Prospect Info: Round 1, 7th overall: Matvei Michkov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL)

[Chicken N Raffls]

The reason I didn't care about the 3 years timeline was I figured it at least gave them time to un-f*** themselves. And collect more high picks. Basically to protect them from themselves. I really hope that info about him only being able to skip the last year is true.

What else is funny about this is the argument often repeated by the anti-tank crowd that you can't pin all your hopes to drafting a "savior"

 

[Magua]

I want to be like 2023 Buffalo. Whatever* happened there, they finally get it.

*It’s Sam Ventura and whoever hired him.

The Flyers are so into the 90s-00s nostalgia right now, it’s only fitting for Buffalo and Jersey to be the two teams likely standing in their way for a long time. And then like 7 other teams, but let’s not focus on that part!

 

[Rich Nixon]

I'm fine with them doing this in a shorter run than other teams who have floundered forever. They need a serious C and D prospect, but most teams do. If they go about it right and continue to draft twice in the first round for 3 years without gunking up their cap situation with more mediocre crap on long term deals, they should be able to switch into "go" mode by 2026.

I don't think there's a "right" way to run a bottom-out tanking rebuild, and I think a lot of teams spend too long on it and just never fix anything. Buffalo's been a fiasco forever and is only just digging out, and it's not as if they haven't gotten quality prospects in that time--they just didn't do anything once they had them or try to fill needs or anything. I think Detroit's approach is just looking downright ugly at this point. The Devils are the only team I'm looking at that really pulled themselves back up, and they got some luck there--and didn't spend nearly as long in the basement as many others.

There are ways to rebuild correctly in a short time period I think, you just have to have a plan and do nearly everything right. I'm not sure about the plan, given that I think whiny Torts is gonna bitch and cry about trading Scott f***in' Laughton. I think Torts undermines it a lot.

Briere's early returns haven't been awful. I think he knocked the Provorov deal a million miles out of the park. Obviously this Michkov pick was a great one, and it involved a good bit of luck. Their existing prospect pool, as much as people here shit on Flahr, really isn't bad.

I think there's a balance between the speed the Rangers tried to go and the laborious and laughable pace the Red Wings have been on. If they can leave themselves cap flexibility and a add a few blue-chippers to their decent prospect pool, there's no reason that the franchise has to crawl around on the floor drinking its own piss for 6-7 years. They should intend to be maximizing Michkov's ELC years, honestly, which means being efficient in the short term and ready to make some splashes the minute he comes over.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I'm fine with them doing this in a shorter run than other teams who have floundered forever. They need a serious C and D prospect, but most teams do. If they go about it right and continue to draft twice in the first round for 3 years without gunking up their cap situation with more mediocre crap on long term deals, they should be able to switch into "go" mode by 2026.

I don't think there's a "right" way to run a bottom-out tanking rebuild, and I think a lot of teams spend too long on it and just never fix anything. Buffalo's been a fiasco forever and is only just digging out, and it's not as if they haven't gotten quality prospects in that time--they just didn't do anything once they had them or try to fill needs or anything. I think Detroit's approach is just looking downright ugly at this point. The Devils are the only team I'm looking at that really pulled themselves back up, and they got some luck there--and didn't spend nearly as long in the basement as many others.

There are ways to rebuild correctly in a short time period I think, you just have to have a plan and do nearly everything right. I'm not sure about the plan, given that I think whiny Torts is gonna bitch and cry about trading Scott f***in' Laughton. I think Torts undermines it a lot.

Briere's early returns haven't been awful. I think he knocked the Provorov deal a million miles out of the park. Obviously this Michkov pick was a great one, and it involved a good bit of luck. Their existing prospect pool, as much as people here shit on Flahr, really isn't bad.

I think there's a balance between the speed the Rangers tried to go and the laborious and laughable pace the Red Wings have been on. If they can leave themselves cap flexibility and a add a few blue-chippers to their decent prospect pool, there's no reason that the franchise has to crawl around on the floor drinking its own piss for 6-7 years. They should intend to be maximizing Michkov's ELC years, honestly, which means being efficient in the short term and ready to make some splashes the minute he comes over.

