Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[Jim Bob]

I agree its a benefit, I am playing devils advocate here as in, I don't think it would have made any difference in waiting to sign him cost wise especially arguing production as being a reason for an increase, I also don't think it would have really hurt to wait to sign him, maybe save a couple hundred thousand like Doak is saying.

I actually don't mind the early contract but I also don't think Doak is in the wrong here in his thought about the contract, I like your perspective but I absolutely can't get behind the 'production increase' narrative which is why they should sign early when it comes to Samuelsson.

If it was a long term deal before 2022-23 or after conversation, then the offensive production bump isn't a huge factor.

I think it was more about what Chain talked about in that it was a sign that they were identifying their core and they want to commit to them long term. And that includes guys like Samuelsson who aren't just point producers. I think it was a part of the culture that Adams and Granato have been building and it has value.

And the only risk was the "he's only played 60 NHL games..." part. But, like we saw with Thompson, Adams has a good handle on his guys and who are core guys.

I think any sort of risk to giving Samuelsson the deal that he did when he did it is massively overblown.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I know. But, nothing has happened this season to lead to Samuelsson getting anything less than he signed for. So, I do not understand complaints that Adams signed him too early.

I understand and as my post above states, I am of the side thats fine with signing him early but I also don't disagree with what Doak is saying as it makes very little difference except some saving of a couple hundred thousand (maybe). I think Chainshots angle makes more sense into signing him early then that as of the risk of Samuelsson's production increasing.

 

[Jim Bob]

I understand and as my post above states, I am of the side thats fine with signing him early but I also don't disagree with what Doak is saying as it makes very little difference except some saving of a couple hundred thousand (maybe). I think Chainshots angle makes more sense into signing him early then that as of the risk of Samuelsson's production increasing.

That is not how I read Doak's take. I read Doak's take as Adams taking an unneeded risk by signing Samuelsson when he did. I do not see the risk being big, at all. And given how Samuelsson has played this season, that risk did not come true and the contract looks just fine today.

So, arguing over a risk that did not happen seems like a waste of time to me.

 

[Bendium]

We’re shooting ourselves in the foot “allowing“ a young talented center emerge organically this year as our 2nd line center and key forward who plays in all situations? Please make that make sense.

I can't make that make sense because it is not what I said.

I am saying that Granato's offensive push at the expense of defense will generate more points per game for a player, than the same player would have on a defensive minded team. Since point production is a major part of contract pricing, it sets us up to overpay for the production. That will hurt us in the long term.

 

[joshjull]

I can't make that make sense because it is not what I said.

From your post….

”I love Cozens, but we are shooting ourselves in the foot contract wise by playing this run and gun style with him getting 1PP time and second line minutes all year.”


You take this odd position that Cozens organically emerging within this system somehow is a bad thing. As if we should play as a team, and use Cozens specifically, in a way that suppresses his production and thus his potential contract.

I am saying that Granato's offensive push at the expense of defense will generate more points per game for a player, than the same player would have on a defensive minded team. Since point production is a major part of contract pricing, it sets us up to overpay for the production. That will hurt us in the long term.

How is Cozens getting a long term deal on par with a bunch of other young centers going to hurt us long term?

If he got 7 or 8mil per we would have our top two centers locked up long term for a total of only 14-15mil.

 

[Dingo44]

I can't make that make sense because it is not what I said.

I am saying that Granato's offensive push at the expense of defense will generate more points per game for a player, than the same player would have on a defensive minded team. Since point production is a major part of contract pricing, it sets us up to overpay for the production. That will hurt us in the long term.

Um what is your alternative?

 

[BUCKSHOT]

I don't think Tage and Samuelsson are a very good comparable (actually its a terrible comparable) when it comes to buying into a player early, look at Tage's trajectory, he was showing big in college and in the AHL, his first full season with the Blue's had them sell him, his second full season in the NHL and first with the Sabres had us all thinking he was a bust. Then he started showing slowly with 14 points in 38, then 68 points in 78 games played which got Adams to jump and sign him for 7 million.

Samuelsson got his 4 million contract with less than 60 games played and had no season in college or the AHL with more than 5 goals, he hasn't even had a season with over 15 assists.

So like I said, the possibility of Samuelsson having a break-out season with an uptick in offense which would give him a larger contract is so low, arguing it as an IF is just pointless.

