Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[SnuggaRUDE]

There's also the match-ups they face. Granato typically isn't throwing out the rookies against other teams top lines. We've seen games where opposing coaches will seek out those match-ups when the Sabres are on the road, but at home Granato will often try to line Quinn/JJ up with lesser competition when he has the 2nd line change advantage.

And I’m not sure why this doesn’t translate in the standings. They’re markedly better away than home. On paper the Sabres seem vulnerable to matchups.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Hide him from what?

Deployment which would lead to goals against

 

[Fezzy126]

Deployment which would lead to goals against

The deploy Quinn on the PK, I doubt they're worried about him defensively

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

The deploy Quinn on the PK, I doubt they're worried about him defensively

The PK is far different than playing well defensively 5v5. PK duties is more about positioning, cutting off lanes and preventing a goal while being pinned in their own end. Plenty of players excel on the PK while still not being great defensively, not to mention Buffalo has one of the worst PK's in the league.

 

[Fezzy126]

The PK is far different than playing well defensively 5v5. PK duties is more about positioning, cutting off lanes and preventing a goal while being pinned in their own end. Plenty of players excel on the PK while still not being great defensively, not to mention Buffalo has one of the worst PK's in the league.

I'd be interested in hearing a few examples

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

I'd be interested in hearing a few examples

From last season. Sean Durzi, Logan Couture, and Gustav Nyquist are a few that come to mind. Please tell me more about how a kid playing some PK minutes on one of the worst PK teams in the league means he can handle playing against top lines 5v5 though. Kids played a total of 16 minutes on the PK.

 

[Jim Bob]

NHL Power Rankings: Midseason grades for every team

It's report card time and we'll be grading each NHL team on a curve based on what was expected of them before the season began.

theathletic.com

18. Buffalo Sabres​

Last Week: 17
Record: 20-18-2
Sean rank: 18
Dom rank: 19

Midseason grade: B+

That’s factoring in an A-plus-plus for Big Strong Tage.



Everything about the Sabres is middle-class and rising. They’re one of the few teams in the league that should be thrilled about an 85-point projection, and that’s where they find themselves.

 

[toddkaz]

Adams inability to improve the defense is concerning. Bryson, Boosh, Clague are a trainwreck.

No one in the system, not counting on Johnson. So a trade is going to have to happen to improve this defense.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Fezzy126]

From last season. Sean Durzi, Logan Couture, and Gustav Nyquist are a few that come to mind. Please tell me more about how a kid playing some PK minutes on one of the worst PK teams in the league means he can handle playing against top lines 5v5 though. Kids played a total of 16 minutes on the PK.

1) Couture is very good defensively
2) Durzi is a defenseman
3) ok, you found one - Nyquist sucks. But he never played on the PK until he met Brad Larsen, who's probably about to get fired.

My point remains, bad defensive players don't get put on the PK (unless it's a "throw Eichel out there when there are 10 seconds left to try and spring a quick counter-attack" situation). Also, making a blanket statement about our PK ranking without acknowledging the plethora of other issues is a strawman argument.

My overall point remains - Quinn is good defensively, his only shortcomings are a lack of strength and experience. He knows how to mark his man, he has an active stick. The data also backs up the eyes on this one:

 

[Bendium]

Adams inability to improve the defense is concerning. Bryson, Boosh, Clague are a trainwreck.

No one in the system, not counting on Johnson. So a trade is going to have to happen to improve this defense.

Likely needs 2-3 trades/UFA signings, and drafting to get the defensive corps and pipeline back intact.

1. Need a top 4 dman. I like Joker but as a very good third line dman, not a marginally servicable second pairing guy. He just wont be good enough to be a top 4 on a playoff team.

2. Need one solid third line pairing. I prefer a vet here. Johnson if he signs could fill it. Boosh is servicable but not ideal.

3. Trade one of our top forward prospects for an equivillent dman prospect that is only a year or two away, or even add something for a better one.

