Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[kirby11]

Maybe bridge is best route. I'm still not sold on Cozens being a 5v5 producer.

He's collected a decent number of assists with the man advantage, but only 3 of his goals are on the PP. He's been almost single-handedly carrying the kid line lately (as a 21 year old, no less), is a pain in the ass puck hound, and is generally pretty solid in his own end, with some hiccups here and there. Bridging him to then have to pay even more for his prime years seems like a mistake.

 

[Dingo44]

There was some stuff that floated around last year about how his 5-on-5 shot generation was on par with Eichel at the same age. What was missing was PP production and right now, we've seen him bounce up to be third on the team in that regard and was a big reason for them correcting some early season issues by flipping with Mittelstadt on PP1. He's also outpacing his regular linemates at just raw 5-on-5 production by a fairly wide margin since his linemates have struggled on and off for weeks. He's still 34th in the league in ES points at 5-on-5 for centers, ironically tied with Suzuki who while on a worse team gets top line deployment and has had the better winger(s).

Yeah, I'm not sure what anyone would be worried about with Cozens. He's not historically streaky. His production has been on an upward trajectory that has accelerated this year. His zone entries have always been elite. He produced in juniors and on the international stage in both World Juniors and the World Championships. He's carrying two of our youngest players while they are struggling and still producing. He's shown up in some critical moments and he's shown a willingness to stand up for his teammates like during the outdoor game against the Leafs. He stays close in Ontario in the offseason instead of going back to the Yukon so he can work out and improve with other NHL'ers. He took it upon himself to visit Development Camp and meet with potential future Sabres. He also attended Amerks games after the Sabres were over. He's over a point of game and he's only 21. He's beloved in the locker room and he continues to improve game by game. He plays center which is a premium position. Did I mention he's had success against other's teams top centers like Crosby when Granato intentionally has deployed him in such a matter?

What are we missing on Cozens?

 

[Chainshot]

My issue with the Samuelsson extension had absolutely nothing to do with the player. It simply was a completely unneeded early commitment.

What is, realistically, Samuelsson's upside? Jonas Brodin? That's the player you HOPE he becomes.

In 2014, Brodin signed a six year, 25M deal off of his ELC. The cap was at 69M at the time. So it's 15% higher now. So it'd be a 6 year, 29M deal adjusted for todays cap.

We gave him a 7 year, 30M deal.

So, the saves we received by giving out a 7 year deal to the player before they eclipsed 60 games played in the NHL saved us...500k a year? What would he potentially do in the next year that would have him earn a higher deal than Brodin got? It's just stupid. Let Samuelsson come out and earn that deal over a full season instead of just having faith that he will.

This isn't a situation where cap space is going to be a precious commodity next season, or we're capped out and need to save a dollar and keep the player so you'd rather risk term that cash. It's just more risk than reward with no external pressures to make it worth the risk.

Sammy's deal was 5.19% of cap when signed. Brodin's was 6.04% of cap when signed. That's 700K savings. And yes, Samuelsson is very much a Brodin player now. Even with him having a couple of games where his positioning and execution are fatigued, he's very much worth the investment. He's been that guy since he joined the team and it's likely he improves on that since he's just 22. Defensively, I doubt we've seen peak Samuelsson yet. He's still going to get better with more experience.

And if that were to happen on a bridge, he's getting a larger payday around the time savings are going to be needed.

 

[Jim Bob]

Sammy's deal was 5.19% of cap when signed. Brodin's was 6.04% of cap when signed. That's 700K savings. And yes, Samuelsson is very much a Brodin player now. Even with him having a couple of games where his positioning and execution are fatigued, he's very much worth the investment. He's been that guy since he joined the team and it's likely he improves on that since he's just 22. Defensively, I doubt we've seen peak Samuelsson yet. He's still going to get better with more experience.

And if that were to happen on a bridge, he's getting a larger payday around the time savings are going to be needed.

And if Samuelsson's offensive production takes a jump with maturity, the price post-bridge would go way up.

 

[TehDoak]

Sammy's deal was 5.19% of cap when signed. Brodin's was 6.04% of cap when signed. That's 700K savings. And yes, Samuelsson is very much a Brodin player now. Even with him having a couple of games where his positioning and execution are fatigued, he's very much worth the investment. He's been that guy since he joined the team and it's likely he improves on that since he's just 22. Defensively, I doubt we've seen peak Samuelsson yet. He's still going to get better with more experience.

And if that were to happen on a bridge, he's getting a larger payday around the time savings are going to be needed.

And if Samuelsson's offensive production takes a jump with maturity, the price post-bridge would go way up.

That isn't what I'm saying.

What I'm saying is there was zero risk in waiting until the END of the season to sign the deal he got.