Yea I certainly think it's possible to fast track a rebuild, but you have to be super sharp, and probably have some things break your way as well. Have any of the moves this org has made the last few years seemed "sharp"? I really, really want know what plan B was if Michkov wasn't there. I know Briere wouldn't tell even if asked directly, but that answer would be pretty telling.

 

[Redpath]

I'm really not sure it is fair to say that Michkov fell into the Flyers lap here.

The Flyers, more than any other normal traditional draft faller league-wide, clearly gamed Michkov's draft position. He more so was guided into #7 than simply falling into our laps, thanks to management doing their homework and pulling out the bells and whistles.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Yea I certainly think it's possible to fast track a rebuild, but you have to be super sharp, and probably have some things break your way as well. Have any of the moves this org has made the last few years seemed "sharp"? I really, really want know what plan B was if Michkov wasn't there. I know Briere wouldn't tell even if asked directly, but that answer would be pretty telling.

Who knows, but as you say, you do need some luck--and they got it with Michkov (though as @Redpath points out above, they played their part too). And I think the Provorov trade was really, really well-executed, which is a good start. But they gotta keep going.

Now, that doesn't mean everything has to be NOW NOW NOW. Next year's draft is gonna be on the same day whether you trade Laughton and Konecny today or the morning of the draft. But you just gotta be willing to do it, and you need to maximize your returns.

So: There's a lot to give you pause. Torts and his influence, primarily. Their insistence on adding unnecessary Staals and things. But I do think the utter gloom here has people writing scenarios that aren't actually playing out at the moment. As far as actual rebuilding moves from the GM so far, they're not off to a bad start.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I'm really not sure it is fair to say that Michkov fell into the Flyers lap here.

The Flyers, more than any other normal traditional draft faller league-wide, clearly gamed Michkov's draft position. He more so was guided into #7 than simply falling into our laps, thanks to management doing their homework and pulling out the bells and whistles.

Management was amazed how much he wanted to be a Flyer so much that they didn’t believe it so they had to meet with him again with different people to see if he was genuine.

Michkov’s camp is the one that avoided certain teams.

That’s the definition of him falling into their lap.

 

[Redpath]

Management was amazed how much he wanted to be a Flyer so much that they didn’t believe it so they had to meet with him again with different people to see if he was genuine.

Michkov’s camp is the one that avoided certain teams.

That’s the definition of him falling into their lap.

And was Michkov wanting to be a Flyer predestined? Or was that because management met him pre-draft, closed down the Skate Zone, showed him the organization, sold him on ownership, and let Michkov tank his final bit of draft stock past the Sharks/Habs/Coyotes?

 

[Fly0rDie]

Who knows, but as you say, you do need some luck--and they got it with Michkov (though as @Redpath points out above, they played their part too). And I think the Provorov trade was really, really well-executed, which is a good start. But they gotta keep going.

Now, that doesn't mean everything has to be NOW NOW NOW. Next year's draft is gonna be on the same day whether you trade Laughton and Konecny today or the morning of the draft. But you just gotta be willing to do it, and you need to maximize your returns.

So: There's a lot to give you pause. Torts and his influence, primarily. But I do think the utter gloom here has people writing scenarios that aren't actually playing out at the moment.

The thing is though, what purpose does it serve them to hang onto those guys for one more year only? The only thing that accomplishes is weakening their pick in the draft and lessening the odds they’re in a position to draft another star forward to pair with a Michkov or a defenseman with true #1D upside.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Who knows, but as you say, you do need some luck--and they got it with Michkov (though as @Redpath points out above, they played their part too). And I think the Provorov trade was really, really well-executed, which is a good start. But they gotta keep going.

