Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | All Star Break Edition

[Behind Enemy Lines]

That's the risk. As someone who deals with back issues I am probably more sensitive than many to this risk. But as @Behind Enemy Lines has pointed out he has been very reliable for a few years now.

What I am not sure about is the timing of a move for a guy like Parayko. At the deadline there may be other options that are also as consequential but are less costly. Parayko could be an add in the off season when costs seem to be less.

Parayko is highly durable as I've pointed out before averaging 23 minutes toi which actually increased in the playoffs (post injury). He's over 90+ percentile in skating distance each of the last three years so no issue with his playing and absorbing big minutes ... which would actually reduce on a quality big four Oilers defense. NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

I looked in depth at his poor season last year. His elevator drop +/- was largely driven by the team's collapse October to December with massive injuries. Mid-January or so to end of season, Parayko was near a neutral, zero +/-, even though the Blues were big sellers. Elite defenders age later and well. His skating per Edge is 71% of all NHL players with ability to play huge minutes.

Cup winners feature big top four defense corps

St Louis Blues Cup 2019:

Peter Angel: 6'3" 215
Parayko: 6'6" 228
Bouwmeester: 6' 4" 206
Edmundson: 6'5" 221

Tampa Bay Lightning Cup - 2020:

Hedman: 6'7" 244
McDonagh:6'1" 215
Sergachev: 6'1" 217
Cernak: 6'4" 224

Tampa Bay Lightning Cup - 2021:

Hedman: 6'7" 244
McDonagh:6'1" 215
Sergachev: 6'1" 217
Cernak: 6'4" 224

Colorado Avalanche Cup - 2022:
Makar: 5'11" 187
Toews: 6' 1" 191
Byram: 6'1" 190
Girard 7 games played: 5'10" 170
Manson: 6'3" 218

Vegas Golden Showers - 2023
Peter Angel: 6'3" 215
Martinez: 6'1 210
Theadore: 6'2" 197
Whitecloud: 6'2" 207

Colorado is wildly the outlier for recent Cup winning D. They also have the best defenseman in the world and probably the only d who can go 1 on 1 defending McDavid (which he did in their head to head playoff). Even still they had to rejig their d-corp to get over the hump after Vegas big forwards ran over their young skill d-corp the playoff year prior & did so with big veteran d's, Manson and Johnson and Johnson.

The play is Parayko to stabilize Oilers team defending; add a stifling shutdown guy who takes the elite opposition match-ups; is a top PK guy; and can also support 2PP with an elite heavy shot that tops out at 100 MPH. Build a wall around Skinner to protect their young, developing goaltender and give this team a better d-man to help outlet to forwards; can also carry the puck; and help with some secondary offensive shot threat from the point.

Per Vegas head coach:
“For right now, that’s how we’re built and it’s working for us,” Cassidy said. “It’s not always the physical part. It’s the length sometimes to get inside, right? That’s the system you play. Your stick length, you’re just getting into people when you’re longer and taller and heavier and wear people down.”

Oilers have the most unproven goaltender. Build a wall to protect him. They will potentially face strong offensive teams like Colorado, Vegas, Vancouver and even LA. Upgrade their d is the best way to go toe to toe with elite playoff contenders.

 

[Oilers88]

Make of it what you will, but this is where Jeff Jackson came from?

Tarasenko will only play for the Oilers, confirmed. 7th rounder pick for him at 50% at the deadline, then he re-signs for the league minimum.

 

[Old Boys Club]

You’re acting like it’s a chasm of difference between these two teams when really the difference is razor thin, it doesn’t take much for that to reverse, especially when you consider the age of Vegas best players and the fact that long seasons are likely to wear on them more.

This reminds me a lot of the year before last where Markstrom and Calgary had our number in the regular season, we got them in the second round and many fans didn’t think we had a chance. They beat us first game and everyone melted down and then we came back and beat them four straight and have owned them ever since.

When things are this close it doesn’t take much for trends to reverse.

Difference being the VGK are proven winners while the Flames were complete frauds. VGK have multiple SCF appearances in the last 7 years, pretty much perennially in the WCF, only missing the playoffs once in their existence because of a year with insane injuries.

Flames were buoyed by Gaudreau having an insane season to fatten his retirement contract, that guy is the epitome of not giving a shit about winning. Signing in Columbus just further signified he was content to collect his paycheque and miss the dance every year.

 

[alphahelix]

the Oilers % of guys with stone hands is 'too DAMN high!'

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

the Oilers % of guys with stone hands is 'too DAMN high!'

Well, at least last night, Desharnais was not among them.

 

[Canovin]

If Tarasenko waives to the Oilers, he most likely re-signs as well. 4 x 4M?

 

[StoveTopStauffer]

Who is the cap we move for Tarasenko? Kane?