Signing it before he had an entire season under his belt is where the risk was. He wasn't going to balloon his value so much in one season he'd grow beyond an adjusted version of the Brodin deal.

 

[Jim Bob]

NHL trade deadline: The top 10 teams with players and/or cap space to make deals happen

These 10 teams have emerged as key players leading up to the March 3 deadline.

theathletic.com

Buffalo Sabres​

Sabres GM Kevyn Adams has made it clear that he doesn’t want to hit fast forward on the long-term plan for the organization. He doesn’t want to make any rash deadline deals that could jeopardize what they’ve been building in Buffalo.

We probably shouldn’t expect Buffalo to be in the market for a high-priced rental player. But adding some depth — particularly on defense — couldn’t hurt, depending on the price.

Chychrun could be a short- and long-term solution, given he’s under contract for two more seasons. The cost — reportedly an A-level prospect and a first-round pick — might be too steep for Adams for only two years of team control.

Even if they aren’t active as buyers, the Sabres are intriguing because of their $41.71 million in cap space — the most in the NHL. If they decide to weaponize that cap space, the Sabres could be one of the few power brokers at the deadline, acquiring future assets while allowing other teams to make big swings.

That isn't what I'm saying.

What I'm saying is there was zero risk in waiting until the END of the season to sign the deal he got.

Signing it before he had an entire season under his belt is where the risk was. He wasn't going to balloon his value so much in one season he'd grow beyond an adjusted version of the Brodin deal.

Would waiting until the end of this season lead to the deal being better for the team?

I do not think so. As such, signing Samuelsson to the deal that he did and at the time that he did was a good move.

 

[Sabre the Win]

And if Samuelsson's offensive production takes a jump with maturity, the price post-bridge would go way up.

Yeah I don't think anyone was really worried about that except maybe the guy who signed the contract. I don't mind the contract, I just don't think this is a very big factor when it came to signing him now.

I get what Doak is saying and I agree with some variables those in favor of the contract signed early but I think we are getting real close to the ledge with this one.

I hate to argue with IF's that have a very very low probability.

 

[debaser66]

I did crunch the numbers, and went high on most contracts.

The Cozens contract is a no-brainer to me. Lock him up now before we have to pay even more. That's why Dahlin is going to make a boatload. Krueger's misuse led to a bridge contract, and now Adams will pay more.

I prefer to avoid that where the Sabres can.

I don't think you could have saved much money with Dahlin, he would have gotten more earlier, the only thing is 2 more UFA years to pay; he gets his 10-11 anyways.
the only thing which would have made it sig. cheaper is if he would have signed after the Krueger years longterm but he and his agent sayed no.

 

[Bendium]

At some point GMs are going to have to make an adjustment and factor in the game is changing.. Point per game doesn't seem to mean the same thing as it once used to. Contracts are going to have to reflect that being that the cap hasn't been going up and I don't think will go up enough in future.

I definitely think advanced stats need to come more into play than pure traditional stats. On a team like the Sabres where they are playing a high danger aggressive offensive style, players are going to generate more points than on a team with a more conservative defensive approach. Players need to be paid according to how much they contribute to winning. I love Cozens, but we are shooting ourselves in the foot contract wise by playing this run and gun style with him getting 1PP time and second line minutes all year.

 

[Dirty Dog]

That isn't what I'm saying.

What I'm saying is there was zero risk in waiting until the END of the season to sign the deal he got.

Signing it before he had an entire season under his belt is where the risk was. He wasn't going to balloon his value so much in one season he'd grow beyond an adjusted version of the Brodin deal.

Why couldn’t he increase his value a bunch this season? You literally had this opinion with both Tage and samuelsson:

sigh. Very little risk in letting him play out the season. Worse case he gets 8M a year instead of 7. Seems this is mostly risk little reward.

That was about Tage. You quietly stopped saying this opinion about Tage and have narrowed it down to just samuelsson, but that’s not how it works. Adams signed both players early to try and get them on good deals and get in before their value goes up a lot. He definitely achieved that with Tage (you were wrong), and with samuelsson he may have given out the deal samuelsson would have gotten in three months.

His strategy on these contracts worked. And you now looking at samuelsson’s contract in isolation isn’t how it works. Adams saved us millions by offering these types of contracts. Samuelsson may or may not have saved us anything, but Tage’s did so Adams overall strategy 100% worked.

Side note: this was not an easy, cheap, or risk-free strategy. It took some balls for sure

 

[Jim Bob]

Yeah I don't think anyone was really worried about that except maybe the guy who signed the contract. I don't mind the contract, I just don't think this is a very big factor when it came to signing him now.

I get what Doak is saying and I agree with some variables those in favor of the contract signed early but I think we are getting real close to the ledge with this one.

I hate to argue with IF's that have a very very low probability.

