Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Post Free Agent Frenzy, Will JJ Show His Pimp Hand Again to Upgrade the Defense?

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Holland bet poorly on a few extensions. Kassian's and Kane's come to mind.

The danger of dealing with UFA's and in a market like Edmonton that doesn't have a ready pipeline to attract talent. Holland was poor (aka generous) with his contracts but letting guys (Kassian) walk on a thin roster would also have people losing their marbles. Kane without a bleeding out prospective fatal injury is a reasonable deal. Even with a significant injury this playoff he still provided some key moment help to within 2 goals of a Cup win.

Jackson is starting to reset contract value and term though it's built up the organization's work to finally ice a team that finally broke through to Cup Final level competition.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I don’t disagree that he should be paid and that a 30% cut is ridiculous. However there’s a difference between not taking a pay cut and pushing for way more money then you are worth.

Hockey is big business like any other. With $6 billion and growing annual revenue and franchise fees now $1 billion and escalating, I don't think it should default to players to take less than what someone will pay them. Management has an equal role in this and need to better manage their money better. There's significant systemic issue of players being abused by a colluding Players Association with ownership and manipulating salaries to underpay them.

All lead to a modern era of players as partners who like any employee are within their right to negotiate a deal that satisfy their respective needs. Hindsight tells us this is a massive overpay with Nurse. But hindsight also tells us they should not have double bridged this cornerstone player twice to pay for the sins of other poor contract management.

Oil are paying a high price for a decade of bad management.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The danger of dealing with UFA's and in a market like Edmonton that doesn't have a ready pipeline to attract talent. Holland was poor (aka generous) with his contracts but letting guys (Kassian) walk on a thin roster would also have people losing their marbles. Kane without a bleeding out prospective fatal injury is a reasonable deal. Even with a significant injury this playoff he still provided some key moment help to within 2 goals of a Cup win.

Jackson is starting to reset contract value and term though it's built up the organization's work to finally ice a team that finally broke through to Cup Final level competition.

There's also just a supreme lack of foresight with extensions. Jackson's deals are all extremely reasonable in dollar and term whereas Holland set about with lengthy terms as a means to lower the cap hit per year... but it really didn't end up working out that way.

Really, Jackson showed us what actual thought going into management looks like instead of operating on... whatever the hell Holland used.

Like Nurse's extension is a prime example of what not to do. Even putting the bridge deals aside, he gave Nurse a full NMC which is meant to lower the overall cap hit... Which, if it did, is extremely frightening to think about. NMCs are the signs of a management that doesn't know what it's doing. A higher cap hit is actually preferable to any sort of trade clause.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

There's also just a supreme lack of foresight with extensions. Jackson's deals are all extremely reasonable in dollar and term whereas Holland set about with lengthy terms as a means to lower the cap hit per year... but it really didn't end up working out that way.

Really, Jackson showed us what actual thought going into management looks like instead of operating on... whatever the hell Holland used.

Like Nurse's extension is a prime example of what not to do. Even putting the bridge deals aside, he gave Nurse a full NMC which is meant to lower the overall cap hit... Which, if it did, is extremely frightening to think about. NMCs are the signs of a management that doesn't know what it's doing. A higher cap hit is actually preferable to any sort of trade clause.

I fully value the Summer of Jeff. That said he's at a different phase of this organization's development coming off a Game 7 Final loss. It's easy to pitch the finish line and negotiate with a goal to finish the job. Holland picked up the pieces of a cap threshold lottery team with very thin NHL depth. He had a far different phase trying to attract talent to a backwater free agent destination. Not defending him. Has been good on Hyman and Nuge deals so some good with some awful.

But we are seeing in Jackson the importance and value of trained professionals in contract negotiation; pro-active strategic vision; and ability to find and appraise value. Regarding NT and NMC contracts, the league and teams have shown ability to work around them to move such players. Not sure that's the case on a team that was two goals away from winning the Stanley Cup and got better this off-season. Why would anyone choose to leave if they wield the contract control to play for immortality.

 

[Cloned]

I fully value the Summer of Jeff. That said he's at a different phase of this organization's development coming off a Game 7 Final loss. It's easy to pitch the finish line and negotiate with a goal to finish the job. Holland picked up the pieces of a cap threshold lottery team with very thin NHL depth. He had a far different phase trying to attract talent to a backwater free agent destination. Not defending him. Has been good on Hyman and Nuge deals so some good with some awful.

