Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[thewookie1]

I'm good with this:

Trade 2023 1st (unprotected), Clague, and Bloom to Nashville for Ekholm.

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Ekholm - Power
Bryson - Jokiharju
x Lyubushkin

I have zero interest in trading our 1st for a 32 year old defenseman.

 

[Bendium]

1. The current NHL team absolutely needs another middle pair defenseman, that at least has solid defensive skills.
2. We do not have this player currently in our pipeline, and no 2023 draft pick is taking that spot for 3-6 years.
3. We have more assets currently than we have space for. Some will have to be moved.

After reading all the pro's and cons around various defensman we could trade for, I am have decided for myself that my preferance is Ekholm. I very much like Chechyrun, but cannot bring a plan together that works with price and term.

Ekholm works for me for the following reasons:

1. He is a solid second pairing defensive dman.
2. Has this year plus 3 more under contract at a reasonable AAV.
3. Is an experienced veteran leader that could do alot for our young dmen development.
4. Would come at a more reasonable price for the effect.
5. Could play top 4 for a couple years and then hold down the third pair when we are really making a push his last year or two.
6. Aligns well with giving Power a 2 year bridge and then a max term extension as Ekholm comes of the books.
7. Allows Joker to become a very good third pairing dman that can move up for injuries.
8. You pitch Johnson on burning one year of his ELC this year, and then holding down the third pairing with either Ekholm or Joker as his partner, knowing that if he plays well it will be be very reasonable for him to take over a second pairing role when he is ready, with both Joker and Ekholm layered in to come off the books.

Sammy - Dahlin
Powers - Eklund
Johnson - Joker
7th Clague

Late in game need a push? Power - Dahlin

Late in game need to lock it down? Sammy - Eklund

Draft some dmen this year. Maybe trade one of the "big 4" for an equivelent value dman prospect to balance out the pipeline a bit.

I like it. Make it happen KA.

 

[Zman5778]

1. The current NHL team absolutely needs another middle pair defenseman, that at least has solid defensive skills.
2. We do not have this player currently in our pipeline, and no 2023 draft pick is taking that spot for 3-6 years.
3. We have more assets currently than we have space for. Some will have to be moved.

After reading all the pro's and cons around various defensman we could trade for, I am have decided for myself that my preferance is Ekholm. I very much like Chechyrun, but cannot bring a plan together that works with price and term.

Ekholm works for me for the following reasons:

1. He is a solid second pairing defensive dman.
2. Has this year plus 3 more under contract at a reasonable AAV.
3. Is an experienced veteran leader that could do alot for our young dmen development.
4. Would come at a more reasonable price for the effect.
5. Could play top 4 for a couple years and then hold down the third pair when we are really making a push his last year or two.
6. Aligns well with giving Power a 2 year bridge and then a max term extension as Ekholm comes of the books.
7. Allows Joker to become a very good third pairing dman that can move up for injuries.
8. You pitch Johnson on burning one year of his ELC this year, and then holding down the third pairing with either Ekholm or Joker as his partner, knowing that if he plays well it will be be very reasonable for him to take over a second pairing role when he is ready, with both Joker and Ekholm layered in to come off the books.

Sammy - Dahlin
Powers - Eklund
Johnson - Joker
7th Clague

Late in game need a push? Power - Dahlin

Late in game need to lock it down? Sammy - Eklund

Draft some dmen this year. Maybe trade one of the "big 4" for an equivelent value dman prospect to balance out the pipeline a bit.

I like it. Make it happen KA.

I like every bit of your post..................except the bolded/italics.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Samuelson us called a last 1st going forward being picked at 32.

Idiots trade unprotected 1st.


no…generally top 20 picks are every day nhl players. Some might not be superstars. It’s rare you get no shows.

once you are after 20 into the 24-40 range you start running into a high probability of the player not making it beyond call ups. Because of where they were drafted and if this is the GMs guy, they get multiple chances.


draw straws on if Quinn, Peterka, or Krebs wins paper transaction of the day when UPL plays


generally true. If he’s that closed off then there is a real problem if you are t listening to the coaches and scouts seriously.

you do need to have long range plans for the cap in mind and have a 3-5 yr time horizon in mind.


Ekholm at his sge serious concerns me with him falling off a cliff. I know Buffalo can handle his salary but in not sacrificing the crazy ask for him as if he was 35. Nashville needs the space next year.

problrm with Fabbro is you are then possibly push D to their off side.

my preference is getting a D better than Bryson who can play 2nd pair now snd 3rd pair next year and have a RD in thr pipeline who can replace Lyub in 24/25

see what I said just above.

