Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[TheMistyStranger]

Had a dream the Sabres brought in Luke Adam to be 3C. That was a startling thing to wake up to.

 

[Jim Bob]

Move over, Rod Langway: Canes’ Jaccob Slavin is NHL’s No. 1 Shutdown Defenseman

Slavin leads our list of blueliners who smother opposing offense better than anyone.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

I wonder if Sanheim is a guy that Adams could pry out of Philly...

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Move over, Rod Langway: Canes’ Jaccob Slavin is NHL’s No. 1 Shutdown Defenseman

Slavin leads our list of blueliners who smother opposing offense better than anyone.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

I wonder if Sanheim is a guy that Adams could pry out of Philly...

He just signed an 8 year extension that starts next season. I don't think he is going anywhere. He was always a good player to target as a possibly undervalued player, but it seems they do highly value him.

 

[Djp]

There are 22 NHL D that are age 32+ and averaging over 20 minutes per game played this season. 17 of those are 32 or 33yo.

Ekholm's age and hoping that he is an outlier that can continue to play well through the remainder of the contract would be the gamble.

And given the comparable trades that were in the article I linked, it sounds like people are expecting Ekholm to net way more in trade than he actually might. It might be a deal where the Sabres get him for a 2nd and a non-elite prospect like Bloom or Nadeau. Or a 2nd and Ryan Johnson.

If the Sabres can get Ekholm for a 2nd and Ryan Johnson, that would be tough for me to turn down.

You should include all 32+ Dmen still playing no matter the minutes. Thst is the point. Many don’t play 20 min anymore because they can’t and need to be protected.

people on here have made the issue in Bryson playing more minutes causes more problems.

the max id go on him is a late 2nd and a contract without any retrntion. Not moving Johnson. If they want a better prospect thrn the pick is less. I’m not trading a top 50 drafted prospect.

his actual pay is $6.5M the last 3 yrs with no bonus money.

 

[MOGlLNY]

You should include all 32+ Dmen still playing no matter the minutes. Thst is the point. Many don’t play 20 min anymore because they can’t and need to be protected.

people on here have made the issue in Bryson playing more minutes causes more problems.

the max id go on him is a late 2nd and a contract without any retrntion. Not moving Johnson. If they want a better prospect thrn the pick is less. I’m not trading a top 50 drafted prospect.

his actual pay is $6.5M the last 3 yrs with no bonus money.

Are you Terry? Because otherwise why does his actual salary matter to you

 

[Beerz]

I wouldn't mind going after Bertuzzi as a Olofsson replacement

Tho Kevin would probably see it as a "blocking" move.

 

[Jim Bob]

You should include all 32+ Dmen still playing no matter the minutes. Thst is the point. Many don’t play 20 min anymore because they can’t and need to be protected.

people on here have made the issue in Bryson playing more minutes causes more problems.

the max id go on him is a late 2nd and a contract without any retrntion. Not moving Johnson. If they want a better prospect thrn the pick is less. I’m not trading a top 50 drafted prospect.

his actual pay is $6.5M the last 3 yrs with no bonus money.

I threw Johnson out there assuming that he has told Adams that he will not sign with Buffalo.

In that case, he is merely a late '24 2nd round pick and not really a top 50 drafted prospect.

There are 44 NHL D 32yo+ this season. 39 of which have played 20+ games so far this season. So, slightly more than 1 per team.

And there are 12 NHL D 35yo+ with 20+ GP. 5 of them are playing 20+ minutes per night (Letang, Burns, Petry, Suter, and Jack Johnson). There are 4 more in the 18-20 minutes per night range (Alec Martinez, Giordano, Vlasic, and Marc Staal).

 

[Aladyyn]

While I don't disagree that Buffalo absolutely could use some upgrades on the defense, I'm going to point out that this team leaking goals is not entirely because of 3rd pairing Dmen and bad goaltending. Adding a 2nd pairing Dman and a goalie will not solve the teams issues which are far bigger than just 1 or 2 players.

Structure, inexperience etc are a glaring problem from my point of view and until they ALL start playing a 200 foot game those things will not change.

Take a look at the teams with the highest expected goals against in the league. If you notice, the Sabres are the 5th worst and would likely be 4th worst if the games played was equal. Something else to point out here is that 4 of the 6 teams are all terrible. Buffalo and the Blues places in the standings do not reflect how bad they've been defensively. Both have been outscoring their problems more often than not, but that isn't something they can rely on.