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Make of it what you will, but this is where Jeff Jackson came from?

Jackson came from Wasserman (formerly Orr Hockey Group), not Newport

 

[Soundwave]

Who is the cap we move for Tarasenko? Kane?

I think you'd have to get double retention to make it work.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Difference being the VGK are proven winners, while the Flames were complete frauds. VGK have multiple SCF appearances in the last 7 years, pretty much perennially in the WCF, only missing the playoffs once in their existence because of a year with insane injuries.

That’s true, but statistically the Flames had been one of the best teams in the league that year and Markstrom one of the best goalies.

Another comparison I can see parallels would be the Bulls vs Celtics rivalry. Celtics had their number and it seemed like the Bulls just couldn’t get over that hump. But the two teams were going in opposite directions Celtics with an aging core of players and Bulls with a core entering prime, kind of like Vegas and Edmonton. Once the Bulls broke through Boston became an afterthought.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Jackson came from Wasserman (formerly Orr Hockey Group), not Newport

Thank you, sorry for the confusion.

 

[Canovin]

That’s true, but statistically the Flames had been one of the best teams in the league that year and Markstrom one of the best goalies.

Another comparison I can see parallels would be the Bulls vs Celtics rivalry. Celtics had their number and it seemed like the Bulls just couldn’t get over that hump. But the two teams were going in opposite directions Celtics with an aging core of players and Bulls with a core entering prime, kind of like Vegas and Edmonton. Once the Bulls broke through Boston became an afterthought.

Aren't Oilers the older team than Vegas?

 

[Soundwave]

That’s true, but statistically the Flames had been one of the best teams in the league that year and Markstrom one of the best goalies.

Another comparison I can see parallels would be the Bulls vs Celtics rivalry. Celtics had their number and it seemed like the Bulls just couldn’t get over that hump. But the two teams were going in opposite directions Celtics with an aging core of players and Bulls with a core entering prime, kind of like Vegas and Edmonton. Once the Bulls broke through Boston became an afterthought.

I think you mean the Pistons. The other problem with that analogy is the Pistons beat the Bulls like 3 times in a row in the playoffs (88, 89, 90) before they finally broke through, lol.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

The thing is it's not just us that Hill has been killing. I posted this in the other thread, but these are his numbers against the top teams he's played this year:

This season Adin Hill

1.000 save percentage versus Vancouver
1.000 save percentage versus Colorado
0.968 versus Edmonton
0. 946 versus Dallas (2 games)
0.947 versus NYR

Against Colorado the dude put up a 41 save shut out. His numbers go *up* against the best teams somehow.

Either this is the greatest goaltender heater in the history of the sport and this guy is the luckiest goalie to ever play or something else is happening here, like a new goaltending superstar is establishing himself. Because otherwise I can't explain this at all, even Binnington and Ward had a significant drop off after their Cup wins.

I can’t take anything away from Hill, he has been outstanding but I think a lot of it has to do with the team in front of him, how they play and how that meshes with his style of play.

I don’t think he’s truly elite but rather above average. We’ll see in 2-3 years as Vegas regresses, I’d wager Hill’s numbers will start to look very pedestrian and at that point he won’t be defendable as an elite goaltender and people who’ve held that view will throw out the excuse that the team is hanging him out to dry and any goalie would fail behind them.

I think he’s just another in a long line of average to above average goalies who look elite behind a very defensive sound team with strong structure.

 

[oXo Cube]

Who is the cap we move for Tarasenko? Kane?

I think you'd have to get double retention to make it work.

According to capfriendly, presuming they make no more moves between today and the trade deadline the Oilers have accrued cap space to add a 2.375M annual hit. We could add Tarasenko just by having Ottawa retain 50% and waiving Gagner or Brown.

Of course if that's your play any other moves after that have to be dollar in dollar out.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Aren't Oilers the older team than Vegas?

I’m sure it’s possible but the Oilers team has alot of their age at the bottom of the roster but their best players are all mid to late 20’s whereas the bulk of Vegas difference makers are in their mid 30’s.

 

[McAsuno]

Him on either McDrai's line would be

 

[Soundwave]

I can’t take anything away from Hill, he has been outstanding but I think a lot of it has to do with the team in front of him, how they play and how that meshes with his style of play.

I don’t think he’s truly elite but rather above average. We’ll see in 2-3 years as Vegas regresses, I’d wager Hill’s numbers will start to look very pedestrian and at that point he won’t be defendable as an elite goaltender and people who’ve held that view will throw out the excuse that the team is hanging him out to dry and any goalie would fail behind them.

I think he’s just another in a long line of average to above average goalies who look elite behind a very defensive sound team with strong structure.