Now, that doesn't mean everything has to be NOW NOW NOW. Next year's draft is gonna be on the same day whether you trade Laughton and Konecny today or the morning of the draft. But you just gotta be willing to do it, and you need to maximize your returns.

So: There's a lot to give you pause. Torts and his influence, primarily. Their insistence on adding unnecessary Staals and things. But I do think the utter gloom here has people writing scenarios that aren't actually playing out at the moment. As far as actual rebuilding moves from the GM so far, they're not off to a bad start.

I agree that so far, the moves made could be taken as rebuild, but they could be viewed through a different perspective, and I certainly don't blame anyone for that. I'm about as optimistic as it gets, and I'm still struggling. I've said it before, it really comes down to TK and Laughton for me. Moving those two would send a good signal that they are serious about this. I don't know that waiting till the deadline (or draft) increases their value that much, but I think it would at least increase our odds of finishing as low as possible. Still a bit discouraged that they didn't take a 1st and 2nd for Scoot. Seems like a haul to me for a utility role player. And I like those kinds of guys. And so we wait.

 

[nacc BLOCC]

I'm fine with them doing this in a shorter run than other teams who have floundered forever. They need a serious C and D prospect, but most teams do. If they go about it right and continue to draft twice in the first round for 3 years without gunking up their cap situation with more mediocre crap on long term deals, they should be able to switch into "go" mode by 2026.

I don't think there's a "right" way to run a bottom-out tanking rebuild, and I think a lot of teams spend too long on it and just never fix anything. Buffalo's been a fiasco forever and is only just digging out, and it's not as if they haven't gotten quality prospects in that time--they just didn't do anything once they had them or try to fill needs or anything. I think Detroit's approach is just looking downright ugly at this point. The Devils are the only team I'm looking at that really pulled themselves back up, and they got some luck there--and didn't spend nearly as long in the basement as many others.

There are ways to rebuild correctly in a short time period I think, you just have to have a plan and do nearly everything right. I'm not sure about the plan, given that I think whiny Torts is gonna bitch and cry about trading Scott f***in' Laughton. I think Torts undermines it a lot.

Briere's early returns haven't been awful. I think he knocked the Provorov deal a million miles out of the park. Obviously this Michkov pick was a great one, and it involved a good bit of luck. Their existing prospect pool, as much as people here shit on Flahr, really isn't bad.

I think there's a balance between the speed the Rangers tried to go and the laborious and laughable pace the Red Wings have been on. If they can leave themselves cap flexibility and a add a few blue-chippers to their decent prospect pool, there's no reason that the franchise has to crawl around on the floor drinking its own piss for 6-7 years. They should intend to be maximizing Michkov's ELC years, honestly, which means being efficient in the short term and ready to make some splashes the minute he comes over.

you’re wasting good urine and precious time if you’re looking for a reason

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Who knows, but as you say, you do need some luck--and they got it with Michkov (though as @Redpath points out above, they played their part too). And I think the Provorov trade was really, really well-executed, which is a good start. But they gotta keep going.

Now, that doesn't mean everything has to be NOW NOW NOW. Next year's draft is gonna be on the same day whether you trade Laughton and Konecny today or the morning of the draft. But you just gotta be willing to do it, and you need to maximize your returns.

So: There's a lot to give you pause. Torts and his influence, primarily. Their insistence on adding unnecessary Staals and things. But I do think the utter gloom here has people writing scenarios that aren't actually playing out at the moment. As far as actual rebuilding moves from the GM so far, they're not off to a bad start.

I agree that some of the approaches go a bit far for my personal tastes, but there’s an important lesson from the Hextall story arc that feels like it hasn’t resonated.

For the first X years, people weren’t wrong that he was doing a good job. I would submit that’s because the tearing down is the easy part of the job. Getting something for assets like Rinaldo and Lecavalier have always been and will always be net positives. They’re also low-hanging fruit for anyone but the worst GMs. Selling Provorov is good. I like that they got back a quantity of high picks. It’s also difficult to convert on them.