4. Draft 1-2 dmen with our 4 top 60 picks this year.

The situation with our defensive pipeline is crystal clear. No amount of patience and development will improve it. So any more waiting to fix it is an unnecessary delay. Find the right trades, and do not be so afraid to trade assets you have excess of to fill holes in your roster and pipeline.

This challenge is in front of KA now, not this offseason. We are about to find out if KA can lead this organization into the next phase of this team build. He owes his core players that have been playing over expectations, to get them some help.

 

[toddkaz]

Likely needs 2-3 trades/UFA signings, and drafting to get the defensive corps and pipeline back intact.

1. Need a top 4 dman. I like Joker but as a very good third line dman, not a marginally servicable second pairing guy. He just wont be good enough to be a top 4 on a playoff team.

2. Need one solid third line pairing. I prefer a vet here. Johnson if he signs could fill it. Boosh is servicable but not ideal.

3. Trade one of our top forward prospects for an equivillent dman prospect that is only a year or two away, or even add something for a better one.

4. Draft 1-2 dmen with our 4 top 60 picks this year.

The situation with our defensive pipeline is crystal clear. No amount of patience and development will improve it. So any more waiting to fix it is an unnecessary delay. Find the right trades, and do not be so afraid to trade assets you have excess of to fill holes in your roster and pipeline.

This challenge is in front of KA now, not this offseason. We are about to find out if KA can lead this organization into the next phase of this team build. He owes his core players that have been playing over expectations, to get them some help.

I am just a guy on a couch but where are the defensive prospects from drafting? We are getting good prospects but whats with the two russians and a goalie last year and 3 forwards this year we have no defensive prospects. If you look at the defensive prospects on the board last year there are multiple defenders who fell from the first round.



I didn't even mention UFAs on defense because Buffalo is a tough sell and I am not sure that you could even get a top 4 defender to come here at a reasonable price and I don't see Adam overpaying.

That leaves trading for a young defender and prospects picks will have to go the other way.

Adams says he wants the group to grow together but where are those defenders? Ya we have Power, Samuelsson and Dahlin even if you want to throw Joker in there(been terrible as of late) we don't have a 5-6 defender anywhere in sight.

I completely agree, trade some prospects/picks for equal talented defense prospect would make a huge difference or steal one from a team like the Nylander for Joker trade.

 

[Aladyyn]

1) Couture is very good defensively
2) Durzi is a defenseman
3) ok, you found one - Nyquist sucks. But he never played on the PK until he met Brad Larsen, who's probably about to get fired.

My point remains, bad defensive players don't get put on the PK (unless it's a "throw Eichel out there when there are 10 seconds left to try and spring a quick counter-attack" situation). Also, making a blanket statement about our PK ranking without acknowledging the plethora of other issues is a strawman argument.

My overall point remains - Quinn is good defensively, his only shortcomings are a lack of strength and experience. He knows how to mark his man, he has an active stick. The data also backs up the eyes on this one:

View attachment 634623

It's fair to say that they're keeping Quinn's minutes on the lower end because of where he is in his physical development (Peterka is significantly further along imo) but yea it has nothing to do with his ability. Sometimes a young player is just good and that's all there is to it. Maybe he won't be able to have the same impact if he's suddenly asked to play 5 minutes more than he is but that's a different conversation. But at some point if everyone does better when they play with Quinn... maybe Quinn is just that guy and we don't have to qualify that.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

For UFAs, I would go after Graves, Severson, and Gavrikov, maybe Mayfield.

 

[Bendium]

I am just a guy on a couch but where are the defensive prospects from drafting? We are getting good prospects but whats with the two russians and a goalie last year and 3 forwards this year we have no defensive prospects. If you look at the defensive prospects on the board last year there are multiple defenders who fell from the first round.



I didn't even mention UFAs on defense because Buffalo is a tough sell and I am not sure that you could even get a top 4 defender to come here at a reasonable price and I don't see Adam overpaying.

That leaves trading for a young defender and prospects picks will have to go the other way.

Adams says he wants the group to grow together but where are those defenders? Ya we have Power, Samuelsson and Dahlin even if you want to throw Joker in there(been terrible as of late) we don't have a 5-6 defender anywhere in sight.