But we are seeing in Jackson the importance and value of trained professionals in contract negotiation; pro-active strategic vision; and ability to find and appraise value. Regarding NT and NMC contracts, the league and teams have shown ability to work around them to move such players. Not sure that's the case on a team that was two goals away from winning the Stanley Cup and got better this off-season. Why would anyone choose to leave if they wield the contract control to play for immortality.

Not sure why teams don’t hire agents to be executives more often. Agents are usually the best in their field and have all the knowledge and experience needed, with the added bonus of being on the other side for a long time.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Not sure why teams don’t hire agents to be executives more often. Agents are usually the best in their field and have all the knowledge and experience needed, with the added bonus of being on the other side for a long time.

Because sometimes you get JJ, sometimes you get Brian Lawton.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Not sure why teams don’t hire agents to be executives more often. Agents are usually the best in their field and have all the knowledge and experience needed, with the added bonus of being on the other side for a long time.

Probably because the best agents who could have success on the other side of the table likely don’t want to. They’re making bank repping players.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I fully value the Summer of Jeff. That said he's at a different phase of this organization's development coming off a Game 7 Final loss. It's easy to pitch the finish line and negotiate with a goal to finish the job. Holland picked up the pieces of a cap threshold lottery team with very thin NHL depth. He had a far different phase trying to attract talent to a backwater free agent destination. Not defending him. Has been good on Hyman and Nuge deals so some good with some awful.

But we are seeing in Jackson the importance and value of trained professionals in contract negotiation; pro-active strategic vision; and ability to find and appraise value. Regarding NT and NMC contracts, the league and teams have shown ability to work around them to move such players. Not sure that's the case on a team that was two goals away from winning the Stanley Cup and got better this off-season. Why would anyone choose to leave if they wield the contract control to play for immortality.

Clauses are negotiable for sure, but they're still a sign of poor management.

I remember at one point over a decade ago half the Flames roster were on some form of NTC. We all know how good those teams were.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Fixable? Lmao. This is a player who's biggest knock has always been he has no brain for the game, and your thinking it gets fixed at 30 years old? I mean I guess it's possible, but I wouldn't bet anything on it.

Well, he is 29 until February. Plenty of players in a myriad of sports have slightly reinvented themselves as they get older. He has won scholastic awards in the past so he does have intelligence. His game just needs some tweaking.

Due to this new system, perhaps he needs to work more on blending the mental and somatic aspects of his game. A little less running and a little more mental simulations and repetitive tasks such as look, pass, or skate.

He needs to turn that into Procedural Knowledge. Which is believed to be a three step process.

"Many theories propose a three-stage process of learning as shown in Figure 1:

(a) the first stage is for acquiring declarative knowledge to perform a procedural task-that is, enough knowledge to generate a behavior using the declarative knowledge structure, like following a script or a recipe;

(b) the second stage is for consolidating the acquired knowledge; and

(c) the final stage is for tuning the knowledge toward overlearning. Fitts (1964) labeled these three stages of learning early, intermediate, and late phases."

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Not sure why teams don’t hire agents to be executives more often. Agents are usually the best in their field and have all the knowledge and experience needed, with the added bonus of being on the other side for a long time.

That's clearly become a standard versus outlier practise. But doesn't mean that teams don't warehouse Assistant GM's with legal and/or business backgrounds as specialists to manage contracts and cap compliance.

Quite likely a salary consideration as well. Likely not economically feasible for top agents to take anything less than head of organization jobs while taking on life stressors of team performance and tons of considerations beyond their control.

I picked up the book Ice Storm about Mike Gillis's hiring and modern approaches in many areas with the Canucks. Crazy how much pushback there was from hockey traditionalists to creating a culture of innovation to trial and adopt new approaches to drive a winning organization. Change is hard for deep rooted establishment industries (and people).

 

[Cloned]

Probably because the best agents who could have success on the other side of the table likely don’t want to. They’re making bank repping players.

Fair point, although I’d imagine a lot of owners would have the cash to make enticing offers.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Clauses are negotiable for sure, but they're still a sign of poor management.

I remember at one point over a decade ago half the Flames roster were on some form of NTC. We all know how good those teams were.

They can be for sure. I think with the Oilers's it's also been a statement with and for their core group that they have full belief in them. Edmonton has never been a destination for free agents through long, extended dark times without classic overpay. Signing their homegrown core has always been highest priority including trade provision protection.

Totally agree the no trade clauses and variations are far too easily given up within NHL player negotiations.

 

[McShogun99]

I don't blame Nurse for his contract. I blame him for his performance post-extension. Holland really should've taken the time to hammer out a deal instead of getting spooked that Nurse would leave.

