Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | All Star Break Edition

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GOilers88

#FreeMoustacheRides
Dec 24, 2016
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It feels to me like no one has shown they can score/beat them with Hill in net.

13-2-2 record this year, what was his playoff record? Through 3 playoff rounds last year, he only lost 4 times total, in our series, we only beat him 1 time after he entered the series.

We've played the Knights with Hill in five games from last playoffs onwards and lost 4/5 times.

I'm not sure anyone can beat these guys right now, beating them 4 out of 7 games is going to be tall order. They were already a good team before, they managed to somehow add a goalie that plays at a .935 rate for them. We need some adds at the deadline that would change this dynamic.

It's going to be a daunting task to beat them in a playoff round. We gave them almost nothing last night and they still capitalized on the few mistakes we did make and the other end, they are just a force defensively with Hill in net. And they had no Eichel or Theodore in either.

I don't think I've seen a team in the last 10 years that is as good defensively + has a goalie that good in tandem. When you do get past their D some how, Hill looks like he's 6 foot 10 in net and be opportunistic.

Our "we blew that chance, or over passed on that play, no biggie" style of offence through a volume of chances really doesn't work well against their style either. You can't leave chances on the table against them, you have to capitalize.

We need to like somehow add Tarasenko (sniper), Tanev (Ceci replacement), MAF (goalie wildcard).

I'm not sure if anyone can break their defensive shell and break Hill on top of that.

They're about as good of a back end as any Cup winner I've seen in the last 10 years, we can't get any offence going against them with Hill in net and it's the same story for pretty much everyone else since the playoffs last year.

Even 2022 Colorado we were able to at least score against them without anywhere near this much fuss.

They are just a juggernaut of a team. Deep forward group, 1-6 their D it's very hard to draw any of them out of position and when they do make a mistake, Hill is a giant in net.

Of course we'll try our best, but man, they are an absolute wagon of a team with Hill in.

We've played Hill 5 times now, we've lost 4/5 of those games.

It's not like we haven't been trying 100% in those games either.

Our offense again last night, 5 on 5 ... nothing doing.

Even on things like the Draisaitl empty net chance, their D played that fairly well, there were 2 Vegas players on top of Draisaitl that pushed him to a weird angle and then rushed the shot. They just don't give us any clean looks and when they do, Hill is there.

It's not just us either, as far as I can tell no one has gotten any traction against them with Hill in. They shredded us from game 3 on when he came in, destroyed Dallas, and destroyed Florida too. This year he's 13-2-2 or whatever it is. If anyone has answers for this team, I'm not seeing it yet.

They spanked Vancouver the one game they played them too, and looking at that game, looks like Thompson allowed 1 goal, got hurt or something and then Hill comes in and then shuts them out for the rest of the game. They win 4-1.

Of course you still try your best. It's not like effort has been an issue for us, we play as hard as we can against them, I don't think anyone can say we haven't given our 100% effort against them. The team had given it their all against them the 5 times we've played a Hill version of them, but we just can't get any traction.

We get a 1 goal lead early on maybe and then they just shut the door and wait for us to make a mistake and take advantage.

No one seems to have an answer for them, Vancouver got slapped silly by them and had no answers for Hill either the one time they played.

Hyman and Draisaitl don't seem to be able to get anything going against Hill either.

5 games now, 1 goal for Hyman, 0 for Draisaitl, 0 for Kane. Foegele actually has 2 goals against him, but you're right, he's not a top 6 forward on a cup contender.

McDavid has 4 goals in 5 games against Hill, the rest of our forward group is having massive problems get the puck past their D and past him.

But I guess show me any forward group that's been able to get a lot against him since the playoffs last year. There isn't one. Against Vancouver this year, Hill came into a game and shut them out.

We don't get that many AAA open looks. Even the Draisaitl miss, two Vegas players were on his ass and he was angled out at a very sharp angle, that's not as clean of a look as people think.

Even when McDavid is able to shake them out of their coverage (it's usually McDavid as the only one doing it), they recover fast.

At some point you just have to tip your hat I guess. They play D about as well as I've seen it played by any team. Even their bottom pairing has sticks in passing lanes, bodies in passing lane, almost non-stop. And then when you do get a good look, you have Hill to deal with.

And they didn't even have arguably their best D (Theodore) in last night. It doesn't change how they play at all.

The thing is it's not just us that Hill has been killing. I posted this in the other thread, but these are his numbers against the top teams he's played this year:

This season Adin Hill

1.000 save percentage versus Vancouver
1.000 save percentage versus Colorado
0.968 versus Edmonton
0. 946 versus Dallas (2 games)
0.947 versus NYR

Against Colorado the dude put up a 41 save shut out. His numbers go *up* against the best teams somehow.