View attachment 633638

On the opposite side of that spectrum we have the the teams with the fewest expected goals against. There is a trend here as well. 5 of the top 6 are among the best teams in the league with Detroit being the anomaly. Detroit is easily explained by their poor offensive output.

View attachment 633640

I know a lot of people on here cringe at advanced metrics, but these tend to line up with the standings most of the time. The eye test also tells us Buffalo gives up a ton of high danger chances, odd man rushes and overall high percentage scoring chances almost every game.

Any talk of if we had Ullmark, if we had Ekholm, if we had Chychrun doesn't fix a bigger issue. Sure adding them would definitely help, but can Don please institute some more defensive responsibility? They don't need to go full Barry Trotz here, but consistently playing defensively would help. Jersey plays a high tempo system and yet their players are still defensively responsible, I don't see why the Sabres can't as well.

Sabres play a high event game that leads to lots of chances, yes. That does not mean the 3rd pairing is not a glaring issue though. We outscore and outchance teams when either Dahlin or Power are on the ice and get absolutely killed when they're not. And Dahlin even does it while getting good defensive numbers (both with and without Sammy).

 

[Djp]

I threw Johnson out there assuming that he has told Adams that he will not sign with Buffalo.

In that case, he is merely a late '24 2nd round pick and not really a top 50 drafted prospect.

There are 44 NHL D 32yo+ this season. 39 of which have played 20+ games so far this season. So, slightly more than 1 per team.

And there are 12 NHL D 35yo+ with 20+ GP. 5 of them are playing 20+ minutes per night (Letang, Burns, Petry, Suter, and Jack Johnson). There are 4 more in the 18-20 minutes per night range (Alec Martinez, Giordano, Vlasic, and Marc Staal).

you are also excluding those who played at 32 who aren’t in the league anymore…..this is called sampling bias

i think he does sign in buffalo. He’s not a UZFA till aug 16. He plays this year he burns his ELC year.

if he said he was not signing then buffalo would have traded him. He’s not some throw in.

 

[Jim Bob]

you are also excluding those who played at 32 who aren’t in the league anymore…..this is called sampling bias

i think he does sign in buffalo. He’s not a UZFA till aug 16. He plays this year he burns his ELC year.

if he said he was not signing then buffalo would have traded him. He’s not some throw in.

I am trying to look at how many guys can be effective NHL D for the remainder of the contract that Ekholm has.

It is imperfect to look at the current sample size. But, I don't know how is it some sort of bias. If a 32yo D isn't in the NHL anymore, then that isn't a guy that would say that Ekholm has a decent shot of being a servicable NHL D at 35 or 36.

And as far as Johnson goes, maybe. But, I do not believe it is a lock that he signs here. And Adams certainly has way more information in that regard than you or I.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

I am trying to look at how many guys can be effective NHL D for the remainder of the contract that Ekholm has.

It is imperfect to look at the current sample size. But, I don't know how is it some sort of bias. If a 32yo D isn't in the NHL anymore, then that isn't a guy that would say that Ekholm has a decent shot of being a servicable NHL D at 35 or 36.

And as far as Johnson goes, maybe. But, I do not believe it is a lock that he signs here. And Adams certainly has way more information in that regard than you or I.

I mean it's techincally survivorship bias because you're only looking at players that made it to their mid 30s playing 20+ mins without considering the players that didn't. You'd need to look at all the guys around 31-32 years old how they progressed into their 30s over the last 10 years. The list of guys is pretty small and is usually offensive minded guys that were PP QBs like Letang, Keith, Burns etc..

 

[Jim Bob]

I mean it's techincally survivorship bias because you're only looking at players that made it to their mid 30s playing 20+ mins without considering the players that didn't. You'd need to look at all the guys around 31-32 years old how they progressed into their 30s over the last 10 years. The list of guys is pretty small and is usually offensive minded guys that were PP QBs like Letang, Keith, Burns etc..

But isn't that the point?

Look at the survivors, compare them to Ekholm, and try and guess if he can survive?

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

But isn't that the point?

Look at the survivors, compare them to Ekholm, and try and guess if he can survive?

No because you're just limiting your view to only positive results.

 

[Jim Bob]

No because you're just limiting your view to only positive results.