So what I need to see are signs that the process is sound. I don’t want to hear another word ever about drafting a position specifically in a spot. That’s clearly and inexcusably wrong. Foerster is the best possible example I can give you. Every time Flahr opens his mouth, it’s about the shot and being a sniper. He’s not a bad playmaker at all. If that’s not recognized and more importantly encouraged, you’re never going to max out the hits that you do get. Think back to some of the JVR vs Simmonds as in-close wingers discussions. Simmonds was for all intents and purposes a non-playmaker. JVR had underrated vision and when he used it, it enabled not just his game, but it created opportunities like controlled zone entries for others that could snowball.

 

[Danko]

Can we talk about the amount of Michigan goal videos/attempts he has out there for public consumption...holy smokes

 

[LegionOfGloom]

I agree that so far, the moves made could be taken as rebuild, but they could be viewed through a different perspective, and I certainly don't blame anyone for that. I'm about as optimistic as it gets, and I'm still struggling. I've said it before, it really comes down to TK and Laughton for me. Moving those two would send a good signal that they are serious about this. I don't know that waiting till the deadline (or draft) increases their value that much, but I think it would at least increase our odds of finishing as low as possible. Still a bit discouraged that they didn't take a 1st and 2nd for Scoot. Seems like a haul to me for a utility role player. And I like those kinds of guys. And so we wait.

To me there are a number of problems with waiting to deal guys like TK, Laughton, and Hart even if its possible their value will be higher at the deadline:

1. As others have mentioned, it hurts our pick in the interim.
2. It ignores the possibility of injuries.
3. These guys might have a worse year and their value decreases. TK's shooting percentage could fluctuate back down. Hart's stats aren't gonna look great behind this defense.

But most troubling to me is that it removes the "home run" possibility. If you wait until the deadline, the contenders are well established and the likely range of their picks is well established. No team is giving a pick in the teens for Laughton and a team with a really bad record isn't going to bother trading their pick for Konecny or Hart.

But now you find the dreamers or the GMs who are on the hot seat. Maybe Calgary believes its a playoff team. Maybe Detroit will think Konecny is the missing piece to jumpstart them into the playoffs. I don't know, maybe they're right. But there's also a decent chance they're wrong and that's how the Eagles ended up with a pick better than the Dolphins thought it would be and a pick definitely better than the Saints envisioned. If someone traded for the Caps 2023 1st at this time last year, I don't think anyone involved would have assumed a top-8 pick was moving.

All of which is to say - get off your ass Danny and move TK, Laughton, and Hart ASAP.

 

[Danko]

To me there are a number of problems with waiting to deal guys like TK, Laughton, and Hart even if its possible their value will be higher at the deadline:

1. As others have mentioned, it hurts our pick in the interim.
2. It ignores the possibility of injuries.
3. These guys might have a worse year and their value decreases. TK's shooting percentage could fluctuate back down. Hart's stats aren't gonna look great behind this defense.

But most troubling to me is that it removes the "home run" possibility. If you wait until the deadline, the contenders are well established and the likely range of their picks is well established. No team is giving a pick in the teens for Laughton and a team with a really bad record isn't going to bother trading their pick for Konecny or Hart.

But now you find the dreamers or the GMs who are on the hot seat. Maybe Calgary believes its a playoff team. Maybe Detroit will think Konecny is the missing piece to jumpstart them into the playoffs. I don't know, maybe they're right. But there's also a decent chance they're wrong and that's how the Eagles ended up with a pick better than the Dolphins thought it would be and a pick definitely better than the Saints envisioned. If someone traded for the Caps 2023 1st at this time last year, I don't think anyone involved would have assumed a top-8 pick was moving.

All of which is to say - get off your ass Danny and move TK, Laughton, and Hart ASAP.

If Laughton actually did have the value that was discussed, it is a huge miss.