Either this is the greatest goaltender heater in the history of the sport and this guy is the luckiest goalie to ever play or something else is happening here, like a new goaltending superstar is establishing himself. Because otherwise I can't explain this at all, even Binnington and Ward had a significant drop off after their Cup wins.

The other reason I'm not sold on the "it's just their defense though!" is that Thompson and Brossoit played behind the same exact D and have no where the same numbers. Their D is terrific, no doubt, but Hill has massively better numbers.

We saw that first hand, games 1 and 2 against Vegas with Brossoit in net were a cake walk compared to games 3-6 with Hill in net. We went from scoring quite easily to things going dry fairly quick.

We've played them 5 times with Hill and they've won 4/5 times.

At some point this isn't just a fluke.

If Hill is average, then this is the greatest heater in the history of the NHL for a goalie IMO. He is the luckiest goalie to ever play. It's either that or he's actually good.

I dunno I think they might just be that good.

We’ve played pretty much all the top teams the last two years … IMO I haven’t seen a back end as good as theirs (D with Hill in) for a while. Defensively they give up little and they may have somehow found a Vezina tier goalie from nothing.

McDavid is the only forward scoring on Hill, Hyman and RNH can barely piss a drop, Draisaitl and Kane have been shut out full stop in 5 games against Hill.

Even Colorado 2022, we were able to break loose and put some goals on the board.
If you think they're invincible why not just say that? It would be much easier and less tedious than what you're doing.

Aside from that, with all due respect to Adin Hill, and he is earning a ton right now, you are very literally looking at a 34 game sample size and talking him into mythical proportions.

This isn't me comparing the two either. But over just the last 18 games, which is all Hill has played so far this year, Skinner has posted a .936/1.66 compared to Hill's .938/1.88

Again, Hill has been a monster over the last 34 games he's played, but there was 85 games prior to that where he wasn't playing at a Vezina caliber. I think you're absolutely overstating things at this point in time. You're also forgetting to mention that Vegas had a slide earlier this year too.

After a torrid 11-2 start in October, they went 6-8 in November, 7-6 in December and 7-6 in January. They are a very good team, but they are not this invincible machine you're trying to make them out to be.
 
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iCanada

Registered User
Feb 6, 2010
20,308
21,318
Edmonton
Really feel like the Oilers should be a lot more linked to Tarasenko then they have been. How is he not exactly what the media has been saying we're looking for?

Waiting this month out is going to suuuuuuuuck.

Staois is their GM. I'm confident we're in on Tarasenko.

It's probably just low on the radar because there's no big buzz or leaks based on that relationship.
 

Oilers88

Registered User
Jun 19, 2011
818
1,809
Capitals looking like they could blow things up and be sellers this year. 7 points out of a wildcard spot now, and a goal differential of -34. Woof. 3-6-1 their last 10 games. Jensen at 50% and Dowd would save the Oilers 750k or so if
Ceci was moved out for a pick. I’d guess that costs about what Toronto paid for McCabe at 50% and Lafferty at the deadline last year. Broberg, 2nd, and Lavoie would be my prediction.
Stauffer mentioned Dowd/Jensen/Lindgren a few days ago, with the idea being that Washington could bundle them together to get a good asset. I don't know if Washington would eat 50% on Jensen given that he has 2 years left after this one, but they might not need to. If they eat 50% on Dowd and Lindgren, they're retaining $1.2 million for next year only. Those two plus Jensen at full freight would be $5.25 million against the cap. If we trade Ceci, send down Janmark to make room for Dowd, and demote Pickard to make room for Lindgren, it works out to $5.0125 million going out. When you factor in that we're only getting a part of their cap hits at the deadline, the cap consequences are pretty negligible. I would think a first, a good prospect, and maybe a third for retention gets it done. That would leave us with enough cap space to pursue a winger like Eberle or Tarasenko for top 6 help.

Something like this would be our equivalent of what Colorado did in 2022 (Manson, Sturm, Cogliano, Lehkonen).
 
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mkatcherin00

Registered User
Apr 2, 2023
10,683
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So who else doesn't want to play in that sh**hole Calgary?

I read Hanifin is going to make a decision soon lol. Pathetic. They are offering you a lot and he can't make a decision lol. Flame look so desperate. Their owner is probably talking to the cap guy asking him how they can send Hanifin and Tanev to the Miragecouver Canucks with a gleeful and sneaky look on his face
 

Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
16,913
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Vancouver

That trade would an unmitigated disaster that would kill this team’s winning window carving out all of its very finite bluechip trade assets.

Forward scoring depth is the easiest, most plentiful position resource available at deadline. It is a secondary need on a league near top scoring team. They need to fortify their young goaltender with top 4RD or hard middle 3/4C.
 

bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
24,616
61,189
So who else doesn't want to play in that sh**hole Calgary?

