Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[Doug Prishpreed]

You are seeing the forest as a bunch of trees.

The contract amounts were secondary to the main idea of the post. That’s why I included this line:

“Argue with what I did above, but what was interesting was the cap available for the future and what the Sabres need to do.”

Even if the contract estimates are off, the idea is the same. Adams has a lot of big contracts coming up. It may not be the best idea to go trading for a big name.

I find it hard to appreciate our cap situation unless you crunch the numbers yourself. I have a spreadsheet I've been maintaining that just shows the current year and following three years -- those Cozens and Dahlin contracts really put us right into the danger zone immediately.

We can splurge one $6 - $8M contract over the next 5 years or so, going by my calculations; and even that's assuming everyone on the 4th line and bottom pairing is making league-minimum.

 

[Chainshot]

We have Savoie to replace Quinn, not sure why San Jose wouldn't be happy with Savoie though and maybe a sweetener of some sort. 2nd rounder maybe

Probably because Quinn has already shown he can be a dominant player at the AHL level after having an excellent D+1 year as a finisher in the OHL too. In terms of confidence of where a player is in the development cycle, Buffalo probably wants to keep Quinn and Savoie both with an eye to who is Skinner's eventual replacement in say three years.

 

[Zman5778]

Meier is not about replacing VO as much as he would be about giving Cozens someone reliable to create an actual 2nd line behind Thompson. A couple of the reporting folks have hinted around at Buffalo looking like a fit there. It would be interesting to explore, though the risks are his QO that could then take him up to UFA. They would have to know they can get something long-term done and that brings in another expensive winger.

Then there is the cost of acquisition. I would imagine Buffalo would look at non-roster assets and SJ would want one of Quinn or Peterka.

If Meier would re-sign long term in the ~8M range, I think I can stomach the cost of acquisition for him.

Meier/Cozens/Peterka is one HELL of a 2-way 2nd line.

Meier is one guy that makes me debate our unprotected 2023 1st, if we can get him signed long-term reasonably.

 

[DustyZ]

Probably because Quinn has already shown he can be a dominant player at the AHL level after having an excellent D+1 year as a finisher in the OHL too. In terms of confidence of where a player is in the development cycle, Buffalo probably wants to keep Quinn and Savoie both with an eye to who is Skinner's eventual replacement in say three years.

I added to my post. I think we may have more guys in the system who could replace Peterka, so maybe he's the one. Wouldn't sweeten him though. Too good in my eyes.

Would only sweeten non roster asset honestly.

I know KA values my opinion!!

 

[TehDoak]

I don't think you spend assets on a scoring forward at this point. Secondary scoring IS a problem, but its one that you can see a path forward internally. If anything, given that we've used 4 1st round picks and 3 2nd round picks on forwards in the last 2 drafts, I'm probably being pretty cautious about any long term deals at forwards. We have Skinner locked up for 4 more years, Tuch for 3 more, and Thompson for 7 more.

I'm still looking for that 2 way center that can help on faceoffs and matchups. And I'm looking for a physical winger than can play in the middle six and contribute in the 15-20 goal range.

I'm don't think we are going to do a rental and I don't see anyone in the market that would be a good long term fit.

As for long term:

I think you can safely move on from Olofsson and Mittelstadt at this point. Extending either beyond next year is a mistake. Oloffson's a good goal scorer, but at 27, he's going to be on the wrong side of the aging curve. Mittelstadt's ceiling is a 20 goal 40-50 point secondary scorer. I wonder what the market is on Olofsson at 50% retained? I also don't think you qualify Jost. He's fine but he's easily upgradable and likely doesn't carry any trade value at the QO number.

That leaves your middle six as Peterka, Cozens, Quinn, Krebs going into the summer and your bottom line completely to be filled in.

As far as defense goes, middle pair veteran RHD is still a piece that needs to get filled in. And goalie is still a cluster that needs to get fixed.

 

[Chainshot]

Meier love...





I'm amused.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I find it hard to appreciate our cap situation unless you crunch the numbers yourself. I have a spreadsheet I've been maintaining that just shows the current year and following three years -- those Cozens and Dahlin contracts really put us right into the danger zone immediately.

We can splurge one $6 - $8M contract over the next 5 years or so, going by my calculations; and even that's assuming everyone on the 4th line and bottom pairing is making league-minimum.

I did crunch the numbers, and went high on most contracts.

The Cozens contract is a no-brainer to me. Lock him up now before we have to pay even more. That's why Dahlin is going to make a boatload. Krueger's misuse led to a bridge contract, and now Adams will pay more.

I prefer to avoid that where the Sabres can.