The other reason I'm not sold on the "it's just their defense though!" is that Thompson and Brossoit played behind the same exact D and have no where the same numbers. Their D is terrific, no doubt, but Hill has massively better numbers.

We saw that first hand, games 1 and 2 against Vegas with Brossoit in net were a cake walk compared to games 3-6 with Hill in net. We went from scoring quite easily to things going dry fairly quick.

We've played them 5 times with Hill and they've won 4/5 times.

At some point this isn't just a fluke.

If Hill is average, then this is the greatest heater in the history of the NHL for a goalie IMO. He is the luckiest goalie to ever play. It's either that or he's actually good.

 

[ujju2]

It was 1 loss boys and girls. 1 loss dictated by Hill standing on his head that entire game. It's like most of you have never watched a full season and have never seen a goalie steal a game. We were the better team for most of that game and we destroyed them in the second. The amount of over reaction here is hilarious.

It's not overreaction. Nobody wants to blow things up. But we couldn't beat the Knights in the playoffs last year, and last night seemed like the same. We need to make the right moves to get past this team because we will play them again in the playoffs this year.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Big issue I notice with the 2nd line is if Drai is having an off game, the entire line struggles to carry and maintain control of the puck.

If you're looking at an external fit I'd prefer a speedy, puck carrying playmaker Iike Duclair vs. another guy that likes to go to soft spots in coverage and wait for the puck to come to them (Tarasenko or Guentzel).


Though truth be told, I think the answer is already in the room: Both McLeod and Holloway look confident with the puck on their stick. I think it's still a little early for Holloway, but there's no reason why you can't run McLeod there.

RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Mcleod-Drai-Kane/Foegele
Kane/Foegele-Holloway-Perry

 

[Jet Walters]

I’ve wanted Parayko as the perfect Ceci upgrade for a while, but if that’s the play it’s about all the Oilers could add considering there’s no way the Blues retain on a contact with that term. I’m guessing a Campbell dump is not feasible in season, so it’s really hard to fit him in without moving Ceci plus Foegele. The Blues will also exhaust every effort to move either Krug or Faulk before Parayko.

RNH has been underwhelming at even strength, so maybe Guentzel makes sense to allow RNH to drop down with Drai. They’ve had success in the past and RNH has played well with Foegele too. That leaves Kane on the 3rd line with McLeod and Perry, which could be interesting. Still want an upgrade on Ryan at 4C.

 

[McAsuno]

Oilers linked to:
Barabanov, Lyubushkin, Sean Walker, Maroon, Edmundson, Boqvist, Henrique, Duclair, and Allen

 

[McDNicks17]

Big issue I notice with the 2nd line is if Drai is having an off game, the entire line struggles to carry and maintain control of the puck.

If you're looking at an external fit I'd prefer a speedy, puck carrying playmaker Iike Duclair vs. another guy that likes to go to soft spots in coverage and wait for the puck to come to them (Tarasenko or Guentzel).


Though truth be told, I think the answer is already in the room: Both McLeod and Holloway look confident with the puck on their stick. I think it's still a little early for Holloway, but there's no reason why you can't run McLeod there.

RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Mcleod-Drai-Kane/Foegele
Kane/Foegele-Holloway-Perry

Agreed. You definitely notice when Drai's line is struggling that they struggle to create chances not finish them.

If they do look to add that #2RW, a guy with puck-carrying and passing ability like Konecny makes a lot more sense than someone like Guentzel or Tarasenko to me.

Eberle or even Tatar out of Seattle might be the cheaper more realistic options to fill that role.

 

[oXo Cube]

Big issue I notice with the 2nd line is if Drai is having an off game, the entire line struggles to carry and maintain control of the puck.

If you're looking at an external fit I'd prefer a speedy, puck carrying playmaker Iike Duclair vs. another guy that likes to go to soft spots in coverage and wait for the puck to come to them (Tarasenko or Guentzel).


Though truth be told, I think the answer is already in the room: Both McLeod and Holloway look confident with the puck on their stick. I think it's still a little early for Holloway, but there's no reason why you can't run McLeod there.

RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Mcleod-Drai-Kane/Foegele
Kane/Foegele-Holloway-Perry

Drai needs to play with another player who isn't an immediate turnover whenever they have to handle the puck in any area that isn't a scoring position.

The steady diet of Kane, Foegele, Brown is really limiting his effectiveness because he has to do 100% of the playmaking on his own. It's no surprise he looked way better with McLeod.

 

[McDNicks17]

Oilers linked to:
Barabanov, Lyubushkin, Sean Walker, Maroon, Edmundson, Boqvist, Henrique, Duclair, and Allen

Barabanov would be a sneaky good add since the price is probably next to nothing.

He's a guy that would probably be a good fit with Drai too. Good two-way guy that's strong on retrievals, but a solid passer and puck carrier too.