I read Hanifin is going to make a decision soon lol. Pathetic. They are offering you a lot and he can't make a decision lol. Flame look so desperate. Their owner is probably talking to the cap guy asking him how they can send Hanifin and Tanev to the Miragecouver Canucks with a gleeful and sneaky look on his face
Flames are slow learners. Pretty clear that most American born players want nothing to do with playing in that dump of a market. Fox was smart and didn't even wade into that toxic mess, and Chucky and Hoggy both got the hell out of there as soon as they could. Hanifin is next, has mentioned many times he wants out. Now they double down on Brzustewicz, who will bolt when he is able.

 
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Soundwave

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Mar 1, 2007
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If you think they're invincible why not just say that? It would be much easier and less tedious than what you're doing.

Aside from that, with all due respect to Adin Hill, and he is earning a ton right now, you are very literally looking at a 34 game sample size and talking him into mythical proportions.

This isn't me comparing the two either. But over just the last 18 games, which is all Hill has played so far this year, Skinner has posted a .936/1.66 compared to Hill's .938/1.88

Again, Hill has been a monster over the last 34 games he's played, but there was 85 games prior to that where he wasn't playing at a Vezina caliber. I think you're absolutely overstating things at this point in time. You're also forgetting to mention that Vegas had a slide earlier this year too.

After a torrid 11-2 start in October, they went 6-8 in November, 7-6 in December and 7-6 in January. They are a very good team, but they are not this invincible machine you're trying to make them out to be.

I think if Hill is playing at that level (which is now at a point where it's almost impossible to hand wave away as a fluke) they are not just a "very good" team.

They are a "as good anyone who's won the Cup in the last 15 years and probably better than more than a few of those teams" good.

It's good for us to know that, you need to know where the bar is and who it is you need to beat. If there was any feeling like that have slipped or fallen off, them ending our win streak last night without Eichel and Theodore puts things into perspective.

Skinner played pretty OK last night, but I do think they are specifically targeting throwing pucks at his pads (not even hard shots) and betting on a rebounding popping loose. It feels like they're scoring a goal like that every game or second game against us.

On the plus side, that's about as well of a defensive game I've seen the Oilers play. Whereas in the playoffs their D was head and shoulders better than ours, that gap has narrowed. But still our forwards are having a nightmare time scoring against their D + Hill, that hasn't changed at all. Other than McDavid no one can get anything going.

If it was 1 or 2 games of this OK, but when it's getting up to like 4/5 ... you start to get worried.
 
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Paralyzer

Oilers Win Cup in 2025
Sep 29, 2006
15,985
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We literally have 1 loss this year and fans want to blow it up and demanding trades.

This is why we get a bad rap.
family-guy-animated-sitcom.gif


Hey, let us Peter Griffins let our rage out! We can't help it!
 

guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
34,631
15,190
If you think they're invincible why not just say that? It would be much easier and less tedious than what you're doing.

Aside from that, with all due respect to Adin Hill, and he is earning a ton right now, you are very literally looking at a 34 game sample size and talking him into mythical proportions.

This isn't me comparing the two either. But over just the last 18 games, which is all Hill has played so far this year, Skinner has posted a .936/1.66 compared to Hill's .938/1.88

Again, Hill has been a monster over the last 34 games he's played, but there was 85 games prior to that where he wasn't playing at a Vezina caliber. I think you're absolutely overstating things at this point in time. You're also forgetting to mention that Vegas had a slide earlier this year too.

After a torrid 11-2 start in October, they went 6-8 in November, 7-6 in December and 7-6 in January. They are a very good team, but they are not this invincible machine you're trying to make them out to be.
Not enough credit is being given to Cassidy and the Vegas defenisve system.
That system mades a good goalie look great.
 

Soundwave

Registered User
Mar 1, 2007
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Not enough credit is being given to Cassidy and the Vegas defenisve system.
That system mades a good goalie look great.

True their defensive system is exceptional ... but at the same time why weren't Broissoit and Thompson anywhere near as good (or frankly Lehner too).

Something in Hill's mind seems to have clicked in from the playoffs last year, either that or he should win Best Actor at the Oscars this year for pretending to be the best goalie on earth now for like 8 months.

It's not even a "this guy just does that to Edmonton" thing, he has shut out Vancouver this year, shut out Colorado, and last year completely brought Dallas and Florida's offense to their knees after shutting our offense down.

I'm not sure if that makes it better or worse, but it's not just us.
 

McDoused

Registered User
Feb 5, 2007
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I think the problem right now is that the two trades that "set the market" are actually very different situations.