 

[DustyZ]

Meier love...





I'm amused.

Yet it gives people the feeling that the Sabres organization at least has a pulse. And so does any talk about it over here as well.

Would be nice if something like this would actually turn to reality every now and then.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Chainshot]

Yet it gives people the feeling that the Sabres organization at least has a pulse. And so does any talk about it over here as well.

Would be nice if something like this would actually turn to reality every now and then.

National folks do drop things in every now and then about the Sabres. It's not like the rabidity of say the Leafs but that is both a factor of market size and the standings. If Buffalo were closer to the top of their division, or even just firmly in a wildcard spot, we'd probably get a lot more speculation on what actions they might be looking to take. As it is, Adams runs a ship as tight or nearly as tight as late-stage Regier. That's not a bad thing.

 

[Duddy]

Hopefully, he is at least looking at players that can help now and in the future. Because no matter what defense need improvments at least.

 

[Djp]

I did crunch the numbers, and went high on most contracts.

The Cozens contract is a no-brainer to me. Lock him up now before we have to pay even more. That's why Dahlin is going to make a boatload. Krueger's misuse led to a bridge contract, and now Adams will pay more.

I prefer to avoid that where the Sabres can.

id rather do a ELC+2yr bridge+ pay high for 7-8 yrs and take them to 32-32 rather than taking them to 28-29 then you have to sign them till they are 35+ and being dead weight the last 3+ years.

 

[Bendium]

I did crunch the numbers, and went high on most contracts.

The Cozens contract is a no-brainer to me. Lock him up now before we have to pay even more. That's why Dahlin is going to make a boatload. Krueger's misuse led to a bridge contract, and now Adams will pay more.

I prefer to avoid that where the Sabres can.

I understand. However, bridges still bring alot of value. I still would have done it with Dahlin. At the time his ELC expired we still did not know what he was going to be. The bridge means we will pay more on the big contract, but we also have more certainty that it will be good money spent and not a boat anchor for 8 years. It also means you will lock him up until he is 31 instead of 29.

I am on the fence with Cozens (my favorite player, tied with Tuch). If he wants more than Tage on a full term then I say no. Do a 2 year bridge. Get the certainty, and like Dahlin, have him out to 31 years old.

id rather do a ELC+2yr bridge+ pay high for 7-8 yrs and take them to 32-32 rather than taking them to 28-29 then you have to sign them till they are 35+ and being dead weight the last 3+ years.

LOL. I was typing the same thing at the same time apparently. Totally agree.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I did crunch the numbers, and went high on most contracts.

The Cozens contract is a no-brainer to me. Lock him up now before we have to pay even more. That's why Dahlin is going to make a boatload. Krueger's misuse led to a bridge contract, and now Adams will pay more.

I prefer to avoid that where the Sabres can.

I'm talking about bringing in someone new. We can afford to pay the likes of UPL, Dahlin, Cozens, and others the high salaries they've earned. But my point was, we can make one big Meir-like splash, and I don't see Adams blowing his one big acquisition this early in the rebuild.

But next year I really feel we need to make our Danault-type of move to bring in a big contract/name to help bring the team to the next level.

 

[Weltschmerz]

If Meier would re-sign long term in the ~8M range, I think I can stomach the cost of acquisition for him.

Meier/Cozens/Peterka is one HELL of a 2-way 2nd line.

Meier is one guy that makes me debate our unprotected 2023 1st, if we can get him signed long-term reasonably.

The problem is what if he wants 9 or 10?

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

I'm very curious how much he thinks players are going to get. Sure some guys might price themselves off the roster, but some of them also likely won't earn massive pay increases either.

Right now kids like Krebs, Quinn, and Peterka likely get shorter term 2nd contracts. Power could get a bridge similar to Dahlin. VO may price himself off the roster at the end of his deal, and be backfilled with an ELC. UPL could get something similar to Vanecek/Georgiev. That doesn't even take into account the projected cap increases once the escrow is paid off which should only mean 1 more season of a flat cap.

There's a ton of flexibility over the next 2 - 3 seasons, and personally I think worrying about the cap structure in 4 - 6 years is a fools errand given you want to project every top prospect hits their ceiling which we know they won't.

 

[Chainshot]

The problem is what if he wants 9 or 10?

From reading about him, it does sound like Grier is trying to maximize his return by allowing teams to speak to Meier's agent about extensions and contract stuff. That's where it gets sticky since Buffalo doesn't have any of Meier's cronies or any ties to him really at all so it would likely be a matter of money when the team is trying to gain some economy with other long term deals. That puts more weight to the risk side of the scale and makes it less likely that Buffalo would push on someone like him IMO.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

The problem is what if he wants 9 or 10?