 

[Rich Nixon]

The thing is though, what purpose does it serve them to hang onto those guys for one more year only? The only thing that accomplishes is weakening their pick in the draft and lessening the odds they’re in a position to draft another star forward to pair with a Michkov or a defenseman with true #1D upside.

Who knows, but based on what returns have looked like for decent-ish NHL talent this summer, they haven't been great (Provorov is the only one I can think of where the selling team got good value).

I mean, Taylor Hall was f***ing given away. It's not a great trade economy right now, and I think the quality of this draft and the prospect of the first real cap bump in a while coming next summer are just keeping it that way. If there are so few teams in on any given player, you just aren't gonna get real returns. Conditions for moving players right now seem like utter crap.

The weak FA class and the aforementioned economic conditions also meant for teams shopping for secondary pieces and cheap depth, they were able to get it this year without having to offer huge dollars or term. In this case, a weak FA class might've ironically depressed the trade market. Dumba isn't even signed yet, but we sure as hell know he isn't getting 8x$6m+. If you're a GM looking to add a puck-moving second-pairing defensemen, you're assuming much less risk signing Dumba to a 2-year deal than trading prime assets for Sanheim.

So to me, if the offers aren't hitting where you want them and you think you have a better shot of pulling it in at the deadline, you go for that. Again, maximizing value.

That said, the rumored Laughton return that they didn't take from St. Louis might be hard to swallow if they can't pull similar or better at the deadline. Again, I think that's a bit of Torts influence--which I am not a fan of.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

All of which is to say - get off your ass Danny and move TK, Laughton, and Hart ASAP.

If Laughton actually did have the value that was discussed, it is a huge miss.

When I first heard about them turning down offers for Laughton, I assumed (correctly at times) that people were talking about last year with Chuck. But I'm pretty sure it's been credibly reported that Danny turned down a 1st+2nd deal, 1st being 2023. I don't care if the 2nd was 2024. How do you not take that?

 

[Boxscore]

The playbook is there for the Flyers. They need to stink bad for 2 more seasons and forget about grinding out meaningless wins which result in drafting 7th instead of 2nd.

Briere and Jones have one job right now -- be terrible and put kids in situations to see what they are made of. The Flyers don't need perfection, they need to see hustle, heart, and strong character from players who can face the adversity of losing while knowing better times are shortly ahead. If they can't handle losing they shouldn't be part of the long-term plan.

Next year they absolutely need to pick in the Top-4, preferably Top-2 in order to draft a Celebrini or Eiserman. Demidov or Kiviharju are nice consolation prizes. If they can snag Kivi, they have their future number one D and PPQB.

They also need to stink again and draft high in 2025. In 2026 bring in Michkov, Gauthier (2nd year), high 1st rounder in 24 and in 25, then begin their run like the 85 Flyers did with all their young pups.

The worst thing they could do for the next two years is piece together a roster and let Torts torture his players into winning 6-8 more games than they should.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I can think myself into understanding TK staying. In theory he will still be good in 5 years, we hope. But Laughton? Tippett? Seeler? Hart*?

How are we achieving this 3 year turnover without actually turning anything over?

psssst... we arent....

they gunna push to get MM here for next year and call the "rebuild" successfully done..

 

[Boxscore]

they gunna push to get MM here for next year and call the "rebuild" successfully done..

I think they could possibly do that if they win the lottery and draft Celebrini in 2024. Bring him, Michkov, and Gauthier in like they had Recchi, Brind'Amour and Lindros after the big trade, then continue to build around them.

The better way would be to stink for at least 2 more seasons and gobble up high-end picks and prospects before making the run. But Michkov, Celebrini, and Gauthier absolutely change the trajectory of the Flyers -- think Matthews, Marner, and Nylander on the Leafs.

 

[Fly0rDie]

I think they could possibly do that if they win the lottery and draft Celebrini in 2024. Bring him, Michkov, and Gauthier in like they had Recchi, Brind'Amour and Lindros after the big trade, then continue to build around them.