Nurse seems like he's mailed it in since he got paid. Up until he signed his contract he was looking like potentially a top Dman in the league.

 

[Fourier]

Hockey is big business like any other. With $6 billion and growing annual revenue and franchise fees now $1 billion and escalating, I don't think it should default to players to take less than what someone will pay them. Management has an equal role in this and need to better manage their money better. There's significant systemic issue of players being abused by a colluding Players Association with ownership and manipulating salaries to underpay them.

All lead to a modern era of players as partners who like any employee are within their right to negotiate a deal that satisfy their respective needs. Hindsight tells us this is a massive overpay with Nurse. But hindsight also tells us they should not have double bridged this cornerstone player twice to pay for the sins of other poor contract management.

Oil are paying a high price for a decade of bad management.

The salary cap and revenue splitting does make the NHL different from most $6B revenue businesses. Under current rules players need to balance their desire to maximize their pay with a desire to win. The latter may well make a decision to leave $1M on the table an easier one for a player who may already be looking at $200M in career earnings even after a discount.

For a guy like McDavid specifically I also think that there is tangible monetary value in winning. If he leads the Oilers to a cup I think he could add to his already substantial endorsement earnings both while he is playing and afterwards. Businesses like to be associated with perceived winners. While i don't personally think that he has to win to prove he is amongst the very best ever, not everyone shares this perspective.

 

[Canovin]

Moral of the story: Sign your core guys to 8 year deals as soon as they're off their ELC. Don't bridge them. And especially don't bridge them twice directly to UFA.

If the Oilers sign Nurse to 6M x 8 years after his ELC. 6M would still be overpay based on his current play. So the moral of the story really is don't regress and mail it in after a big contract

 

[jeg]

looking through the D doesn't seem to be ton available id consider better then Ceci although who knows whos actually available

NYR want to move Trouba, would a deal around Ceci/Kulak for Trouba work (plus or minus equalizing parts) NYR seem to have a few defensive holes that these two boys could fill considering the risk is basically only one year

 

[Fourier]

If the Oilers sign Nurse to 6M x 8 years after his ELC. 6M would still be overpay based on his current play. So the moral of the story really is don't regress and mail it in after a big contract

I don't think the bolded can be justified. Part of the reason that every mistake Nurse makes is so heavily highlighted is that that he has a $9.25M cap hit. Put most of the guys earning $6M under the same microscope and in the same role and Nurse would come out quite a bit ahead I think. We are in a time where the Zadorov's of this world are getting 6 year $5M deals.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Hockey is big business like any other. With $6 billion and growing annual revenue and franchise fees now $1 billion and escalating, I don't think it should default to players to take less than what someone will pay them. Management has an equal role in this and need to better manage their money better. There's significant systemic issue of players being abused by a colluding Players Association with ownership and manipulating salaries to underpay them.

All lead to a modern era of players as partners who like any employee are within their right to negotiate a deal that satisfy their respective needs. Hindsight tells us this is a massive overpay with Nurse. But hindsight also tells us they should not have double bridged this cornerstone player twice to pay for the sins of other poor contract management.

Oil are paying a high price for a decade of bad management.

Players don’t try and take their teams to the cleaners if it improves their chances at winning all the time. No it shouldn’t be the default but in a cap world that’s how it is. Holland is an idiot for offering that contract but let’s not pretend Nurse is above criticism.

It’s a business but it’s also teams trying to achieve their ultimate child hood dream together. It’s not comparable to a regular business.

Moral of the story: Sign your core guys to 8 year deals as soon as they're off their ELC. Don't bridge them. And especially don't bridge them twice directly to UFA.

And know when to walk away if their asking price is ridiculous.

 

[Canovin]

I don't think the bolded can be justified. Part of the reason that every mistake Nurse makes is so heavily highlighted is that that he has a $9.25M cap hit. Put most of the guys earning $6M under the same microscope and in the same role and Nurse would come out quite a bit ahead I think. We are in a time where the Zadorov's of this world are getting 6 year $5M deals.

Nurse has gotten worse after the 9.25M deal. What if he doesn't develop further and mail it in after the ELC deal?

With hindsight, the best course of action would have been to trade him for the best available Dman or D prospect instead of giving him the 9.25M deal

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The salary cap and revenue splitting does make the NHL different from most $6B revenue businesses. Under current rules players need to balance their desire to maximize their pay with a desire to win. The latter may well make a decision to leave $1M on the table an easier one for a player who may already be looking at $200M in career earnings even after a discount.