Sammy isn't getting paid for his offensive production

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

the next time I read or hear a buffalo media person write or say, "The Sabres are not going to mortgage the future for a rental at the deadline" my face is going to melt off my body as though I just opened - and looked into - the arc of the covenant.

it is a f***ing brain-dead straw-man and they will. not. stop. saying it. every. f***ing. year.

So you watch all the teams giving up their 1st rounders, just to fizzle out in the first round, and you say -- sign me up for that?

Spending assets on rentals when you wouldn't win a single playoff game is the dumbest thing Adams could do.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Um what is your alternative?

To stunt their growth offensively, neuter the team, get them all on good contracts, and then unleash them years down the road?

I don’t think developing our top 6 forwards offensively is a bad thing…and any twist of that is overthinking things

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Um what is your alternative?

The alternative would be to do what most other teams do -- focus more on team defense.

 

[Dirty Dog]

The alternative would be to do what most other teams do -- focus more on team defense.

First, that’s not true. Please show your work, because the general framework is to develop forwards offensively and have the defense come later.

Second, the entire premise is silly. I can think of one forward who focused more on defense than developing his offense. Barzal. And he not only DID NOT sign a cheaper contract, but his offense is arguably stunted now


It’s also unrealistic. I imagine the conversation went like this with Barzal:

“Hey Barzal. We’re going to sign you cheaper and long term because your offensive stats don’t hold up to comparables”

“Uh, no. You all continuously told me not to focus on production, and to focus on defense”

“Hmmm, just sign the contract please. We gotcha! Look at your numbers”

“No”

 

[Bendium]

From your post….

”I love Cozens, but we are shooting ourselves in the foot contract wise by playing this run and gun style with him getting 1PP time and second line minutes all year.”


You take this odd position that Cozens organically emerging within this system somehow is a bad thing. As if we should play as a team, and use Cozens specifically, in a way that suppresses his production and thus his potential contract.

How is Cozens getting a long term deal on par with a bunch of other young centers going to hurt us long term?

If he got 7 or 8mil per we would have our top two centers locked up long term for a total of only 14-15mil.

Again, I am not saying the bolded part at all. You are taking a quote, removing it from the sentences that preceded it, and then twisting it to make some other point you want to make.

I even clarified my point and you are still twisting it. Why not just make a point you want to make WITHOUT twisting my words to do it.

 

[Bendium]

How is Cozens getting a long term deal on par with a bunch of other young centers going to hurt us long term?

If he got 7 or 8mil per we would have our top two centers locked up long term for a total of only 14-15mil.

Again....that's not what I said. You have decided I think something I don't and are for some reason twisting everything I post into it.

My post was not about Dylan Cozens! It was about how Granato's system generates more points for players, and thus increases contract values.

 

[Beerz]

There was some stuff that floated around last year about how his 5-on-5 shot generation was on par with Eichel at the same age. What was missing was PP production and right now, we've seen him bounce up to be third on the team in that regard and was a big reason for them correcting some early season issues by flipping with Mittelstadt on PP1. He's also outpacing his regular linemates at just raw 5-on-5 production by a fairly wide margin since his linemates have struggled on and off for weeks. He's still 34th in the league in ES points at 5-on-5 for centers, ironically tied with Suzuki who while on a worse team gets top line deployment and has had the better winger(s).

I understand the kids have been struggling and that's a valid point. But I am still not sold based on his play individually. We'll see.. plenty of season left before new contract has to be had.

 

[Bendium]

Um what is your alternative?

Go back to my original post. I was responding to:

Oh said:
At some point GMs are going to have to make an adjustment and factor in the game is changing.. Point per game doesn't seem to mean the same thing as it once used to. Contracts are going to have to reflect that being that the cap hasn't been going up and I don't think will go up enough in future.

I agreed and responded"

"I definitely think advanced stats need to come more into play than pure traditional stats. On a team like the Sabres where they are playing a high danger aggressive offensive style, players are going to generate more points than on a team with a more conservative defensive approach. Players need to be paid according to how much they contribute to winning."

I then used Cozens as an example of a player who if you just used points, then his value would be inflated being on a team like the Sabres vs a defensive team. If you use his contribution to winning he might be worth even more! And that is fine if all players were evaluated that way.

 

[Beerz]

Jack Eichel is our only point per game player in the last decade and he only did it twice. Maybe scoring is up this year but it definitely means a ton.