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…

hockey-graphs.com

Is that better?

 

[Zman5778]

I wouldn't mind going after Bertuzzi as a Olofsson replacement

Tho Kevin would probably see it as a "blocking" move.

We've more than likely got our Olofsson replacement already in Rochester in either Kulich or Rosen. No reason to bring in another offense-heavy forward with what we've got coming.

 

[Chainshot]

Reading that Athletic article to find Ian Mitchell on the outs in Chicago. I wonder if he could be a buy low candidate at the right age to at least get a chance? Seems to fit the mold for PMD the team seems to like. He may have shifted from prospect to suspect like Clague did before his departure from LA to Montreal. Just a thought.

 

[Ace]

Would love to see them apply their new, should have already existed, knowledge that Clague actually blows and Power was good enough for both of them to Jokiharju. Move him to his own pair so you can see what you have. And when you catch up realize you need three new NHL D

 

[Djp]

But isn't that the point?

Look at the survivors, compare them to Ekholm, and try and guess if he can survive?

No because you're just limiting your view to only positive results.

you need to look at those who started from their UFA years say at 27 and track their careers till they are 32 and beyond to say 46+

the other factors in play are their dtyle/ role in D. They might have bern a true top pair all situations D at 27 but now at 33 they are in a much more limited role.

the ones who generally are not physical Dmrn but more offense PP QB tend to last longer.

thr other piece thst is subjective is of those who get from 27 to 36…how was the ROI in their play comparing salary/ cap space.

i have no problem taking a shot and signing someone 33+ to a short 1-2 yr contract making under $2M per. That's very different than a bloated contract paying for prior prime years.

 

[toddkaz]

Trading doesn't come at the snap of your fingers but damn how long is Adams going to let the Boosh and Clague clown show continue?(Throw Bryson in there too)

Sure Boosh isn't getting traded but sheltered as the 6th defender and 12 minutes a game is fine.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…

hockey-graphs.com

Is that better?

Yea and this is more recent

 

[Beerz]

We've more than likely got our Olofsson replacement already in Rochester in either Kulich or Rosen. No reason to bring in another offense-heavy forward with what we've got coming.

Bertuzzi is a good 2 way forward with grit .. and I don't want to bank on all these prospects panning out..

But looks like he is going to cost more than I'd like to spend on that type of piece

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…

hockey-graphs.com

Is that better?

Defensemen last much longer -- interesting.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Not a shock. And I gotta think that it's a direct message to Ryan Johnson -- "There's a spot here waiting for you when you sign".

He just might be confident (and in communication with Johnson’s camp) that he will be signing in a few months. If that’s the case, I’m okay with not making moves. Johnson-Boosh is an interesting pairing.

And this is more than fine for the time being as players grow:

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Joker
Johnson - Boosh

At that point, we have our six defensemen. And the only way we are adding a starter is if someone is going out. So in KA’s mind, we may already have our 6. Despite what we all may think, the team is not ready to move on from Joker or Boosh so we only have one opening. And that might already be filled by Ryan Johnson.

Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t get better depth. But Bryson seems like a pretty good number 7

 

[Bendium]

He just might be confident (and in communication with Johnson’s camp) that he will be signing in a few months. If that’s the case, I’m okay with not making moves. Johnson-Boosh is an interesting pairing.

And this is more than fine for the time being as players grow:

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - Joker
Johnson - Boosh

At that point, we have our six defensemen. And the only way we are adding a starter is if someone is going out. So in KA’s mind, we may already have our 6. Despite what we all may think, the team is not ready to move on from Joker or Boosh so we only have one opening. And that might already be filled by Ryan Johnson.

Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t get better depth. But Bryson seems like a pretty good number 7

I prefer still getting a middle pair Dman and fielding.

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - NewGuy
Johnson - Joker
Boosh

Bryson and or Clague swapped in trade for NewGuy

 

[Ace]

Any time someone says “well trades don’t just happen overnight” the site should automatically add “Adams should have addressed this long before now” right after it.

We are all well aware that trades are hard.

We are all well aware that trades take time.

We were all well aware before Power even signed his pro contract that they needed to address another top 4 D.

Anytime someone says “its not like Adams can snap his fingers and a move happens” they’re ignoring that the hole has been there, well known to him and everyone else, since they won the 2021 draft lottery.

it doesn’t take this f***ing long