I think QO is 9M .But I'm not hundred percent.

 

[Weltschmerz]

I think QO is 9M .But I'm not hundred percent.

QO is 10, but in theory you cen get that down with arbitration I think, 20%?

Kotkaniemi signed for 4.8 after making 6.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

There's a ton of flexibility over the next 2 - 3 seasons, and personally I think worrying about the cap structure in 4 - 6 years is a fools errand given you want to project every top prospect hits their ceiling which we know they won't.

There actually isn't much flexibility at all once you give Dahlin his $10M, Cozens his $7.5, and UPL his $5M. You aren't doing the math and think there's more room than there actually is.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm very curious how much he thinks players are going to get. Sure some guys might price themselves off the roster, but some of them also likely won't earn massive pay increases either.

Right now kids like Krebs, Quinn, and Peterka likely get shorter term 2nd contracts. Power could get a bridge similar to Dahlin. VO may price himself off the roster at the end of his deal, and be backfilled with an ELC. UPL could get something similar to Vanecek/Georgiev. That doesn't even take into account the projected cap increases once the escrow is paid off which should only mean 1 more season of a flat cap.

There's a ton of flexibility over the next 2 - 3 seasons, and personally I think worrying about the cap structure in 4 - 6 years is a fools errand given you want to project every top prospect hits their ceiling which we know they won't.

I doubt Adams wants anything to do with a bridge deal for Power given the deals he got done with Thompson and Samuelsson and wanted to get done with Cozens.

Adams seems to know who the core guys are that he wants to lock up for the long term. And he knows that they won't be cheap.

Also, I don't want anything to do with Skinner/Okposo type contracts where you are paying top dollar for UFA age guys. Especially not those types if you don't know how they will fit in the room like say Meier who would likely want an agreement on a monster extension prior to a trade happening.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

There actually isn't much flexibility at all once you give Dahlin his $10M, Cozens his $7.5, and UPL his $5M. You aren't doing the math and think there's more room than there actually is.

How has UPL earned 5 per? You can absolutely give Cozens 7.5, Dahlin 10 or 11, and still have ample space when you have Quinn and Peterka on ELC's until 25-26. Krebs isn't getting a massive increase, Power can be bridged at 6 or 7 per like Dahlin, a back-up is a low hit or Levi on his ELC. Joker hasn't earned much of an increase, VO can be replaced with Savoie, Kulich, Ostlund, Rosen etc down the road. Gus and Okposo are likely gone in 2 - 3 seasons and aren't getting much anyway, Mittelstadt, Asplund, Jost, Bryson, Boosh etc are all replaceable and none other than maybe Mitts has earned an increase.

Honestly the worst case scenario would be in 25-26 you buy out the remaining 2 years of Skinners deal, but the projected cap by then is 92+.

 

[Gabrielor]

no interest in Meier on contract reasons

 

[Beerz]

From reading about him, it does sound like Grier is trying to maximize his return by allowing teams to speak to Meier's agent about extensions and contract stuff. That's where it gets sticky since Buffalo doesn't have any of Meier's cronies or any ties to him really at all so it would likely be a matter of money when the team is trying to gain some economy with other long term deals. That puts more weight to the risk side of the scale and makes it less likely that Buffalo would push on someone like him IMO.

A big negative is that Claude Lemieux is Meiers agent =/

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

How has UPL earned 5 per? You can absolutely give Cozens 7.5, Dahlin 10 or 11, and still have ample space when you have Quinn and Peterka on ELC's until 25-26. Krebs isn't getting a massive increase, Power can be bridged at 6 or 7 per like Dahlin, a back-up is a low hit or Levi on his ELC. Joker hasn't earned much of an increase, VO can be replaced with Savoie, Kulich, Ostlund, Rosen etc down the road. Gus and Okposo are likely gone in 2 - 3 seasons and aren't getting much anyway, Mittelstadt, Asplund, Jost, Bryson, Boosh etc are all replaceable and none other than maybe Mitts has earned an increase.

Honestly the worst case scenario would be in 25-26 you buy out the remaining 2 years of Skinners deal, but the projected cap by then is 92+.

You still aren't doing the math -- just listing numbers isn't math.

We can afford Meir, yes, but then we prevent ourselves from making any other moves for four years, unless we do a buyout; and if you're a GM who gets yourself into a position where you have to buy a guy out to meet the cap before you win a single playoff game, you're a failure.

no interest in Meier on contract reasons

Sabres don't have interest in him either -- it's only a topic because some rando said he wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo was involved. Less than nothing.