For a guy like McDavid specifically I also think that there is tangible monetary value in winning. If he leads the Oilers to a cup I think he could add to his already substantial endorsement earnings both while he is playing and afterwards. Businesses like to be associated with perceived winners. While i don't personally think that he has to win to prove he is amongst the very best ever, not everyone shares this perspective.

Fair point, there is a financial ceiling on the NHL industry.

That said now beyond the covid stalled cap era business is good and cap expected to revert back to its annualized upward growth. I think we've both made the same point about player circumstances - a financially established player is more likely flexible to 'discount' his salary pending a few considerations, winning environment; family; lifestyle options; favourable tax regimes. The original point I responded to suggested Nurse should have taken something like a 30%+ discount from the free agent market circumstances he was in.

McDavid is the rarest of all breeds. Rocketing to all time elite status with generational wealth still in prime years and growing endorsement revenue stream. He is insatiable in pursuit of winning and all else financially follows suit.

Regarding Nurse and Oilers management they both wear the millstone of a contract negotiated when it was and following years of kicking it forward via the CBA drag measures in place. I thought Nurse might come in around $8 million annual mark but when the crazy number landed there was no way he would cover its value. But I'm not sure anyone saw this much regression coming in his game.

 

[McDNicks17]

Nurse has gotten worse after the 9.25M deal. What if he doesn't develop further and mail it in after the ELC deal?

Then you've got a much easier contract to move.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Players don’t try and take their teams to the cleaners if it improves their chances at winning all the time. No it shouldn’t be the default but in a cap world that’s how it is. Holland is an idiot for offering that contract but let’s not pretend Nurse is above criticism.

It’s a business but it’s also teams trying to achieve their ultimate child hood dream together. It’s not comparable to a regular business.


And know when to walk away if their asking price is ridiculous.

Who said Nurse is above criticism? He chose to sign for maximum market value and the responsibility and accountability that comes with it. Contracts are jointly negotiated and signed. There's no winner here.

Ultimately poor Oiler management groups over years helped put this organization in cap jeopardy with poor signings; contracts; and buy-outs. Dragging Nurse's salary when they could to squeeze money for other roster decisions came to roost.

Players choose to move for a variety of reasons. We saw the dismantling of a 50 win team in Calgary because two players didn't want to play in Canada. One has succeeded the other is in hockey purgatory.

 

[Fourier]

Nurse has gotten worse after the 9.25M deal. What if he doesn't develop further and mail it in after the ELC deal?

With hindsight, the best course of action would have been to trade him for the best available Dman or D prospect instead of giving him the 9.25M deal

Your hindsight move would have been almost impossible for a GM. Nurse was one of the team's undisputed leaders at the time and their only defenseman who could reasonably be asked to play the role he was given, The defensemen going into the start of the 2021-22 season were Nurse, Bouchard Barrie, Ceci, Keith Russel and Kulak. After the season Nurse had and the disappointing result the team had in the playoffs there is virtually no scenario under which the team would have moved him without it looking like they were folding the ten.

Nurse's contract was the result of a confluence of things starting with several years of bad cap management that forced a short bridge and a seeming big reset in the value of defenseman. But there was also immense pressure not to move backwards with McDavid on the roster. Frankly, a deal at $8M at the time would have been very fair. And even in his current role it would not have been that much of an overpay, perhaps $1M or so. Spend the $2.25M to upgrade Ceci to a $5.5M defenseman and this version of Nurse at $7m with a partner better suited his game would be fine.

 

[Soundwave]

Nurse seems like he's mailed it in since he got paid. Up until he signed his contract he was looking like potentially a top Dman in the league.

I don't think it's a lack of effort. He is just buckling under the strain of playing very good teams in the playoffs where you can't get away with some of the same things you can in game 47 of the regular season and yeah that contract weighs on him, think he got a reality check that he's not as good as he thought he was.

Its become obvious he's been surpassed by both Ekholm and Bouchard on the D depth chart.

 

[foshizzle]

This simply isn't accurate. He is more than fine at moving it out with his feet, and his passing accuracy also increases tenfold because he's in motion opening lanes and shortening up passing distance.

Problem is he stands around most of the time looking to hit stretch passes and misses a strong majority of them. When he moves his feet his effectiveness breaking out improves dramatically, especially if he skates it over his own blue line and leads the rush out. "Less is more" means less rush breakouts, more stretch passes, and more icings/turnovers.

When has ever, in his career, been able to move the puck out with his feet? He has never, ever been able to break the puck out. Even in juniors he couldn’t. He can join rushes- but he isn’t any sort of puck transporter at all