You will regret it …two years from now complaining of Ekholm bad play and realize we would have a D ready to replace him when his contract ends of we picked a D in 23 1st.


not trading 23 1st unless it’s top 25 protected. evrn a protected one I’d kick in condition compensation if the pick is higher where they give us a 2nd.

with Arizona. In 24 draft I think they have 3 2nds so tie getting a 2nd back to where the 1st is located.

Schen won’t get money if he is cup chasing. They give him $1.5M at best. Buffalo could offer a little more In terms of pay. A lot will depend on how thry finish.

What makes you think Ekholm is going to fall off?

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

While I don't disagree that Buffalo absolutely could use some upgrades on the defense, I'm going to point out that this team leaking goals is not entirely because of 3rd pairing Dmen and bad goaltending. Adding a 2nd pairing Dman and a goalie will not solve the teams issues which are far bigger than just 1 or 2 players.

Structure, inexperience etc are a glaring problem from my point of view and until they ALL start playing a 200 foot game those things will not change.

Take a look at the teams with the highest expected goals against in the league. If you notice, the Sabres are the 5th worst and would likely be 4th worst if the games played was equal. Something else to point out here is that 4 of the 6 teams are all terrible. Buffalo and the Blues places in the standings do not reflect how bad they've been defensively. Both have been outscoring their problems more often than not, but that isn't something they can rely on.

On the opposite side of that spectrum we have the the teams with the fewest expected goals against. There is a trend here as well. 5 of the top 6 are among the best teams in the league with Detroit being the anomaly. Detroit is easily explained by their poor offensive output.

I know a lot of people on here cringe at advanced metrics, but these tend to line up with the standings most of the time. The eye test also tells us Buffalo gives up a ton of high danger chances, odd man rushes and overall high percentage scoring chances almost every game.

Any talk of if we had Ullmark, if we had Ekholm, if we had Chychrun doesn't fix a bigger issue. Sure adding them would definitely help, but can Don please institute some more defensive responsibility? They don't need to go full Barry Trotz here, but consistently playing defensively would help. Jersey plays a high tempo system and yet their players are still defensively responsible, I don't see why the Sabres can't as well.

 

[Djp]

What makes you think Ekholm is going to fall off?

probability…..most players do at this point of their career at being 32+.

 

[K8fool]

While I don't disagree that Buffalo absolutely could use some upgrades on the defense, I'm going to point out that this team leaking goals is not entirely because of 3rd pairing Dmen and bad goaltending. Adding a 2nd pairing Dman and a goalie will not solve the teams issues which are far bigger than just 1 or 2 players.

Structure, inexperience etc are a glaring problem from my point of view and until they ALL start playing a 200 foot game those things will not change.

Take a look at the teams with the highest expected goals against in the league. If you notice, the Sabres are the 5th worst and would likely be 4th worst if the game played was equal. Something else to point out here is that 4 of the 6 teams are all terrible. Buffalo and the Blues places in the standings do not reflect how bad they've been defensively. Both have been outscoring their problems more often than not, but they isn't something they can rely on.

View attachment 633638

On the opposite side of that spectrum we have the the teams with the fewest expected goals against. There is a trend here as well. 5 of the top 6 are among the best teams in the league with Detroit being the anomaly. Detroit is easily explained by their poor offensive output.

View attachment 633640

I know a lot of people on here cringe at advanced metrics, but these tend to line up with the standings most of the time. The eye test also tells us Buffalo gives up a ton of high danger chances, odd man rushes and overall high percentage scoring chances almost every game.

Any talk of if we had Ullmark, if we had Ekholm, if we had Chychrun doesn't fix a bigger issue. Sure adding them would definitely help, but can Don please institute some more defensive responsibility? They don't need to go full Barry Trotz here, but consistently playing defensively would help. Jersey plays a high tempo system and yet their players are still defensively responsible, I don't see why the Sabres can't as well.

We had the solution and pissed on it, a goalie whose focus and athletism increases proportional to the challenge.. Anderson enjoys the challenge , upl thrived under it and got Ill going back to roc even in name only as he may have trust issues or maturity issues.. Comrie has maturity issues and may look better in a system established like Boston or Carolina but I've seen him look gifted enough to hang in our first trip out West ( maybe let him have a couple games we might not have to get back to pre injury)


I think upl will find he's in the right place once he's up and gets more games after the initial bad game recapturing his mojo, momentum whatever. Donnie and Adams will prove they have his back.