I forgot the number but someone posted the amount of players on track to be ppg and it was ridiculously high. I mean even Hyman is on pace for 97 points. If the trend continues I think it will have to be looked at

 

[Chainshot]

Again....that's not what I said. You have decided I think something I don't and are for some reason twisting everything I post into it.

My post was not about Dylan Cozens! It was about how Granato's system generates more points for players, and thus increases contract values.

Go back to my original post. I was responding to:

Oh said:
At some point GMs are going to have to make an adjustment and factor in the game is changing.. Point per game doesn't seem to mean the same thing as it once used to. Contracts are going to have to reflect that being that the cap hasn't been going up and I don't think will go up enough in future.

I agreed and responded"

"I definitely think advanced stats need to come more into play than pure traditional stats. On a team like the Sabres where they are playing a high danger aggressive offensive style, players are going to generate more points than on a team with a more conservative defensive approach. Players need to be paid according to how much they contribute to winning."

I then used Cozens as an example of a player who if you just used points, then his value would be inflated being on a team like the Sabres vs a defensive team. If you use his contribution to winning he might be worth even more! And that is fine if all players were evaluated that way.

Aer we talking about an adaptation to the recent shift to pay players for current or expected production rather than paying them for past production? Because the shift in paying for current/expected is still not universal as we can see from the reaction to things like some of the other deals to good young centers in the last few years.

I forgot the number but someone posted the amount of players on track to be ppg and it was ridiculously high. I mean even Hyman is on pace for 97 points. If the trend continues I think it will have to be looked at

51 players at the moment are at 1.00 or better. Suzuki, Hischier, Norris, Stutzle as comps - none had a point per game season. Comparing Cozens to his peers, he's in that mix if one looks at how those players are playing in the league with increased scoring and even in bigger minutes (Suzuki in particular in Montreal). It doesn't seem possible to divorce Dylan's play from that of his peers and what they are getting paid.

 

[Beerz]

Aer we talking about an adaptation to the recent shift to pay players for current or expected production rather than paying them for past production? Because the shift in paying for current/expected is still not universal as we can see from the reaction to things like some of the other deals to good young centers in the last few years.



51 players at the moment are at 1.00 or better. Suzuki, Hischier, Norris, Stutzle as comps - none had a point per game season. Comparing Cozens to his peers, he's in that mix if one looks at how those players are playing in the league with increased scoring and even in bigger minutes (Suzuki in particular in Montreal). It doesn't seem possible to divorce Dylan's play from that of his peers and what they are getting paid.

I don't disagree. I just don't like it lol

 

[Chainshot]

I don't disagree. I just don't like it lol

That also made me laugh enough to disturb the dog.

Point taken.

 

[Jim Bob]

Um what is your alternative?

He wants the Sabres to be the 90s NJ Devils and try and play a boring trap style.

 

[Bendium]

He wants the Sabres to be the 90s NJ Devils and try and play a boring trap style.

I guess I can give up on having a healthy discourse, since I never said that either. Why don't you try putting forward what you think instead of incorrectly stating what I think.

 

[Chainshot]

He wants the Sabres to be the 90s NJ Devils and try and play a boring trap style.

Yeah, I don't think that's fair. We could try to debate if the style of play for the team is going to push Cozens' contract value into or out of the range for other centers of his age. I don't think that's easy to parse out so the broad strokes are how productive is he in the role and what are similar players getting at his age. And that's in $7.5Mish range.

 

[slip]

How is Cozens getting a long term deal on par with a bunch of other young centers going to hurt us long term?

If he got 7 or 8mil per we would have our top two centers locked up long term for a total of only 14-15mil.

For contrast, starting next season Eichel and Reinhart signed for a combined 4 more season at 16.5 million, average age 27, vs Thompson and Cozens signed for 14 seasons at 14.5 million, average age 24.

Sensational.

 

[Dingo44]

The alternative would be to do what most other teams do -- focus more on team defense.

That's fun hockey. Let's play like the Islanders and hope to grind out another 2-1 win maybe.

 

[Chainshot]

That's fun hockey. Let's play like the Islanders and hope to grind out another 2-1 win maybe.

I would question that as the Sabres have three players more if not five more who can finish plays from distance than the Islanders do. The Islanders are partially limited to playing that style because even with Barzal, they don't have the shooters.