Calgary traded Lindholm for Kuzmenko, a 1st, two 3rds and a 4th. However, when Calgary traded Lindholm, they didn't retain any salary but needed to take Kuzmenko back. So its kind of a weird one because Kuzmenko was a cap dump but also a piece that has value. Guentzel on the other hand would need to be retained twice (increasing the cost) but wouldn't require a cap dump (decreases the cost). Its just not really the same situation.

Monahan cost Winnipeg a 1st and a conditional pick. Monahan makes less than 2 million so no retention was required. Guentzel is a way better play. However Winnipeg has the extra month of Monahan and he's also a center. I just think that Winnipeg paid the price to get the piece they needed but im not really sure you can compare the two.

I would actually look back to the Bo Horvat trade. At the time Horvat had 31goals and 54 points in 49 games. Guentzel has 50 points in 47 games right now. Vancouver received a 1st round pick, Aatu Raty ( a 2nd round pick) and a cap dump in Anthony Beauvillier. Given that Horvat is a center and was traded early, I don't see Guentzel getting any more then that without retention.

Pittsburgh might ask for another 2nd round to eat half the salary although I think another team would eat 3M at the deadline for cheaper. You could get another team to eat the other 25% for a 4th round pick.

I think a 2024 1st round pick, 2024 2nd round pick and Cody Ceci would be close to the Horvat deal. Maybe you upgrade that 2nd round pick to a guy like Bourgault to offset the retention or add in another 2nd round pick.

We aren't demanding trades. Just discussing areas that need upgrading like you do.

Literally the first response from many posters after the loss was "we have to trade Ceci and Foegele".

Like its one game.
 
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Soundwave

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Mar 1, 2007
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I think the problem right now is that the two trades that "set the market" are actually very different situations.

Calgary traded Lindholm for Kuzmenko, a 1st, two 3rds and a 4th. However, when Calgary traded Lindholm, they didn't retain any salary but needed to take Kuzmenko back. So its kind of a weird one because Kuzmenko was a cap dump but also a piece that has value. Guentzel on the other hand would need to be retained twice (increasing the cost) but wouldn't require a cap dump (decreases the cost). Its just not really the same situation.

Monahan cost Winnipeg a 1st and a conditional pick. Monahan makes less than 2 million so no retention was required. Guentzel is a way better play. However Winnipeg has the extra month of Monahan and he's also a center. I just think that Winnipeg paid the price to get the piece they needed but im not really sure you can compare the two.

I would actually look back to the Bo Horvat trade. At the time Horvat had 31goals and 54 points in 49 games. Guentzel has 50 points in 47 games right now. Vancouver received a 1st round pick, Aatu Raty ( a 2nd round pick) and a cap dump in Anthony Beauvillier. Given that Horvat is a center and was traded early, I don't see Guentzel getting any more then that without retention.

Pittsburgh might as for another 2nd round to eat half the salary although I think another team would eat 3M at the deadline for cheaper. You could get another team to eat the other 25% for a 4th round pick.

I think a 2024 1st round pick, 2024 2nd round pick and Cody Ceci would be close to the Horvat deal. Maybe you upgrade that 2nd round pick to a guy like Bourgault to offset the retention or add in another 2nd round pick.

The other problem is I think Pittsburgh still has a very good chance of making the playoffs.

Philly has been in a tail spin for a while, and Pittsburgh has 4 games in hand. I'd say right now they have better than 50-50 odds of getting in.
 
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Jet Walters

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May 15, 2013
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No thanks. Use the first and whatever else to bag Parayko retained.


No chance they retain, and if they’re somehow convinced to do so it would cost around an extra 1st round pick per million. With even 2 mil retained the cost would be around 3 1sts, Broberg, and a 2nd. Maybe even more. Might as well just pay someone a couple 1sts to take Campbell and get Parayko his full cap hit. I think the Blues would 100% prefer to move Faulk or Krug, and with them in the playoff mix I’m very doubtful the Oilers could get Parayko at the deadline now.
 

stewy04

Registered User
Jun 19, 2016
400
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No no. I got what you meant. You're right that people tend to over-blow about Ceci, and yes, he isn't a Top pairing dman, but he is good to add in a pinch, but he can't be relied on to be up there all the time.
He would be a perfect 3rd pairing with Kulak I think but costs too much.
 

5 14 6 1

We are the 11.5%
Sep 15, 2010
15,034
17,565
Alberta
Make a list of the players who have scored the most against Aidin Hill and target those players.

This strategy is our only hope.

Last night was a very good show of why Canadians should not be worried about goaltending come 4 Nations and Olympics. Both Skinner and Hill are excellent this year. Hill gets thr nod for now. He is leading the league in GAA and SV% after coming off a cup win after all.
 
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