leverage for what they could make on next contracts. But for the majority of the players in the league, its actually bad for McDavid to make lots more, as it lessens the slice of pie they have available to them.

 

[Johnny McBravo]

Not a fan of all this Bowman hype by the Media. Would be a utterly horrendous decision

 

[McJadeddog]

The NHLPA probably didn't even care if McDavid took 14M or 12.5M last time around. Those were just rumours. If McDavid takes 16M and Drai at 14M, our window went from 6 years or so to 1 year to win the cup

Yup. If McDrai make anything approaching $30M combined, we have exactly 1 year to win a cup, and that is next year. $30M tied up in two players means we won't field a cup contending team again during McDrai's prime years, barring some absolutely RIDICULOUS cap movement in the next year or two. It would take the cap jumping up $8-10 M/year for a couple years to really allow us to build out a team around them in that scenario.

If McDrai are serious about winning a cup, the total cap hit for the 2 of them needs to be more like $20-22M if we are being honest with ourselves. $25M at the absolute most.

 

[Canovin]

If we are not trading Nurse, Shea Theodore would be a prime target(unlikely). They played well together at the WJC

 

[brentashton]

Yup. If McDrai make anything approaching $30M combined, we have exactly 1 year to win a cup, and that is next year. $30M tied up in two players means we won't field a cup contending team again during McDrai's prime years, barring some absolutely RIDICULOUS cap movement in the next year or two. It would take the cap jumping up $8-10 M/year for a couple years to really allow us to build out a team around them in that scenario.

If McDrai are serious about winning a cup, the total cap hit for the 2 of them needs to be more like $20-22M if we are being honest with ourselves. $25M at the absolute most.

They currently earn a combined 21 Million. To suggest that after winning Hart trophies and being two of the best in the league for the past 5 years they shouldn’t get any added monies on new contracts isn’t realistic.

I agree that the cap hit needs to be managed in order to assemble a supporting roster as we’ve observed how that can handcuff management if they aren’t adept at uncovering gems at low AAV, but a zero increase for both of them isn’t living in reality. I suspect 27-28 Mil combined when they are both signed.

14.5 and 13. And a bargoon at that.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Yup. If McDrai make anything approaching $30M combined, we have exactly 1 year to win a cup, and that is next year. $30M tied up in two players means we won't field a cup contending team again during McDrai's prime years, barring some absolutely RIDICULOUS cap movement in the next year or two. It would take the cap jumping up $8-10 M/year for a couple years to really allow us to build out a team around them in that scenario.

If McDrai are serious about winning a cup, the total cap hit for the 2 of them needs to be more like $20-22M if we are being honest with ourselves. $25M at the absolute most.

I guess they aren’t winning the cup because this is ridiculous.

 

[McDNicks17]

Question your conclusion looking at Parayko's data on NHL Edge and Hockey Reference.

23:52 toi (12th in league)
26 points. 23 EV
+4 on a team with -14 goalshare
+25 takeaway/giveaway (73 takeaway/48 giveaway)
All while beginning with a career high defensive zone start of 65.3% (34.7% o-zone start)

Colton Parayko Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Colton Parayko. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

NHL Edge
Personal Zone Starts Team Zone Starts
36.1% O Zone Starts 40.0%
17.9% Neutral Zone 17.8%
46.0% D Zone 41.8%
Parayko: NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters
Team: NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Teams

This is a player who plays over a third of his team's sixty minutes. Drives even strength production from the backend including 10 goals at EV. Kept his head above water with a +4 goal differential on a team result -14 with a personal +25 takeaway differential. All the while being relied on for heavily skewed defensive zone starts. Add on NHL league 63 percentile skating speed; 99 percentile shot speed; 92 percentile skating distance (90 percentile of league PK; 98 percentile EV.)

Comparing this guy to Josh Brown... really?

That all looks great until you actually look at the underlying numbers.

Like that +8 of his +/- was against an empty net. He had the third worst 5v5 GF% on the Blues. Or that his DFF% vs elites was almost dead last in the league and only ahead of Fowler and Burroughs. And 18 points at 5v5 is sub-Ceci level and that's with also playing like 300 more minutes than him.