Sure they need to learn the team defense structure better but the teams listed are veteran teams we've beaten aside from Carolina.

Donnie , I imagine, will add responsibility to his team d concept without interrupting the confidence and freedom we've seen scoring goals..

We've run into two goalies that stood on their heads and saved everything the last 6 periods.

You're right in your assessment and could probably put together a great gaffe reel for all of our forwards and D .

I'm more interested in the same exact stats you posted but For Only the Last 20 games.. My eyes say this tells, at least, an improving story for us.

 

[thewookie1]

What makes you think Ekholm is going to fall off?

Base logic; rarely do defenseman age gracefully into their mid/later 30’s

Ekholm is 32 now and under contract until he’s at least 36. The number of 32+ year old defenseman are very few and far between. Some can carve out lesser roles akin to McDonough or Schenn but the vast majority fall off a cliff like Vlasic.

The cost is far too potentially high for even the rosiest of outcomes. The odds of us giving up a Top 10 pick in a stacked draft + more for 4 seasons of a 6mil Dman giving less each year are by far much higher than Ekholm playing great into his mid-30s and the Sabres making the playoffs thus pushing the 1st into the late teens/20s at minimum.

 

[thewookie1]

A pair of trades I came up were centered around

Olofsson(50%) and VGK’s 2nd for Foegele, EDM’s 1st and EDM’s 3rd in 2025

Then flip Foegele, EDM’s 1st, Bloom and Bryson to Nashville for Ekholm

That would limit the general risk of Ekholm’s acquisition by using a different 1st

 

[Bendium]

While I don't disagree that Buffalo absolutely could use some upgrades on the defense, I'm going to point out that this team leaking goals is not entirely because of 3rd pairing Dmen and bad goaltending. Adding a 2nd pairing Dman and a goalie will not solve the teams issues which are far bigger than just 1 or 2 players.

Structure, inexperience etc are a glaring problem from my point of view and until they ALL start playing a 200 foot game those things will not change.

Take a look at the teams with the highest expected goals against in the league. If you notice, the Sabres are the 5th worst and would likely be 4th worst if the games played was equal. Something else to point out here is that 4 of the 6 teams are all terrible. Buffalo and the Blues places in the standings do not reflect how bad they've been defensively. Both have been outscoring their problems more often than not, but that isn't something they can rely on.

View attachment 633638

On the opposite side of that spectrum we have the the teams with the fewest expected goals against. There is a trend here as well. 5 of the top 6 are among the best teams in the league with Detroit being the anomaly. Detroit is easily explained by their poor offensive output.

View attachment 633640

I know a lot of people on here cringe at advanced metrics, but these tend to line up with the standings most of the time. The eye test also tells us Buffalo gives up a ton of high danger chances, odd man rushes and overall high percentage scoring chances almost every game.

Any talk of if we had Ullmark, if we had Ekholm, if we had Chychrun doesn't fix a bigger issue. Sure adding them would definitely help, but can Don please institute some more defensive responsibility? They don't need to go full Barry Trotz here, but consistently playing defensively would help. Jersey plays a high tempo system and yet their players are still defensively responsible, I don't see why the Sabres can't as well.

I agree with most of your post, however, I want to do something about it.

Donnie does need to institute more defensive structure, but he has to have the players to do it as well.

I want us to get a middle pair or better dman for sure, but that wont fix it all.

The "kid" line is not a real second line, it is more of a third line. We need better middle six players. I want Hino, Aspland, Oloffson, and possibly Mitts replaced. And yes, if the better players come with the right age ranges and team control, then I am willing to part with some assets. (Not a Murray level selloff)

I would like to see our rookies seeing alittle Rochester time to continue development and regain confidence, and some of our older (23-24 years) Rochester guys seeing some NHL time.

I am all for patience. But there is no need left for patience with most of the bottom half of our rochester. Making changes there will benifit the core group right away.

 

[Mattilaus]

Too many people think Adams can just pick up the phone and trade for anyone in the NHL. What YOU think we should/would pay for Ekholm or Chych or whomever doesn't necessarily meet with reality. What happens when you try to trade for one of those two and Arizona or Nashville just says "Your 1st needs to be in the package, no protection, not interested in trading without it".