The better way would be to stink for at least 2 more seasons and gobble up high-end picks and prospects before making the run. But Michkov, Celebrini, and Gauthier absolutely change the trajectory of the Flyers -- think Matthews, Marner, and Nylander on the Leafs.

Zero chance they’re sniffing Celebrini if we’re being honest… TK, Laughts and Hart sticking around basically guarantee that. They’ll be lucky if they finish in the 5-7 range again.

Even in the hypothetical scenario they get Celebrini, their defense core would still be an absolute dumpster fire…

This team refuses to completely bottom out and they’ll continue to toil in mediocrity until they do so. I thought Danny would finally be the one to make that happen, but he seems to be all talk and just saying what the fans want to hear. All this talk of a rebuild just to hang onto their most valuable trade chips for “leadership”. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[Boxscore]

Zero chance they’re sniffing Celebrini if we’re being honest… TK, Laughts and Hart sticking around basically guarantee that. They’ll be lucky if they finish in the 5-7 range again.

Which is why all of them should be traded immediately if not sooner. If Laughton is still on this team come December, Briere should be doing prison time.

Laughton is the perfect 3rd line center for a contender about to make a long run. He is detrimental to a rebuilding team -- forget about all this self-righteous, "we need to set an example for the young players, blah, blah, blah" nonsense. All three should be traded and the targets should be 24 and 25 1st rounders and a blue chip D-man from someone's farm system.

If the Flyers can parlay Konecny into a high-end D prospect and a Top-12 pick in 2025, it doesn't matter if the Flyers start to improve in 2025, they still have a high pick.

TK, Hart, and Laughton should be traded 100%. If Couturier can prove he's healthy, he should be next to go with Atkinson. Samheim and Risto should be traded by any means necessary or mysteriously end up in dumpsters by Jetro.

 

[Fly0rDie]

Which is why all of them should be traded immediately if not sooner. If Laughton is still on this team come December, Briere should be doing prison time.

Laughton is the perfect 3rd line center for a contender about to make a long run. He is detrimental to a rebuilding team -- forget about all this self-righteous, "we need to set an example for the young players, blah, blah, blah" nonsense. All three should be traded and the targets should be 24 and 25 1st rounders and a blue chip D-man from someone's farm system.

If the Flyers can parlay Konecny into a high-end D prospect and a Top-12 pick in 2025, it doesn't matter if the Flyers start to improve in 2025, they still have a high pick.

TK, Hart, and Laughton should be traded 100%. If Couturier can prove he's healthy, he should be next to go with Atkinson. Samheim and Risto should be traded by any means necessary or mysteriously end up in dumpsters by Jetro.

That’s the problem… I’m starting to lose faith more and more each day that those three are getting traded anytime soon. Seems like all this “rebuild” talk from Danny is just a bunch of fluff to appease the fan base. Which is a shame because I really thought Danny saw what needed to be done and was finally going to be the one to make it happen.

 

[Boxscore]

That’s the problem… I’m starting to lose faith more and more each day that those three are getting traded anytime soon. Seems like all this “rebuild” talk from Danny is just a bunch of fluff to appease the fan base. Which is a shame because I really thought Danny saw what needed to be done and was finally going to be the one to make it happen.

I wouldn't panic yet. The best times to cash in your chips are before the draft, mid-year when teams get desperate, or at the deadline when GMs are foolish. The problem is, Briere cannot wait until the deadline if the Flyers are scratching and clawing out more wins than they should.

Ideally, all three should be gone before October. But I don't think another team is touching Hart until the Team Canada Report is made public, unless they can get him for pennies on the dollar.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Lots of luck needed but my vision is bad for the next 2-3 years. I’m not a fan of drafting for need most of the time, but I would be zeroing in on centers and defensemen the next couple drafts with high picks. If the Flyers can come away with a 1c and 1d the next couple years, the future is very bright. Easier said than done though. All I know is the Flyers have to shed older talent to drag the bottom. Things could come together nicely 3-5 years out if everything works out