I completely agree, trade some prospects/picks for equal talented defense prospect would make a huge difference or steal one from a team like the Nylander for Joker trade.

To the bolded.

Unlike the NFL where you can somewhat draft for need. I do not believe you should ever draft in the NHL for need. It is too much of a crapshoot. So you draft the highest potential you can find regardless of position, because you are trying to turn that draft value into real value to either fill roster spots or trade to fill roster spots. If you have a group of equivalent players you can try to balance the pipeline but otherwise.

Then, as they develop into valuable prospects and players, do not be afraid to trade them for assets you need and to balance out you roster and pipeline. Picks, prospects, and players, are all just currency. As a GM you cannot be to attached to any off those assets, and you cannot be afraid to make trades to shape things. People are always focused on what you lose in a trade, and completely forget what you are gaining in it.

 

[toddkaz]

To the bolded.

Unlike the NFL where you can somewhat draft for need. I do not believe you should ever draft in the NHL for need. It is too much of a crapshoot. So you draft the highest potential you can find regardless of position, because you are trying to turn that draft value into real value to either fill roster spots or trade to fill roster spots. If you have a group of equivalent players you can try to balance the pipeline but otherwise.

Then, as they develop into valuable prospects and players, do not be afraid to trade them for assets you need and to balance out you roster and pipeline. Picks, prospects, and players, are all just currency. As a GM you cannot be to attached to any off those assets, and you cannot be afraid to make trades to shape things. People are always focused on what you lose in a trade, and completely forget what you are gaining in it.

And with that here we are with no defensive prospects in the system.

Drafting Leinonen in the 2nd round was definitely a reach and there were plenty defenders as BPA in that spot. Warren, Casey, Havelid and Luneau to name a few were higher ranked than Leinonen and by far and some were predicted to go in the first round.

Leinonen was a 3rd round draft prospect taken in the second round.

 

[Bendium]

And with that here we are with no defensive prospects in the system.

Drafting Leinonen in the 2nd round was definitely a reach and there were plenty defenders as BPA in that spot. Warren, Casey, Havelid and Luneau to name a few were higher ranked than Leinonen and by far and some were predicted to go in the first round.

Leinonen was a 3rd round draft prospect taken in the second round.

I agree that Leinonen was not the best player available. I can argue myself into the pick but don't love it.

The bolded is due to failure of the second part of drafting, and that is trading assets to balance your system. Trade 2 of top 6 forward prospects for equivalent value dman prospects and your pipeline is fixed. When we traded Eichel, we got all forward prospects and players back, and used the 1st on forward as well.

We have an excess of forward prospects and talent coming up the pipeline, especially when compared to the spots left to be filled on the big club. Our next few trades need to be focused on shifting some our forward value into defensive value.

KA has some work to do here. It concerns me that this problem has been apparent for some time now without action.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

The deploy Quinn on the PK, I doubt they're worried about him defensively

Then why not play him more?

1) Couture is very good defensively
2) Durzi is a defenseman
3) ok, you found one - Nyquist sucks. But he never played on the PK until he met Brad Larsen, who's probably about to get fired.

My point remains, bad defensive players don't get put on the PK (unless it's a "throw Eichel out there when there are 10 seconds left to try and spring a quick counter-attack" situation). Also, making a blanket statement about our PK ranking without acknowledging the plethora of other issues is a strawman argument.

My overall point remains - Quinn is good defensively, his only shortcomings are a lack of strength and experience. He knows how to mark his man, he has an active stick. The data also backs up the eyes on this one:

View attachment 634623

Quinn is Buffalo’s 10th forward PK’er. Let’s not act like he’s a stalwart. If he’s this good why aren’t they playing him more in defensive situations? It’s precisely Buffalo’s need.

 

[Chainshot]

And with that here we are with no defensive prospects in the system.

Drafting Leinonen in the 2nd round was definitely a reach and there were plenty defenders as BPA in that spot. Warren, Casey, Havelid and Luneau to name a few were higher ranked than Leinonen and by far and some were predicted to go in the first round.

Leinonen was a 3rd round draft prospect taken in the second round.