How do any of you know those conversations haven't already happened? No other team has traded for Chych or Ekholm either, does that mean every single GM in the NHL are just sitting on their hands?

Can anyone give me an example of a team making (as some of you have suggested) three even four big trades in the first half of a season?

 

[DustyZ]

Do we know the shots for vs shots against this season?

Just curious because it seems like we get out shot in most games.

And yes, I realize that's not always indictive of who the better team was that night.

Or if there's a scoring chance for and against stat for the season?

 

[Zman5778]

Do we know the shots for vs shots against this season?

Just curious because it seems like we get out shot in most games.

And yes, I realize that's not always indictive of who the better team was that night.

Or if there's a scoring chance for and against stat for the season?

We are T-13th in shots for per game (32.1) and 25th in shots allowed per game (33.1). No idea about scoring chances.

 

[DustyZ]

We are T-13th in shots for per game (32.1) and 25th in shots allowed per game (33.1). No idea about scoring chances.

I see

If you actually can make a correlation between more shots means better team that night, I would think that this statistic would also indicate that we are getting better than average goaltending as a team, since we are in fact over 500 record wise, given the fact that we are 13th for and 25th against.

Scoring chances might tell us more, but I can't see the stats being much different in that regard.

Going further, I might also think that sustaining an above 500 record or higher, might not be possible if this shot trend continues.

 

[DustyZ]

Actually I just noticed how marginal the difference appears, so not sure if anything I said really adds up necessarily.

 

[Ace]

Too many people think Adams can just pick up the phone and trade for anyone in the NHL. What YOU think we should/would pay for Ekholm or Chych or whomever doesn't necessarily meet with reality. What happens when you try to trade for one of those two and Arizona or Nashville just says "Your 1st needs to be in the package, no protection, not interested in trading without it".

How do any of you know those conversations haven't already happened? No other team has traded for Chych or Ekholm either, does that mean every single GM in the NHL are just sitting on their hands?

Can anyone give me an example of a team making (as some of you have suggested) three even four big trades in the first half of a season?

He’s been here for years.

it’s not impossible to ever trade for anyone.

especially with the most cap, and most assets in the league.

He needed to address this last offseason. He failed. He misjudged and he failed.

Now we’re still sitting with the cap space and assets just wasting time.

 

[BUCKSHOT]

He’s been here for years.

it’s not impossible to ever trade for anyone.

especially with the most cap, and most assets in the league.

He needed to address this last offseason. He failed. He misjudged and he failed.

Now we’re still sitting with the cap space and assets just wasting time.

in your opinion ...

Adams told us this would be another rebuilding season, seems like the team is ahead of where he thought they'd be this season

 

[Djp]

Too many people think Adams can just pick up the phone and trade for anyone in the NHL. What YOU think we should/would pay for Ekholm or Chych or whomever doesn't necessarily meet with reality. What happens when you try to trade for one of those two and Arizona or Nashville just says "Your 1st needs to be in the package, no protection, not interested in trading without it".

How do any of you know those conversations haven't already happened? No other team has traded for Chych or Ekholm either, does that mean every single GM in the NHL are just sitting on their hands?

Can anyone give me an example of a team making (as some of you have suggested) three even four big trades in the first half of a season?

i guess tim Murray did for ROR, Kane, and Lehner….but I tigress….

He’s been here for years.

it’s not impossible to ever trade for anyone.

especially with the most cap, and most assets in the league.

He needed to address this last offseason. He failed. He misjudged and he failed.

Now we’re still sitting with the cap space and assets just wasting time.

Because we had the most cap space we must use it now without looking 3-5 yrs ahead?

yet you complain of the Murray trades……

 

[Irie]

A pair of trades I came up were centered around

Olofsson(50%) and VGK’s 2nd for Foegele, EDM’s 1st and EDM’s 3rd in 2025

Then flip Foegele, EDM’s 1st, Bloom and Bryson to Nashville for Ekholm

That would limit the general risk of Ekholm’s acquisition by using a different 1st

I mean, I know Holland is a bad GM and all, but that deal is poor value for Edmonton, and it does nothing to fix the Oilers problems. Even Holland won't move their first unless a major piece to help their D is coming back.

Other than those small details, I really like the moves as a Sabres fan

 

[Zman5778]

He’s been here for years.

it’s not impossible to ever trade for anyone.

But he HAS made trades? Several trades that have benefitted Buffalo?