Doak is arguing that Adams should have waited until this summer to sign a similar contract. I do not see that having a high probably of getting the Sabres a cheaper deal.

And if they were to go the bridge route this summer, there is the team risk that Samuelsson's offensive production grows over the next couple of years if he continues to play next to Dahlin at ES.

I just think that any risk to signing Samuelsson to the contract extension he got when he got it is largely overblown. The only risk I see is how much time does Samuelsson miss due to playing physical and blocking shots?

 

[joshjull]

I definitely think advanced stats need to come more into play than pure traditional stats. On a team like the Sabres where they are playing a high danger aggressive offensive style, players are going to generate more points than on a team with a more conservative defensive approach. Players need to be paid according to how much they contribute to winning. I love Cozens, but we are shooting ourselves in the foot contract wise by playing this run and gun style with him getting 1PP time and second line minutes all year.

We’re shooting ourselves in the foot “allowing“ a young talented center emerge organically this year as our 2nd line center and key forward who plays in all situations? Please make that make sense.

 

[Chainshot]

NHL trade deadline: The top 10 teams with players and/or cap space to make deals happen

These 10 teams have emerged as key players leading up to the March 3 deadline.

theathletic.com

Would waiting until the end of this season lead to the deal being better for the team?

I do not think so. As such, signing Samuelsson to the deal that he did and at the time that he did was a good move.

It and Thompson's deals also give weight to their team building ideas around committing to the players who want to be in Buffalo long-term. It also shows Dahlin that his partner, his security blanket, is going to be around for a long time.

It's 73rd in payroll for defensemen under contract for when it starts. That's before his contemporaries start getting their 2nd contracts. This is Slavin/Pesce quality good in terms of raw AAV and Pesce good in terms of % of cap.

 

[Chainshot]

I definitely think advanced stats need to come more into play than pure traditional stats. On a team like the Sabres where they are playing a high danger aggressive offensive style, players are going to generate more points than on a team with a more conservative defensive approach. Players need to be paid according to how much they contribute to winning. I love Cozens, but we are shooting ourselves in the foot contract wise by playing this run and gun style with him getting 1PP time and second line minutes all year.

When they were still fumbling through the start of last year, Cozens fancy stats were in line with Eichel's ES/5-on-5 for shot generation, entries under control, etc... I'm not sure them finding that he can play this way while still having nights where he outmatches established talent even while having to nursemaid the rookies on his wings is going to put a drag on his value in negotiations. Hell, if I were his agent, I'd be pushing for more.

 

[Dingo44]

At some point GMs are going to have to make an adjustment and factor in the game is changing.. Point per game doesn't seem to mean the same thing as it once used to. Contracts are going to have to reflect that being that the cap hasn't been going up and I don't think will go up enough in future.

Jack Eichel is our only point per game player in the last decade and he only did it twice. Maybe scoring is up this year but it definitely means a ton.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Doak is arguing that Adams should have waited until this summer to sign a similar contract. I do not see that having a high probably of getting the Sabres a cheaper deal.

And if they were to go the bridge route this summer, there is the team risk that Samuelsson's offensive production grows over the next couple of years if he continues to play next to Dahlin at ES.

I just think that any risk to signing Samuelsson to the contract extension he got when he got it is largely overblown. The only risk I see is how much time does Samuelsson miss due to playing physical and blocking shots?

Yea, looking at it objectively I don’t think samuelsson would have gotten more this off-season. So the decision didn’t cost us or really save us by jumping the gun.

He could still outperform this contract moving forward though

 

[Sabre the Win]

Doak is arguing that Adams should have waited until this summer to sign a similar contract. I do not see that having a high probably of getting the Sabres a cheaper deal.

And if they were to go the bridge route this summer, there is the team risk that Samuelsson's offensive production grows over the next couple of years if he continues to play next to Dahlin at ES.

I just think that any risk to signing Samuelsson to the contract extension he got when he got it is largely overblown. The only risk I see is how much time does Samuelsson miss due to playing physical and blocking shots?

Even if they signed him at the end of this year and his offensive production grew after the next couple of years, it still wouldn't change anything unless his production grew this year and that was a very very low probability going into this season and even going into the next couple of years. Maybe higher secondary assist production? Does that give you a massive raise?

 

[Dirty Dog]

Even if they signed him at the end of this year and his offensive production grew after the next couple of years, it still wouldn't change anything unless his production grew this year and that was a very very low probability going into this season and even going into the next couple of years. Maybe higher secondary assist production? Does that give you a massive raise?

Maybe if there isn’t really any downside, and the upside is low percentage….it’s still worth it?

Exhibit A: Tage

 

[Chainshot]

Yea, looking at it objectively I don’t think samuelsson would have gotten more this off-season. So the decision didn’t cost us or really save us by jumping the gun.