The balance of their prospects is very forward heavy. The ones they do have all come with some level of doubt:

Johnson - could exercise destination control if he wants to at the end of his year and sign elsewhere this summer.
Komarov - nice season in the Q for one of the best junior teams in Canada? For a RHD? This guy flies under the radar since he's still a way off, but he could *if everything goes very well* be exactly what they need.
Novikov - playing 6th/7th D for a KHL team at his age is laudable and his contract with Dynamo is up this year but will he come over to ride the bus in Rochester instead of staying in Moscow? Will there be any issue with immigration?
Lindgren - still time to marinate, not having the season we fans likely wanted but still talent who could be a pro down the line.
Lyckasen - Eh. Don't feel much one way or another as he's a small, PMD in the Allsvenskan.

 

[Grouch]

Krebs down and Quinn up......only for a day? Krebs out tomorrow for a break even though he has drastically looked better? Asplund or Vinnie the other out if so?

Gonna see a lot of this as they (mis)handle this roster and 3 goalies.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

I'd be interested in hearing a few examples

Kyle Connor, Draisaitl, Horvat, Jeff Carter, JT Miller

 

[DustyZ]

We are currently sitting in the 11 spot for lottery odds, and are 2 weeks of hockey away from sitting at 8.

Any trade which involves our number 1 pick for this year is literally CooCoo Ca-choo Nuts f***ing Insane!!

 

[joshjull]

View attachment 634553

I think this chart demonstrates some of the difficulties any single trade would face. Most of the team is negative 5v5. (x-axis is minutes/game).

They're about -6.5 xGd 5v5, and -4 xGd Special Teams. That's not a good stat; given how good their power play is their penalty kill is super bad. They're like +22 xG 5v4 and -26 xG 4v5. They get a fair amount more power plays than they give up.

Sabres hockey is fun and exciting, but just about every line is losing unless Dahlin is out with them. Cozens is doing surprisingly well given the amount of defensive shifts he starts. Quinn looks better on the chart than he actually is, he gets a lot of sheltered deployments.

I don’t think that chart tells us all that much. There isn’t enough info as is always the case with individual xGF.

As for every line losing, you’d have to post their numbers as lines. Not as individual xGF. Same thing for Dahlin’s impact on each line.

I’ll use our top line to make my point

Skinner/Tage/Tuch (338mins) xGF% of 53% with OZS% 59%
184mins with Dahlin —> xGF% 51% /OZS% 64%
154mins w/o Dahlin —->xGF% 56% / OZS% 55%

We need a lot more info than that chart to start breaking down whats going on.

Same with Quinn. He was part of the rotation to start the season with 2gms in/2gms out. But since the kid line was put toghter the lion’s share of his minutes are with them.

Quinn/Cozens/Peterka
205mins
OZS% 49%
xGF% 58%

Quinn, Peterka and usually Krebs have frequently sat late in games. It happens when defending a lead AND trying to get back into a game. If you want to call that getting sheltered thats fine. But Quinn is not being singled out for this treatment. Its all the youngsters. But the bulk of Quinn’s 5v5 mintues playing with his line are not sheltered minutes.


There is more info to use to further fill out the picture.

 

[debaser66]

It's about making sure Power develops into the elite 1D. It's not about making the playoffs, or bringing in someone who can just get the job done.

Dahlin was nearly ruined by Krueger, but saved by Granato and thriving with Samuelsson. If a team came asking about Samuelsson in a trade, we'd all ask for a 1st back, if we don't outright deny the offer.

Ekholm is what we all want Samuelsson to develop into. He's only available because Nashville is bad, needs cap space, and Ekholm is over 30.

Make the move to aid Power's development and the playoffs will come.

to be fair Sami is younger, and is signed long term to a much better deal

 

[jcbeze]

We are currently sitting in the 11 spot for lottery odds, and are 2 weeks of hockey away from sitting at 8.

Any trade which involves our number 1 pick for this year is literally CooCoo Ca-choo Nuts f***ing Insane!!

View attachment 634686

What's the Panthers asterisk?