Valuing players based on how much they play instead of how they're playing those minutes is a common trap lots of old school GMs fall into. "Minute munchers" are usually the guys getting GMs fired.

 

[McHelpus]

Not sure why Bowman is even allowed to be a GM. He will probably advocate Knoblauch to be fired so he can hire quenneville.

 

[McBooya42]

Not a fan of all this Bowman hype by the Media. Would be a utterly horrendous decision

I am absolutely positive that JJ is aware of this.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Not a fan of all this Bowman hype by the Media. Would be a utterly horrendous decision

I don't know why people keep thinking its Bowman? Based on what JJ said in the podcast, it sounds more like he wants someone he can control. He even said he's been looking at assistant GMs.

But then there's this. I may vomit

https://x.com/i/web/status/1813963595308261834

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

That all looks great until you actually look at the underlying numbers.

Like that +8 of his +/- was against an empty net. He had the third worst 5v5 GF% on the Blues. Or that his DFF% vs elites was almost dead last in the league and only ahead of Fowler and Burroughs. And 18 points at 5v5 is sub-Ceci level and that's with also playing like 300 more minutes than him.

Valuing players based on how much they play instead of how they're playing those minutes is a common trap lots of old school GMs fall into. "Minute munchers" are usually the guys getting GMs fired.

I think some advance stats skew and distort against defensive d-men even though in this situation Parayko is a productive two-way d-man. He overwhelming starts in his own end because he is trusted; plays among the most minutes in the NHL heavily tilted EV and PK because he is trusted; positive results on all fronts relative to team results.

He plays the heavy, hard minutes that often don't get acknowledged. Adding offence is secondary with little PP time and when his role is heavily skewed to defend on a team with double figure negative goal share. EV 5v5 GF% overvalues offence results without considering the reality that defending is critical.

Adding he's on the ice for those empty net situations because of the trust in his ability to defend and protect the W in critical situational play.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Maybe Bowman comes in as an advisor BS role and Darche is GM

 

[brentashton]

Maybe Bowman comes in as an advisor BS role and Darche is GM

Seriously? How many advisors, assistant GMs, special assistant to the owner, CEO emeritus can a team f***ing employ?

 

[Bobieque]

Hmm…stumbled upon this, found it interesting on Bowman from a Sheldon Kennedy write-up

https://www.respectgroupinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/my-work-with-stan-bowman-sk.pdf

If it was posted already, apologies.

I’m not for/against, but thought this gave a bit of context

 

[CrazyJoeDavola]

If this were the case he wouldn’t have knocked his last deal down a few million.

This narrative is such a myth.

He knocked his last deal down by maybe 1mil tops, probably less. That's all of a discount McD is taking in his next conty

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Hmm…stumbled upon this, found it interesting on Bowman from a Sheldon Kennedy write-up

https://www.respectgroupinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/my-work-with-stan-bowman-sk.pdf

If it was posted already, apologies.

I’m not for/against, but thought this gave a bit of context

even without the baggage, Bowman doesn't inspire much confidence for me

he's mediocre at best

 

[Cloned]

even without the baggage, Bowman doesn't inspire much confidence for me

he's mediocre at best

Exactly. Bad GM plus bad baggage.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Hmm…stumbled upon this, found it interesting on Bowman from a Sheldon Kennedy write-up

https://www.respectgroupinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/my-work-with-stan-bowman-sk.pdf

If it was posted already, apologies.

I’m not for/against, but thought this gave a bit of context

Interesting for sure. I’m in the camp that believe people can change for the good and deserve second chances. He did his punishment and by the sounds of it was accountable and did everything he could to better himself. That’s really good to hear.

I still don’t want him as GM though because I just don’t think he’s that good. Good thing is he doesn’t fit what JJ was talking about at all.

He knocked his last deal down by maybe 1mil tops, probably less. That's all of a discount McD is taking in his next conty

If that’s the case it would have nothing to do with the PA.