He could still outperform this contract moving forward though

Even if they signed him at the end of this year and his offensive production grew after the next couple of years, it still wouldn't change anything unless his production grew this year and that was a very very low probability going into this season and even going into the next couple of years. Maybe higher secondary assist production? Does that give you a massive raise?

So if the value of the deal is the same, what was gained by signing the extension when they did? From where I sit - it plants another firm part of the foundation they want to keep together as not moving prior to ever going to the table to extend Dahlin or Cozens. The team gets cost certainty. The players see them being proactive instead of nickel and diming until the last minute. They took care of one of the players' important teammates, it puts more weight toward what they are trying to assemble from the standpoint of influence on the Dahlin and Cozens signings. That's a benefit.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

My issue with the Samuelsson extension had absolutely nothing to do with the player. It simply was a completely unneeded early commitment.

What is, realistically, Samuelsson's upside? Jonas Brodin? That's the player you HOPE he becomes.

In 2014, Brodin signed a six year, 25M deal off of his ELC. The cap was at 69M at the time. So it's 15% higher now. So it'd be a 6 year, 29M deal adjusted for todays cap.

We gave him a 7 year, 30M deal.

So, the saves we received by giving out a 7 year deal to the player before they eclipsed 60 games played in the NHL saved us...500k a year? What would he potentially do in the next year that would have him earn a higher deal than Brodin got? It's just stupid. Let Samuelsson come out and earn that deal over a full season instead of just having faith that he will.

This isn't a situation where cap space is going to be a precious commodity next season, or we're capped out and need to save a dollar and keep the player so you'd rather risk term that cash. It's just more risk than reward with no external pressures to make it worth the risk.

In 2014 there had been zero or almost negative inflation for the previous 5 years. In 2022 there had been 10% inflation the previous year as the cap held steady. All of these deals are pricing in interest rate risks which didn't exist 10 years ago.

 

[Dirty Dog]

So if the value of the deal is the same, what was gained by signing the extension when they did? From where I sit - it plants another firm part of the foundation they want to keep together as not moving prior to ever going to the table to extend Dahlin or Cozens. The team gets cost certainty. The players see them being proactive instead of nickel and diming until the last minute. They took care of one of the players' important teammates, it puts more weight toward what they are trying to assemble from the standpoint of influence on the Dahlin and Cozens signings. That's a benefit.

Absolutely. It brings stability and shows faith in homegrown players. It also brings certainty to cap figures for our front office

 

[joshjull]

There are complaints about Sammy’s deal? Some of you just love to be angry at all times with this team.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Maybe if there isn’t really any downside, and the upside is low percentage….it’s still worth it?

Exhibit A: Tage

I don't think Tage and Samuelsson are a very good comparable (actually its a terrible comparable) when it comes to buying into a player early, look at Tage's trajectory, he was showing big in college and in the AHL, his first full season with the Blue's had them sell him, his second full season in the NHL and first with the Sabres had us all thinking he was a bust. Then he started showing slowly with 14 points in 38, then 68 points in 78 games played which got Adams to jump and sign him for 7 million.

Samuelsson got his 4 million contract with less than 60 games played and had no season in college or the AHL with more than 5 goals, he hasn't even had a season with over 15 assists.

So like I said, the possibility of Samuelsson having a break-out season with an uptick in offense which would give him a larger contract is so low, arguing it as an IF is just pointless.

 

[Jim Bob]

Even if they signed him at the end of this year and his offensive production grew after the next couple of years, it still wouldn't change anything unless his production grew this year and that was a very very low probability going into this season and even going into the next couple of years. Maybe higher secondary assist production? Does that give you a massive raise?

I know. But, nothing has happened this season to lead to Samuelsson getting anything less than he signed for. So, I do not understand complaints that Adams signed him too early.

 

[Sabre the Win]

So if the value of the deal is the same, what was gained by signing the extension when they did? From where I sit - it plants another firm part of the foundation they want to keep together as not moving prior to ever going to the table to extend Dahlin or Cozens. The team gets cost certainty. The players see them being proactive instead of nickel and diming until the last minute. They took care of one of the players' important teammates, it puts more weight toward what they are trying to assemble from the standpoint of influence on the Dahlin and Cozens signings. That's a benefit.

I agree its a benefit, I am playing devils advocate here as in, I don't think it would have made any difference in waiting to sign him cost wise especially arguing production as being a reason for an increase, I also don't think it would have really hurt to wait to sign him, maybe save a couple hundred thousand like Doak is saying.

I actually don't mind the early contract but I also don't think Doak is in the wrong here in his thought about the contract, I like your perspective but I absolutely can't get behind the 'production increase' narrative which is why they should sign early when it comes to Samuelsson.