 

[Irie]

Any talk of if we had Ullmark, if we had Ekholm, if we had Chychrun doesn't fix a bigger issue. Sure adding them would definitely help, but can Don please institute some more defensive responsibility? They don't need to go full Barry Trotz here, but consistently playing defensively would help. Jersey plays a high tempo system and yet their players are still defensively responsible, I don't see why the Sabres can't as well.

Agreed.

I love Granato's work with developing the kids. Letting them make mistakes, and then teaching them when they do, and giving them free reign to develop their offense and be creative, but at some point, this team really does need to focus on defensive spacing, communication, and defensive assignment tracking.

Every game I watch the forwards skating in a swirling circle together around the zone chasing the puck right before a goal is scored against them. It is such a simple discipline thing and it drives me crazy to watch NHL players commit such a basic defensive sin.

I feels like the system is "just outskate your opponent, chase pucks and just win battles while ignoring positions, spacing, and communication". Playing the way they do they expend way more energy than they should and is a big reason they are often gassed at the end of games when they really shouldn't be.

 

[oldgoalie]

Agreed.

I love Granato's work with developing the kids. Letting them make mistakes, and then teaching them when they do, and giving them free reign to develop their offense and be creative, but at some point, this team really does need to focus on defensive spacing, communication, and defensive assignment tracking.

Every game I watch the forwards skating in a swirling circle together around the zone chasing the puck right before a goal is scored against them. It is such a simple discipline thing and it drives me crazy to watch NHL players commit such a basic defensive sin.

I feels like the system is "just outskate your opponent, chase pucks and just win battles while ignoring positions, spacing, and communication". Playing the way they do they expend way more energy than they should and is a big reason they are often gassed at the end of games when they really shouldn't be.

I thought it was just me. No one seems to give a damn for how lazy this is.

 

[zenthusiast]

that the Sabres could only bolster their team with an acquisition that would necessarily block development is so obviously untrue

 

[MarkusKetterer]

If we were in the start or early middle of a rebuild, then I might agree with you, but....

We are coming out of the rebuild. The near to medium future of the core (next 5 years) is either already on the team, already drafted or will be traded for this year or next. Trades and UFA will fill in the edges and balance. We are on our upward trend on the fringe of being a playoff team.

You're not drafting players this year to fill in missing parts of your core. You're drafting this year to have ELC money players available 3-6 years from now to augment roster talent and the cap at the same time.

We currently have way more good quality assets in the pipeline than we have spots for, except defense. So adding another one, or four if you include our 2nds this year, does not help the current team that much.

Also, this whole 2023 awesome draft value thing is way overhyped. It's really just that for the first time post covid, team will have full scouting and analytics on people, so their accuracy in the higher round will be better. In the previous couple drafts there were just as many good players, but they were harder to identify, so quantity of picks, even in later rounds had more value.

Lets not overvalue this one 2023 first round pick for more than it is. If anything, other teams likely overvalue it, so its a good time to take advantage.

Some of us are arguing that it’s available for the right fit. But nobody should argue that it should be unprotected. Doing that is where you get in to Byram for Duchene and Stutzle for Karlsson territory.

The only way you trade that with no protection would be that 1st for Makar. Or for Fox. Or even for Drysdale.

 

[Jim Bob]

Base logic; rarely do defenseman age gracefully into their mid/later 30’s

Ekholm is 32 now and under contract until he’s at least 36. The number of 32+ year old defenseman are very few and far between. Some can carve out lesser roles akin to McDonough or Schenn but the vast majority fall off a cliff like Vlasic.

The cost is far too potentially high for even the rosiest of outcomes. The odds of us giving up a Top 10 pick in a stacked draft + more for 4 seasons of a 6mil Dman giving less each year are by far much higher than Ekholm playing great into his mid-30s and the Sabres making the playoffs thus pushing the 1st into the late teens/20s at minimum.

There are 22 NHL D that are age 32+ and averaging over 20 minutes per game played this season. 17 of those are 32 or 33yo.

Ekholm's age and hoping that he is an outlier that can continue to play well through the remainder of the contract would be the gamble.

And given the comparable trades that were in the article I linked, it sounds like people are expecting Ekholm to net way more in trade than he actually might. It might be a deal where the Sabres get him for a 2nd and a non-elite prospect like Bloom or Nadeau. Or a 2nd and Ryan Johnson.

If the Sabres can get Ekholm for a 2nd and Ryan Johnson, that would be tough for me to turn down.